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Iowa in the NCAAs

If those four are all on the same side of the bracket that will be criminal and someone should be sent to NCAA prison. I can't imagine more than one or maybe two heavies that can beat any of them? So for them to all be on the same side of the bracket that would mean, 1, 4, 5, 8? I'm not seeing it. Would have been nice to see Kerk wrestle Schultz at the duals. But regardless, I'm just not seeing it. Schultz' best wins going back to last year were Kerk and Gremmel at NCAAs, and that was a much different Kerk. Also, Cass beat Schultz twice last year at NCAAs. Again, all four on the same side of the bracket...criminal.
I did not say all 4 on same side. my scenario would be Gable (1), Mason (4), kerk (2), Cass (3). but Schultz will screw this up. maybe Cass ends up at 6 b/c of the Del Garbino loss
 
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WeightIOWAPlacePointsPSUPlacePointsMichiganPlacePoints
125​
Ayala5th
12​
Hildebrant6th
10​
Suriano1st
22​
133​
Desanto3rd
16​
RBY2nd
18​
RagusinR12
2​
141​
Eierman2nd
18​
Lee1st
22​
Micic4th
14​
149​
MurinR12
2​
BartlettR12
2​
Mattin1-2
1​
157​
YoungR12
2​
BergeR12
2​
LewanR12
2​
165​
Marinelli3rd
16​
Edsall1-2
1​
C Amine7th
8​
174​
Kemerer3rd
16​
Starocci2nd
18​
Massa6th
11​
184​
Assad7th
8​
Brooks1st
24​
M Amine2nd
19​
197​
Warner5th
10​
Dean3rd
16​
Brucki7th
8​
285​
Cassioppi3rd
16​
Kerkvliet4th
15​
Parris2nd
20​
116​
128​
107​

This is how I currently have it. I'm sure I'll get roasted for some spots. Iowa would have 8 All Americans. I don't have Murin or Young as All Americans because I hate how they play 1-takedown roulette. Iowa also has one in the finals in this scenario.
So who do you have winning 174
 
WeightIOWAPlacePointsPSUPlacePointsMichiganPlacePoints
125​
Ayala5th
12​
Hildebrant6th
10​
Suriano1st
22​
133​
Desanto3rd
16​
RBY2nd
18​
RagusinR12
2​
141​
Eierman2nd
18​
Lee1st
22​
Micic4th
14​
149​
MurinR12
2​
BartlettR12
2​
Mattin1-2
1​
157​
YoungR12
2​
BergeR12
2​
LewanR12
2​
165​
Marinelli3rd
16​
Edsall1-2
1​
C Amine7th
8​
174​
Kemerer3rd
16​
Starocci2nd
18​
Massa6th
11​
184​
Assad7th
8​
Brooks1st
24​
M Amine2nd
19​
197​
Warner5th
10​
Dean3rd
16​
Brucki7th
8​
285​
Cassioppi3rd
16​
Kerkvliet4th
15​
Parris2nd
20​
116​
128​
107​

This is how I currently have it. I'm sure I'll get roasted for some spots. Iowa would have 8 All Americans. I don't have Murin or Young as All Americans because I hate how they play 1-takedown roulette. Iowa also has one in the finals in this scenario.

Nothing outrageous there. Eierman looks a long ways from the finals right now and pretty early to project Ayala. We need 149, 157 and 184 to exceed current projections to have a shot.
 
I went with Mekhi. That was the toughest weight to figure out. Also I didn't want to go chalk with top seed winning everyone. Thought this would get a barometer of what things look like in the current landscape.
 
You must not have watched him at NCAA's last year. He wrestled VERY well. Not all wrestlers can score double digits every match and most that try, get scored on instead. I see so many fans get stuck on "how many offensive attacks" and "boring" wrestling, but Warner is actually one of the most fundamentally sound wrestlers on the team. He just isn't designed to score in bunches. He is mainly a counter wrestler and is very solid on the mat. There is nothing wrong with that.

His real issue is more about stamina. When he can keep a strong pace for the entire match only the top few guys can beat him. Case in point, his stamina was probably the best it had ever been last NCAA's and it showed in his wrestling. I also think getting hit by the big move early against Reenan lit a fire under him.

