Um what? CJF is a minus defensively? You definitely are smokin’ rocks.
Is the ‘silver lining’ in the CJF injury cloud the elimination of the 4 guard offense?
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Um what? CJF is a minus defensively? You definitely are smokin’ rocks.
please comment on and tell me where CJF compares with his peers.
Sports Reference where low rating is preferred, the 2nd is Defensive boxscore +/-, where high is best
LG. 97.4
JT. 100.3
JW. 101.3
CP. 101.9
RK. 102.4
CM. 103.2
JB. 106.4
BK. 107.3
CJ. 107.3
fox sports college basketball advanced analytics for defensive plus/minus (where higher is better)
CP. +3.6
RK. +2.8
CM. +2.5
LG. +2.0
JW. +2.0
JT. +2.0
BK. +0.5
CJ. +0.0
JB. -1.5
So here we see consensus using an orthogonal method of analysis
When we were rebounding, the 4 guard offense was great. We have to get rebounds and if that means adding Kriener, so be it.
Pemsl is rarely playing against a team's top players, Fran subs him in against reserves when opponents tops players are getting a breather. There is not nearly enough data out there for advanced metric, this isn't the NBA with an 82 game season.
Only argument that has any merit is that against certain match ups the Kreiner/Garza combo should get more minutes.
Nebraska game shoots a major hole in your theory. Plus the Purdue debacle skews all the metrics for the group on the court during that barrage.
Ive detailed this in numerous other posts, but you may not have seen those, the gist is that JoeTO played 35m, although being the worst offensive player, was allowed to attempt more FG than Garza, the BEST offensive player in the B1G. In addition to playing too much, shooting too much, he had 4 TOs, or basically consuming ~25% of the offensive opportunities.
Had Fran given those minutes to Pemsl and Kriener, and those FGA to Garza, Iowa wins that game.
Iowa has played awful defense in more instances than just Purdue, giving up 100 to Michigan too.
If Fran sticks with the big lineup, you will see more defense and more wins
When we’re we rebounding with the 4 guard lineup? I recall us getting abused nearly every night
recall at jNWM where we gave up 9 in 1st half and struggled?
I think we’ll see Iowa control boards vs tOSU
I understand there is some value in advanced metrics - and I’m not totally dismissing them - but even the people that put out the advanced metrics say the biggest flaw in using the numbers is they are skewed by how many minutes a player is in. They even use an example that a player who plays low minutes (like a Pemsl) with a good Defensive Rating can be skewed by the lack of minutes. That doesn’t mean the player can’t be a good defensive player, it just means the metrics have their limitations.
These same metrics say Frederick has the best offensive rating on the team. Since you are big on using these metrics, I’m assuming you also think Frederick is the best Offensive player, even better than the POY candidate?
Sometimes the eye test can be valuable too and anyone can see the team Defense is a lot better with Frederick, Touissant, and Connor starting compared to Cook, Moss, and Bohannon in those same spots last year.
Good thoughts, when checking a Garza leads the B1G in 8 offensive and ‘Win Shares’ categories, including the most comprehensive Player Effective Rating and Win Shares per game. Quite an amazing an truly elite performance. Only accomplished by those that can out pace the next closest by 10-20%. Amazing. (These bring blocks, rebounds, fouls drawn, minutes played, defense vs opponent )
CJF on the other hand leads the B1G in true shooting %, but Garza at 4 and Wieskamp at #8. However CJF turns into a pumpkin after that with worst defensive rebounding % on team, and similar metric falling into the shooter only role.
so when he’s out, and replaced by pemsl, you get pemsl defensive production (or krieners) on every possesion, a huge plus, and because pemsl doesn’t shoot much more than high % layins, a hi % of his FGA go to....Graza (21 FGA at MN, or Wieskamp, a top 8 true shooter) so , you are still going too see a high% of CJPs FGA go to Garza and Wieskamp, (or evening Kriener, who was shooting 66% on 2’s going into the MN game)
in terms of small sample size and pemsl. He’s playing in ~20% of the teams minutes, but has also played in 23 games, so I don’t know where the line of statistical significance is, and more minutes certainly add P-value to his over all numbers being predictive. That’s said, we are going to see his minutes go up and we’ll see if his production goes up with it, (like at MN)
In summarizing, I made the assertion that losing CJF maybe a blessing as Iowa defense will improve (as it did v MN) and the offense will have enough options to keep it at a high efficiency.
