IOWA vrs ISU opening line as of Sunday mornig

[Old Uncle Teddy]

Iowa will win because Iowa usually wins. We beat them 2 out 3 times and blew the almost won 3rd game despite the worst offense in the nation. Iowa is ahead 8-2. The last three years are the worst three offensive performances in decades. The Clowns defense isn't any better than last year and I'm betting Iowa's offense is very much better. Think we'll see something like 34-10, four sacks and +4 in turnovers. As usual the Iowa offense will probably produce some short fields. This offense will waste far fewer short fields.

So, Iowa will win because that is the most typical result. While past success does not guaranty certainty past conduct is the usually the most predictive of future results. Iowa recruits better players and that translates into the 2-1 disparity of results. Get on the over brothers.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Sucker bet. You all are wayyyyyyyy too confident. I haven’t seen or heard this much confidence since 2005. We all know what happened in 2005. Honestly, I don’t get it. Did ISU really look that bad last weekend? I didn’t see much of it but what I did see, I thought they looked fine.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

ISU has won 3 out of the last 5 in Kinnick, why is anyone acting like this is some sort of gimme?

If you want to speak of precedent ... how about a relevant one?

Matt Campbell has coached at ISU since 2016. In that time, he's defeated Iowa exactly once. What's more, he defeated Iowa in 2022 ... a year when Iowa's O was abysmally bad. To supply added context, not only was Iowa's OL awful that year ... but our WR room was a complete shit-show that year ... and it was at an absolute low-point at the start of the season due to injuries. Also, Iowa was breaking in a new RB that year too ... because we had Goodson the prior year. On top of all that ... we all know that Petras was (in)famously a statue in the pocket.

Another part of the context of that game was that Jestin Jacobs got injured early in that game ... and Iowa didn't pivot all that well in terms of personnel. They tried to give Klemp a go as the back-up LEO ... but that didn't really work out well for us. Frankly, they should have shifted earlier to Benson at LEO and Higgins to WILL ... but it took them a game (or so) to make that adjustment. Anyhow, the issue with our in-game transition at LB was that it helped ISU get some traction in the run-game. Brock ended up having a rock solid game against the Hawks ... and that was really crucial.

Oddly enough, Iowa had a missed FG and a goal-line fumble (by our fullback) ... so there were missed opportunities abounding ... despite the fact that Iowa's O was terribly and couldn't even muster 200 yards in the game.

If you fast-forward 2 years ... I think that Iowa's O is in a much better place than it was that year. What hurt the Hawks as much as anything in that game was our complete ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball. Also, ISU had Hutchinson that year ... and Iowa was having to feature 3 new starters in the secondary that season (Schulte, Roberts/Castro, and DeJean) ... and that contributed to some of Dekker's success in the air in that game (although he also threw 2 picks).

Obviously, nothing that I write here means a whole lot ... match-ups only go so far. Ultimately, the team that wins has to be the one that is more motivated ... the one that wants it more. If you have one iota of complacency ... the opponent can use it against you. Football can be a game of momentum ... if you cannot seize it ... then you're inherently at a disadvantage. If you don't have it ... you can also make the mistake of pressing ... and then the entire game can then snowball out-of-control. Of course, that is part of what Ferentz-ball attempts to thwart ... but, Cade is a bit of a loose-cannon ... so that can either swing wonderfully in our favor ... or it could (conceivably) hurt us. We'll have to see.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Sucker bet. You all are wayyyyyyyy too confident. I haven’t seen or heard this much confidence since 2005. We all know what happened in 2005. Honestly, I don’t get it. Did ISU really look that bad last weekend? I didn’t see much of it but what I did see, I thought they looked fine.

2005 we had a whole new DL ... one that was largely manned by undersized, converted LBs.

In 2005, the media was pimping Iowa because of what we pulled off in 2004 and because we returned Drew Tate ... Iowa was simply the fashionable choice in the pre-season.

Furthermore, with Iowa had a little bit of a juggled OL in '05 as well ... with Lee Gray's off-season injury and the loss of prior starters to graduation ... that contributed to Tate having to run for his life in that game (until he knocked himself out of the game after he threw that pick).

