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Kenpom 2022

SotaHawk87

SotaHawk87

HB Legend
Jan 3, 2015
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Tis the time of year where kenpom really takes shape. Iowa is currently #21. What I found crazy is as of now Iowa is favored in 11 of their next 13 games and Kenny thinks they will win 8-9 of those. Big Ten is shaping up to only have 7 in the dance, it’s looking more and more like 10-10 in league will be the number that gets Iowa in the show. Another key number is saying in the top 32 of Kenpom. Since 2015 my quick count only had two teams that didn’t dance being in the top 32 of Kenpom.

Going to Dance barring meltdown:
Illinois
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Purdue

Going to be close:
Iowa
Indiana

Not looking good:
Rutgers
Penn State
NW
Minnesota
Maryland
Michigan

Sit the F Down:
Nebraska
 
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I said weeks ago I thought the Hawkeyes could go 10-10. I still think so, but it ain't gonna be easy. Perhaps the emergence of Kris Murray will help make it happen. And I agree that a .500 league record should get Iowa into the NCAA and then, as usual, it all depends on matchups.
 
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SotaHawk87 said:
Tis the time of year where kenpom really takes shape. Iowa is currently #21. What I found crazy is as of now Iowa is favored in 11 of their next 13 games and Kenny thinks they will win 8-9 of those. Big Ten is shaping up to only have 7 in the dance, it’s looking more and more like 10-10 in league will be the number that gets Iowa in the show. Another key number is saying in the top 32 of Kenpom. Since 2015 my quick count only had two teams that didn’t dance being in the top 32 of Kenpom.

Going to Dance barring meltdown:
Illinois
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Purdue

Going to be close:
Iowa
Indiana

Not looking good:
Rutgers
Penn State
NW
Minnesota
Maryland
Michigan

Sit the F Down:
Nebraska
Click to expand...
And #22 in NET. Fran was onto something with our non con schedule. Margin of victory matters more than it did on RPI. Wins on neutral vs Utah St and at Virginia also huge. Just get more wins and we in with these metrics!
 
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OP good information.

Iowa and Indian are in dogfight for 7th bid. I guess I wouldn't rule out Michigan because they have
a lot of young talent and could get their act together.

Iowa getting to 10-10 depends on coaching. I personally doubt Fran gets them to that record...KrisM recent play does force Fran's hand a little. Hard to justify keeping him down at 20 min/game PT level.
 
HawkLogic said:
OP good information.

Iowa and Indian are in dogfight for 7th bid. I guess I wouldn't rule out Michigan because they have
a lot of young talent and could get their act together.

Iowa getting to 10-10 depends on coaching. I personally doubt Fran gets them to that record...KrisM recent play does force Fran's hand a little. Hard to justify keeping him down at 20 min/game PT level.
Click to expand...
We can help make a difference in Carver too as a fanbase. I am hoping to make 2-3 of the upcoming games at home. Some 6pm starts too finally that help.
 
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Chishawk1425 said:
And #22 in NET. Fran was onto something with your non con schedule. Margin of victory matters more than it did on RPI. Wins on neutral vs Utah St and at Virginia also huge. Just get more wins and we win with these metrics!
Click to expand...
Exactly! You do risk hurting yourself if you can’t beat the heck out of those bad teams but Iowa crushed them and that’s what they needed to do.
 
HawkLogic said:
OP good information.

Iowa and Indian are in dogfight for 7th bid. I guess I wouldn't rule out Michigan because they have
a lot of young talent and could get their act together.

Iowa getting to 10-10 depends on coaching. I personally doubt Fran gets them to that record...KrisM recent play does force Fran's hand a little. Hard to justify keeping him down at 20 min/game PT level.
Click to expand...
You’re not wrong! Only thing that will hurt Michigan is I think they need to be 12-8 or 11-9 in the league to dance due to OOC. Although if metrics stay decent they might be one of those ass 18-15 teams that get a bid.
 
SotaHawk87 said:
Margin of victory is capped at 10 points but adjusted efficiency for O and D metrics drives that overall ranking. These two nerds do a solid NCAA hoops podcast and explained it in depth but to your point that’s for Kenpom not NET.
Click to expand...
Yep! We couldn't have made any more hay or wine out of the grapes of the non con schedule. Masterful handling of it.
 
“While the NET says that it caps the impact of the margin of victory, some still criticize it because the efficiency component is most likely still not capped. This is still technically speculation because seemingly no one knows the official algorithm used to generate the rankings.” From the article regarding NET. We know it’s not capped for Kenpom.
 
