Pre-season Vegas power rankings are mostly based on returning production, coaching staff, and last year’s performance against the model’s projections. As the data from each game comes in it becomes more heavily weighted towards this years performance against the model with the previous year phasing out a month or so into the season. This is why so called “handicappers” find the most value in the first few games.
IOWA vrs ISU opening line as of Sunday mornig
- Thread starter oldxbbc
- Start date
So I wouldn't look too much into these since they're effectively using last years offense as a guide. (I know, sample size of one. But one half already looked better than all of last season. Hell the pace of the first half would have resulted in more yards than all but 2 games last year.)
27-10 Iowa. I expect a slow start to the offense again for the first possession or two and then methodically start putting the game away. 10-3 at the half.
I think they play play mind games with the ISU linebackers.
So, with the slow start comment someone has to ask the question: Will KFz's presence on the sidelines inhibit Lester's play calling?
The emotional presence of KF is the wild card, maybe that motivates the offense earlier than I think.
I just don't see this being as close as what Vegas and other prognosticators think it's going to be.
First, I realize ISU has a pretty potent passing game, but we have one of the best back sevens in the entire country. Does anyone really think ISU's passing game is better than our back 7?
Second, our strength on offense.....running the ball.....is currently set up perfectly to have success with ISUs top 4 LBs all out. I do fully expect them to bring out a 4-2-5 against us in order to mitigate the loss of all those LBs, but I still think our running game will have success against their depleted LBs.
The only thing I can see derailing us (knocking on wood) is turnovers. That has been the deciding factor in like the last 10 meetings. As long as we don't beat ourselves, I don't think ISU can beat us. And if we play clean, I expect something along the lines of 31-6 to be the final score. It'll probably be somewhat close at the half.....something like 10-3......but then I fully expect to impose our will on them in the 2nd half.
First, I realize ISU has a pretty potent passing game, but we have one of the best back sevens in the entire country. Does anyone really think ISU's passing game is better than our back 7?
Second, our strength on offense.....running the ball.....is currently set up perfectly to have success with ISUs top 4 LBs all out. I do fully expect them to bring out a 4-2-5 against us in order to mitigate the loss of all those LBs, but I still think our running game will have success against their depleted LBs.
The only thing I can see derailing us (knocking on wood) is turnovers. That has been the deciding factor in like the last 10 meetings. As long as we don't beat ourselves, I don't think ISU can beat us. And if we play clean, I expect something along the lines of 31-6 to be the final score. It'll probably be somewhat close at the half.....something like 10-3......but then I fully expect to impose our will on them in the 2nd half.
1:00 PM Thursday HAWKS -2 O/U 37.5 What the heck am I missing. Been a Hawk Fan for over 60 years and abvious know strange things have happened in this rivalry but this one bothers me. Hawks should be favored by at least a touchdown.
I’m still seeing -3 o/u 35.5. Can’t believe I am going to say this but the over in kind of enticing. I could see a 24-14 or 24-17 type of game.
Betting lines are all about public perception.
The public is about to find out just how good this Iowa team will be this year.
The public is about to find out just how good this Iowa team will be this year.
All Kirk is gonna be doing is deferring to the second half if we win the coin toss.
It's never too low for an Iowa game.
People went broke betting the over on Iowa last year (2-12).
I'd have felt better if both halves looked better than all of last season. The first half still looked a whole lot like last season, scoring only 3 points (not going to count the 3 and out FG) against an overmatched FCS opponent. Need to see a game against a real opponent to know which half is more indicative of how this season's offense will look. We should have a much better idea after this Saturday.
Fun fact:
Iowa went 10-1 last year when they scored a point.
Only loss was against MN which we all know “should” have been a win.
So, CAN Iowa score a point on Saturday?
I just don’t see a loss. It’s weird, my wife WANTS me to make the bet. lol
Iowa went 10-1 last year when they scored a point.
