Is ALL of Ukraine Committed to the War Against Russia?

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Every time there's a war, there are always people fighting, dying and suffering.

Often there are also many who either go on more-or-less as normal. And of course, there are plenty who line up to profit or otherwise take advantage.

The war in eastern and southern Ukraine seems pretty brutal. Not as brutal as the war in Gaza on a per capita basis - which may be why Ukraine has taken a back seat for several months - but still pretty brutal.

But what about western Ukraine? Lviv, say? What's life like there?

That thought came to mind when I read about how much trouble Zelensky is having finding people willing to fight. He just now signed a law lowering the draft age to 25. 25? WTF? He had been pushing for 18 - like the US, but ran into too much opposition. And there are fears even this token lowering (from the previous 27) will cause a big backlash.

Do Ukrianians really want to fight for their nation?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/02/zelensky-signs-law-lowering-draft-age-bid-boost-military-ranks/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/world/europe/zelensky-ukraine-military-draft-age.html

 

[onlyTheObvious]

There are a few families of Ukrainians in the cedar valley. Including men that fled after hostilities started.

I don’t blame them one bit.

Russia wins this unless Putin dies. Russia will not run out of men.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

There are a few families of Ukrainians in the cedar valley. Including men that fled after hostilities started.

I don’t blame them one bit.

Russia wins this unless Putin dies. Russia will not run out of men.

I've thought from the beginning that Putin would be satisfied taking the eastern half of Ukraine. Preferably Odessa, too, but most of the east (all of the southeast) to the Dnipro River might be acceptable.

Under that scenario, western Ukraine would be free to join the EU and NATO as a separate nation. So why would western Ukrainians care about the war?

 

[Bonerfarts]

I think it's common for every war I imagine. Reading history on the US Civil war I forget that many people and businesses went on as normal and Lincoln had to beg for men and supplies. Same goes with Russia, some farmers son in Siberia doesn't give a crap about the Dontesk Oblast or Crimea.

 

[Bonerfarts]

I've thought from the beginning that Putin would be satisfied taking the eastern half of Ukraine. Preferably Odessa, too, but just most of the east to the Dnipro River might be acceptable.

Under that scenario, western Ukraine would be free to join the EU and NATO as a separate nation. So why would western Ukrainians care about the war?

Don't fool yourself, Putin isn't stopping there.

 

[Bonerfarts]

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Don't fool yourself, Putin isn't stopping there.

That's what we keep saying. Sounds like mindless Cold War propaganda - "domino theory" anyone? - and needs to be challenged.

Would Putin like more? Almost certainly. But he's not an idiot.

 

[Finance85]

Don't fool yourself, Putin isn't stopping there.

Obviously a lot of people believe that. I personally don't have an opinion on that yet. What makes you believe that? Putin has been open about taking parts of Ukraine with heavy Russian ancestry and culture. Has he made any statements that go beyond that? It's a sincere question, not meant to put you on the defensive.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

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Some of that was pretty interesting. Some of it wrong. They lost me when they started talking about reverse-engineered UFO technology.

Needless to say, Macron overstepped - and was slapped down by his peers.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Obviously a lot of people believe that. I personally don't have an opinion on that yet. What makes you believe that? Putin has been open about taking parts of Ukraine with heavy Russian ancestry and culture. Has he made any statements that go beyond that? It's a sincere question, not meant to put you on the defensive.

There is the fact that this isn't his first go around with invading another nation or the fact that Putin launched this current and more brutal phase of the war with a major advance towards Kiev that doesn't have a ethnically Russian population. Or the fact that when he did this he told his people he was there to "denazify" the whole country that has a Jewish president.

Have you not noticed that his motivations for the war keep shifting?

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

There are a few families of Ukrainians in the cedar valley. Including men that fled after hostilities started.

I don’t blame them one bit.

Russia wins this unless Putin dies. Russia will not run out of men.

There are advantages to being able to force people into military service at gunpoint. That's the big advantage Russia has.

If Russia didn't have that advantage I'm guessing that they would have been routed from Ukraine by now.

 

[jneffer]

Obviously a lot of people believe that. I personally don't have an opinion on that yet. What makes you believe that? Putin has been open about taking parts of Ukraine with heavy Russian ancestry and culture. Has he made any statements that go beyond that? It's a sincere question, not meant to put you on the defensive.

a european strongman just wants to annex the portions of neighboring nations that he thinks should be within his borders

it's worked out perfectly before...why wouldn't it this time?

 

[h-hawk]

Some of that was pretty interesting. Some of it wrong. They lost me when they started talking about reverse-engineered UFO technology.

Needless to say, Macron overstepped - and was slapped down by his peers.

It may be incorrect to say Macron has been forced to change his mind-he seems to sincerely come to believe that Russia must be stopped and appears willing to feed the French military into the war if needed. I've said this all along, but believe at the very least, Poland and the Baltic countries will not let Ukraine lose if they have anything to say about it.

