Game week has finally arrived! It's been 9 long months since our Hawkeyes last limped off the field after bad back to back losses. To the Homers, those losses are water under the bridge. No new offensive coordinator, QB coach, playmaking WRs or QBs were needed because, at the end of the day, Iowa won 10 games. Sure, nearly all were against .500 or worse teams and the Hawks lost to nearly every team with a pulse (i.e. Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, and the bowl game), but 10 wins is 10 wins. Looking ahead, let's see what IowaLaw sees for the future:
Decreased Production from WRs. Iowa had arguably the worst WR corp in the Big Ten last year. Keagan Johnson, Iowa's top receiver as a true freshmen, wound up just 37th in the conference in receiving yards. In other words, most teams had 3 guys as productive as Iowa's top WR. Of course, Johnson been inexplicably out with an "abdominal injury" for the past 11 months (my guess is a stab wound kept quiet?), so don't look for him to make an impact early on. Iowa's other starter, Bruce, another true freshmen, didn't crack the Big 10's top 50 last year in receptions or yards. He will see his role increase and catch a lot of short passes, but he's 5'10 on tip toes and weighs 195. Not exactly a prototypical Big 10 WR. Iowa's biggest play threat, Charlie Jones, transferred once he realized there would be no QB change. Iowa's #1 WR at the start of last year, who led the league in early season drops, chose to depart as well. So what did Iowa do to improve upon this obvious weakness? Hit the transfer portal? Nope, "no need." Land some big time WR recruits who could come in and play right away? Nah. The Hawks recruited just 1 high school WR last year (Bostick, a mid-major prospect) and one the year before (Brecht, a baseball prospect). Instead, Kirk and Co decided their best bet would be to fill holes with walk-ons previously destined for Loras College. Could Wick & Johnson catch some passes this year? Definitely. Would they be any Power 5 coach's first choice to see action? Absolutely not. Very poor planning by the staff to have these guys even sniffing the two deeps when there were something like 300 WRs available in the transfer portal.
Decreased Production from RBs. I've heard a lot of optimism about the RBs on the team. Unfortunately, Hawk fans won't truly appreciated how good Goodson was until he's gone and making plays for the Packers. Goodson was the only 1st team all-Big 10 RB to play at Iowa since Shonn Greene 14 years ago. That kind of back isn't easily replaced, especially when this year's backs will be running straight into 8 man fronts daring Iowa to throw the ball. The Williams duo showed flashes in the Bowl game, but did so against a mediocre opponent who sat 7 defensive starters in the game. Gavin had just 120 yards the rest of the season and didn't appear to have break away speed. By the time the conference schedule begins, look for the 4**** true freshmen to have an impact and take over the majority of carries by the end of the year. Ladell Betts can recruit RBs like none before him, so look for 2022 to be the last "lull" year for Iowa RB production.
Increased Production from Defense. By all accounts, this years defense is stacked. With virtually everyone back (minus Van Valkenburg), the Hawks will improve upon last year's 3rd ranked total defense. Jack Campbell led the conference with 143 tackles last year. Look for him to improve upon that. Seth Benson was 7th with 105 tackles. He's back. Jacobs and DeJean are stars in the making. In the secondary, the Hawks led the conference with 25 interceptions last year. Since no one will be able to run on the front four, look for more passes and more interceptions to keep the Hawks in games when their offense doesn't show up. Evans and Van Ness tied for 6th in sacks last year. Look for Van Ness to double his sack total from 7 to 14 and see his stock rise dramatically.
Slight Improvement from QB. Petras was 11th in the conference in passer rating last year, an improvement from his previous year. Should a documented history of poor performance keep him as a starter for 3 years at most schools? Nope. But at Iowa, as long as you go to class and call adults "sir," you're pretty much a lock to keep your starting spot barring injury. Did Petras put in the work during the offseason to improve? Yes. He looked good in summer videos throwing the ball against no coverage. But then again, he's always looked good with no pressure. He's still the same guy who went 9-22 for 137 yrds in his last Big 10 game. Look for slight improvement because he's been around a really, really, long time and at least knows the "super complex" offense. Still, he was 11th in the Big 10 in yards per pass last year even WITH Jones and a healthy Johnson...look for him to regress in yards per attempt, with no deep threat WRs and a lot of check down high completion percentage passes to TEs and RBs (including 3 yard outs on 3rd and 5). The Hawks need Petras to up his game to at least AVERAGE (i.e. 7th best in the league) to have any shot at success this year.
Kicking Woes. The Hawks hit 86% of their field goals last year. That % alone was worth 2 wins. Look for field goal percentage to drop down to the Big 10 average (around 75%) with brand new kickers. There will be a close game that slips away as a result. A sophomore walk-on will get the start in game 1. Let's hope he's clutch under pressure, but that's a lot to ask.
Decreased Production from OL. The Hawks will be starting FOUR sophomores on the OL this year. That is unheard of in the Ferentz era. Check back in 2 years when they'll be studs, but there is no excuse for having 4 sophomores start at OL in the Big 10. Recruiting misses and staff's inability to understand the transfer portal make it hard to imagine a scenario where this year's OL is better than last year with a first team all-American anchoring the unit. On the bright side, the OL coach, who was last year's most underperforming coach, earned himself a hefty raise in the off season (200,000 raise for a job well done). Maybe that will motivate him to think outside the box with the whole "zone blocking scheme" that helped Goodson lead the conference in runs for a loss.
All in all, the Hawks will be in the hunt for the Big 10 west title based on defense and the Big 10 west being a terrible college football division. Would it be nice if the Hawks had at least a few offensive weapons to provide the D some breathing room? Absolutely. But we don't always get everything we want and until the staff brings in an actual play caller, the offense will always struggle.
PREDICTION - Sadly, the Hawks will go 7-5, despite having several all-Big 10 super stars on defense, the offense absolutely stalls out midway through the season, Brian finally gets the hint and takes a low level NFL assistant role in the NFL that his dad sets up, and a new QB takes over next year...still with no one to throw to.