Anyhow, given the personnel-situations for each team ... I think that the 2005 match-up is a terrible comp.

 

[Jimmy McGill]

2005 we had a whole new DL ... one that was largely manned by undersized, converted LBs.

In 2005, the media was pimping Iowa because of what we pulled off in 2004 and because we returned Drew Tate ... Iowa was simply the fashionable choice in the pre-season.

Furthermore, with Iowa had a little bit of a juggled OL in '05 as well ... with Lee Gray's off-season injury and the loss of prior starters to graduation ... that contributed to Tate having to run for his life in that game (until he knocked himself out of the game after he threw that pick).

Anyhow, given the personnel-situations for each team ... I think that the 2005 match-up is a terrible comp.

I live in Ames (now). But I have not went to an Iowa - ISU game there since 2005. And probably won't ever again.

 

[luvmyhawks]

2005 we had a whole new DL ... one that was largely manned by undersized, converted LBs.

In 2005, the media was pimping Iowa because of what we pulled off in 2004 and because we returned Drew Tate ... Iowa was simply the fashionable choice in the pre-season.

Furthermore, with Iowa had a little bit of a juggled OL in '05 as well ... with Lee Gray's off-season injury and the loss of prior starters to graduation ... that contributed to Tate having to run for his life in that game (until he knocked himself out of the game after he threw that pick).

Anyhow, given the personnel-situations for each team ... I think that the 2005 match-up is a terrible comp.

I wasn’t comparing personnel at all. Just the complete overconfidence of Iowa fans and this board in particular. Everyone, even isu fans were convinced Iowa would roll. This one feels quite similar so far.

 

[Birky]

I wasn’t comparing personnel at all. Just the complete overconfidence of Iowa fans and this board in particular. Everyone, even isu fans were convinced Iowa would roll. This one feels quite similar so far.

It does not in any way feel similar to 2005.

Nonetheless, even if your memory of the tenor of the two fan bases from 20 years ago compared to this year meant anything at all, I’d be more concerned.

Iowa does appear to be the stronger team. That does not mean they will win.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I wasn’t comparing personnel at all. Just the complete overconfidence of Iowa fans and this board in particular. Everyone, even isu fans were convinced Iowa would roll. This one feels quite similar so far.

I'm gathering a quiet confidence yes ... but I'm not sensing that the rational fans believe that Iowa will roll. For god sakes ... Iowa was favored against Stanford in the bowl game following the '15 season. Irrespective of personnel or match-ups ... the bottom line always boils down to the jimmies and the joes. Are the guys gonna bring it?

I'm expecting around an 8-point score differential. I'm otherwise expecting a tightly contested game - I'd expect nothing less from a Matt Campbell coached ISU squad. I also know that Phil Parker's D is not going to allow the score-board to get lit-up ... particularly if they can get any help from the O (even if that help is primarily in the form of playing "keep-away" from the ISU O).

Anyhow, if you are sensing things being more similar to the 2005 game ... then perhaps its related to expectation surrounding the Hawks? However, as I indicated ... the expectation surrounding the '05 squad wasn't entirely warranted ... particularly for those familiar with the roster and injury situation in '05.

My contention would be that if you consider the weight of expectation in '05 ... it was unreasonable and unwarranted. However, looking at the '24 Hawk squad ... the D has to develop experience at 1 corner spot and develop depth on the DL. Would you not agree that is a pretty good situation to be in?

As for the O ... I would certainly agree that overconfidence concerning that unit would be laughable. However, that said ... the OL is finally in a position where it should be solid. At QB, if Cade plays with confidence ... then we're in a situation that we haven't seen since we had Beathard at the helm. I like what Betts has done with our RB room ... as DrinkingBuddy has indicated, if Kaleb can get himself fully "locked in" ... then he'll finally elevate himself as being "the dude." I won't lie ... I'd be more comfortable going in against ISU if Williams were healthy ... I was impressed with his leadership last year. I really like our TE room. Lachey is a dude ... and Ortwerth and Ostrenga are bloody good ... lots of talent with good experience too. THE biggest question for Iowa's O concerns its WRs. However, getting Brown back certainly doesn't hurt. Furthermore, having a FR like Vander Zee brimming with confidence doesn't hurt either. At WR, it's often a situation of whether a guy "has it" or not. Vander Zee has some moxy ... and Lester was doing a good job of using him. Also, Gill caught my attention by catching some really balls where he immediately got pulverized ... its been a while since Iowa demonstrated that they had a guy who could/would catch the tough-balls. Iowa certainly doesn't have a WR corps that will inspire fear in our opponents ... but, quite honestly, Ferentz coached teams don't really need that from our WRs. If we can possess the ball and score some points ... our special teams and defense are good enough to ensure that we'll win games.