I think we’ll see that and I think we’ll see Iowa play it’s best ball, even with a thin bench that includes JoeTO and RileyNil
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Thought provoking post. Something to think about, especially after Purdue loss and the beginning of Indiana game before CJ went down.
IMO, any lineup with less Evelyn minutes, is for the better. When CJ returns I would like to see more minutes with Connor at 1, CJ and Weezy on the wings, Kriener and Pemsl rotating in an out at the four position, and obviously Garza. Joe T can still start and play his 20 minutes a game.
Connor has best assist to TO ratio in the land, let him run the offense more.
IMO, any lineup with less Evelyn minutes, is for the better. When CJ returns I would like to see more minutes with Connor at 1, CJ and Weezy on the wings, Kriener and Pemsl rotating in an out at the four position, and obviously Garza. Joe T can still start and play his 20 minutes a game.
Connor has best assist to TO ratio in the land, let him run the offense more.
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FYI ... on college basketball reference (the web site you used for the defensive ratings), CJF is rated higher than Garza in offensive rating (123.9 vs 122.3). So, you saying Garza is the best offensive player in the B1G is not backed up by the numbers.
And ... the numbers show that the offense is not nearly as good without CJF.
So the guy that shoots 48 from 3 and 50 from the field and is the ONLY guard on our team that makes penetration plays for others with a great assist to turnover ration and has hit big shot after big shot oh yea and guards the other teams best guard every game hes played in- will make the all freshmen team and who other coaches have said will be a pain in the ass the next four years ...... is the problem okay makes sense to me......now we are ready for a final four run since CJ is hurt and can not play.....I guess this is why the kid should transfer
A. You forgot to add that Iowa had these TWO BEST NET wins of the year...FYI ... on college basketball reference (the web site you used for the defensive ratings), CJF is rated higher than Garza in offensive rating (123.9 vs 122.3). So, you saying Garza is the best offensive player in the B1G is not backed up by the numbers.
And ... the numbers show that the offense is not nearly as good without CJF.
B. Back up for claim that Garza is best offensive player in BiG. Garza leads these categories:
1. PER: Player efficiency rating (the #1 category used by NBA analysts.
-Garza 35.8. Oturo 30.4
2. Win Shares per game (2nd most used evaluation metric) Garza 5.3
3. Win Shares per 40 minutes Garza .262 Smith
4. Offensive Win Shares per game Garza 4.0 Cowan 3.2
5. Offensive Box plus/minus Garza 8.7 Cowan 7.5
6. Points Produced Garza 525 Winston 451
7. Points
8. Points/game
9. Total FG made
10. 2 pt FG made
11. Effective FG% Garza .595 Oturo .595
2nd in offensive rebounds Oturo 93 Garza 91
-Joe Wieskamp is The second most frequent Iowa player on these lists
-but your saying that CJF is better at offense than Garza? Is that correct?
Even with graza leading all of these offensive categories?
Please explain why?
I’m not bashing CJF, he’s a wonderful shooter, best at 3pt FG%, I hope he gets back ASAP, and contributes to Iowa wins, but to say he’s better than Garza? That seems to be unsupported hyperbole.
Wait, so you use ratings for defense (from college basketball reference) to say who is the best and who is the worst on the Iowa roster. But, then, when I use the same ratings from the offensive end to show CJF rates higher than Garza, then you use other stats? Hmmm ... don't you love stats?
Maybe you will now understand that defensive ratings are not the end all/be all to use for who the best and worst defensive player is. To think that Pemsl and/or Kriener are clearly better defenders than CJF shows you that.
