Iowa has a 30% chance of making the playoffs according to 538

[SanMateoHawk]

These are the guys that accurately predicted the 2012 election . . .

The article also notes that there are only four teams (Iowa being one) that can lose their next game and still have a chance of making the playoffs.

Iowa's chances of getting to the playoffs

 

[mikesright]

They use FPI. Automatic fail.

 

[millah_22]

They use FPI. Automatic fail.

Where in the article did they say they use FPI as a factor?

 

[paladinhawk]

Where in the article did they say they use FPI as a factor?

If you dig a little:

FPI is ESPN’s Football Power Index. We consider it the best predictor of future college games so that’s the role it plays in the model: if we say Team A has a 72 percent chance of beating Team B, that prediction is derived from FPI. Technically speaking, we’re using a simplified version of FPI that accounts for only each team’s current rating and home field advantage; the FPI-based predictons you see on ESPN.com may differ slightly because they also account for travel distance and days of rest.

Overall a 30% chance sounds pretty good to me.

 

[GPRHAWK]

60% chance of beating Nebraska + 50% chance of winning B1G Championship game = 30% chance of making the playoffs. Sounds about right although I'd probably put the Nebraska game at closer to 50% than 60%.

 

[MauiHawk]

Now up to 39% chance of making the CFP according to 538. They're giving MSU 62% chance of beating Iowa. Interesting how close this is to the FPI estimate of 63.6%. By deduction, 538 is giving us a 1% chance of making the CFP if we lose to MSU. OSU is still given twice the probability of winning the title that we are (6% vs 3%)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...college-football-playoff-predictions-week-13/

 

[swihawk]

Now up to 39% chance of making the CFP according to 538. They're giving MSU 62% chance of beating Iowa. Interesting how close this is to the FPI estimate of 63.6%. By deduction, 538 is giving us a 1% chance of making the CFP if we lose to MSU. OSU is still given twice the probability of winning the title that we are (6% vs 3%)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...college-football-playoff-predictions-week-13/

I like this computer better....

http://myteamsbetter.com/#COMPARE_TEAMS?teamPK1=312&teamPK2=416&year1=2015&year2=2015&statView=Key Stats&compareOption=ALL_OPPONENTS

Iowa 52% chance of beating MSU. Beating MSU = 100% chance of making the playoffs.

 

[MauiHawk]

Actually, after reading more of the 538 article, it sounds like 538 actually uses FPI to project winners.

EDIT: I should have read the rest of this thread first :/

 

[MauiHawk]

I like this computer better....

http://myteamsbetter.com/#COMPARE_TEAMS?teamPK1=312&teamPK2=416&year1=2015&year2=2015&statView=Key Stats&compareOption=ALL_OPPONENTS

Iowa 52% chance of beating MSU. Beating MSU = 100% chance of making the playoffs.

Interesting that site puts MSU SOS at #13 and ours at #72... substantially different numbers than I've seen elsewhere.

 

[soybean]

Actually, after reading more of the 538 article, it sounds like 538 actually uses FPI to project winners.

EDIT: I should have read the rest of this thread first :/

Yeah because IIRC when Iowa was 7-0 538 predicted a less than 2% chance Iowa would go undefeated.

 

[hawkedoff]

If you put enough predictions out there eventually you will be right