 

[fish1hawk]

No one was more thrilled than I was with the second half explosion. But Vegas appears less impressed. How much was the second half about us vs a gassed Illinois St who backs and linebackers were unable to make plays

 

[oldxbbc]

As of Wendesday morning 9:45 Iowa -3 and O/U 36. Line not really moving at all.

 

[luvmyhawks]

I'm gathering a quiet confidence yes ... but I'm not sensing that the rational fans believe that Iowa will roll. For god sakes ... Iowa was favored against Stanford in the bowl game following the '15 season. Irrespective of personnel or match-ups ... the bottom line always boils down to the jimmies and the joes. Are the guys gonna bring it?

I'm expecting around an 8-point score differential. I'm otherwise expecting a tightly contested game - I'd expect nothing less from a Matt Campbell coached ISU squad. I also know that Phil Parker's D is not going to allow the score-board to get lit-up ... particularly if they can get any help from the O (even if that help is primarily in the form of playing "keep-away" from the ISU O).

Anyhow, if you are sensing things being more similar to the 2005 game ... then perhaps its related to expectation surrounding the Hawks? However, as I indicated ... the expectation surrounding the '05 squad wasn't entirely warranted ... particularly for those familiar with the roster and injury situation in '05.

My contention would be that if you consider the weight of expectation in '05 ... it was unreasonable and unwarranted. However, looking at the '24 Hawk squad ... the D has to develop experience at 1 corner spot and develop depth on the DL. Would you not agree that is a pretty good situation to be in?

As for the O ... I would certainly agree that overconfidence concerning that unit would be laughable. However, that said ... the OL is finally in a position where it should be solid. At QB, if Cade plays with confidence ... then we're in a situation that we haven't seen since we had Beathard at the helm. I like what Betts has done with our RB room ... as DrinkingBuddy has indicated, if Kaleb can get himself fully "locked in" ... then he'll finally elevate himself as being "the dude." I won't lie ... I'd be more comfortable going in against ISU if Williams were healthy ... I was impressed with his leadership last year. I really like our TE room. Lachey is a dude ... and Ortwerth and Ostrenga are bloody good ... lots of talent with good experience too. THE biggest question for Iowa's O concerns its WRs. However, getting Brown back certainly doesn't hurt. Furthermore, having a FR like Vander Zee brimming with confidence doesn't hurt either. At WR, it's often a situation of whether a guy "has it" or not. Vander Zee has some moxy ... and Lester was doing a good job of using him. Also, Gill caught my attention by catching some really balls where he immediately got pulverized ... its been a while since Iowa demonstrated that they had a guy who could/would catch the tough-balls. Iowa certainly doesn't have a WR corps that will inspire fear in our opponents ... but, quite honestly, Ferentz coached teams don't really need that from our WRs. If we can possess the ball and score some points ... our special teams and defense are good enough to ensure that we'll win games.

I am 100% talking about expectation. Nothing more nothing less. I pretty much agree with your entire post here. On paper and matchups/personnel… what’s not to like about Iowa. Guess that is my point. Trying to not let myself get overconfident as that usually sets yourself up for disappointment.

I guess it is more of a me thing. lol.

 

[yrunvs]

I suggest betting the farm on the Washington generals vs Harlem globe trotters.... their due.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I am 100% talking about expectation. Nothing more nothing less. I pretty much agree with your entire post here. On paper and matchups/personnel… what’s not to like about Iowa. Guess that is my point. Trying to not let myself get overconfident as that usually sets yourself up for disappointment.

I guess it is more of a me thing. lol.

One of my best buds is the same exact way ... he always expects the worst. The disappointment coming from unmet expectations is a bitch ...