And, yes, I know Garza is a better offensive player than CJF.
The point being made is not that people think that Frederick is a better offensive player than Garza ... no one in their right mind would think that. What is being said is that using the same metrics you cite for Defense to say that Frederick is a poor Defensive player, are the same metrics saying Frederick is the best Offensive player in the team - even better than Garza.
You use the Defensive Efficiency Rating to show why Frederick is a bad defender. People are citing the Offebsive Efficiency Rating, which has Frederick above Garza and the best on the team.
What we are saying is the metrics might have some validity but using them as the be-all and definitive way to judge the player is probably not correct. Where I might agree with you is that the 4 Guard line-up might contribute to a weaker rebounding line-up.
Please explain to us your comment on which numbers “aren’t the end all/be all” and which numbers are? And why?Wait, so you use ratings for defense (from college basketball reference) to say who is the best and who is the worst on the Iowa roster. But, then, when I use the same ratings from the offensive end to show CJF rates higher than Garza, then you use other stats? Hmmm ... don't you love stats?
Maybe you will now understand that defensive ratings are not the end all/be all to use for who the best and worst defensive player is. To think that Pemsl and/or Kriener are clearly better defenders than CJF shows you that.
And, yes, I know Garza is a better offensive player than CJF.
Why does CJ guard the other teams best guard every game? Why does the head coach say hes the teams best perimeter defender. CJ does a ton more than just shoot 3s ...the offense flows so much better when he is on court....hes a terrific passer, and creator, and makes HUGE shots.....we wont miss him at all.....good news like I said hes out the next five games so we should easily go 5-0 with out him.
That's easy when you do good things in the only 4 minutes you play a game
Actually, that would be your job to explain why using defensive metrics to rate players is in stone for you, but not offensive metrics. I mentioned offensive rating and then you pulled out 10 other stats to measure one player over another. Why is one defensive metric OK to use, not not one offensive metric?
Stats are to be used in context. Owenhawk explained it better than I can in post #54 above. Read it ... slowly.
I just quickly checked 4 games in January. We outrebounded NW, Rutgers, Michigan and Wisconsin. You can check more games if you want but when we rebound with the 4 guard lineup we are pretty good.
100% agree. Not sure if you are arguing with me or not? I’m in the same page with you on his value.
these are a few stats on CJ
58 assists
31 TO's
17 steals
4 blocks
and has been noted CJ draws the other teams best player. now I never coached college BB but I do know that you never put your worst defender on the other teams best player.
now as for JT he leads the team in steals while playing like a FR even though a certain poster insists that he play like a SR or 5* 1 n done.
to date these are his stats
70 assists for a 2.7 apg 2nd best on the team
51 TO's in 26 games,
33 steals
81% from the FTL on 47 of 58 shooting.
6-28 from 3 for 20.1%
Connor as a FR was 6-29 for 20.7%
this season he is 24-77 for 31.2 % from 3.
funny how that worked out. a FR improving now who would have thunk it. these metric's don't really mean anything as they are actually Human's and not robots that are programed for perfection to satisfy someone expectation of perfection.
looking at the adj D
17-18 242nd
18-19 111th
19-20 87th with a high of 76th. with 5 regular season games to go.
that is improving not regressing.
58 assists
31 TO's
17 steals
4 blocks
and has been noted CJ draws the other teams best player. now I never coached college BB but I do know that you never put your worst defender on the other teams best player.
now as for JT he leads the team in steals while playing like a FR even though a certain poster insists that he play like a SR or 5* 1 n done.
to date these are his stats
70 assists for a 2.7 apg 2nd best on the team
51 TO's in 26 games,
33 steals
81% from the FTL on 47 of 58 shooting.
