Iowa in the NCAAs

[Bucky712]

I don't post on the forum much, but do follow the PbP threads when I can. Big win by Ayala. My question is what is Iowa's true ceiling at the NCAA Tournament? I think we still have a shot at Penn State, no? This is what I found on Wrestlingstat for Iowa's tournament points. For all I know there could be a better website for it, I don't know. Thoughts? Also, I think Kaleb Young will get better as the season rolls on, he has to.

 

[IAChief32]

I don't post on the forum much, but do follow the PbP threads when I can. Big win by Ayala. My question is what is Iowa's true ceiling at the NCAA Tournament? I think we still have a shot at Penn State, no? This is what I found on Wrestlingstat for Iowa's tournament points. For all I know there could be a better website for it, I don't know. Thoughts? Also, I think Kaleb Young will get better as the season rolls on, he has to.

It's doable but an uphill climb. A healthy Spencer would probably garner us 25+ points. Can Drake make up 10-15 of that and out place Hildebrandt? Also, Iowa has been living on bonus. So the guys that got us there last year were Lee, Desanto, Eierman, Kemerer and Cass. Can they do it again? Think our title is going to hinge on 125, 165 and 184...we got almost no points out of Marinelli due to his injury and no production out of Brands. 165 is going to be a war for Alex (everybody knows his NCAA history) and hoping for a 5-8 finish for Abe. To a lesser extent, 157 and 197 are tossups on whether they AA but both have had those questions going into NCAAs and have done it twice.

 

[wasdt21]

warner never not made AA, i don't see him as a toss-up.

 

[Kidwicked]

I don’t care what wrestlestat or any other website says. No way Iowa isn’t the favorite still. With Ayala and Kemerer in your lineup you will be hard to beat with your top to bottom production. I’ll prolly get torched by my fellow PSU fans and non Iowa fans in general, but I don’t think 9 All-Americans is completely unrealistic, and if Murin has a great tournament 10 is possible. You could realistically say based on how Assad is wrestling he’s gonna make a solid push to AA, and with their past results so are Young and Warner. Leaving only Murin as a question mark.


125: Ayala vs Hilderbrandt- less than 2pts net either way would be my guess. I’ll call it even, both score same points.

133: ADS vs RBY- With Desanto’s bonus rate in early rounds and, past performances in the consi rounds I will say on placement alone PSU +2 Points

141: Eierman vs Lee - Eierman hasn’t blown the doors off anyone, but he’s cagey and will figure it out. Again on placement alone. PSU +2 points

149: Murin vs Bartlett- Murin is looking better every match. Bartlett is very solid, but small for the weight. I think Murin has the edge here. Iowa + 4pts

157: Young vs Berge - Young has struggled with a tough schedule early on, but past performance would say he figures it out. Berge is a big question mark but don’t see him out scoring or out placing Young. Iowa + 4pts

165: Bull vs Edsell- Bad luck and past aside this is a big point weight for Iowa. Iowa +14

174: Kemerer vs Starocci- Kemerer looking like himself, but I believe Starocci jumped levels as well. Based on last year alone PSU +2

184: Assad vs Brooks- Assad looking better and better, but Brooks is just tough. PSU +10

197: Warner vs Dean- Warner looking like Warner, but he always seems to get to the podium. Dean with a slight edge. PSU +4

HWT: Cass vs Kerk - Cassioppi looking solid as always, Kerk looks healthy and better than he did last year. Based on past alone. Iowa +2

I personally think Iowa holds roughly a 4pt advantage still. As always it’s gonna come down to who’s horses can score more bonus points. We’re all gonna win as fans though, because I could honestly see the team race coming down to Cassioppi vs Kerk in the consi finals.

 

[ping72]

Ceiling is absolutely 1st. You can debate how likely it is they reach it, but anyone who says it’s impossible is being silly.

And that is as things are right now. Still lots of time for injuries, covid, etc to impact things.

 

[MVPFAN]

I don't post on the forum much, but do follow the PbP threads when I can. Big win by Ayala. My question is what is Iowa's true ceiling at the NCAA Tournament? I think we still have a shot at Penn State, no? This is what I found on Wrestlingstat for Iowa's tournament points. For all I know there could be a better website for it, I don't know. Thoughts? Also, I think Kaleb Young will get better as the season rolls on, he has to.

