Iowa makes Hall's top 5
- Thread starter hawkeyecrazy
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I have to call B.S. on this too. Not that you are taking shots Grappler...Just saying that guys could care less where Hall is going IMO. For example, Suriano's situation has nothing to do with Hall. You could argue this one in football or basketball where there is connective tissue, but not in wrestling where guys are in the same class deciding their future. I do think Hall would attract future recruits (I have said as much) around his weight...iron sharpens iron. Just don't think it matters right now except to maybe 2 or 3 guys in the country.
I subscribed for a month during WTT Junior WTT. Cancelled after that month using their website. I had heard it was required to use email when canceling but either they changed it or some people are technologically challenged.
I am so late on this thread and I apologize for posting for something Sloehawk said on page 2 (man I am really weighing in late... Hey, I've been busy). I agree with his post except for one point:
"...it depends on how much emphasis one puts on Freestyle credentials and subsequent accolades. I personally feel it's a great accomplishment, but it doesn't translate to College Folkstyle success or failure and never has. I honestly couldn't care less if any Hawkeye recruit ever won Fargo or Cadet or Junior anything as it relates to Freestyle. Iowa has had several Fargo Champs that didn't do much on the College scene at the end of the day. Why? Because it's Freestyle and it doesn't matter when you wrestle Folkstyle."
This is my view. I will take a chance and say most of the Fargo Champs that didn't reach the same level of success in college were also the dominant high school folkstyle wrestlers of the day. However, when they got into college, they either did not develop at the needed pace, and/or they lost their mental mojo or were dealing with injuries. How many Fargo Champs that didn't reach that level of success in college went on to win the US Senior Open, made World or Olympic Teams etc? I know someone will bring up Jamill Kelly. Jamill Kelly wasn't special in high school either. Never won a state title etc... and he wasn't tearing it up in freestyle during high school either. Kelly did not have the mentality and the confidence needed for his talent to shine until after college. The guys winning Fargo in Freestyle are the same guys winning the high school state titles, and they are the same guys we are discussing in this thread. These guys are at that elite level in both styles. It does matter because it emphasizes that great wrestlers in folksily are also great in freestyle and vice versa. Some may perform better in freestyle vs folkstyle but overall, it's the same guys excelling in both.
Wrestler A and Wrestler B may wrestle a folkstyle match and wrestler A wins. In a freestyle match wrestler B may win. However, both wrestlers will still be among the elite in either style.
Who knows where Hall or any of those top guys will end up in college. Some may jump straight to the OTC especially with 2016 being an Olympic year.
"...it depends on how much emphasis one puts on Freestyle credentials and subsequent accolades. I personally feel it's a great accomplishment, but it doesn't translate to College Folkstyle success or failure and never has. I honestly couldn't care less if any Hawkeye recruit ever won Fargo or Cadet or Junior anything as it relates to Freestyle. Iowa has had several Fargo Champs that didn't do much on the College scene at the end of the day. Why? Because it's Freestyle and it doesn't matter when you wrestle Folkstyle."
This is my view. I will take a chance and say most of the Fargo Champs that didn't reach the same level of success in college were also the dominant high school folkstyle wrestlers of the day. However, when they got into college, they either did not develop at the needed pace, and/or they lost their mental mojo or were dealing with injuries. How many Fargo Champs that didn't reach that level of success in college went on to win the US Senior Open, made World or Olympic Teams etc? I know someone will bring up Jamill Kelly. Jamill Kelly wasn't special in high school either. Never won a state title etc... and he wasn't tearing it up in freestyle during high school either. Kelly did not have the mentality and the confidence needed for his talent to shine until after college. The guys winning Fargo in Freestyle are the same guys winning the high school state titles, and they are the same guys we are discussing in this thread. These guys are at that elite level in both styles. It does matter because it emphasizes that great wrestlers in folksily are also great in freestyle and vice versa. Some may perform better in freestyle vs folkstyle but overall, it's the same guys excelling in both.
Wrestler A and Wrestler B may wrestle a folkstyle match and wrestler A wins. In a freestyle match wrestler B may win. However, both wrestlers will still be among the elite in either style.
Who knows where Hall or any of those top guys will end up in college. Some may jump straight to the OTC especially with 2016 being an Olympic year.
I have to disagree with the notion that some wrestlers commitment can't be held up by a single wrestler. It's not uncommon for coaches to offer a certain scholarship percentage to a couple of wrestlers (ie: WA = Full ride & WB = 50T) with the caveat that if WA decides not to attend, we'll be in the position to increase your (WB) scholarship offer. WB family may need more scholarship money in order to attend that school. WB may really want to attend the college but can't at a 50% offer, so he waits to see what happens with WA, knowing that his situation could change financially.