6-28 from 3 for 20.1%
Connor as a FR was 6-29 for 20.7%
this season he is 24-77 for 31.2 % from 3.
funny how that worked out. a FR improving now who would have thunk it. these metric's don't really mean anything as they are actually Human's and not robots that are programed for perfection to satisfy someone expectation of perfection.
looking at the adj D
17-18 242nd
18-19 111th
19-20 87th with a high of 76th. with 5 regular season games to go.
that is improving not regressing.
actually just a straight line kind of guy who doesn't rely on metrics to judge players [human beings] on.
human last I checked weren't perfect and do make mistakes.
Why would this team want to go away from the 4 guard line-up (when CJ is healthy)? When Fran was forced to move to this sort of rotation the entire team started playing way way better.
In an odd way you could argue that Nunge going down and forcing Connor to the 4 has helped this team way more than hurt it.
In an odd way you could argue that Nunge going down and forcing Connor to the 4 has helped this team way more than hurt it.
when CJ returns the lineup will look like this
JT
CJ
JW
CM
LG
be will be JT and CJ's backup
Pemsl will back up CM
RK will back up LG
with RT playing as needed.
looking ahead to the 20-21 season the lineup could look like this
JT backup AU
CJ backup JBo
JW backup Kris Murray
CM backup Pemsl
LG backup Nunge
PM may not be able to play because of health issues
Perkins limited backup minutes
Keegan Murray will depend on if Pemsl returns then he just might be the solid backup to CM
Ogundele has stated that he will not RS so he can play and learn under LG
the best thing is that none of the incoming FR will/are going to be needed to be major contributors.
getting the feeling that Fran is getting to like a short rotation but still wants a deep bench in case of injuries and foul trouble.
JT
CJ
JW
CM
LG
be will be JT and CJ's backup
Pemsl will back up CM
RK will back up LG
with RT playing as needed.
looking ahead to the 20-21 season the lineup could look like this
JT backup AU
CJ backup JBo
JW backup Kris Murray
CM backup Pemsl
LG backup Nunge
PM may not be able to play because of health issues
Perkins limited backup minutes
Keegan Murray will depend on if Pemsl returns then he just might be the solid backup to CM
Ogundele has stated that he will not RS so he can play and learn under LG
the best thing is that none of the incoming FR will/are going to be needed to be major contributors.
getting the feeling that Fran is getting to like a short rotation but still wants a deep bench in case of injuries and foul trouble.
The 4 guard offense had the Hawks with one of the highest offensive efficiency ratings for a while....has fallen off with CJ out.
This really proves my point, let me explain...
Exhibit A. Rutgers, MI, Wis, ( you can add Illinois) were -all- @CHA, we’re -all- games vs team ranked lower in -all- the rankings, and -all- these games, IOWA, the higher ranked and favored team, was -behind- and -trailing- with ~ 5mn remaining. With the exception of WI, Fran was forced to go to the 2B lineup to close the final 5m, because in -all- of the games, -please check all the boxes- you will see that Iowa wins, like at MN, because the 2B, not the 4G, lineup prevented scoring, pleas refer to the gamecast and you will see extended straight lines, and by virtue of -defense-, applied by the 2B lineup, IOWA pulls out the wins, despite the majority of these games were played by the 4G lineup.
you do recall these games? Waaay behind late, (I say because of 4G lineup, you disagree, but that OK). Underperforming at home vs lower ranked teams, eking out wins in last minutes of games is -hardly- an endorsement for your argument.
Exhibits B. What about including games they lose into the argument? Do we omit those because they don’t support your narratives?
IU loss -12
PUR loss -8
MD - 4
Mich -8
PSU +4 (but we know the 2B lineup played the majority of the minutes and IA played great)
NEB +12 (when ever you let worst offensive player go 35m+ take more shots than POY
We clearly see that lack of rebounding correlates in losses.
66% of time in our losses, we get outrebounded
Exhibit C: nobody ever seems to want to acknowledge or admit -the best 2 wins- as per NET, came with the 2B lineup, I don’t know why that is,,,?
BTW, This post is coming live from Big Grove Brewery, I’ll be here for awhile if you college kids would like a brew...
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But Iowa is 1-0 with their 2nd best NET win...
isn’t that more important than offensive efficiency?