PSU clearly favored now.

 

[1032004]

I don’t care what wrestlestat or any other website says. No way Iowa isn’t the favorite still. With Ayala and Kemerer in your lineup you will be hard to beat with your top to bottom production. I’ll prolly get torched by my fellow PSU fans and non Iowa fans in general, but I don’t think 9 All-Americans is completely unrealistic, and if Murin has a great tournament 10 is possible. You could realistically say based on how Assad is wrestling he’s gonna make a solid push to AA, and with their past results so are Young and Warner. Leaving only Murin as a question mark.


125: Ayala vs Hilderbrandt- less than 2pts net either way would be my guess. I’ll call it even, both score same points.

133: ADS vs RBY- With Desanto’s bonus rate in early rounds and, past performances in the consi rounds I will say on placement alone PSU +2 Points

141: Eierman vs Lee - Eierman hasn’t blown the doors off anyone, but he’s cagey and will figure it out. Again on placement alone. PSU +2 points

149: Murin vs Bartlett- Murin is looking better every match. Bartlett is very solid, but small for the weight. I think Murin has the edge here. Iowa + 4pts

157: Young vs Berge - Young has struggled with a tough schedule early on, but past performance would say he figures it out. Berge is a big question mark but don’t see him out scoring or out placing Young. Iowa + 4pts

165: Bull vs Edsell- Bad luck and past aside this is a big point weight for Iowa. Iowa +14

174: Kemerer vs Starocci- Kemerer looking like himself, but I believe Starocci jumped levels as well. Based on last year alone PSU +2

184: Assad vs Brooks- Assad looking better and better, but Brooks is just tough. PSU +10

197: Warner vs Dean- Warner looking like Warner, but he always seems to get to the podium. Dean with a slight edge. PSU +4

HWT: Cass vs Kerk - Cassioppi looking solid as always, Kerk looks healthy and better than he did last year. Based on past alone. Iowa +2

I personally think Iowa holds roughly a 4pt advantage still. As always it’s gonna come down to who’s horses can score more bonus points. We’re all gonna win as fans though, because I could honestly see the team race coming down to Cassioppi vs Kerk in the consi finals.

So you think Assad will get ~5th? Bartlett/Murin is probably closer and Bartlett may even outscore him. The rest aren’t outrageous but PSU is definitely the favorite now.

Certainly possible for Iowa to win though, but to do so they’ll probably need Eierman, Marinelli and Kemerer to win it all.

 

[Tcalumet]

I don't post on the forum much, but do follow the PbP threads when I can. Big win by Ayala. My question is what is Iowa's true ceiling at the NCAA Tournament? I think we still have a shot at Penn State, no? This is what I found on Wrestlingstat for Iowa's tournament points. For all I know there could be a better website for it, I don't know. Thoughts? Also, I think Kaleb Young will get better as the season rolls on, he has to.

We should have improved points at 165 and 184 - big point increases. Then we need 157, 125, 149 to step up and have a good tournament.

 

[Kidwicked]

So you think Assad will get ~5th? Bartlett/Murin is probably closer and Bartlett may even outscore him. The rest aren’t outrageous but PSU is definitely the favorite now.

Certainly possible for Iowa to win though, but to do so they’ll probably need Eierman, Marinelli and Kemerer to win it all.

Yes I figured Assad 5-7th. With a bonus win

 

[24 so far]

I don't post on the forum much, but do follow the PbP threads when I can. Big win by Ayala. My question is what is Iowa's true ceiling at the NCAA Tournament? I think we still have a shot at Penn State, no? This is what I found on Wrestlingstat for Iowa's tournament points. For all I know there could be a better website for it, I don't know. Thoughts? Also, I think Kaleb Young will get better as the season rolls on, he has to.

Their ceiling is 1st. We aren't the favorites but we're not out of it either.

 

[Chips28]

Not sure why Michigan isn’t being considered. They can give Iowa or PSU a run

 

[IRONBIRD]

We lose points at 125 no matter how well Ayala does. I believe he can keep pace though.