Now, if we were trying to say he would win the whole weight, I would ABSOLUTELY agree that his style makes it hard to win 5 matches in a row at that level. However, his style is actually VERY likely to win 4 or 5 matches out of 6 or 7 to solidly place on the podium. As long as his head is fully in it, he WILL AA...
I did watch him at NCAAs last year. And while I was watching his matches my sphincter was so tight you couldn't have pounded a needle into it with a sledge hammer. The guy keeps it close regardless of the competition as you can see from the WrestleStat information below. Against Reenan and Buchanan he had 2 or more TDs, but the rest of them were one TD matches, and all of them were close. And I'm in no way questioning his defense or his overall abilities, as he's clearly a fricking hammer. I'm just saying that with his style (low scoring, count on his defense), and last year's NCAAs is a decent example, he could finish top 3 or off the podium. Reenan's match from last year was a good example. Went to SV and could have gone either way.

��
OpponentSchoolDateEventWeightW/LByHow
#1 Amine, Myles (11 - 1)#6 Michigan03/18NCAA Championships197LDEC5 - 3
#20 Woodley, Jake (12 - 10)#18 Oklahoma03/18NCAA Championships197WDEC2 - 1
#9 Buchanan, Stephen (14 - 6)#16 Wyoming03/18NCAA Championships197WDEC6 - 3
#7 Caffey, Cameron (11 - 6)#27 Michigan State03/18NCAA Championships197WDEC4 - 1
#2 Ferrari, AJ (20 - 1)#3 Oklahoma State03/18NCAA Championships197LDEC3 - 2
#17 Davison, Lucas (9 - 5)#17 Northwestern03/18NCAA Championships197WDEC3 - 0
#26 Reenan, Nick (7 - 5)#5 North Carolina State03/18NCAA Championships197WSV-19 - 7


 
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Place points is easier to speculate, too often bonus is the deciding factor. Sliding to the backside of the bracken isn't fatal as long our guys can bonus there. Being honest, PSU has more bonus potential if one of their horses has slip up than us. But it is a long ways to March.
 
I said "I think" and now you want me to provide evidence. Really? This isn't a fricking crime scene investigation; it's a prediction of a future wrestling result. But anyhow, the reason "I think" so is because I've had the opportunity to watch Kerk several times this year and from what I've seen he appears to look a little faster and a little stronger than last year and he's had a healthy year to improve. But I might be completely off the mark. I would love it if Kerk finishes 33rd at NCAAs and Cass finishes first, but that's not what I "think" is going to happen.
JFC, relax, I was only wondering why you thought he could beat Parris. Judging by most of your takes on this board, I don't know why I cared to begin with. Sorry if my wording offended you.

After your initial pontification, you answered the question.
 
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Reactions: Nashville_Hawkeye
WeightIOWAPlacePointsPSUPlacePointsMichiganPlacePoints
125​
Ayala5th
12​
Hildebrant6th
10​
Suriano1st
22​
133​
Desanto3rd
16​
RBY2nd
18​
RagusinR12
2​
141​
Eierman2nd
18​
Lee1st
22​
Micic4th
14​
149​
MurinR12
2​
BartlettR12
2​
Mattin1-2
1​
157​
YoungR12
2​
BergeR12
2​
LewanR12
2​
165​
Marinelli3rd
16​
Edsall1-2
1​
C Amine7th
8​
174​
Kemerer3rd
16​
Starocci2nd
18​
Massa6th
11​
184​
Assad7th
8​
Brooks1st
24​
M Amine2nd
19​
197​
Warner5th
10​
Dean3rd
16​
Brucki7th
8​
285​
Cassioppi3rd
16​
Kerkvliet4th
15​
Parris2nd
20​
116​
128​
107​

This is how I currently have it. I'm sure I'll get roasted for some spots. Iowa would have 8 All Americans. I don't have Murin or Young as All Americans because I hate how they play 1-takedown roulette. Iowa also has one in the finals in this scenario.
I think these are fair assessments based on what we've seen thus far. That said, I think Kemerer is going to emulate Cory Clark and rock the house with an NCAA championship (with his shoulder brace on). I'm predicting Kem being on a mission this year and bringing home the gold. :)
 
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JFC, relax, I was only wondering why you thought he could beat Parris. Judging by most of your takes on this board, I don't know why I cared to begin with. Sorry if my wording offended you.