 

[pistachio1999]

Only way Iowa loses this game is too many turnovers and/or lots of dumb penalties.

 

[Nagarunja]

For god sakes ... Iowa was favored against Stanford in the bowl game following the '15 season.

Wrong.

 

[Birky]

No one was more thrilled than I was with the second half explosion. But Vegas appears less impressed. How much was the second half about us vs a gassed Illinois St who backs and linebackers were unable to make plays

I have a feeling they weren’t gassed when they walked out of the tunnel for the second half. That is when the offense took over.

 

[Underscore2]

2005 we had a whole new DL ... one that was largely manned by undersized, converted LBs.

In 2005, the media was pimping Iowa because of what we pulled off in 2004 and because we returned Drew Tate ... Iowa was simply the fashionable choice in the pre-season.

Furthermore, with Iowa had a little bit of a juggled OL in '05 as well ... with Lee Gray's off-season injury and the loss of prior starters to graduation ... that contributed to Tate having to run for his life in that game (until he knocked himself out of the game after he threw that pick).

Anyhow, given the personnel-situations for each team ... I think that the 2005 match-up is a terrible comp.

Wind and heat were a major factor in that game as well. Hellacious football game. Hopefull both wont be a factor this time around.

 

[squeezebox]

Iowa State is missing its linebacking core. They gave up 174 yards rushing to a team that arguably lost one of its best lineman to Iowa. Iowa was missing key contributors on offense due to suspension, get Brown, Johnson, and Patterson back for the entire game (the latter may still be on the doghouse).

Iowa fans should feel very confident about absolutely blasting ISU. We finally have an OC that if they load the box, they will pay at some point. Their defensive line is more than suspect by the film below. Iowa only needs to stop the passing game.

First play, pick for Iowa
0:47, good lord I could. get 2 yards on that defense
1:18, again glaring hole
1:47, kid should have cut it up for an absolutely monster gain
2:26...LMFAO

 

[fish1hawk]

No one was more thrilled than I was with the second half explosion. But Vegas appears less impressed. How much was the second half about us vs a gassed Illinois St who

 

[squeezebox]

No one was more thrilled than I was with the second half explosion. But Vegas appears less impressed. How much was the second half about us vs a gassed Illinois St who

For the 10millionth time, Vegas only places lines to get betters half/half on each side of the game.

 

[HawkMachine]

No one was more thrilled than I was with the second half explosion. But Vegas appears less impressed. How much was the second half about us vs a gassed Illinois St who backs and linebackers were unable to make plays

No way they were already gassed in the third quarter.

Fourth quarter I can understand.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

Sucker bet. You all are wayyyyyyyy too confident. I haven’t seen or heard this much confidence since 2005. We all know what happened in 2005. Honestly, I don’t get it. Did ISU really look that bad last weekend? I didn’t see much of it but what I did see, I thought they looked fine.

Well, just going by rankings (I know, I know but its all to go by right now), Iowa State played a similar team that Iowa did and look at the numbers. That coupled with ISU's linebacking core in a shambles. Lots of reasons for Iowa fan to be pretty confident.

 

[pistachio1999]

Well, just going by rankings (I know, I know but its all to go by right now), Iowa State played a similar team that Iowa did and look at the numbers. That coupled with ISU's linebacking core in a shambles. Lots of reasons for Iowa fan to be pretty confident.

He will have to go mostly 4 - 3 this week.

 

[pistachio1999]

No one was more thrilled than I was with the second half explosion. But Vegas appears less impressed. How much was the second half about us vs a gassed Illinois St who backs and linebackers were unable to make plays

We were only rotating on the D Line. Rest of the guys stayed in until 4th quarter when game wasn't close. They should be in as good of condition as us.

 

[Iafootballfan]

For the 10millionth time, Vegas only places lines to get betters half/half on each side of the game.

This is partially true but the opening line is however based on power rankings. If you want proof that betting lines aren't exclusively designed for bet volume look at KenPom for basketball. You can look at what his projections are well before the spread comes out, the Vegas lines are nearly identical. KenPom has zero care in the world of who is betting on who.

