Iowa- Zags prediction thread

[ihawk in FWB]

The game is a real toss up.

The biggest advantage I see is that Iowa's second five players is a top 35 team.

The Hawkeyes need to come out at breakneck speed and wear the Bulldogs down.

Suggs will be a real problem, but he's young and CJ and Joe's T can wear him out.

If the Hawkeyes can shoot the 3 like we no they can the Hawkeyes have a chance.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

We’ve seen 6 Iowa games. We’ve played 4 teams we should beat any year. We’ve smashed Iowa state when they’re obviously down. We beat a pretty good North Carolina team by 13 (scored 93 points). We’ve seen absolutely nothing to tell us we will lose to Gonzaga.

Could we lose? Yes. Do I think we will win? Yes. We have a great team. Not a good team, a great team! Any team can lose on any given day but this Iowa team has what it takes to beat anyone.

Iowa 84, Gonzaga 76.

It's a good thing unc made the 2nd half push and briefly took the lead. In past years we would curl up in a ball and cry. Nice to see more mental toughness and less quit vs previous years. Gives me more faith

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Can garza create fouls but stay out of foul trouble another huge factor

 

[ZumaHawk]

Hawks will make free throws to win this game!!

 

[EKHawk]

Don't know who's going to win but have a feeling the losing team will be National Champs.

 

[mazda1]

I’d wait until Vegas gives us a spread. Probably the Zags by 6-8. If pressed my thought would be Iowa will overpay. It likely goes to the Zags by 10-12.

 

[Legend12]

The biggest advantage I see is that Iowa's second five players is a top 35 team.

LMAO

 

[luvmyhawks]

Don't know who's going to win but have a feeling the losing team will be National Champs.

Here‘s to losing then!! Cheers!!

I think the better question here is what are the overs going to be?

 

[chuck285]

Hopefully the Hawks win but will give us motivation when we play and beat them in the Big Dance later on....

 

[KinnickCrawler]

I think the Zags are actually going to zig when everyone else is zagging. I think they’re going to let Garza get his and leave the player defending him on an island, but try to take everyone else away. That way, Garza will need like 60 to beat them. That being said, pencil me in for Hawks by 12.

 

[vgshwk]

84-81 to the Hawks! Garza goes off with 30+ pts and 12+ rebounds.

the worst thing is effing cbs disrespects us with a 9 an pst time slot. #1 vs 3 cbs you suck half the country will still be sleeping. This game would be better on prime time on btn.

 

[Fran_Man]

99-85 Hawks. Just needed someone in this thread calling for a double digit Hawkeye win.

 

[HAWKS4LIFE]

87-78 Gonzaga. Can't wait to watch this!

 

[General Tso]

Zags 87 Iowa 81.

Iowa 78 Zags 72 in NCAA rematch

 

[fezzador]

Head: 93-90 Zags
Heart: 95-92 Iowa

Either way, it's a win-win for Iowa. A win gives the Hawks even more confidence, a loss provides some learning and growth opportunities.

 

[rendango]

I’d wait until Vegas gives us a spread. Probably the Zags by 6-8. If pressed my thought would be Iowa will overpay. It likely goes to the Zags by 10-12.

The early lines I have seen have it at Gonzaga -3.5 vs. Iowa. Basically a pick em in college basketball. I didnt see an over/under posted yet.

 

[silasstarr]

105-93 Iowa wins

 

[ihawk in FWB]

LMAO

FO

 

[Rifler]

I think our longer bench makes the difference here,... Hawks by 6.

 

[EKHawk]

the worst thing is effing cbs disrespects us with a 9 an pst time slot. #1 vs 3 cbs you suck half the country will still be sleeping. This game would be better on prime time on btn.

Think I heard this is due to all the football championship games this Saturday. On the upside, the game is on free TV.

 

[HIWILLE]

If our guards are hot we have a slight chance

Wrong. If our guards are hot we win. They would have to stop Garza and that’s not happening. How can you say “slight” chance? Think about it our guards are hot and Garza get his points. We win without a nail biter.

 

[HIWILLE]

And of course we need to play some solid defense

 

[Kurt Warner]

If the 3s are falling, we win.

This, all the way

 

[kceasthawk]

They could get completely blown out of the water, but I would be surprised if that happened to this team. I think the 'zags win it, but Iowa has more than just a puncher's chance.
I'm glad they're getting this matchup. Win or lose there's lots of good things ahead for this team.

Absolutely. THIS is the year for this schedule, so hats off to Fran for his work preparing and growing this team, and giving the fans what they want. a schedule with some teeth for a team that looks ready to eat whatever is in front of it.....

 

[silasstarr]

Absolutely. THIS is the year for this schedule, so hats off to Fran for his work preparing and growing this team, and giving the fans what they want. a schedule with some teeth for a team that looks ready to eat whatever is in front of it.....