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

HROT liberals care more about Ukraine than many Ukrainians themselves. But not for Ukrainian sovereignty but rather for Biden's foreign policy.

Ireland has taken in a huge number. How many of these are fighting age men and women?

More than 104,400 Ukrainians have arrived in Ireland and received temporary protection orders since the war with Russia began in February 2022.

More Ukrainian refugees now leaving State accommodation than entering the country

Daily average of 25 Ukrainian refugees arrived in Ireland last month, compared to 70 last December

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

HROT liberals care more about Ukraine than many Ukrainians themselves. But not for Ukrainian sovereignty but rather for Biden's foreign policy.

Ireland has taken in a huge number. How many of these are fighting age men and women?

More than 104,400 Ukrainians have arrived in Ireland and received temporary protection orders since the war with Russia began in February 2022.

More Ukrainian refugees now leaving State accommodation than entering the country

Daily average of 25 Ukrainian refugees arrived in Ireland last month, compared to 70 last December

www.irishtimes.com

You don't know the answer but you've decided to throw that out there as a red herring.

Just an FYI there are probably a lot of people in a country of 33.2 million people who are generally considered too old or too young to fight in a war.

And I'm guessing that as a conservative male you don't believe women should be fighting in wars which further reduces the number of people that you would regard as fit to fight.

Quite frankly I view this as the best chance to stop or hold Putin up without having to involve NATO troops. All we have to do is send weapons. But the pro-Putin caucus insists that we must stop doing this because we shouldn't care about Ukraine because isolationism totally worked the last time we tried it and totally kept us out of a major war.

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

And I'm guessing that as a conservative male you don't believe women should be fighting in wars which further reduces the number of people that you would regard as fit to fight.

Wrong. Sign them up.

 

[Finance85]

a european strongman just wants to annex the portions of neighboring nations that he thinks should be within his borders

it's worked out perfectly before...why wouldn't it this time?

There's this pesky little organization called NATO, that he's obviously afraid of.

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

You don't know the answer but you've decided to throw that out there as a red herring.

Just an FYI there are probably a lot of people in a country of 33.2 million people who are generally considered too old or too young to fight in a war.

40% OF UKRAINIAN REFUGEES AGED 18 – 24 WERE MALES, STATE ACCOMMODATION FIGURES SHOW​

A document seen by Gript shows that 40% of the Ukrainians aged between 18 and 24 who were in state accommodation on April 26 this year were male.

...

That cohort, but particularly that of 18-24 year olds, includes all who are eligible to be conscripted into the Ukrainian army. The only exemptions being those males who are fathers of three or more children or who are found to be of ill health.


That would suggest that a large number of Ukrainian males of military age have in effect come to Ireland in order to avoid the draft.

40% of Ukrainian refugees aged 18 - 24 were males, state accommodation figures show - Gript

40% of Ukrainian refugees aged 18 - 24 were males, state accommodation figures for April 26th show - an upwards trend MATT TREACY says is also being observed in other EU countries.

gript.ie

 

[seminole97]

It may be incorrect to say Macron has been forced to change his mind-he seems to sincerely come to believe that Russia must be stopped and appears willing to feed the French military into the war if needed. I've said this all along, but believe at the very least, Poland and the Baltic countries will not let Ukraine lose if they have anything to say about it.

Did you watch that video I linked before on the recent developments in the Sahel?
France has reasons to push back on Russia, but it’s not because they’re worried about Russian tanks in Paris, or Poland for that matter.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

Don't fool yourself, Putin isn't stopping there.

Who would be next? It only gets tougher for Putin if he strikes another country

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

There's this pesky little organization called NATO, that he's obviously afraid of.

He has a man trying to get onto the inside to break it up.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Who would be next? It only gets tougher for Putin if he strikes another country

He hasn't gone after a NATO country. He knows that's suicide.

 

[seminole97]

He has a man trying to get onto the inside to break it up.

If there is no NATO, do you expect the 448 million people in the EU will just start bowing to Putin?
Or will they see to their own defense against Russia’s shrinking population of 144 million?

 

[h-hawk]

I just posted this in the Ukraine thread. A little more about France and the argument on sending in troops.

"According to the latest news from the Russian #TASS news agency on April 3, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman #Zakharova said that, based on available information, "at the beginning of March the French Foreign Legion had already identified 1,500 soldiers to participate in the fighting in #Ukraine."The battalion-level tactical group composition "should be fully combat-ready and deployed to Ukraine in April."

France has not yet responded.At present, regarding #Macron's "troop deployment theory," #NATO is divided into two camps: the countries represented by the United States, #Germany, #Low Countries and others are firmly against sending troops to Ukraine to prevent escalation of the situation; while the active Baltic countries, #Poland and #Finland believe that there is nothing wrong with the "troop deployment theory" and that no long-term possibility should be ruled out."

