Joe Lunardi 2017-18 bracketology
- Thread starter large78
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We were in the field in last year's version... so yes - freak out. Clearly we will take whatever he predicts and lose 2-3 more games that he was thinking, so we might not even make the NIT.
Think about how many differences there are in "way too early Top 25" polls. Now expand that to 68 (or 40ish if you only care about at large). Now think about all the kids that haven't decided whether they are staying or leaving for the NBA. Now think about all the kids who haven't decided if they are transferring. Now think about where each of those kids will end up. Now post your field.
It's just a way to get clicks.
Think about how many differences there are in "way too early Top 25" polls. Now expand that to 68 (or 40ish if you only care about at large). Now think about all the kids that haven't decided whether they are staying or leaving for the NBA. Now think about all the kids who haven't decided if they are transferring. Now think about where each of those kids will end up. Now post your field.
It's just a way to get clicks.
Freak out? No. Concerning? Yes. Big 10 won't be down two years in a row so conference wins will come at a premium. I wouldn't be surprised to be back in the NIT and it sounds like some experts feel the same.
He has Wichita State as a 3 seed. Only way I see that is if they go to the AAC, which is what I'm assuming he's thinking by putting them that low of a seed. Honestly if they did make the jump to the AAC and Marshall keeps recruiting like he is, and get better players because they aren't mid major anymore, I could see them being a perennial top 5 seed and winning that conference regular season and/or tournament most years
I remember when he picked Davidson to beat Iowa.
That went well.
That went well.
Or they lose no one from their rotation that took Kentucky to the last possession and DESTROYED the MVC with the exception of @ Illinois State. He may just expect their games against Top 50 competition in the non-conference to be wins next year.
I had a hard time believing it until I looked at all the 10-12 seeds out there. There are a lot of solid programs out there like Indiana in those spots. I think our losses to IU and TCU at the end of the year put some damper on enthusiasm for the program nationally.
When you add that our leading scorer is gone I get how he left us out. I also doubt Lunardi was able to factor in how well we did without Jok in the lineup this year. I really think we will surprise people who didn't follow us closely this year.
Put me down for a way too early 8 seed projection. Garza will give us much needed presence in the paint defensively and I look for one if not all 3 of our returning guards (Moss, Dailey, Ellingson) to step up and help Bohannon and I will be surprised if Connor does not step in to his Dad's system and have some success . We are going to be fun to watch.
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Big Ten with no one in a top-3 seed (Michigan highest at a 4). Big12, Pac12, SEC, and ACC all with at least 2 teams in the 1-3 spots. No respect.
Who's earned the respect? Purdue will likely lose Swannigan, Michigan relied on several seniors and potential NBA picks, Michigan State may have 1-2 players leave for the draft, Maryland loses Melo and Dodd.
I think they key is, that in a "guard's game", the B1G doesn't have the nationally elite guards that they've usually come up with. We've been getting more of the forwards and centers recently.
This past year, the Big XII had Mason, Morris and Evans; Pac 12 had Dorsey, Ball, and I'm not sure if Trier is a PG or wing; ACC always has high level guards... the point is, the best guard in the B1G was probably Walton or Melo.
Now, if Swannigan and Bridges come back to school, I think the B1G will get more preseason respect, and I think that will translate to more non-conference marquee wins, raising the status of every school in the conference. Until we get those results, though, we'll be 3rd-4th in the pecking order.
This, I think we will be around what we finished this year, maybe even a little worse. We will still be a young team next year. Looking at Minny, NW, MD, MSU are all returning a solid core like Iowa. The problem is majority of their players are upper classmen next year and Iowa will still be playing with freshman/sophomores.
I think we will be a bubble team again next year. This group has to learn defense before they can begin to think about finishing higher. Can't beat teams 98-97 every night. At some point someone is going to figure you out and find your weakness. The past 2-3 years its been guard defense.
The Big Ten certainly proved it was better than the respect given in 2016/17. Our seedings in the NCAA proved rather unfortunate.
I think Iowa has a better chance than ISU of making the tournament next year, but I expect both of them to do so. Explaining Lunardi:Lunardi has the Clowns as a 10 seed.
1. He's pretty much a moron;
2. ISU -- whether you guys like it or not -- has gotten to the point where people expect the Clones to make the Dance. Six years in a row now.
3. Iowa lost the BiG's top scorer off a team that finished 8th in a "down" conference, then lost at home in the NIT.
For the sake of accuracy...Iowa finished tied for 5th.
Iowa will get more respect when it wins more games. Has little to do with Fran's record in close games. Iowa had numerous close game wins this year (Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, can even count the Rutgers home game as a close win). And one more close win that could have likely happened if not for the bad call at Minnesota. Close losses to Nebraska, Illinois, TCU (in addition to the Minnesota game). Iowa did just fine in close games this year, teams will not win all of their close games.
To the overall respect thing for next year, Iowa could finish anywhere from 8-9 to 2-3 in the league. If the defense improves, Garza and Nunge provide instant help, Iowa could be at the high end. If Iowa still can't defend well, then the results will be the same as this year.
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