In fact, it's not uncommon for college coaches to make home visits or bring a student athlete on campus for an official visit and not offer a scholarship at all. What reason would a coach have to invest time and money and not present an offer unless he's waiting to see what happens with other offers?
I'm not saying that's the case with all the names mentioned on this forum but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the case with a couple of them. If one wrestler decision is being delayed by Hall's decision, that's unfortunate because Hall commitment date is sometime in October and that's a long wait for that wrestler. It's not Hall's fault or concern but when you're "the man", you can take all the time you need to make your decision.
Ping72, yes that is exactly what I said word for word. Good pick up
I didn't say "some wrestlers" or "a couple of them" might not be waiting on Hall but I disagreed with the statement that "the recruiting trail will remain fairly stagnant(compared to previous years) until Hall commits."
It won't be stagnant from now until October, if that is when Hall will commit.
From Intermat's Friday blog...
Q: Is there any chance Mark Hall doesn't sign with the University of Minnesota? Seems like a done deal from everything I have heard from those very close to the situation.
-- Mike C.
Foley: Of course there is a chance Mark Hall won't sign with Minnesota. He's an 18-year-old boy being wooed by every major college wrestling powerhouse. Most 18-year-old's I've known are predictably unpredictable, and while Hall may be the best wrestler in all the land, I doubt that title precludes him from making a shocking choice for his college career.
Still, you are right that the rumor mill has been chirping with the idea that Hall will head to Minnesota. That's as excellent choice as the Minnesota native could make.
Q: Is there any chance Mark Hall doesn't sign with the University of Minnesota? Seems like a done deal from everything I have heard from those very close to the situation.
-- Mike C.
Foley: Of course there is a chance Mark Hall won't sign with Minnesota. He's an 18-year-old boy being wooed by every major college wrestling powerhouse. Most 18-year-old's I've known are predictably unpredictable, and while Hall may be the best wrestler in all the land, I doubt that title precludes him from making a shocking choice for his college career.
Still, you are right that the rumor mill has been chirping with the idea that Hall will head to Minnesota. That's as excellent choice as the Minnesota native could make.
Foley doesn't even like collegiate wrestling and I doubt he's in tune to where recruits are headed.
I'd much rather Hall go to Minny than Ohio State or Penn State. Iowa remains my top choice for him. My second choice for him is somewhere he can't do damage, say Appalachian State.
Just a little factoid about Fargo placement and NCAA performance
From 1994-2015, 63.22% of the NCAA Division I All-Americans were All-Americans at Juniors or Cadets. 82.30% competed there.
During that same time frame, 79.55% of the NCAA Division I champions placed in "Fargo" (they weren't always held there). Since 2006, 89% of the NCAA champions (89 out of 100) at least competed there.
There are outliers, but they don't prove a point. Kelly is one. Jordan Burroughs never competed there either. In 2007, ever NCAA Division I champion was at least an All-American in Fargo.
What sets these kids apart from others is they have that desire to win at the highest levels. There are plenty of examples of kids who never did anything in freestyle/Greco who won NCAA championships, but that percentage is significantly lower than those who did.
From 2006-2014, each year saw at least 80% of the D1 All-Americans compete and no less than 56% place. In 2007, 74% of the D1 All-Americans placed in Fargo. The lowest came this past college season, with 56.25% of D1 AA's placing in Fargo. I attribute some of that to the wacky rule changes that saw freestyle become a bit more different from folkstyle. With the new rules put in two years ago, I would expect those college numbers to come back up into the 70% range when the current crop of high school kids reach the Division I leve.
Thanks for the info Jason. I remember you posting that in another "Does Freestyle really matter?" thread. Perhaps the Ping Pong paddle purchases can be put on hold.
I would bring up the same info on the guillotine if the MN fans were talking about getting a recruit that at this point in time did not include Minnesota as a school of interest. I fudged up when viewing Happels list, I thought it only included UNI and IA State (which seemed weird due to the ties to Iowa, should have triggered a double take. My apologies). Surianos was later updated to include Iowa, as do a few other articles. Yates did not include Iowa and Willie confirmed that on FRL. I misreported some info but it was unintentional and for that I apologize.
So should I also not point out people that do have Iowa listed since it is only a snapshot in time? Pointing out interest in Iowa and no interest in Iowa are obvious troll attempts and in no way wrestling discussion. No one should discuss either going forward.
Side note- Michigan State fans should continue to discuss the possibility of recruiting Mark Hall, even though they are not included in Halls most recent snap shot in time of schools. Informing them of no interest from Hall is trolling.
By recruiting being stagnant, I mean in comparison to other years. Not incredibly drastic, but i think it will be slower than usual. Not solely due to Hall, but I think it is one factor. A bigger factor for some than others.