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

He hasn't gone after a NATO country. He knows that's suicide.

It is if the US remains committed to the alliance. A certain presidential candidate has made it clear that if he were in charge the US would not be committed to the alliance.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

If there is no NATO, do you expect the 448 million people in the EU will just start bowing to Putin?
Or will they see to their own defense against Russia’s shrinking population of 144 million?

They would have trouble producing the weapons they need to fight the Russians especially if their former ally suddenly refuses to stop selling them weapons.

 

[seminole97]

They would have trouble producing the weapons they need to fight the Russians especially if their former ally suddenly refuses to stop selling them weapons.

Why would the technologically advanced Europeans struggle to produce weapons they need? Germany remains a leading manufacturer with a highly skilled workforce.

And when has the MIC refused to sell Europe weapons?

The neutrality acts after WW1 just said it had to be on a cash and carry basis, so they couldn’t blackmail us into bailing them out by threatening to default on loans from Wall Street for weapons.

 

[Bonerfarts]

Some of that was pretty interesting. Some of it wrong. They lost me when they started talking about reverse-engineered UFO technology.

Needless to say, Macron overstepped - and was slapped down by his peers.

Obviously the UFO part was tongue and cheek.

 

[Bonerfarts]

Who would be next? It only gets tougher for Putin if he strikes another country

Moldova, The Baltic States, Poland. If Biden is elected I don't see this happening. If Trump is elected and doesn't enforce article 5, then it's Nazi Germany all over again.

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

Been to Ukraine a lot with quite a few friends. Short answer is that most don't want to fight or have their children fight. They consider it a death sentence.

Do they (even Russian one's hate Putin?) Yes

Do they want to die defending a corrupt nation? Many, no.

Farmers are hiding for fear of the draft.

Mothers and Fathers fear for their son's.

Most don't hate Russians.

Lviv is not safe.

My one friend who is vocal against Russia is under 40 and is farming.

Major farm operations (hundreds of thousands of acres) can pay $500 to keep workers out of the draft.

They are terrified of nuclear war.

They have a saying... US will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

Btw, per capita gdp of Ukraine... $5200 per year.

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

Don't fool yourself, Putin isn't stopping there.

Putin would have to occupy Ukraine. The mighty Soviets had struggles with armed conflict in Ukraine in the 1950s.

Putin can't occupy and hold Ukraine. 140 million people can't take on NATO.

Be realistic.

He can blow us back to the dark ages.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

It is if the US remains committed to the alliance. A certain presidential candidate has made it clear that if he were in charge the US would not be committed to the alliance.

Russia couldn't take out non NATO Ukraine.

After the losses Russia has taken in this fiasco it'll be quite a while before Russia takes on anyone else.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Why would the technologically advanced Europeans struggle to produce weapons they need? Germany remains a leading manufacturer with a highly skilled workforce.

And when has the MIC refused to sell Europe weapons?

The neutrality acts after WW1 just said it had to be on a cash and carry basis, so they couldn’t blackmail us into bailing them out by threatening to default on loans from Wall Street for weapons.

And you don't think Trump and the MAGA's could ban the MIC from selling the weapons?

 

[seminole97]

And you don't think Trump and the MAGA's could ban the MIC from selling the weapons?

No, I don’t think anyone will stand between the MIC and making a buck.

I think Trump would brag about American arms sales, we are after all #1 in the world.

 

[Finance85]

He has a man trying to get onto the inside to break it up.

Putin had 4 years to test Trump, but didn't, for whatever reason.

 

[ISUBryceC]

I've thought from the beginning that Putin would be satisfied taking the eastern half of Ukraine. Preferably Odessa, too, but most of the east (all of the southeast) to the Dnipro River might be acceptable.

Under that scenario, western Ukraine would be free to join the EU and NATO as a separate nation. So why would western Ukrainians care about the war?

If Mexico invaded, but promised to stop after taking Texas, would you care?

 

[onlyTheObvious]

Moldova, The Baltic States, Poland. If Biden is elected I don't see this happening. If Trump is elected and doesn't enforce article 5, then it's Nazi Germany all over again.

Poland is NATO. That would be suicide for Putin.

 

[Bonerfarts]

Poland is NATO. That would be suicide for Putin.

Not if he has assurances from Trump there will be no repercussions.

 

[seminole97]

Not if he has assurances from Trump there will be no repercussions.

EU has nukes, and 3x the Russian population and a much larger economy.
Why are they considered only fit to be American wards?

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

EU has nukes, and 3x the Russian population and a much larger economy.
Why are they considered only fit to be American wards?

I expect they view a Biden presidency and his propensity at throwing America's money at the war instead of their own is a deal one can't turn down.