Even if they lose, Iowa will get a lot out of the game.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Hawk fans of little faith....not going to name the score but I think Iowa wins this game if played. The only thing I'm worried about is this, it's possibly Gonzaga's last game that they could lose for the rest of the year, and I just don't trust Mark Few. He want's that number 1 seed and losing to Iowa even though it's early in the season....well I hope they play the game so Iowa gets the chance to make a statement.
Four of their starters average over 30+ minutes a game and their 5 starter averages over 28+ minutes. They only play 7 to 8 players with Timme at 6-10 their tallest player that they have and he's a sophomore. If they want to run with us we'll wear them out and on a court that most of our veterans have played on before. Bring them on....

Don't worry I told luka to get a few if them to foul out

 

[jpphawk]

90-86 Zags. Our defense will be the Achilles heal. I hope we win and I truly think we are a final 4 team but Gonzaga is the best team in the nation.

 

[kceasthawk]

Even if they lose, Iowa will get a lot out of the game.

Absolutely, as long as its a good game, this is a no lose situation for Iowa, so hopefully they play loose. The Zags need this game, as other then the makeup with Baylor, (if that ever happens), their schedule won't give them the chance at nearly as many quality wins as Iowa will have in the BIG.

 

[silasstarr]

90-86 Zags. Our defense will be the Achilles heal. I hope we win and I truly think we are a final 4 team but Gonzaga is the best team in the nation.

Iowa's defensive efficiency numbers are better than Gonzaga's right now. Whether Iowa is better defensively, I don't really know. Probably not.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I've been reviewing the profiles of both Iowa and Gonzaga and a few things jump out.

1) Everyone knows both teams like to push the pace, but only one of the teams appears to try to slow the other team down: Both Iowa and Gonzaga use 14.4 seconds per possession, but on defense, Iowa is forcing teams to use 17.5 seconds while Gonzaga only forces their opponents to use 15.8 seconds.
2) The Zags tend not to aggressively hit the offensive glass -- they only rebound 29.6% of the opportunities. Iowa, by contrast is rebounding 38.5% of their opportunities. That however, may get negated, as our defensive rebounding is poor (allowing 35.7% offensive rebounds while the Zags only allow 25%).
3) Gonzaga does not shoot a lot of free throws, and they give up a lot of free throw attempts. Can Garza get them into deep foul trouble? Drew Timme commits only 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes, but their backup center (Ballo) commits 9.1 fouls per 40. Their next tallest player (Watson: 6'8'') also commits 5.8 fouls per 40. For reference, Garza draws 8.6 fouls per 40 thus far.

All in all, I think that these nuggets actually bode well for Iowa. I think Garza will feast on the offensive glass, draw a lot of fouls and get their bigs having to play soft due to foul trouble. I think that if they do commit players to the offensive glass to try to take advantage of our weakness, we'll be able to score more than we already do in transition, and if they don't; they aren't exploiting our weakness. If Garza can draw a lot of fouls, it will also allow him to get cheap breathers while shooting free throws and allow him to play more minutes than a game with less stoppages.

Based on this analysis, I'll go with:
Iowa - 92
Gonzaga 86

 

[SSG T]

The game is a real toss up.

The biggest advantage I see is that Iowa's second five players is a top 35 team.

The Hawkeyes need to come out at breakneck speed and wear the Bulldogs down.

Suggs will be a real problem, but he's young and CJ and Joe's T can wear him out.

If the Hawkeyes can shoot the 3 like we no they can the Hawkeyes have a chance.

Gonzaga plays a faster pace than Iowa, the Hawks aren't going to wear them out.

Oh, and the Hawks backups wouldn't make a top 35 team right now. Might be able to finish ahead of Nebraska...might.

 

[unoHawkeye]

I've been reviewing the profiles of both Iowa and Gonzaga and a few things jump out.

1) Everyone knows both teams like to push the pace, but only one of the teams appears to try to slow the other team down: Both Iowa and Gonzaga use 14.4 seconds per possession, but on defense, Iowa is forcing teams to use 17.5 seconds while Gonzaga only forces their opponents to use 15.8 seconds.
2) The Zags tend not to aggressively hit the offensive glass -- they only rebound 29.6% of the opportunities. Iowa, by contrast is rebounding 38.5% of their opportunities. That however, may get negated, as our defensive rebounding is poor (allowing 35.7% offensive rebounds while the Zags only allow 25%).
3) Gonzaga does not shoot a lot of free throws, and they give up a lot of free throw attempts. Can Garza get them into deep foul trouble? Drew Timme commits only 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes, but their backup center (Ballo) commits 9.1 fouls per 40. Their next tallest player (Watson: 6'8'') also commits 5.8 fouls per 40. For reference, Garza draws 8.6 fouls per 40 thus far.