For example:
Sagarin has Iowa rated 20th and ISU 26th in power rating with Iowa as a 1.5 point favorite on mean projection.
Massey has Iowa State rated 21st and Iowa 25th with ISU having a 54% chance to win.

The computers see these teams about dead even, the home field is the only difference at this point.

 

[Dauminator]

Sucker bet. You all are wayyyyyyyy too confident. I haven’t seen or heard this much confidence since 2005. We all know what happened in 2005. Honestly, I don’t get it. Did ISU really look that bad last weekend? I didn’t see much of it but what I did see, I thought they looked fine.

I don't take much from the State game last week. That was a bizarre game where the opponent was content to slowly rumble down the field then not score, and ISU was content to let them. Their offense didn't do a lot because they hardly touched it. They were not bothered to try; ND is not a good team and State needed about 25% effort to cruise.

The confidence comes from the fact that the offense showed life. I don't care that it was a hapless opponent, Iowa hasn't been able to move the ball on the Sisters of the Poor in years. The QB was accurate, WRs were open and caught passes, the TEs weren't even needed except as cool scheme decoys, the RBs were great, and the balance on offense made the line look leaps above last year. All we've asked for is basic competence on offense and it looks like we have it. The defense is just as good as always. Special Teams are strong again.

Then look at the other side, what reason for confidence does Iowa State have? They have a puncher's chance with their skill position talent. But this Iowa defense has proven they know how to stifle the Clowns. Their scores the last five meetings are: 3, 17, 17, 10, 13. Line play? Forget about it. Their defense? Usually salty but they are absolutely decimated at LB, the unit largely needed to counter backs and tight ends, two units that happen to be Iowa's strength this year.

No, the only reason to be at all concerned for the Hawks is simply that it's a squirrely rivalry where bizarre things can and do happen. They ought to win by a couple scores.

 

[pistachio1999]

This is partially true but the opening line is however based on power rankings. If you want proof that betting lines aren't exclusively designed for bet volume look at KenPom for basketball. You can look at what his projections are well before the spread comes out, the Vegas lines are nearly identical. KenPom has zero care in the world of who is betting on who.

For example:
Sagarin has Iowa rated 20th and ISU 26th in power rating with Iowa as a 1.5 point favorite on mean projection.
Massey has Iowa State rated 21st and Iowa 25th with ISU having a 54% chance to win.

The computers see these teams about dead even, the home field is the only difference at this point.

Easy money.

 

[BHoppy]

As of Wendesday morning 9:45 Iowa -3 and O/U 36. Line not really moving at all.

Probably everyone is betting on the O/U. So, little money bet on spread the line will not move much.

 

[squeezebox]

This is partially true but the opening line is however based on power rankings. If you want proof that betting lines aren't exclusively designed for bet volume look at KenPom for basketball. You can look at what his projections are well before the spread comes out, the Vegas lines are nearly identical. KenPom has zero care in the world of who is betting on who.

For example:
Sagarin has Iowa rated 20th and ISU 26th in power rating with Iowa as a 1.5 point favorite on mean projection.
Massey has Iowa State rated 21st and Iowa 25th with ISU having a 54% chance to win.

The computers see these teams about dead even, the home field is the only difference at this point.

Kenpom has nothing to do with football, and furthermore, Vegas makes their money from volume and any other form of betting which the odds are in their favor (i.e. parlays). The history of this matchup likely sets the initial line, but it means little to nothing depending upon the bets placed on either side.
"the opening line is not as important as most people believe it is. It is the bettors who truly set the lines, not the oddsmaker."

How Lines Are Set: An Oddsmakers Perspective | Circa Las Vegas

The opening line can be a term that is thrown around pretty loosely in sports betting. Read about how the line is set from an oddsmaker from Circa | Sports.

www.circalasvegas.com

 

[pistachio1999]

 

[Old Uncle Teddy]

View embedded media

Iowa has a superior player at almost every position. The offense didn't look good in the first half. New coordinator and an entirely new offense to learn. The first half looked a lot like the recent offenses. The second half saw a lot of new that worked.

 

[BonzoFury]

The only way we lose this one is turnovers. The only way that happens is if Cade continues throwing off his back foot.

 

[Madman_1]

For the 10millionth time, Vegas only places lines to get betters half/half on each side of the game.

