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Iowa -15 vs ISU

Pepperman

Pepperman

HB Legend
Nov 4, 2002
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i haven't seen a total yet, but I'll guess around 50 suggesting the public views it as a likely outcome of 33-17 or something like that which could realistically occur in football scoring.

Let's call it 31-17 for simplicity sake. Hmmm, sounds like a lot of points for this game.

Also given how many times I've seen Iowa coast to its first win while ISU struggles with obviously inferior competition, but then somehow ISU wins against Iowa, I'm taking the 15 points. I also hope it holds around 15 as I'd bet the money line too, probably +1000 if not higher. There is EASILY a 10% chance ISU wins this game. Pains me to admit that, but it is the single biggest game their new coach will have this year.

Hoping the Hawks cruise to 20+ point victory.
Guessing they barely win, like 20-17 (too bad that license plate is taken)
 
SDHawkDoc said:
Taking the 'clones and the 15 points sounds like a decent bet.
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***THE FOLLOWING ONLY APPLIES TO THOSE OF US WHO GAMBLE***

Especially great bet as a Hawkeye fan. If I lose this bet, my team won by 16+. If my team wins by 14 or less I win twice. If my team somehow loses outright, that sucks either way and no amount of money really helps, but at least I recognized the correc side to pick.

Yes, put me down on Iowa State +15. It seems almost too easy, but I'll sacrifice some lettuce if so.
 
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You have to factor in that they obviously spent all summer preparing for Iowa. Even last week. No point in game planning for Northern Iowa when your Super Bowl is the following week.
 
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I got a $1000,00 cash bet plus bragging rights with a co-worker who is the biggest ISU trash talker you would meet riding on this game. Iowa better show up to play.
 
Mizzy1983 said:
I got a $1000,00 cash bet plus bragging rights with a co-worker who is the biggest ISU trash talker you would meet riding on this game. Iowa better show up to play.
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I hope that's spread or he is the dumbest ISU fan on the planet?

Note I also don't believe this story.
 
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The Clones nearly always play Iowa tough.

But, Miami > ISU. Hawks will improve. Not sure ISU will. Just my feeling but I think the Hawkeyes will roll.

I don't gamble, however, so no money where my mouth is, sorry in advance.
 
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Pepperman said:
i haven't seen a total yet, but I'll guess around 50 suggesting the public views it as a likely outcome of 33-17 or something like that which could realistically occur in football scoring.

Let's call it 31-17 for simplicity sake. Hmmm, sounds like a lot of points for this game.

Also given how many times I've seen Iowa coast to its first win while ISU struggles with obviously inferior competition, but then somehow ISU wins against Iowa, I'm taking the 15 points. I also hope it holds around 15 as I'd bet the money line too, probably +1000 if not higher. There is EASILY a 10% chance ISU wins this game. Pains me to admit that, but it is the single biggest game their new coach will have this year.

Hoping the Hawks cruise to 20+ point victory.
Guessing they barely win, like 20-17 (too bad that license plate is taken)
Click to expand...
Last Saturday was the single biggest game, and he lost it.

Next Saturday is a no-lose proposition; Iowa is a ranked team and it's a road game. Cyclones aren't expected to do well. I could coach the team to a loss in Kinnick. Last Saturday, on the other hand, was not only his first game as head coach at ISU, but it was a home game he was expected to win. Much, much bigger game than the one next Saturday. And yes, if ISU were to somehow win at Iowa, I would swap it for a win over UNI in a hearbeat.
 
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Lone Clone said:
Last Saturday was the single biggest game, and he lost it.

Next Saturday is a no-lose proposition; Iowa is a ranked team and it's a road game. Cyclones aren't expected to do well. I could coach the team to a loss in Kinnick. Last Saturday, on the other hand, was not only his first game as head coach at ISU, but it was a home game he was expected to win. Much, much bigger game than the one next Saturday. And yes, if ISU were to somehow win at Iowa, I would swap it for a win over UNI in a hearbeat.
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I tend to agree with you Lone (there I said it). Iowa State will not be expected to win, Campbell can just get his guys ready to play and let the chips fall. The game against UNI was one where he needed to establish the culture of how he would like his team to play when the talent level is equal or his team is favored. And they didn't respond very well. Have the ball, ahead, on the + side of the 50, against a FCS opponent. Those are games you have to win.