All in all, I think that these nuggets actually bode well for Iowa. I think Garza will feast on the offensive glass, draw a lot of fouls and get their bigs having to play soft due to foul trouble. I think that if they do commit players to the offensive glass to try to take advantage of our weakness, we'll be able to score more than we already do in transition, and if they don't; they aren't exploiting our weakness. If Garza can draw a lot of fouls, it will also allow him to get cheap breathers while shooting free throws and allow him to play more minutes than a game with less stoppages.

Based on this analysis, I'll go with:
Iowa - 92
Gonzaga 86

Really interesting stats, thanks for sharing. I wonder if the difference in average defensive possession time can be explained by Iowa’s 3/4 court press they do. It hasn’t forced a ton of turnovers this year, but I don’t think it gets the credit that it deserves for helping take opposing teams out of their offensive rhythm instead of getting out and running after made baskets

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Really interesting stats, thanks for sharing. I wonder if the difference in average defensive possession time can be explained by Iowa’s 3/4 court press they do. It hasn’t forced a ton of turnovers this year, but I don’t think it gets the credit that it deserves for helping take opposing teams out of their offensive rhythm instead of getting out and running after made baskets

I do think that is what it is -- it is designed to limit the amount of time our team has to actively guard; as teams frequently aren't setting up their offensive sets until 18-14 seconds left in the shot clock.

I haven't watched enough Gonzaga film to understand why their defensive possessions are so short, but as they aren't forcing many turnovers or blocking shots, I have to think that it is frequently giving up fast break attempts and/or secondary break shots; which Iowa excels at.

 

[Hawksfinal4]

Hawks win by no less than 8, likely by 13

 

[NI hawk]

Iowa now 62.9 % chance of winning on ESPN power index.

 

[Hawk94Mn]

it might be a benefit for this team to lose early against a foe such as Gonzaga. If we win they will be wildly regarded as the favorite for the NC and Big Ten Title. Giant expectations like that can crush a team. If we do pull it out, I don’t know what I’ll do as a fan. We’ve never been a national title favorite before

 

[HawkLogic]

I've been reviewing the profiles of both Iowa and Gonzaga and a few things jump out.

1) Everyone knows both teams like to push the pace, but only one of the teams appears to try to slow the other team down: Both Iowa and Gonzaga use 14.4 seconds per possession, but on defense, Iowa is forcing teams to use 17.5 seconds while Gonzaga only forces their opponents to use 15.8 seconds.
2) The Zags tend not to aggressively hit the offensive glass -- they only rebound 29.6% of the opportunities. Iowa, by contrast is rebounding 38.5% of their opportunities. That however, may get negated, as our defensive rebounding is poor (allowing 35.7% offensive rebounds while the Zags only allow 25%).
3) Gonzaga does not shoot a lot of free throws, and they give up a lot of free throw attempts. Can Garza get them into deep foul trouble? Drew Timme commits only 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes, but their backup center (Ballo) commits 9.1 fouls per 40. Their next tallest player (Watson: 6'8'') also commits 5.8 fouls per 40. For reference, Garza draws 8.6 fouls per 40 thus far.

All in all, I think that these nuggets actually bode well for Iowa. I think Garza will feast on the offensive glass, draw a lot of fouls and get their bigs having to play soft due to foul trouble. I think that if they do commit players to the offensive glass to try to take advantage of our weakness, we'll be able to score more than we already do in transition, and if they don't; they aren't exploiting our weakness. If Garza can draw a lot of fouls, it will also allow him to get cheap breathers while shooting free throws and allow him to play more minutes than a game with less stoppages.

Based on this analysis, I'll go with:
Iowa - 92
Gonzaga 86

Lot of good information in your post. Garza supposedly 7'3 inch wingspan and Timme at 7'0...Timme also looks soft (opinion) and not a shot blocker. I don't think Timme will slow Garza down and if Garza is scoring close to 30, then all that matters is whether Iowa shoots a decent 3ball percentage.

The other big you mention might be able to guard Garza, but he's foul prone. Gonzaga doesn't shoot the 3ball exceptionally well. Suggs is a future star...but Freshmen PG make a lot of turnovers. I think Iowa matches up really well and we win.

 

[NevadaHawk]

87-86 Hawks. JBO drills a three at the buzzer. Hawk fans watching the game in their living rooms go insane.

 

[HawkGem10]

Zags play D, Iowa doesn't that much keeps being seen over and over.....T is only one who has a chance of really guarding any guards from Zaga...prob going to be a 10-12pt loss and never really feel in the game.

 

[HawksRMe]

Really feeling a Hawk win here. Zags just starting to practice again and I think they're gonna be a little rusty. I like the Hawks 89-81.