And this post live from Big Grove Brewery, Iowa City Iowa
Obviously...we’d be undefeated if we hadn’t gone 4 guard.
I don’t think we are saying that, but I’m looking forward to the next 5 games with renewed interest, because scoring prevention wins gamesObviously...we’d be undefeated if we hadn’t gone 4 guard.
This post live from Big Grove Brewery, Iowa City Iowa,
BTW, Big Grove launching 2 new NEIPAs tomorrow at 11, who is is?
Do you know how defensive ratings are calculated? Is it based on something like percentage of defensive possessions with a steal, block, or rebound? Or are they more subjective ratings like PFF does for football? Seems that it is the former.
I am a big fan of analytics as they can be very useful when interpreted and applied correctly. It’s much easier to do in baseball where it is just pitched v. hitter, but beyond that there are many limitations. Doesn’t mean that they’re not useful, but just have to understand what they are and what they aren’t telling you.
Obviously, Pemsl is going to get a lot more rebounds per possession than Fredrick. However, I think Fredrick is a better 1-on-1 defender than Pemsl. Fredrick can stay in front of his man and contest perimeter shots. Pemsl isn’t mobile enough to effectively guard on the perimeter, and doesn’t have the size to block / alter shots in the paint.
How ironic that the people who seem to take great delight in contradicting a thorough, well written original post lack the initiative to pen one of their own original viewpoints. It must be easier or more convenient to simplistically disagree with others.
Wango. Thank you for seeing the value in writing original thought. I try to write from a devils advocate position in order for others to see the situation from a different perspective, a perspective most haven’t considered and may contain value moving forward.
in this case, I posited that the elimination of the 4guard lineup could be a really good thing, and the used a number of arguments and evidence to support this position and now we’ve seen their 2nd best NET win of the year, despite not having their best and league leading shooter, and with their #2 scorer at 14/Gm only contribute 2pts.
I’m making a clear case for post defense, paint FG% defense, rebounding defense, defensive blocks, offensive fouls drawn, offensive rebounds, increase in FG%, will improve, with the 2B vs 4G.
I’m absolutely -not- saying that IOWA is better without CJF, I’m clearly saying that they are better without the 4G offense.
However as you suggest, there’s not a great deal of thought put into reading the entire argument and making a thought out reply because again I’m suggesting that it’s a result of:
A. Short internet attention spans, (what can I read in 7 seconds and reply in less time, maybe?)
B. It’s the pure definition of a free website, you get what you pay for,.
as I post this there probably on 3-4 readers, maybe, that will attempt to execute the fundamental communication baseline of: read, understand, reply rather prefer jumping straight to reply ( at least after 7 seconds of reading).
at any rate, I predict a big Iowa win, favored by only 2.5 pts at home, (home is usually worth 3)
I agree, I’m an old pro that is now in healthcare analytics and see the value of analytical approaches to nearly every business, sports and financial applications
I used to be like most people here and say ‘my eye test is better’ than whatever your data shows, well, as you know, the more you learn about something the more realize you don’t know about the topic.
there’s a few places to go, google PER NBA definition, and it goes into the formulas used to calculate all their defensive metrics, pretty good reads.
regarding pemsl and defense, from Fran yesterday
Q. You used your three post player lineup quite a bit, some with Cordell a little bit. What was that matchup that you liked there?
FRAN MCCAFFERY: Well it was really good defensively because it gives you big bodies on the wings, if we're in zone in particular. The thing about Cordell is he can guard a 3. A lot of people think because he's got the big frame that he can't. He's really good at that. And so it gives me the flexibility to be able to go with that lineup
Coach speak? Maybe, but let’s apply the eye test and see how many times he successfully defends the perimeter vs how many times everyone else successfully defends the perimeter
Good question though thanks
a lot of teams that use the 4G 1B have beat Iowa
Iowa using the 4G 1B for the most part are 18-8 ranked in the top 25 in both polls and are 6 seed in every bracket the best seed in Fran's tenure.
that really the only metric that matters. with CJ this team has another solid outside shooter and a very good perimeter defender.
trying to compare 6'8 Pemsl to 6'3 Fredrick when discussing rebounds make no sense, not to mention Pemsl plays closer to the basket than Fredrick does as he is supposed to guard the perimeter while Pemsl is used to guard the Basket.
the lower scoring leads to fewer possessions for their opponent, this year it is out of necessity not because Fran wants to do it.
