Live Bracketology Simulation

[SotaHawk87]

Today’s the day boys!! Will be running my simulation for Bracketology. All results will go through conference tournaments and will be posting on here for fun for anyone with a slow Monday! Did it last year and didn’t post but it took about five hours. Ended up with only 65/68 teams correct (auto bids I defaulted to actual conference winners).. hope you enjoy..

 

[StormHawk42]

Every year I tell myself I’m gonna get into doing my own but then I never find the time. Kudos to you sir.

And yes that’ll be nice to check out on what should be a crappy night weather wise.

 

[SotaHawk87]

First fun one-- Utah State has won the MWC Conference tournament.. They also beat Nevada at the end of the regular season though so it will be interesting if they would have been considered for an at large anyway..

Regular Season Champs for P6-- Duke, K State, Nova, Purdue, Washington, Tennessee

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Looking forward to the results!

 

[SotaHawk87]

Locked in— question for someone. Can you play consecutive years in Dayton?

68. Norfolk State (MEAC)
67. Texas Southern (SWAC)
66. Rider (MAAC)
65. Robert Morris (NEC)
64. Bucknell (Patriot League)
63. Sam Houston (Southland)

 

[SotaHawk87]

15’s

62. Radford
61. Georgia St (upset conf winner)
60. Loyola Chicago
59. Montana

14’s

58. Harvard (upset conf winner)
57. UC Irvine
56. N. Kentucky
55. Vermont

Already not a huge fan of how many favorites are winning conference tournaments. Usually doesn’t work that way..

 

[SotaHawk87]

13’s

54. South Dakota St
53. W. Kentucky (conf winner upset)
52. Murray State (conf winner upset)
51. New Mexico State

12 seeds

50. Hofstra (CAA winner)
49. Lipscomb (ASun winner)
48. UNC Greensboro (Socon winner)
47. VCU (A-10 winner)

Alright.. now to the drawing board for projected quad work.. be back in a few hours!

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Locked in— question for someone. Can you play consecutive years in Dayton?

68. Norfolk State (MEAC)
67. Texas Southern (SWAC)
66. Rider (MAAC)
65. Robert Morris (NEC)
64. Bucknell (Patriot League)
63. Sam Houston (Southland)

Yes - you can play in Dayton any year you are selected as a final at large or final auto qualifier. There is not a carryover criteria applied to limit exposure to Dayton.

 

[SotaHawk87]

#1 overall seed is Duke, #2 Tennessee, #3 Gonzaga..

Debate is between Kentucky and Virginia for last #1 seed. Kentucky won the SEC tournament and Virginia lost to UNC in the ACC semis.. Kentucky’s only loss down the stretch was at Tennessee and Virginia won tonight at UNC..

 

[SotaHawk87]

1 seeds (and these game totals for some reason might be off by 1)

1. Duke
2. Tennessee
3. Gonzaga
4. Virginia

2 seeds

5. Kentucky (29-6)
6. Purdue (27-7)
7. Michigan (30-5)
8. UNC (26-8)

 

[SotaHawk87]

3 seeds

9. Villanova (29-5)
10. Kansas (25-8) don’t like this
11. Michigan State (25-8)
12. Marquette (28-6)

 

[SotaHawk87]

4 seeds

13. Houston (30-4)
14. Kansas State (25-8)
15. Wisconsin (23-9)
16. LSU (26-7)

5 seeds

17. Nevada (30-4)
18. Iowa (26-7)
19. Washington (29-6)
20. Iowa State (25-9)

 

[SotaHawk87]

So 40/68 spots taken..

Louisville, Va Tech, Texas Tech, Maryland, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida State now being evaluated..

 

[FranklinHawk]

So I assume that has Iowa at 25-6 regular season and 1-1 in BTT? 6-1 in the final stretch run, I could handle that.

 

[StormHawk42]

Will you be posting your methodology? I’ll be interested to see how Washington got all the way up there.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Will you be posting your methodology? I’ll be interested to see how Washington got all the way up there.

They win out.. which in my opinion is about as bad as Kansas being at 10 or 11 overall.. it’s just a simulation not my picks

 

[SotaHawk87]

6 seeds

21. Maryland (25-9)
22. Texas Tech (25-8)
23. Va Tech (24-8)
24. Florida State (24-8)

 

[SotaHawk87]

Florida at 17-14 no longer considered for a spot.. Oregon also a long shot out.. Seton Hall (7-11 big east) out.. Arkansas 18-14 out as well

 

[SotaHawk87]

SEC teams still considered are as follows.. no order..

Miss State (22-10)
Auburn (22- 11)
Ole Miss (20-13)
Alabama (20-12)

Big Ten teams remaining
Ohio State (21-12)
Minnesota (21-12)

Indiana finished 7-13 in the league FWIW..

 

[SotaHawk87]

Baaaad news in the Big East helping the little guys and Minnesota, Ole Miss, Alabama, UCF, Temple possibly

Butler finished 17-15
Georgetown finished 18-14

 

[SotaHawk87]

7 seeds

25. Cincy (27-7)
26. Auburn (22-11)
27. Louisville (22-11)
28. Ohio State (21-12)

8 seeds

29. Buffalo (30-4)
30. Saint Johns (24-9)
31. Texas (19-13)
32. Mississippi State (22-10)

 

[SotaHawk87]

VCU won the A10 tournament UNCG won the SOCON but based off teams available Wofford still in decent shape..

 

[SotaHawk87]

9 seeds

33. Syracuse
34. TCU (22-10)
35. Baylor (20-13)
36. Arizona State

10. Seeds

37. Minnesota (21-12)
38. Ole Miss (21-12)
39. NC State
40. Alabama

 

[SotaHawk87]

11 seeds

41. Utah State
42. Clemson

43. Wofford (25-4) vs 46. UCF (23-9)
44. Temple (23-10) vs 45. Creighton (21-13)

 

[SotaHawk87]

Now I have to go back and make sure I caught every conference champion, auto qualifier, etc.. But that’s your preliminary seed list..

 

[SotaHawk87]

Obviously y’all can’t see the results but is a 17-14 Florida in over a 23-10 Temple? Florida’s NET would be projected to be quite a bit better than Temple but that’s a pathetic record..

 

[SotaHawk87]

Based off this simulation I would say Iowa might need one more but I doubt it.. I don’t even see how Temple could get in with 10 losses.. Iowa’s resume at 19-13 would still have a lot more meat on it than Temple, UCF, or Creighton!

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Obviously y’all can’t see the results but is a 17-14 Florida in over a 23-10 Temple? Florida’s NET would be projected to be quite a bit better than Temple but that’s a pathetic record..

I think it's Florida there. Efficiency and NET both favor them.