Only loss was against MN which we all know “should” have been a win.
So, CAN Iowa score a point on Saturday?
I just don’t see a loss. It’s weird, my wife WANTS me to make the bet. lol
Do it!!! You will kick yourself.
Somebody is gonna pick 6 his ass again and our DL is gonna disrupt the hell out of them, and if he takes off running, Jay Higgins or Jackson there to end it. I could see Rocco getting knocked out of this game.
Upon further review, I think you're right. A ballsy way to escape the rush for McN. Last three years that ball is either thrown in the dirt, out of the back of the end zone or intercepted. Nice to see a freshman with the focus to watch the ball into his hands and the physical talent to out jump everyone around him. The pass might be the football equivalent of an uncalled bank shot in BB with the shot clock ready to expire.
Speaking of pick 6, I just watched last years game.
I took that score away, then added their missed fg.
They end up beating us.
I’m trying to find ways to make the bet or not to. lol
PS The ONLY thing that worries me are our corners. IF we lose it will be from our cornerback play.
All good brother. I get the point you were making. Vander Zee is definitely that kind of WR we've been missing. I'm sure we'll see Cade target him in the end zone and he'll come down with 6 this year. Go Hawks!
So their kicker is a redshirt freshman from Dubuque IOWA.
You better believe he’s going to be nervous.
If it comes down to kicking, which it very may will, I like OUR guy.
You better believe he’s going to be nervous.
If it comes down to kicking, which it very may will, I like OUR guy.
There is a tendency to overreact to the first week performance. So Iowa's offense not likely as good as they looked in the 2nd half. ISU maybe a bit better than they looked over all.
That said there is good reason to think that Iowa's defense will be very good this season. The defense really only has 3 games last year where they gave up a lot of points. 2 of those were heavily affected by turnovers. Can ISU replicate what PSU did to the Iowa defense? They have an accurate QB good WRs, good TE. I am skeptical that they can do that. There is also good reason to think that ISU may struggle a bit against Iowa's running game given their injuries. I imagine they may decide to out number Iowa and try and make Cade show he can't beat them.
If the turnovers are even then I think Iowa wins.
That said there is good reason to think that Iowa's defense will be very good this season. The defense really only has 3 games last year where they gave up a lot of points. 2 of those were heavily affected by turnovers. Can ISU replicate what PSU did to the Iowa defense? They have an accurate QB good WRs, good TE. I am skeptical that they can do that. There is also good reason to think that ISU may struggle a bit against Iowa's running game given their injuries. I imagine they may decide to out number Iowa and try and make Cade show he can't beat them.
If the turnovers are even then I think Iowa wins.
While Iowa may not average 40 ppg the offense is clearly much better and different than the last three seasons. Think back to all those short fields where Iowa started drives inside the other team's field and Iowa came away with nothing but occasional field goals.
Iowa will probably get as many short fields this year as the last three seasons-the defense looks the same with the same results. The return game looks very promising. A lot of players that look capable of creating a big play any time the get the ball. Given the Clowns current LB injuries and the high quality TEs Iowa puts on the field Iowa kind of starts the game with a big Iowa positional advantage.
At some point there will be a huge turning point play for Iowa and Iowa runs away with it after a morale crushing interception or sack + lost fumble. Maybe WetJen runs a punt back.
Closing out some of those turnovers with a TD instead of 3...or even nothing would be a huge win. That's the stuff that shifts game momentum big time.
In the loss, the first in 8 years, two seasons ago Iowa lost by what, 3? Iowa had at least two drives start inside the Clowns 20 and came away with nothing, if memory serves (and it might not). If Kaleb B returns and has shown significant improvement Iowa might actually have a reliable scoring offense. I think we agree that the season will likely go the way CMcN goes. Although Iowa has a reserve with 8 Big Ten starts and a 70% completion rate, making a better starter than anyone since Nate Stanley was throwing the ball.