I hate the phrase NEXT YEAR but in this case it was never more accurate on the number of healthy bodies. listing the player with their height
will show just how much versatility Fran will have with the line ups.
PG/1 6'0 Toussaint backup 6'2 Ulis
SG/2 6'3 Fredrick backup 6'1 Jordan with 6'4 Perkins
WG/3 6'6 Weezy backup 6'7.5" Kris Murray
WG/3/4 6'5 Connor backup 6'8 Pemsl/ 6'8 Keegan Murray
C/4/5 6'11 Garza backup 7'0 Nunge/ 6'11 Ogundele
not counting on Patrick until he gets medically clearance to play
Fran adds more Athletic defenders than he has had to date. this will allow him to use more full court press and man to man defense, to push the tempo even more.
Kris @ his height has a 7'0 wing span with a 35" vertical
Keegan at his height has a 7'0 wing span with a 36" vertical, those 2 on the wings will make a nitemare match up with range to 3. give these 2 2 years to get used to the College level and this group will keep making this team better for the next 4 years with no drop off.
Iowa using the 4G 1B for the most part are 18-8 ranked in the top 25 in both polls and are 6 seed in every bracket the best seed in Fran's tenure.
that really the only metric that matters. with CJ this team has another solid outside shooter and a very good perimeter defender.
trying to compare 6'8 Pemsl to 6'3 Fredrick when discussing rebounds make no sense, not to mention Pemsl plays closer to the basket than Fredrick does as he is supposed to guard the perimeter while Pemsl is used to guard the Basket.
the lower scoring leads to fewer possessions for their opponent, this year it is out of necessity not because Fran wants to do it.
I hate the phrase NEXT YEAR but in this case it was never more accurate on the number of healthy bodies. listing the player with their height
will show just how much versatility Fran will have with the line ups.
PG/1 6'0 Toussaint backup 6'2 Ulis
SG/2 6'3 Fredrick backup 6'1 Jordan with 6'4 Perkins
WG/3 6'6 Weezy backup 6'7.5" Kris Murray
WG/3/4 6'5 Connor backup 6'8 Pemsl/ 6'8 Keegan Murray
C/4/5 6'11 Garza backup 7'0 Nunge/ 6'11 Ogundele
not counting on Patrick until he gets medically clearance to play
Fran adds more Athletic defenders than he has had to date. this will allow him to use more full court press and man to man defense, to push the tempo even more.
Kris @ his height has a 7'0 wing span with a 35" vertical
Keegan at his height has a 7'0 wing span with a 36" vertical, those 2 on the wings will make a nitemare match up with range to 3. give these 2 2 years to get used to the College level and this group will keep making this team better for the next 4 years with no drop off.
The caveat I'd put on this though, is that Minnesota is nowhere near the top of the list of best offenses we've played this year, so it does make the defense look a bit better than it actually is. Overall, I'd argue that our defense this year has been mostly solid/good, and for short spurts - like the last 5 minutes of the game sunday, it has been great. Combined with how good our offense has been for most of the season, that's plenty good enough to be successful.
What can’t be discounted about MN is their home standing wins vs MD and tPSU, the league leaders came in and lost, among others, they are a very good home team,
kenpom consistently rates Iowa as ~ 100 in defense, anyway you slice that it is not good.
however, it fell from +100 on season , to 86, after MN game, so that is quite impressive, considering we have 20+ games of weighting to overcome
I would say Iowa is winning -in spite of defense- not because of it.
also of very important note: is looking at what the player packages are during those final runs, that is the unit that Fran must find a way to maximize
Let’s see what happens tonight
