I'll hold my judgement until we play some teams with a pulse.
There is no evidence to suggest that Iowa will play top 1/2 of the big ten defense.
Iowa defense ranked #91 per KenPom (as of Fri Dec 27). Was #61 on Dec 2
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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There is no evidence to suggest that Iowa will play top 1/2 of the big ten defense.
Different team , some different skills but imo , rebounding is still going to be the key. Hawkeyes need to do better still at that.
Well, I’m holding judgment too, but to say there is no evidence is obtuse.
I mentioned this elsewhere but it's worth bringing up here as well. There are some statistical anomalies with the defense right now:
They are forcing turnovers on 23.3% of opponents' possessions (16th in the country).
Their opponents FT Rate (FTA/FGA) is only 0.202 (6th in the country).
They are allowing their opponents to shoot 26.9% from three point range (21st in the country).
Will the turnover forcing and three point defense continue against better competition? How long will Traore be out and how devastating will his injury be to our defense?
There are also some defensive categories where we've been terrible:
Our opponents are collecting offensive rebounds on 30.8% of their misses (219th in the country) and making 54.8% of their two point attempts (279th in the country).
Both of those numbers are very disturbing when one factors in the quality of opponents we have played. The two point defense is particularly weird because we are blocking 14.3% of our opponents' two point attempts (32nd nationally). Shot blocking and two point defense correlate with each other so we are currently a major outlier there. Is this a fluke? Can it be fixed? Personally, I think that when Freeman is around the basket, he's a very effective rim protector but there are too many plays where he is away from the basket - the other team sets a ball screen, Freeman hedges hard, the opposing guard gets past him (often splitting bt Freeman and the screener), and now Freeman is trailing the play and we don't have anything defensively at the rim. I'd like to see us try drop coverage with Freeman on ball screens instead of the hedging.
They are forcing turnovers on 23.3% of opponents' possessions (16th in the country).
Their opponents FT Rate (FTA/FGA) is only 0.202 (6th in the country).
They are allowing their opponents to shoot 26.9% from three point range (21st in the country).
Will the turnover forcing and three point defense continue against better competition? How long will Traore be out and how devastating will his injury be to our defense?
There are also some defensive categories where we've been terrible:
Our opponents are collecting offensive rebounds on 30.8% of their misses (219th in the country) and making 54.8% of their two point attempts (279th in the country).
Both of those numbers are very disturbing when one factors in the quality of opponents we have played. The two point defense is particularly weird because we are blocking 14.3% of our opponents' two point attempts (32nd nationally). Shot blocking and two point defense correlate with each other so we are currently a major outlier there. Is this a fluke? Can it be fixed? Personally, I think that when Freeman is around the basket, he's a very effective rim protector but there are too many plays where he is away from the basket - the other team sets a ball screen, Freeman hedges hard, the opposing guard gets past him (often splitting bt Freeman and the screener), and now Freeman is trailing the play and we don't have anything defensively at the rim. I'd like to see us try drop coverage with Freeman on ball screens instead of the hedging.
Dec 22 Update:
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #93
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #93
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
Think Traore being out is part of that?
No, I think Fran never putting a real emphasis on defense and rebounding for nearly 2 decades is ALL of that
Well I certainly think if he was playing more our defense would be better. But I don’t like where this whole thing looks to be heading after that weird press conference. We’ve seen guys get on the bad side of Fran and it’s tumultuous from there. We will need him moving forward in the league. We need athletic wings.
Don't disagree - tho they've usually held their own better than this year on the boards overall.
There has been an emphasis placed on the defense this year however - players talked about it during the offseason and frankly even our current rankings are loads better than they've been the past few years.
Despite protestations, Naysayers like to hear good defensive numbers for Fran, because it would be a change. , Unfortunately trend for now is opposite and being in 90's or worse ranked on defense is not a recipe for success. Going small with Payton Sandfort at the PF and two PGs is good for offense, not so good for rebounding/defense. Iowa is a solid, middle of the pack B1G team. Getting Traore back would help. Maybe they improve and make the NCAA tournament.
Idk…sometimes I wonder. You say ANYTHING good about Fran and some posters will immediately jump on you for it.
There are 364 teams, so top 100 on defense is top 26%. That seems pretty good to me. Of course, I love defense and rebounding, so I would love to see Iowa improve even more in both of those areas. By the eye test, the biggest problem with the defense seems to be inconsistency. Iowa will play 5 or 6 minutes of great defense, and then they'll start giving up backdoor cuts and baseline drives and other easy buckets for a while. Certainly the rotations account for some of this, but it seems to go beyond that. Bottom line for me: Thelwell, Harding, Dix, Dembele and others are working harder on defense, and it's paying off. And the players must realize that defense, being mostly effort, is the easiest and quickest way for the team to succeed.
And if Traore can come back healthy and Freeman can get after it on the glass like he did last night, the rebounding can vastly improve as well.
This team can continue to improve, and I think they will. The Hawkeyes could surprise people the rest of the way.
Iowa State seems to have a pulse, and Iowa's defense against the #3 team in the country was good enough to keep the Hawkeyes in the lead for 37 minutes. Iowa missed a 3 at the buzzer that would have beaten #24 Michigan, so the defense wasn't terrible in Ann Arbor. Could the defense improve? Yes, but again, Iowa is top 26% in the country, so improvement has been made. The real question is will Iowa continue to be aggressive and energized on defense, and more consistently, in the BIG? I think they will because I think they have enough players who understand that success depends on defense and, yes, rebounding. And not only do the players get that, but I think they have enough talent and enough energy to play the kind of defense they need to play to win.
I think it's a major factor. In the three games Traore has played against high major-ish competition, the defense has been about 0.05 points per possession better when he's been on the floor.
I think a lot of it will depend on what happens with Traore. If he can give us 20ish minutes per game at the 4, I think we've got a shot at a top-80 defense. Otherwise, I think we're gonna get gashed pretty bad, especially if we keep on having Freeman hedge out so far against ball screens.
Bad is relative here - even if we hang around the 100s that's still loads better than previous years.
The lack of focus on defense by Fran is somewhat exaggerated tho - the 1st half of his tenure, particularly with Olaseni and Woodbury on campus we had very good defenses, particularly compared to now.
One of those things I've always wanted a private, off the record conversation of how much that recent focus on offense has been deliberate, due to recruiting misses/guys not developing as expected, etc.
Fran is a smart enough and competitive enough coach that I have a hard time believing that if he truly desires postseason success, that he doesn't care about defense to the extent that it has appeared the past few years - its been extremely rare the last 20 years or so especially that the eventual nat'l champs aren't top 25 in both offense and defense.
Iowa is covered up by Florida.
The horizontal numbers are Steal Percentage.
Traore's return should only help this.
The horizontal numbers are Steal Percentage.
Traore's return should only help this.
Dec 27 Update:
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #91
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
The defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Defense: #91
Offense: #20
Overall team ranking: #44 (out of 364 D1 teams)
Link: KenPom Rankings
to be fair - we actually moved up 2 spots defensively since you last posted.
thanks btw