To me the biggest reason is that so many gave verbals prior to July 1st, it leaves less to verbal in that period. There was just a ton of early verbals.
You're right HawkTalk...about 40% in the top 30 have verbaled. (Source - Flo rankings). Makes some sense and hopefully Hall, Happel, Suriano and a few other feel like saying yes to the Hawks soon.
I expected that to be higher. That's a large chunk who did not place at Fargo, etc.
HH,
it's a chunk but 63 out of 100 is a better, more telling chunk. I need to reverse engineer to see how many All-Americans became college All-Americans. That's a bit tougher of a task.
I look at the competed percentage metric ... D1 All-Americans who competed. That tells me there is a desire to compete and get better
More than 6/10 on any stat is considerable. The champions are the striking stat. There is a minimal chunk of champs who didn't place and a much smaller one of those who didn't compete.
The freestyle/Greco kids, statistically speaking, have a better chance at becoming D1 All-Americans than folk style only kids.
it's a chunk but 63 out of 100 is a better, more telling chunk. I need to reverse engineer to see how many All-Americans became college All-Americans. That's a bit tougher of a task.
I look at the competed percentage metric ... D1 All-Americans who competed. That tells me there is a desire to compete and get better
More than 6/10 on any stat is considerable. The champions are the striking stat. There is a minimal chunk of champs who didn't place and a much smaller one of those who didn't compete.
The freestyle/Greco kids, statistically speaking, have a better chance at becoming D1 All-Americans than folk style only kids.
I'm sure I'm missing something, but of those "Freestyle/Greco kids", how many won single or multiple State Titles in Folkstyle? How do those titles translate to DI placement? Or Fargo placement for that matter? I'm guessing there is a boatload of correlation there as well.
I think I can sum it up. Kids that are committed to wrestling and do it year round are likely going to have more success going forward than those that wrestle folkstyle during the season, then only wrestle folkstyle in the off season. There just isn't that many quality pre/post folkstyle tourneys to sharpen the proverbial iron. The kids that do it all, get better. Now there are certainly guys who are freestyle/Greco "specialists", whose skill sets lend themselves to success in those styles and that get exposed when they wrestle folk, but the best kids in the country right now (and in most years) wrestle free and folk (some Greco as well).
folkstyle itself is statistically insignificant because you know the answer, because like 99 percent of D1 All Americans were folkstyle wrestlers in high school. A that makes it more of a control than a statistic. The exceptions are the foreign wrestlers who didn't wrestle HS in the U.S.
If you're willing to do the years of research to track down all those state titles, great. Let me know what you find and I'd be more than happy to break that stat down. Although it will probably get a watered down stat since states are starting to add more classifications. In my home state, there are now SIX public school state titles.
Actually, I'll do some digging today and find some stats that might make the state champion argument worth talking.
It took me five years to compile all 19,000+ individual records from "Fargo"
Lot more folkstyle in the offseason than there used to be.
If you're willing to do the years of research to track down all those state titles, great. Let me know what you find and I'd be more than happy to break that stat down. Although it will probably get a watered down stat since states are starting to add more classifications. In my home state, there are now SIX public school state titles.
Actually, I'll do some digging today and find some stats that might make the state champion argument worth talking.
It took me five years to compile all 19,000+ individual records from "Fargo"
Lot more folkstyle in the offseason than there used to be.
It seems to me you're saying those that seek out the most competition regardless of style, statistically have a better career ultimately. If that's the case, I would agree that absolutely has merit. "What sets these kids apart from others is they have that desire to win at the highest levels".
I'm certain there are some that wrestled relatively little to no Freestyle before competing at Fargo and still managed to place (I know of some personally, though it's a small number, so I presume there are others throughout the country). That's where the "Freestyle/Greco kid" and what defines them as such gets a little fuzzy. Obviously there are some that do a bunch of it.
Sloe: What percentage of high school state champions go on to D-1 AA status? Is a HS state title a better indicator of D-1 success than Fargo?
Update with some HS State Champ vs. Fargo Numbers. These are for boys only.
Total number of All-Americans (Cadet & Junior) 2002-2014: 512/year
Total number of All-Americans (Cadet & Junior) Pre-2002: 400/year
** There have been weights added since the start of the Juniors in 1971 and Cadets in 1985
Currently, there are 17 Cadet weights (x2) and 15 Junior weights (x2)
The 2x accounts for freestyle and Greco-Roman
Total number of State Champions in 2015: 2,049
Average # of State Championships per state: 2.97
Average # of State Champions per state: 41.8
So there's four times the amount of state champions walking around than there are Fargo All-Americans in a given year.
I'd say the large percentage of NCAA All-Americans and Champs were state champions.