To the game itself this week. If the Iowa defense really is as mediocre as it showed against Miami, Cyclones have a shot. Jewell playing only 1 defensive possession certainly hurt, but I was concerned about the meh effort by the front 7 the whole game.
 
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Pepperman said:
I hope that's spread or he is the dumbest ISU fan on the planet?

Note I also don't believe this story.
Click to expand...

Straight up bet and I have the cash to back it up. I never do "spread bets". Co-worker believes ISU will win 27-21. In a close one.
 
i'd like to see the history back to 2000 where Iowa has a double digit line in their favor and cover. KF had/has one of the worst in CFB in general. I think it is worse when ISWho is involved. Take the points.
 
Pepperman said:
***THE FOLLOWING ONLY APPLIES TO THOSE OF US WHO GAMBLE***

Especially great bet as a Hawkeye fan. If I lose this bet, my team won by 16+. If my team wins by 14 or less I win twice. If my team somehow loses outright, that sucks either way and no amount of money really helps, but at least I recognized the correc side to pick.

Yes, put me down on Iowa State +15. It seems almost too easy, but I'll sacrifice some lettuce if so.
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That's the philosophy I use when betting on a game involving ISU.....however, I'm not sure how I can apply it this week. I suppose I should take Iowa and give the points; that way, if ISU gets blown out, I have the solace of winning some money.

However, there is a serious, and somewhat likely, down side to this. Let's say the line is 16 by the time I bet, and I take the Hawks.....and they win by 15. I lost my money AND my team lost by more than two TDs. Not a good day.
 
DodgerHawki said:
I tend to agree with you Lone (there I said it). Iowa State will not be expected to win, Campbell can just get his guys ready to play and let the chips fall. The game against UNI was one where he needed to establish the culture of how he would like his team to play when the talent level is equal or his team is favored. And they didn't respond very well. Have the ball, ahead, on the + side of the 50, against a FCS opponent. Those are games you have to win.

To the game itself this week. If the Iowa defense really is as mediocre as it showed against Miami, Cyclones have a shot. Jewell playing only 1 defensive possession certainly hurt, but I was concerned about the meh effort by the front 7 the whole game.
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The end of the game Saturday was distressingly similar to the end of the Kansas State game last season: Three turnovers in the last six minutes of a game ISU was in a solid position to win. Last year was worse because ISU had clearly outplayed the Wildcats all afternoon and had a significant lead before the meltdown, but Saturday was bad.

My guys are leading with about 7 minutes to play, have just ripped off two nice runs and have second-and-four in Panther territory. UNI has just one timeout left and hasn't been able to throw the ball all night. Seems prudent to just be conservative, use clock, and if necessary, let them have the ball deep in their own territory with a couple of minutes left. But instead, ISU throws a pass 30 yards out to the right. The only player within 20 yards of the ball -- and I am NOT exaggerating -- was the UNI defensive back. Obviously, the receiver and the QB had a different idea of what was supposed to happen. But my question was: Why throw that pass?
 
I never bet on the Iowa games. I found out, quickly, that it takes the fun out of the game. On the other hand, I would like to get some of that straight up bet mentioned earlier.
 
This one will be won at the line of scrimmage and look for Iowa to push ISU around. I think the Hawks will have both Daniels and Wadley go over 100 yards rushing each. Iowa takes it 35-13
 
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Hawk8595 said:
I never bet on the Iowa games. I found out, quickly, that it takes the fun out of the game. On the other hand, I would like to get some of that straight up bet mentioned earlier.
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The last Iowa game I put money on was the 2003 Orange Bowl, after that I said never again. Although the Hawks made me a lot of money in 2002.
 
Lone Clone said:
The end of the game Saturday was distressingly similar to the end of the Kansas State game last season: Three turnovers in the last six minutes of a game ISU was in a solid position to win. Last year was worse because ISU had clearly outplayed the Wildcats all afternoon and had a significant lead before the meltdown, but Saturday was bad.