133 We need Desanto to break through

141 Eierman get outa his funk and do his thing!

149 Murin have a good showing at B1G and GRIND!

157 Young- get the job done and AA

165 Has to be the year of the BULL! WIN this thing!!!

174 KemDawg stay healthy and get to finals maybe play the same game as starocci and pick his spots to score and win

184 Assad looking tough and should get us an increase in points

197 Warner- keep showing up at the B1G/BIG show and get it done.

Heavy, Big Cass high AA with bonus, possible finals?

We have potential to gain a lot of points at 165 and 184. We also could gain points at every other weight but 125. I understand that some weights it will be a tough road, but it can be done.

F*** st has less weights to improve points, but 125, 197, and Heavy could see a good amount of improvement. Match ups, seeding, being healthy, etc..... should be fun!

 

[24 so far]

Not sure why Michigan isn’t being considered. They can give Iowa or PSU a run

Ain't no doubt about it.

 

[el dub]

So you think Assad will get ~5th? Bartlett/Murin is probably closer and Bartlett may even outscore him. The rest aren’t outrageous but PSU is definitely the favorite now.

Certainly possible for Iowa to win though, but to do so they’ll probably need Eierman, Marinelli and Kemerer to win it all.

Iowa hasn’t had three champs in ages. I don’t think that’s necessary to win it all this year.

 

[js8793]

I don’t care what wrestlestat or any other website says. No way Iowa isn’t the favorite still. With Ayala and Kemerer in your lineup you will be hard to beat with your top to bottom production. I’ll prolly get torched by my fellow PSU fans and non Iowa fans in general, but I don’t think 9 All-Americans is completely unrealistic, and if Murin has a great tournament 10 is possible. You could realistically say based on how Assad is wrestling he’s gonna make a solid push to AA, and with their past results so are Young and Warner. Leaving only Murin as a question mark.


125: Ayala vs Hilderbrandt- less than 2pts net either way would be my guess. I’ll call it even, both score same points.

133: ADS vs RBY- With Desanto’s bonus rate in early rounds and, past performances in the consi rounds I will say on placement alone PSU +2 Points

141: Eierman vs Lee - Eierman hasn’t blown the doors off anyone, but he’s cagey and will figure it out. Again on placement alone. PSU +2 points

149: Murin vs Bartlett- Murin is looking better every match. Bartlett is very solid, but small for the weight. I think Murin has the edge here. Iowa + 4pts

157: Young vs Berge - Young has struggled with a tough schedule early on, but past performance would say he figures it out. Berge is a big question mark but don’t see him out scoring or out placing Young. Iowa + 4pts

165: Bull vs Edsell- Bad luck and past aside this is a big point weight for Iowa. Iowa +14

174: Kemerer vs Starocci- Kemerer looking like himself, but I believe Starocci jumped levels as well. Based on last year alone PSU +2

184: Assad vs Brooks- Assad looking better and better, but Brooks is just tough. PSU +10

197: Warner vs Dean- Warner looking like Warner, but he always seems to get to the podium. Dean with a slight edge. PSU +4

HWT: Cass vs Kerk - Cassioppi looking solid as always, Kerk looks healthy and better than he did last year. Based on past alone. Iowa +2

I personally think Iowa holds roughly a 4pt advantage still. As always it’s gonna come down to who’s horses can score more bonus points. We’re all gonna win as fans though, because I could honestly see the team race coming down to Cassioppi vs Kerk in the consi finals.

some good analysis but one major disagreement. no way you can say +4 for murin right now. that’s his career ncaa point total and bartlett has the better win this year. that’s a push imo. very similar guys who could place or make an early exit because everything is a 1 takedown match. i think young would probably be +2 for me and if berge looks like his usual self that might be +2 for psu. both 6-r12 type guys.

i also think psu’s big guns are much surer things than iowa’s at this point. will eierman get it together? will marinelli break through in an insane weight? will kem stay healthy? i feel very confident that RBY, Lee, Starocci, and Brooks will be top 3.

