Is the ‘silver lining’ in the CJF injury cloud the elimination of the 4 guard offense?

[Eternal Return]

its a bet

now how many are going to join in on the bet?

the bet I should have started was this
Iowa makes the NCAAT when posters were so sure they weren't. would leave never to return or if they don't I leave.

but if you notice no new Name, just added a couple 2's to the old one as the original was listed as taken.

Count me as one who was worried Iowa might not win another game after the Purdue game when CJF got hurt (and seemed like he might be out all year). I wouldn't have taken that bet, though, because Iowa's exceeded expectations so many times this year. But I DID NOT see both Bakari AND Pemsl putting together back-to-back monster bench performances at all. I doubt many did.

It's exciting now because if CJF can come back and Bakari and Pemsl can keep playing at a high level, Iowa will be even better going into the postseason. I would not bet against Iowa at this point. Hell, i wouldn't bet one way or the other because the B10 is still so unpredictable. You never know which version of each team will show up each night.

Anyway, I don't mean to derail you and that other guy from your betting arrangements.

 

[Gilligan222]

My guess on MSU is that Iowa will have to use a variety of personnel combinations depending on how MSU plays and who gets hot for them. I haven't seen a ton of MSU games this year, but if they're like other MSU teams, Iowa will need two bigs to limit MSU's rebounding--that's usually where MSU kills Iowa.

Iowa's gonna have to throw a lot of guards at Cassius Winston because he's a handful. Having CJF back for that game would be very good, because Joe T. will probably get into foul trouble trying to guard him and Bakari and Connor will have their hands full trying to contain him. Having CJF as an extra body for extra minutes on the perimeter would definitely help against Cassius, but that's more in terms of having more minutes from the bench to limit CW. That can still happen within the two-big alignment.

Foul trouble may determine the types of alignments Iowa will have to use against MSU, too. Having an 8-man rotation is obviously better than a 7-man rotation. And to the poster worried Pemsl and Bakari can't keep contributing like they have been, if they don't then Iowa probably won't be successful the rest of the year even if CJF comes back healthy. Iowa needs all eight guys to be contributing something each game because of the quality of the competition they'll be facing from this point forward in the regular season, the BTT, and the NCAAs.

Evelyn will be able to stay with Cass on a athletic basis as will JT. the days of slow unathletic PG's are gone.
even Ulis has been working on his game with his older brother Tyler. its showing this past HS season AS for his scoring he is on the verge of breaking Tylers career scoring record.

 

[Eternal Return]

Evelyn will be able to stay with Cass on a athletic basis as will JT. the days of slow unathletic PG's are gone.

I agree. I just worry how the officials call the game since it will be at MSU. Joe T. has been picking up two fouls within ten minutes of the start of the game quite a few times lately so Bakari will need to play a lot of minutes against Cassius. Just to keep Bakari fresh (if Joe T. is in foul trouble) Connor may have to guard Cassius at times. But I agree that Bakari and Joe T. provide good athletic defense on the perimeter.

EDIT: Joe T. was amazing the first 5-10 minutes against Ohio State. His defense to start the game pretty much won the game for Iowa because after the first ten minutes Iowa and Ohio State played about even for the rest of the game.

 

[Gilligan222]

here is where JT is sitting after 27 games
5th on the team in scoring @ 6.7 ppg
2nd on the team in assists @ 2.7 apg
1st on the team in steals @ 1.3 spg
37.3% from the field
81.4% from the FTL 3rd on the team this year behind JW and BE
26.7% from 3 and getting better with each start
his TO's are decreasing with the rare 2+ TO's now with each start.

with each start JT just keeps getting better, with another summer he will be very hard to keep from starting.

 

[Eternal Return]

here is where JT is sitting after 27 games
5th on the team in scoring @ 6.7 ppg
2nd on the team in assists @ 2.7 apg
1st on the team in steals @ 1.3 spg
37.3% from the field
81.4% from the FTL 3rd on the team this year behind JW and BE
26.7% from 3 and getting better with each start
his TO's are decreasing with the rare 2+ TO's now with each start.

with each start JT just keeps getting better, with another summer he will be very hard to keep from starting.