My guys are leading with about 7 minutes to play, have just ripped off two nice runs and have second-and-four in Panther territory. UNI has just one timeout left and hasn't been able to throw the ball all night. Seems prudent to just be conservative, use clock, and if necessary, let them have the ball deep in their own territory with a couple of minutes left. But instead, ISU throws a pass 30 yards out to the right. The only player within 20 yards of the ball -- and I am NOT exaggerating -- was the UNI defensive back. Obviously, the receiver and the QB had a different idea of what was supposed to happen. But my question was: Why throw that pass?
Click to expand...

I thought it was a horrible call to throw it there too, but it would seem like Campbell was trying to prove his moxie and put UNI away rather than just win the game in a more conventional manner
 
Mizzy1983 said:
I got a $1000,00 cash bet plus bragging rights with a co-worker who is the biggest ISU trash talker you would meet riding on this game. Iowa better show up to play.
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Mizzy1983 said:
Straight up bet and I have the cash to back it up. I never do "spread bets". Co-worker believes ISU will win 27-21. In a close one.
Click to expand...

If your ISU co-worker is interested tell him I'll take the same bet and give him 2:1 odds. Does he work in the mail room?
 
Pepperman said:
i haven't seen a total yet, but I'll guess around 50 suggesting the public views it as a likely outcome of 33-17 or something like that which could realistically occur in football scoring.

Let's call it 31-17 for simplicity sake. Hmmm, sounds like a lot of points for this game.

Also given how many times I've seen Iowa coast to its first win while ISU struggles with obviously inferior competition, but then somehow ISU wins against Iowa, I'm taking the 15 points. I also hope it holds around 15 as I'd bet the money line too, probably +1000 if not higher. There is EASILY a 10% chance ISU wins this game. Pains me to admit that, but it is the single biggest game their new coach will have this year.

Hoping the Hawks cruise to 20+ point victory.
Guessing they barely win, like 20-17 (too bad that license plate is taken)
Click to expand...

I watched ISU/UNI.

To the entire board: Does Miami look better than ISU? To me they did.

Therefore, I am thinking this could be a 52-17 type game; ISU is pretty bad and I think "New Kirk" is not going to mess around and Brian Ferentz is gong to encourage running the ball down ISU's throats

At the end of ISU/UNI, UNI was dominating the line of scrimmage; that was rather stunning to me, that an FCS team was dominating an FBS team on their home turf; I hope Saturday's game gets just as fugly for ISU
 
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Pepperman said:
i haven't seen a total yet, but I'll guess around 50 suggesting the public views it as a likely outcome of 33-17 or something like that which could realistically occur in football scoring.

Let's call it 31-17 for simplicity sake. Hmmm, sounds like a lot of points for this game.

Also given how many times I've seen Iowa coast to its first win while ISU struggles with obviously inferior competition, but then somehow ISU wins against Iowa, I'm taking the 15 points. I also hope it holds around 15 as I'd bet the money line too, probably +1000 if not higher. There is EASILY a 10% chance ISU wins this game. Pains me to admit that, but it is the single biggest game their new coach will have this year.

Hoping the Hawks cruise to 20+ point victory.
Guessing they barely win, like 20-17 (too bad that license plate is taken)
Click to expand...


-15 is like -5 and -8 in NFL. Those spreads indicate themail odds makers have no idea.
 
Lone Clone said:
Cyclone fans don't usually tend to call themselves Clown fans. But nice try. Again.
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I started doing that about a year ago to take the wind out of the sails of that "hawk" fan who was posting obsessively about Iowa State. Herky something or other.

Regardless, I grew up in Eastern Iowa with two older siblings being ISU grads. There wasn't a choice who to follow in my household, and it was a tough row to hoe, so to speak.
 
Pepperman said:
***THE FOLLOWING ONLY APPLIES TO THOSE OF US WHO GAMBLE***

Especially great bet as a Hawkeye fan. If I lose this bet, my team won by 16+. If my team wins by 14 or less I win twice. If my team somehow loses outright, that sucks either way and no amount of money really helps, but at least I recognized the correc side to pick.