 

[Tcalumet]

Not sure why Michigan isn’t being considered. They can give Iowa or PSU a run

I think they help take out Brookes

 

[blcoach80]

PSU is the favorite by about as much as we were before the Lee news at this point. I wouldn't worry to much about it right now as you can expect to see something change in the top 3's lineups between now and NCAA's and one stud going down can knock any of the 3 from first to third in a heartbeat. Hopefully Iowa has already had all our bad injury news as we can't overcome another stud going down imo. One guy ends up not going for PSU between 125, 133, 141, 174, 184, 197, and HWT and this race becomes a 3 -way dead heat and we already know all too well that injuries happen. I am more concerned that we don't lose anyone else between now and March than what Michigan and PSU do.

 

[1032004]

Iowa hasn’t had three champs in ages. I don’t think that’s necessary to win it all this year.

You mean 2010, which was the last time before last year they won the team title?

Yes, it's theoretically possible they can win without 3 champs, but they'd need a lot of help from PSU which doesn't usually happen at NCAA's.

 

[redghost1974]

I'd love to see our guys crowned as individuals, but I'll take a Minny type natty. PSU has several top end, but their holes are big gaping holes. Comes down to seating and bonus.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

warner never not made AA, i don't see him as a toss-up.

I would love to agree with you but if you wrestle every match for one TD (like Warner does), at NCAAs one slip and you’re wrestling in the consolations. And once there anything is possible. Remember the ISU kid who beat Warner a few weeks ago…that’s the stuff that can happen when you have no offense. I think Bastida was ranked 16th at the time. With the way he’s wrestles this year, I can see Warner finish in the top 3 or just off the podium. He has zero offense for the most part regardless of the opponent.

 

[artradley]

I'd love to see our guys crowned as individuals, but I'll take a Minny type natty. PSU has several top end, but their holes are big gaping holes. Comes down to seating and bonus.

Problem is, a gaping hole isn’t much worse than a tough kid who barely misses AA.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

I don’t care what wrestlestat or any other website says. No way Iowa isn’t the favorite still. With Ayala and Kemerer in your lineup you will be hard to beat with your top to bottom production. I’ll prolly get torched by my fellow PSU fans and non Iowa fans in general, but I don’t think 9 All-Americans is completely unrealistic, and if Murin has a great tournament 10 is possible. You could realistically say based on how Assad is wrestling he’s gonna make a solid push to AA, and with their past results so are Young and Warner. Leaving only Murin as a question mark.


125: Ayala vs Hilderbrandt- less than 2pts net either way would be my guess. I’ll call it even, both score same points.

133: ADS vs RBY- With Desanto’s bonus rate in early rounds and, past performances in the consi rounds I will say on placement alone PSU +2 Points

141: Eierman vs Lee - Eierman hasn’t blown the doors off anyone, but he’s cagey and will figure it out. Again on placement alone. PSU +2 points

149: Murin vs Bartlett- Murin is looking better every match. Bartlett is very solid, but small for the weight. I think Murin has the edge here. Iowa + 4pts

157: Young vs Berge - Young has struggled with a tough schedule early on, but past performance would say he figures it out. Berge is a big question mark but don’t see him out scoring or out placing Young. Iowa + 4pts

165: Bull vs Edsell- Bad luck and past aside this is a big point weight for Iowa. Iowa +14

174: Kemerer vs Starocci- Kemerer looking like himself, but I believe Starocci jumped levels as well. Based on last year alone PSU +2

184: Assad vs Brooks- Assad looking better and better, but Brooks is just tough. PSU +10

197: Warner vs Dean- Warner looking like Warner, but he always seems to get to the podium. Dean with a slight edge. PSU +4

HWT: Cass vs Kerk - Cassioppi looking solid as always, Kerk looks healthy and better than he did last year. Based on past alone. Iowa +2

I personally think Iowa holds roughly a 4pt advantage still. As always it’s gonna come down to who’s horses can score more bonus points. We’re all gonna win as fans though, because I could honestly see the team race coming down to Cassioppi vs Kerk in the consi finals.

I think Kerk will beat Parris so don’t see Cass having a 2-point advantage over Kerk. And I think this will be decided well before the HWT cons. If PSU wrestles NCAAs like last year, they win. If Iowa wrestles NCAAs like they did during B10s last year, I think they win even without Spencer. Iowa must have NCAA champs (at least 2 if not 3) the way PSU’s team has come together. We have to take out their champs from last year.