He should be the starter next year if he's improved because he provides so much energy on D. Even if, for some reason, he doesn't start, he should be getting a lot of minutes off the bench.

 

[Gilligan222]

He should be the starter next year if he's improved because he provides so much energy on D. Even if, for some reason, he doesn't start, he should be getting a lot of minutes off the bench.

he will get his minutes, looking at a 3 man rotation at the 1 and 2 spot beyween JB, CJ and JT.

between JB and CJ there would be a solid 3 point shooter and FT shooter on the court at all time.

this will take a lot of pressure off of JW. like I said its not who starts but its all about who is on the court and when.

even this season they are still having long stretches of scoring droughts. hopefully this will be reduced by having 2 solid 3 point shooters on the court at the same time.

this is what I am hoping for
at times
JB
CF
JW
CM
LG

for 3 minutes at a time
then
JT
CF
JW
Nunge
LG for the tall line up

even this for a 5 G lineup
JT
JB
CF
JW
CM

nice mix and match lineups to out out there to keep teams off balance.

 

[KcTo]

he will get his minutes, looking at a 3 man rotation at the 1 and 2 spot beyween JB, CJ and JT.

between JB and CJ there would be a solid 3 point shooter and FT shooter on the court at all time.

this will take a lot of pressure off of JW. like I said its not who starts but its all about who is on the court and when.

even this season they are still having long stretches of scoring droughts. hopefully this will be reduced by having 2 solid 3 point shooters on the court at the same time.

this is what I am hoping for
at times
JB
CF
JW
CM
LG

for 3 minutes at a time
then
JT
CF
JW
Nunge
LG for the tall line up

even this for a 5 G lineup
JT
JB
CF
JW
CM

nice mix and match lineups to out out there to keep teams off balance.

And looking in the more short term outlook, how do you see the player rotation for the tMSU game?
And what do you think the outcome will be?

 

[Eternal Return]

even this for a 5 G lineup
JT
JB
CF
JW
CM

nice mix and match lineups to out out there to keep teams off balance.

That grouping would be fun to watch as long as they weren't on the court together too long. Maybe in nonconference against some of those horrible NET 300 teams or maybe to spark a run if the Hawks get down against somebody.

 

[Gilligan222]

JT
CM
JW
RK
LG
with these off the bench
BE at the 1-2
Pemsl at the 3-4
CJ if he is ready at the 1-2 even a couple minutes @ the 3. his ability to cut on that ankle will determine how much he plays.
when he left the game he looked like he was done for the rest of the season. and now that he has been cleared, ITS put him in NOW.

will be could to have a solid 8 man rotation
as for the outcome IF the refs call a semi fair game Iowa will win BUT if it is called like it usually is Iowa loses.

 

[Gilligan222]

That grouping would be fun to watch as long as they weren't on the court together too long. Maybe in nonconference against some of those horrible NET 300 teams or maybe to spark a run if the Hawks get down against somebody.

just a 2-3 minute stretch or end of the game when nursing a lead with your best FT shooters on the floor. remember all to often Iowa missing FT's down the stretch and then losing.
think about this season against OSU they missed the Front end of the 1 n 1 every time, that's 6 points they didn't get a shot at. make the front end and at least they would have had 6 more points plus who knows how many they make on the 2nd FT, the game would not have ended as close as it did,

in the OSU game they went 17-25 for 68% from the FTL.

 

[Hawk-Fran1]

Sure looks like to me we need CJF,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BAD

 

[KcTo]

Kreiner and Pemsl play 38m and 8-15, 21pts, 15R, 2Bl, add to +8 rebounding and should be great evidence that having the 2B rotation is superior to the 4G,

if Joe Wieskamp averages 4 pts/gm, the team is not going to win big tough games...