Yes, put me down on Iowa State +15. It seems almost too easy, but I'll sacrifice some lettuce if so.
Click to expand...

This is called an emotional hedge. Competitively, you are a coward and overall this is just bad karma.
 
BeepBeepInMyJeep said:
This is called an emotional hedge. Competitively, you are a coward and overall this is just bad karma.
Click to expand...

What about the fact that I really don't think Iowa will win by 16 or more? That's the reason for the bet. Call me whatever you wish, but I tend to know Iowa and their tendencies more than any other team. If you're going to bet, at least be sure you understand the situations. Past does matter in this game as both teams will get into "here we go again" mode if it starts close.

I'd love to be wrong though.
 
nu2u said:
If your ISU co-worker is interested tell him I'll take the same bet and give him 2:1 odds. Does he work in the mail room?
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The ISU co-worker does side work into real estate and rentals. Makes a ton of money monthly on top of his regular job. Likes to gamble big time. Hopefully Iowa smokes em' to shut him up. He would make some of the biggest trash talkers on the clown board look like chumps. Only diff is I have to hear about it at work all the time.
 
Phenomenally Frantastic said:
i'd like to see the history back to 2000 where Iowa has a double digit line in their favor and cover. KF had/has one of the worst in CFB in general. I think it is worse when ISWho is involved. Take the points.
Click to expand...

Just the CyHawk games...
2004: Iowa -20.5; ISU covered (7)
2006: Iowa -14; ISU covered (10)
2007: Iowa -17.5; ISU won
2008: Iowa -13; ISU covered (12; thanks, intentional safety)
2010: Iowa -12; Iowa covered (28)
2014: Iowa -12.5; ISU won

Since 1998, the history of this game says ISU (13-5 ATS) and the under. The only overs were 2002, 2003, and 2011 (3OT).
 
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ISUChip said:
Since 1998, the history of this game says ISU (13-5 ATS) and the under. The only overs were 2002, 2003, and 2011 (3OT).
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That's what my gut said right away - UNDER whatever it is (I am on record expecting a total line of ~50) and take the points. Thanks for compiling the stats.
 
Taking isu and the points is the historically best bet.
KF teams have beaten the 'clones by 3 TDs or more only twice. Iowa is likely to win, but not in a beat down.


As to miami being better than isu, I'm not convinced. miami was picked near the bottom of the mac. Maybe they'll exceed those expectations. However, the Iowa defense was unimpressive. And that's being generous.
 
ISUChip said:
Just the CyHawk games...
2004: Iowa -20.5; ISU covered (7)
2006: Iowa -14; ISU covered (10)
2007: Iowa -17.5; ISU won
2008: Iowa -13; ISU covered (12; thanks, intentional safety)
2010: Iowa -12; Iowa covered (28)
2014: Iowa -12.5; ISU won

Since 1998, the history of this game says ISU (13-5 ATS) and the under. The only overs were 2002, 2003, and 2011 (3OT).
Click to expand...

This is exactly why many Iowa fans hold the whole superbowl theory, even if many of those seasons it turned out that Iowa wasn't all that good.
 
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I understand that recent history says bet on ISU. I understand that the Iowa D did not live up to expectations on Saturday. I understand that in rivalry games it is smart money to take double digit points, however it sounds like ISU is legendarily bad this year. From people I have spoken to that were there or saw it on TV it seems ISU has one of the worst Olines since the Walden era and might not win a game all year.

I am not as worried about the Iowa D as most are. They sure did not look like the D we say last year, but I think some of that can be explained by the loss of the Outlaw, Hesse and a team with a 28 point lead who sat back in a cover 2 with no stunts or blitzes the entire 2nd half.

Iowa 38-10
 
gojojo said:
From people I have spoken to that were there or saw it on TV it seems ISU has one of the worst Olines since the Walden era and might not win a game all year.
Click to expand...

Their line was terrible. Pretty damning that they had basically zero success running the ball against an FCS team.
 
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