 

[Exo]

I think Kerk will beat Parris so don’t see Cass having a 2-point advantage over Kerk. And I think this will be decided well before the HWT cons. If PSU wrestles NCAAs like last year, they win. If Iowa wrestles NCAAs like they did during B10s last year, I think they win even without Spencer. Iowa must have NCAA champs (at least 2 if not 3) the way PSU’s team has come together. We have to take out their champs from last year.

What evidence is there of this? Gut feeling?

 

[HawkeyeBill]

iS Brands injured or just beaten out in his weight?

 

[pumpdog20]

Iowa has a chance because Ok St, Cornell, Michigan are going to help keep the scoring tight.

In the end though, losing Lee will be the difference in Iowa not holding off PSU.

 

[johnyt9]

I think Kerk will beat Parris so don’t see Cass having a 2-point advantage over Kerk. And I think this will be decided well before the HWT cons. If PSU wrestles NCAAs like last year, they win. If Iowa wrestles NCAAs like they did during B10s last year, I think they win even without Spencer. Iowa must have NCAA champs (at least 2 if not 3) the way PSU’s team has come together. We have to take out their champs from last year.

imagine Kerk beats Parris. and Tony and Kerk are on the same side of the bracket with Mason and Gable on the other. Probably won't happen. but a nice scenario for us

 

[johnyt9]

iS Brands injured or just beaten out in his weight?

I think hes injured. he was in street clothes against purdue

 

[artradley]

iS Brands injured or just beaten out in his weight?

Someone posted he had Tommy John surgery.

 

[moug]

Someone posted he had Tommy John surgery.

That was Patricia, same person who tweeted Kemerer was done for the year/career the same day.

 

[bluroptimo]

I don’t envy PSU right now… the mid season move-ins, career-ending concussions-Berge’s come back, putting Beard on layaway… no offense Beard or Malvern I’m a big fan of both.

But but but… do that kind of stuff too often and you end up with a lot of but’s after your name.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

imagine Kerk beats Parris. and Tony and Kerk are on the same side of the bracket with Mason and Gable on the other. Probably won't happen. but a nice scenario for us

If those four are all on the same side of the bracket that will be criminal and someone should be sent to NCAA prison. I can't imagine more than one or maybe two heavies that can beat any of them? So for them to all be on the same side of the bracket that would mean, 1, 4, 5, 8? I'm not seeing it. Would have been nice to see Kerk wrestle Schultz at the duals. But regardless, I'm just not seeing it. Schultz' best wins going back to last year were Kerk and Gremmel at NCAAs, and that was a much different Kerk. Also, Cass beat Schultz twice last year at NCAAs. Again, all four on the same side of the bracket...criminal.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

I don’t envy PSU right now… the mid season move-ins, career-ending concussions-Berge’s come back, putting Beard on layaway… no offense Beard or Malvern I’m a big fan of both.

But but but… do that kind of stuff too often and you end up with a lot of but’s after your name.

Concur. Will be hard for young P4P studs to get overly fired up at the thought of going to PSU when previous studs were pushed aside for portal transfers. And I'm not badmouthing portal transfers as we've achieved success that way as well, but like you said, too often and there'll probably be some fallout...

 

[MVPFAN]

iS Brands injured or just beaten out in his weight?

His weight is 174. And he is also injured.

 

[MVPFAN]

Someone posted he had Tommy John surgery.

He is injured but I wouldn't repost Mineo tweets as fact.

 

[Scruddy]

The team race is actually very exciting at the moment and Iowa could certainly win it as could Penn state and possibly Michigan. I think Ayala makes the podium, probably in the 4 to 8 range. Desanto, eirmann, kem and cass floor is around 3rd place so lots or points there. Iowa needs Marinelli to finally perform to his potential and get a repeat performance from young and Warner to last year. Murin and Assad have a chance to score points as well. This is a super solid team.

Penn state needs rby, Lee, starrocci and brooks to repeat and get solid points out of Dean and kirkvliet. 125 and 149 are the last two that could reasonably score points and even if they do its likely to be lower on the podium if not r12/16. Not a lot of room for error with their line up and they need all their "2nd tier" guys to step up.