It is hard to know where the team is headed. It was largely an inexperienced group to start the season with Garza and Weiskamp scoring gone. It has the ability to be better defensively than previous versions. It appears that scoring is not a problem. All the losses, to this point, have been against ranked teams with 3 of them road losses. Other than the ISU loss they ended up being close games. My question, Is the team growth enough to win some road games and protect the home court against a ranked team?

The home games remaining against currently ranked teams are Purdue and Michigan State, with a road game left at Illinois. The remaining games are all winnable home or away. The stretch between now and mid February has been good most years, but there has been the team fades in the last two weeks of a season. It seems like Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin are shoe-ins to be in the top four. Spot four is up for grabs and Iowa could be a contender if the team growth continues. I like the depth of the team and it showed up in the second half of the Indiana game. It gives me hope Iowa won't do a fade.
 
I question Ken's formula if he has Iowa at #21. The resume just doesn't support them as being a top 25 team. If there is any data from last season that is being pulled in at this point then it's worth very little.
 
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SotaHawk87 said:
Tis the time of year where kenpom really takes shape. Iowa is currently #21. What I found crazy is as of now Iowa is favored in 11 of their next 13 games and Kenny thinks they will win 8-9 of those. Big Ten is shaping up to only have 7 in the dance, it’s looking more and more like 10-10 in league will be the number that gets Iowa in the show. Another key number is saying in the top 32 of Kenpom. Since 2015 my quick count only had two teams that didn’t dance being in the top 32 of Kenpom.

Going to Dance barring meltdown:
Illinois
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Purdue

Going to be close:
Iowa
Indiana

Not looking good:
Rutgers
Penn State
NW
Minnesota
Maryland
Michigan

Sit the F Down:
Nebraska
Click to expand...
Need to win 2 of the next 3 imo
 
UNC drops from 24 to 36 after their ass beating tonight. What a massive drop for a game in January.
 
SDHawkDoc said:
I question Ken's formula if he has Iowa at #21. The resume just doesn't support them as being a top 25 team. If there is any data from last season that is being pulled in at this point then it's worth very little.
Click to expand...
Ok, glad you’re not on the selection committee. 😉

I wonder if COVID won’t continue to impact us the rest of the season. So far we’ve been lucky, but I also think Fran does a good job of managing the risk. Some other teams aren’t doing so well. And we have the depth to compete even if we lose 2-3-4 guys for a game, assuming they aren’t named Keegan.
 
Chishawk1425 said:
Fair but it does compared to RPI. Our RPI is in the 60s right now I believe last I had saw.
Click to expand...
The games against the bad teams still matter in that Iowa's profile is going to be hurt by the larger number of games against Quad 4 teams. They have opportunity to pick up good wins in the Big 10, but the overall profile may suffer relative to NET a bit due to the number of bad teams.
 
SotaHawk87 said:
Margin of victory is capped at 10 points but adjusted efficiency for O and D metrics drives that overall ranking. These two nerds do a solid NCAA hoops podcast and explained it in depth but to your point that’s for Kenpom not NET.
Click to expand...
”…Those two nerds…..” hahaha

Speaking of KenPom, IOWA Def Efficiency is at #158, and in terms of the KenPom top 20, would be 2 standard deviations from the mean, with the next closest being #65 and #53.

what % of teams with a 158 rating make it to the 2nd weekend?
what % of teams make it to the semi finals of the B1G?
 
KcTo said:
”…Those two nerds…..” hahaha

Speaking of KenPom, IOWA Def Efficiency is at #158, and in terms of the KenPom top 20, would be 2 standard deviations from the mean, with the next closest being #65 and #53.

what % of teams with a 158 rating make it to the 2nd weekend?
what % of teams make it to the semi finals of the B1G?
Click to expand...

I looked at those numbers once. Let me see if I can dig them up(teams with an AdjO/AdjD 100+)
 
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I looked at the stats once and it doesn’t look good for Iowa to make the Sweet 16, something like 4% of the teams that make the tourney with an AdjD of 100+ made it past the first weekend.
Click to expand...

I’m pretty sure that applied to AdjO as well. Right around 1 team/year with an AdjO/D at a pre tourney 100+Makes the second weekend.
 
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TheTruthTheWholeTruth said:
I’m pretty sure that applied to AdjO as well. Right around 1 team/year with an AdjO/D at a pre tourney 100+Makes the second weekend.
Click to expand...
There is always the 1 outlier that makes huge upset and plays sometimes plays another outlier to get in

or, every year, 31 of the 32 teams to make S16 have AdjD of <100.

and, IOWA playing at AdjD levels near 100 are always playing against terribly high odds to advance.

good stuff, thanks

plus, For the love of God and a real chance at S16 can @Fran you 1x play your defensive players most?
 
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