But to counteract the "chunk" argument above, how many state champions don't even start in Division I, let alone place or win?
Eventually I'll break down each of those 19,000 names and see how they did in college, but that's probably a long way from being completed.
Total number of All-Americans (Cadet & Junior) 2002-2014: 512/year
Total number of All-Americans (Cadet & Junior) Pre-2002: 400/year
** There have been weights added since the start of the Juniors in 1971 and Cadets in 1985
Currently, there are 17 Cadet weights (x2) and 15 Junior weights (x2)
The 2x accounts for freestyle and Greco-Roman
Total number of State Champions in 2015: 2,049
Average # of State Championships per state: 2.97
Average # of State Champions per state: 41.8
So there's four times the amount of state champions walking around than there are Fargo All-Americans in a given year.
I'd say the large percentage of NCAA All-Americans and Champs were state champions.
But to counteract the "chunk" argument above, how many state champions don't even start in Division I, let alone place or win?
Eventually I'll break down each of those 19,000 names and see how they did in college, but that's probably a long way from being completed.
Don't have any numbers... just a suspicion... being a state champ in some states would more highly correlate with d1 success (#AA's etc) than others.
Some states with 4 or 5 state classes, those with small populations (e.g. Wyoming) and those with only limited HS schools offering wrestling (e.g. some southern states) would probably not correlate so well. Being a single class large population state (e.g.CA) or a state champ from a tough class in a state with strong wrestling culture (e.g. PA, OH) would likely have a higher correlation.
Some states with 4 or 5 state classes, those with small populations (e.g. Wyoming) and those with only limited HS schools offering wrestling (e.g. some southern states) would probably not correlate so well. Being a single class large population state (e.g.CA) or a state champ from a tough class in a state with strong wrestling culture (e.g. PA, OH) would likely have a higher correlation.
And then there's NCAA champions like Derek Moore and Stephen Neal, who didn't win state titles.
States with one state championship: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont.
I think you'll find the state champions from those power states you allude to would also see a high percentage of those wrestlers being the same who compete and place in Fargo, too!
States with one state championship: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont.
I think you'll find the state champions from those power states you allude to would also see a high percentage of those wrestlers being the same who compete and place in Fargo, too!
That's logical.
Regarding the "chunk" argument, however, I'm in general agreement with Hounded that I would expect the percentage of NCAA AA's who were "Fargo champs" to be larger than you indicated. That's probably a simple matter of expectations. You see 63% as significant, I would expect a higher number.
Perspective.
Remember the percentage of "Fargo champs" also goes with Greco-Roman and Cadets had weights as light as 83.5. The Cadets are federation weights + 3 (88, 94 and 100).
The 63% was a 21-year average. Let's look more recently -- From 2006-2015, the percentage of wrestlers who placed at both Fargo and the NCAA's is 66%.
Another thing to consider is the NCAA brackets are 1-8 with 33 wrestlers in a bracket (28-36 before the new format), in Fargo, some of the older brackets were 1-8 with sometimes triple the numbers per weight in the NCAA. I think Junior 143 one year in Fargo had 150 athletes in just one style.
All these numbers stand to prove that the best Division I wrestlers are the best wrestlers, and in most of those cases, (8/10) they're at least competing for Fargo titles and in more than half of those cases, those All-Americans in D1 were All-Americans in Fargo.
I know I've personally seen plenty of future D1 All-Americans go 0-2 in Fargo or go 7-2 (and not place) ...
I'll always contend those who are placing in Fargo are in a better position to place at the D1 nationals. Numbers tend to validate that contention.
The 63% was a 21-year average. Let's look more recently -- From 2006-2015, the percentage of wrestlers who placed at both Fargo and the NCAA's is 66%.
Another thing to consider is the NCAA brackets are 1-8 with 33 wrestlers in a bracket (28-36 before the new format), in Fargo, some of the older brackets were 1-8 with sometimes triple the numbers per weight in the NCAA. I think Junior 143 one year in Fargo had 150 athletes in just one style.
All these numbers stand to prove that the best Division I wrestlers are the best wrestlers, and in most of those cases, (8/10) they're at least competing for Fargo titles and in more than half of those cases, those All-Americans in D1 were All-Americans in Fargo.
I know I've personally seen plenty of future D1 All-Americans go 0-2 in Fargo or go 7-2 (and not place) ...
I'll always contend those who are placing in Fargo are in a better position to place at the D1 nationals. Numbers tend to validate that contention.
K. Now my head hurts.
Remember when this was a Mark Hall thread?
Remember when this was a Mark Hall thread?Considering we're not taking time away from potential recruits (since non of us are actually recruiting), we might as well keep the dream alive.