Michigan needs at least suriano and amine to win it (which makes 184 especially important for the team race with amine back down). Mimic isn't the same at 141 and I wouldn't be surprised if he placed in the 6 to 8 range. They need all of their "2nd tier" guys to overperform to have a shot vs iowa/psu but it's still possible.

Imo Iowa is the deepest team with the most ro for slight underperformances.

 

[MVPFAN]

PSU is a solid favorite as it stands now. Point reduction from injury or a completely unexpected bed crapping by a key guy will be only way that changes.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

What evidence is there of this? Gut feeling?

I said "I think" and now you want me to provide evidence. Really? This isn't a fricking crime scene investigation; it's a prediction of a future wrestling result. But anyhow, the reason "I think" so is because I've had the opportunity to watch Kerk several times this year and from what I've seen he appears to look a little faster and a little stronger than last year and he's had a healthy year to improve. But I might be completely off the mark. I would love it if Kerk finishes 33rd at NCAAs and Cass finishes first, but that's not what I "think" is going to happen.

 

[MSU158]

I would love to agree with you but if you wrestle every match for one TD (like Warner does), at NCAAs one slip and you’re wrestling in the consolations. And once there anything is possible. Remember the ISU kid who beat Warner a few weeks ago…that’s the stuff that can happen when you have no offense. I think Bastida was ranked 16th at the time. With the way he’s wrestles this year, I can see Warner finish in the top 3 or just off the podium. He has zero offense for the most part regardless of the opponent.

You must not have watched him at NCAA's last year. He wrestled VERY well. Not all wrestlers can score double digits every match and most that try, get scored on instead. I see so many fans get stuck on "how many offensive attacks" and "boring" wrestling, but Warner is actually one of the most fundamentally sound wrestlers on the team. He just isn't designed to score in bunches. He is mainly a counter wrestler and is very solid on the mat. There is nothing wrong with that.

His real issue is more about stamina. When he can keep a strong pace for the entire match only the top few guys can beat him. Case in point, his stamina was probably the best it had ever been last NCAA's and it showed in his wrestling. I also think getting hit by the big move early against Reenan lit a fire under him.

Now, if we were trying to say he would win the whole weight, I would ABSOLUTELY agree that his style makes it hard to win 5 matches in a row at that level. However, his style is actually VERY likely to win 4 or 5 matches out of 6 or 7 to solidly place on the podium. As long as his head is fully in it, he WILL AA...

 

[Grip220]

I would love to agree with you but if you wrestle every match for one TD (like Warner does), at NCAAs one slip and you’re wrestling in the consolations. And once there anything is possible. Remember the ISU kid who beat Warner a few weeks ago…that’s the stuff that can happen when you have no offense. I think Bastida was ranked 16th at the time. With the way he’s wrestles this year, I can see Warner finish in the top 3 or just off the podium. He has zero offense for the most part regardless of the opponent.

He had a bit of luck on his side last year for sure.

 

[herkyihawks]

Weight	IOWA	Place	Points	PSU	Place	Points	Michigan	Place	Points
125​	Ayala	5th	12​	Hildebrant	6th	10​	Suriano	1st	22​
133​	Desanto	3rd	16​	RBY	2nd	18​	Ragusin	R12	2​
141​	Eierman	2nd	18​	Lee	1st	22​	Micic	4th	14​
149​	Murin	R12	2​	Bartlett	R12	2​	Mattin	1-2	1​
157​	Young	R12	2​	Berge	R12	2​	Lewan	R12	2​
165​	Marinelli	3rd	16​	Edsall	1-2	1​	C Amine	7th	8​
174​	Kemerer	3rd	16​	Starocci	2nd	18​	Massa	6th	11​
184​	Assad	7th	8​	Brooks	1st	24​	M Amine	2nd	19​
197​	Warner	5th	10​	Dean	3rd	16​	Brucki	7th	8​
285​	Cassioppi	3rd	16​	Kerkvliet	4th	15​	Parris	2nd	20​
			116​			128​			107​

This is how I currently have it. I'm sure I'll get roasted for some spots. Iowa would have 8 All Americans. I don't have Murin or Young as All Americans because I hate how they play 1-takedown roulette. Iowa also has one in the finals in this scenario.