Exactly. The initial line is Vegas trying to land in the middle of the bets.

The line moves after that because of what the BETTORS think of the matchup, not what Vegas thinks of the matchup.

 

[Old Uncle Teddy]

The only way we lose this one is turnovers. The only way that happens is if Cade continues throwing off his back foot.

Forty yards to a place only the tallest receiver would probably have the best chance to catch the ball and that tallest receiver is a 6'4" Hawkeye with a 40+" vertical leap for a TD is something we can overcome.

 

[BurgHawk87]

This is partially true but the opening line is however based on power rankings. If you want proof that betting lines aren't exclusively designed for bet volume look at KenPom for basketball. You can look at what his projections are well before the spread comes out, the Vegas lines are nearly identical. KenPom has zero care in the world of who is betting on who.

For example:
Sagarin has Iowa rated 20th and ISU 26th in power rating with Iowa as a 1.5 point favorite on mean projection.
Massey has Iowa State rated 21st and Iowa 25th with ISU having a 54% chance to win.

The computers see these teams about dead even, the home field is the only difference at this point.

What are those ratings based on for week 2?

 

[BonzoFury]

Forty yards to a place only the tallest receiver would probably have the best chance to catch the ball and that tallest receiver is a 6'4" Hawkeye with a 40+" vertical leap for a TD is something we can overcome.

40 yards? Watch it again. It was a 25 yard floater into a crowd. VZ bailed him out with a heads up play. I hope they do target VZ in the way you describe but that play wasn't it. Cade's other throws were great and his mobility was a breath of fresh air. We have a QB.

 

[Old Uncle Teddy]

Watch it again. That's a nice narrative but it was a floater into a crowd. VZ bailed him out with a heads up play.

I've seen it a few times. The ball was over everyone's head but RVZ. It was an excellent catch, to be sure, but the ball would have sailed into the back corner of the end zone had RVZ missed the catch.

You just aren't used to seeing QBs at Iowa that can make that throw and 6'4" with a 40+ inch vertical receivers that can go up a grab a ball that high. It has been a long time since we saw Mad Dog Marvin McNutt catching from really a solid thrower, and even Marvin didn't have RVZ's speed or vertical jump.

 

[BonzoFury]

I've seen it a few times. The ball was over everyone's head but RVZ. It was an excellent catch, to be sure, but the ball would have sailed into the back corner of the end zone had RVZ missed the catch.

You just aren't used to seeing QBs at Iowa that can make that throw and 6'4" with a 40+ inch vertical receivers that can go up a grab a ball that high. It has been a long time since we saw Mad Dog Marvin McNutt catching from really a solid thrower, and even Marvin didn't have RVZ's speed or vertical jump.

LOL, the ball wasn't "over" anyone's head...it was dropping into a group of players. VZ turned back and made a great play to pick it out of the air. If he doesn't catch that it bounces off one of several players in that group to who knows what end. Freeze it at 8:06

I'm sure we'll see Cade target VZ in the end zone like you describe, hopefully a lot. But this wasn't that... VZ bailed him out.

 

[Iafootballfan]

Kenpom has nothing to do with football, and furthermore, Vegas makes their money from volume and any other form of betting which the odds are in their favor (i.e. parlays). The history of this matchup likely sets the initial line, but it means little to nothing depending upon the bets placed on either side.
"the opening line is not as important as most people believe it is. It is the bettors who truly set the lines, not the oddsmaker."

How Lines Are Set: An Oddsmakers Perspective | Circa Las Vegas

The opening line can be a term that is thrown around pretty loosely in sports betting. Read about how the line is set from an oddsmaker from Circa | Sports.

www.circalasvegas.com

KenPom has nothing to do with football- it’s an example of how power rankings are almost identical to betting lines. That’s not a coincidence.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Wrong.

Thanks for the correction ... I could have sworn that Iowa started off the favorite ... but all odds I see here in hindsight end up having had Stanford favored by 6 to 6.5 points.

Anyhow, I stand corrected.

My example was wrong ... but the point remains that anything can happen in games. In 2017, I'm sure that Ohio State was favored against Iowa. Certainly, no-one would have expected that glorious wood-shed game.