After your initial pontification, you answered the question.
I was kidding with you a bit brother. That said, I hope I'm wrong, but Kerk has looked really good.
 
I was kidding with you a bit brother. That said, I hope I'm wrong, but Kerk has looked really good.
He has looked good this year but I will reserve judgment until he faces a top 10 opponent. His best win is Lewis Fernandes of Cornell and he only won 5-0. He gets Parris on Jan 21 and Cass on Jan 28. Then gets Orndorff from Ohio St and Lance from Nebraska on Feb 4 and 6.
 
WeightIOWAPlacePointsPSUPlacePointsMichiganPlacePoints
125​
Ayala5th
12​
Hildebrant6th
10​
Suriano1st
22​
133​
Desanto3rd
16​
RBY2nd
18​
RagusinR12
2​
141​
Eierman2nd
18​
Lee1st
22​
Micic4th
14​
149​
MurinR12
2​
BartlettR12
2​
Mattin1-2
1​
157​
YoungR12
2​
BergeR12
2​
LewanR12
2​
165​
Marinelli3rd
16​
Edsall1-2
1​
C Amine7th
8​
174​
Kemerer3rd
16​
Starocci2nd
18​
Massa6th
11​
184​
Assad7th
8​
Brooks1st
24​
M Amine2nd
19​
197​
Warner5th
10​
Dean3rd
16​
Brucki7th
8​
285​
Cassioppi3rd
16​
Kerkvliet4th
15​
Parris2nd
20​
116​
128​
107​

He has looked good this year but I will reserve judgment until he faces a top 10 opponent. His best win is Lewis Fernandes of Cornell and he only won 5-0. He gets Parris on Jan 21 and Cass on Jan 28. Then gets Orndorff from Ohio St and Lance from Nebraska on Feb 4 and 6.
Wise on your part, my friend. Again, I was frustrated that he and Shultz didn't get it on, and hope that during B10 play these guys all go at it. I never know who's sick, injured, etc., but am pissed when the hammers don't come out to play.
 
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He has looked good this year but I will reserve judgment until he faces a top 10 opponent. His best win is Lewis Fernandes of Cornell and he only won 5-0. He gets Parris on Jan 21 and Cass on Jan 28. Then gets Orndorff from Ohio St and Lance from Nebraska on Feb 4 and 6.
That dual on Jan 21st between Penn state and Michigan is going to have so many “ducks” it’ll be crazy. Just a hunch. Two teams that like to rest starters as often as possible lol.
 
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I think Kerk will beat Parris so don’t see Cass having a 2-point advantage over Kerk. And I think this will be decided well before the HWT cons. If PSU wrestles NCAAs like last year, they win. If Iowa wrestles NCAAs like they did during B10s last year, I think they win even without Spencer. Iowa must have NCAA champs (at least 2 if not 3) the way PSU’s team has come together. We have to take out their champs from last year.
Since when? Kerk isn’t close to cass let alone parris!!
 
WeightIOWAPlacePointsPSUPlacePointsMichiganPlacePoints
125​
Ayala5th
12​
Hildebrant6th
10​
Suriano1st
22​
133​
Desanto3rd
16​
RBY2nd
18​
RagusinR12
2​
141​
Eierman2nd
18​
Lee1st
22​
Micic4th
14​
149​
MurinR12
2​
BartlettR12
2​
Mattin1-2
1​
157​
YoungR12
2​
BergeR12
2​
LewanR12
2​
165​
Marinelli3rd
16​
Edsall1-2
1​
C Amine7th
8​
174​
Kemerer3rd
16​
Starocci2nd
18​
Massa6th
11​
184​
Assad7th
8​
Brooks1st
24​
M Amine2nd
19​
197​
Warner5th
10​
Dean3rd
16​
Brucki7th
8​
285​
Cassioppi3rd
16​
Kerkvliet4th
15​
Parris2nd
20​
116​
128​
107​

This is how I currently have it. I'm sure I'll get roasted for some spots. Iowa would have 8 All Americans. I don't have Murin or Young as All Americans because I hate how they play 1-takedown roulette. Iowa also has one in the finals in this scenario.
Not bad!!
 