 

[Hawk-Fran1]

Kreiner and Pemsl play 38m and 8-15, 21pts, 15R, 2Bl, add to +8 rebounding and should be great evidence that having the 2B rotation is superior to the 4G,

if Joe Wieskamp averages 4 pts/gm, the team is not going to win big tough games...

what they shoot from 3? better get the leagues best shooter in the lineup asap...which Fran will 100 percent do,,,,

 

[Loveblackandgold]

Sure looks like to me we need CJF,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BAD

Yes we can always use CJ.; however the big two lineup was once again good. Kriener and Pemsl put in very solid performances. If Tillman does not put on a defensive clinic, Iowa could have squeezed this one out. I am not sold the four guard lineup is the perfect formula for success.

 

[Hawk-Fran1]

Yes we can always use CJ.; however the big two lineup was once again good. Kriener and Pemsl put in very solid performances. If Tillman does not put on a defensive clinic, Iowa could have squeezed this one out. I am not sold the four guard lineup is the perfect formula for success.

CJ Will be in lineup soon...book it

 

[Loveblackandgold]

CJ Will be in lineup soon...book it

I am sure he will be and I cannot wait. CJ can play forty minutes as far as I am concerned. Has no bearing on the two big lineup. Bakari will just have to see his minutes reduced. Which is fine...Connor can run the point.

 

[KcTo]

I am sure he will be and I cannothe wait. CJ can play forty minutes as far as I am concerned. Has no bearing on the two big lineup. Bakari will just have to see his minutes reduced. Which is fine...Connor can run the point.

I agree that I’d rather see CJF in lineup than BK...

The issue is that all post jobo year, Fran sits Kriener and Pemsl (who continue to put up monster numbers) in favor of the 4G, who can’t defend, or score with the efficiency of those 2.

 

[Hawk-Fran1]

I agree that I’d rather see CJF in lineup than BK...

The issue is that all post jobo year, Fran sits Kriener and Pemsl (who continue to put up monster numbers) in favor of the 4G, who can’t defend, or score with the efficiency of those 2.

Rather see CJ than BK really duhh........not even a discussion. I would rather see CJ than anyone but Luka....Connor at pg CJ 2 JW 3 RK 4 Luka 5.....Joe T can spell whoever and BK can play 8-10min

 

[KcTo]

Yes we can always use CJ.; however the big two lineup was once again good. Kriener and Pemsl put in very solid performances. If Tillman does not put on a defensive clinic, Iowa could have squeezed this one out. I am not sold the four guard lineup is the perfect formula for success.

You’ve hit the critical point, adding CJF to the lineup, and subtracting 40m from Kriener is a net negative

BK and JoeTO must be the ones that lose minutes when CJF is back,

last 3 games kriener and Pemsl, in <40m are averaging 16pts, +9R/Gm...
That is 1st team all big ten numbers,

my grave concern with Fran is that he reverts to the porous 4G defense...

 

[RocknRollface]

Kriener is playing very well. Pemsl so so.

But last night you saw the problem in playing RK with Luka for long stretches.

Luka has to play the whole game and is to tired to be effective at the end.

Fran will probably split time between the 2 big vs 4 guard lineup once CJ is back.

The 4 guard look has been very good throughout the year with a few exceptions.

But Kriener is playing well enough to warrant being on the court allot too.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Hot and stupid take!

 

[KcTo]

Fran has been using the 4 guard offense since the Nunge injury adding ConMac to the lineup and pairing him with 3 very effective 3pt shooters and relying on their elite scoring efficiency using the 3 ball would overcome their defensive limitations with 4 guards (4G).

JoBo goes down, and Fran decides to stay with the 4G and inserting JoeT to the lineup as commenting that he “wanted Kriener as Garza backup (should foul trouble arise)”.

