If you can get Minnesota in a close game they just don't know how to close. Of course that could change but we didn't play great in the Barn and still found a way to come back and win.
While correct, that is simply because Iowa is closer to Minnesota in skill level. It is not because Iowa won the first two games. The probability of them winning the third game is around the same likelihood they win they won the first and second games. The fact that Iowa won the first two games doesn't change the probability of Iowa winning the third. There's close to a 50% chance they lose, just like there was when we last played them.
I absolutely, completely agree with everything you said, and this is the exact situation to where the "hard to beat a team 3 times..." argument applies....if you beat a team your equal twice in a row, your luck might be running out.
Sure you could think of it that way, but winning twice still doesn't change the probability of winning the third game. If you flip a coin and get heads twice in a row, the probability of flipping heads is still 50% on the third try. The probability doesn't lessen just because you flipped heads the first two times.
Well what's the odds of beating NW twice? They're up at half 31 -29...