I agree. Just don’t understand. He got smoked by gable parris schultz and cass last year. Don’t understand why you believe that!
I’m pretty sure Kerk was the only person to take Gable down last year. When he’s healthy he’s incredible. It’ll be very interesting when he wrestles Cass this year without Cass having as much of an added weight advantage.
 
I’m pretty sure Kerk was the only person to take Gable down last year. When he’s healthy he’s incredible. It’ll be very interesting when he wrestles Cass this year without Cass having as much of an added weight advantage.
That’s fine. He got majored by cass and parris. Him and gable know each other. And Schultz beat him 14-8. He hasnt wrestled a top ten guy this year!!
 
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He has looked good this year but I will reserve judgment until he faces a top 10 opponent. His best win is Lewis Fernandes of Cornell and he only won 5-0. He gets Parris on Jan 21 and Cass on Jan 28. Then gets Orndorff from Ohio St and Lance from Nebraska on Feb 4 and 6.
Kerk wins three of these four, or more.
 
some good analysis but one major disagreement. no way you can say +4 for murin right now. that’s his career ncaa point total and bartlett has the better win this year. that’s a push imo. very similar guys who could place or make an early exit because everything is a 1 takedown match. i think young would probably be +2 for me and if berge looks like his usual self that might be +2 for psu. both 6-r12 type guys.

i also think psu’s big guns are much surer things than iowa’s at this point. will eierman get it together? will marinelli break through in an insane weight? will kem stay healthy? i feel very confident that RBY, Lee, Starocci, and Brooks will be top 3.

Bartlett and Murin are both tough guesses for me. I agree with you on either being possible to breakthrough, I just don’t see it being Bartlett. He’s tiny for the weight and is always one takedown away from getting beat. Can’t keep getting lucky. Murin has the size and horsepower to win matches Bartlett doesn’t in my opinion.
 
imagine Kerk beats Parris. and Tony and Kerk are on the same side of the bracket with Mason and Gable on the other. Probably won't happen. but a nice scenario for us

I actually said this to one of my guys today. I think it’s very possible either Cass or Kerk knock Parris off at some point.
 
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I don’t envy PSU right now… the mid season move-ins, career-ending concussions-Berge’s come back, putting Beard on layaway… no offense Beard or Malvern I’m a big fan of both.

But but but… do that kind of stuff too often and you end up with a lot of but’s after your name.


Is Cael supposed to wrestle Beard over Dean at 197 because Beard was there first ? When Dean decided to come to PSU knowing he was gonna have to earn the spot ?

Or was he supposed to say no thanks we’re good at 125 when Drew Hilderbrandt contacted Casey Cunningham over the summer expressing interest in wrestling his last year of eligibility at PSU for a chance to win a title ?

Come on fella, a coaches job is to do everything he can to win. TNT are doing the same thing as we speak, and that’s great for wrestling and us fans.
 
What has given you this indication? Parris has majored/pinned everyone not named Gable over the last like 18 months. Am I missing something? Tony hasn't shown that he's made the strides to beat Parris, imo.

I just think either a leaner, quicker Cassioppi or a healthy Kerk will get him at some point. If you are comparing results from last years Kerk to this years, In my opinion you’ll be way off. I think he’ll be a real handful for everyone not named Gable Steveson.
 
174 is sick - top 4 have all been in the finals, plus 2 champs.

Has there ever been 2 consecutive weights in history tougher than 165 and 174 this year ? I think you could pretty easily say between the 2 weights 8 different guys could win it.
 
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165 is loaded with young talent. The Bull will have to go thru murderers row to try to win it. Won't be any easier for PK in the next couple years.
 
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