So this team, as configured, continues to perform poorly defensively, even further regressing recently with IU getting 15 offensive rebounds, Purdue collecting 5 offensive rebounds in the fateful 1st 3m fueling their spring to 17-2 lead, and recall on the road at jNWN, where this team gave up 8-9 off rebounds in the 1h.

it should come to nobody’s surprise that offensive rebounds lead to high 2pt FG% shots and in deed Iowa is 13th in the B1G.

Now the silver lining in all of this is that Fran is now required to play a 2 Big (2B) lineup, Garza+Kriener and with Pemsl getting all of the back up minutes at these 2 spots.

Kriener and Pemsl are both very effective rebounders at B1G level, both are plus defenders, both block shots, this will without question improve the rebounding edge, maybe winning this category, both will reduce easy 2nd Chance points. Consider Kriener now getting 30-35 minutes and Pemsl 15-20.

Recall VS MD Kriener started and Pemsl played +20m, and Iowa responded by handing the league leading Terps their worse loss of the year with their poorest offensive showing in B1G, ever.

Offensively, now add Krieners 66% 2pt FG%, his added minutes, his added FGA (what if he gets 12FGA/Gm?) and you’ve got your 3rd scorer, that plays defense. Recall TCF has been a poorer defender all year.

in addition, a 2 man game with Garza and Kriener, with either playing the post or 3pt feeder role will add higher % 3pt FGA for both, so look for that wrinkle.

In summary, I hope CJF recovers quickly and well, but I also see this 2B lineup being better equipped for playing winning B1G defense and riding Garza, Weezy’s offense to out perform while CJP is out.

We’ve been to this movie before and know how it ends....

out rebounding 27-12
points in paint 24-8
2nd Chance points
JoeTO with 3TOs in 10m

Just like at home vs Mi, Wi, Rutgers, Illinois, falling behind early and large...

but not like MD and tOSU, where Fran was forced to start the bigs
As a reminder Iowa had 16 and 19 point leads in those games
And they are KenPom top 10..
Not bottom feeder lime Purdue

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

#25 Purdue is a bottom feeder? Great analysis!

 

[KcTo]

#25 Purdue is a bottom feeder? Great analysis!

So tonight we see Fran yet again turn to the 4G lineup, against the #2 offense rebounding team in the B1G, and what would you expect to see? Anyone?

we see Iowa getting crushed on the O Boards, giving up 21, falling behind by 17 at the half.

Fran decided to go 2Big to start 2H and and what happened? Iowa outplays Purdue in 2H, outscoring Purdue by 8.

Plus 8 with the 2B or +8 (which is what we saw @ home vs MD and tOSU)
Down 17 with 4G, or -17.( which is what we saw with Mi, Wi, I’ll, and Rutgers

scoring prevention is as important: let’s look at FG %

1H Purdue shoots 49%
2H Purdue shoots 25%. And gets only 8 FGs made..

what if that defense was available the entire game like MD, tOSU, and Mn?

Does this make sense to any one else?
Why or why not?

 

[Legend12]

One of the big reasons Iowa was down so much at half was because Kriener and Pemsl were terrible in the 1st half.

They played 12:36 and combined to go 1-4 from the floor and ZERO rebounds. Kriener also threw in a TO to make sure they didn't cut into the lead. And Pemsl's defense was laughably bad. He had no idea where he was half the time.

 

[KcTo]

One of the big reasons Iowa was down so much at half was because Kriener and Pemsl were terrible in the 1st half.

They played 12:36 and combined to go 1-4 from the floor and ZERO rebounds. Kriener also threw in a TO to make sure they didn't cut into the lead. And Pemsl's defense was laughably bad. He had no idea where he was half the time.

Clearly those plays account for the 17 point 1H deficit...

Had they been given more minutes, we would have expected to see their performance regress to the mean, like we did in the 2H, and closer to Kriener’s season totals, which would have resulted in a smaller deficit and perhaps allowed Iowa to overcome in 2h.

1h Iowa starts 4G, Purdue shoots 49%
2h Iowa starts 2B, Purdue shoots 25%, only makes 8 FG...

that tells us what about the value of point prevention?