Lunardi had us first 4 out
- Thread starter hawksense
- Start date
Beat Illinois and Hawks are right there on the 'cut line'.
+ win first BTT game, but lose next one = tense Selection Sunday, but an outside chance at what would be a likely First Four bid
+ 2 wins in the BTT = playing for seeding/placement vs semifinal opponent next Saturday
- Beat ILL but lose first BTT game = a Top 16 NIT seed
Lose to Illinois and Hawks might squeak into the First Four if make it to the BTTCG, but will likely need to win the autobid.
+ win first BTT game, but lose next one = tense Selection Sunday, but an outside chance at what would be a likely First Four bid
+ 2 wins in the BTT = playing for seeding/placement vs semifinal opponent next Saturday
- Beat ILL but lose first BTT game = a Top 16 NIT seed
Lose to Illinois and Hawks might squeak into the First Four if make it to the BTTCG, but will likely need to win the autobid.
I've been a bit more generous with the Hawks chances. I think 2 more wins will do it. That might be a loss to Illinois and then 2 in the Big Ten Tournament, the second of which would have to be a Q1 win.
If we beat Illinois but drop a Q2 matchup in the Big Ten tourney then I think we're feeling really bubbly, leaning out. If we beat Illinois and lose a Q1 matchup because we got the double bye, then I think we're leaning in.
Of course the X-factor might be NET ratings. Minnesota is still right on the line where we could have two wins bumped up a tier. But Maryland is also near the cut line and could give us another Q3 loss. If both those teams stay better than #75 then I think we're in a much better spot.
If we beat Illinois but drop a Q2 matchup in the Big Ten tourney then I think we're feeling really bubbly, leaning out. If we beat Illinois and lose a Q1 matchup because we got the double bye, then I think we're leaning in.
Of course the X-factor might be NET ratings. Minnesota is still right on the line where we could have two wins bumped up a tier. But Maryland is also near the cut line and could give us another Q3 loss. If both those teams stay better than #75 then I think we're in a much better spot.
BirdistheWord
HR Heisman
We just need Josh Dix to continue shooting 80% for the rest of his natural life and we'll be fine.
This makes sense but I feel like every year I’m surprised how little the committee seems to take the BTT into account. If we lose to Illinois I think anything short of winning the BTT and we are going to be disappointed. I hope to be wrong though.
Beat Illinois and I think they are in regardless of BTT results. The committee loves teams playing well at the end of the year.
I liked these posts because I truly hope you're right.
Just don't share that level of confidence.
I am thinking that even with a win against Illinois, the Hawks need to beat their 11/12/13/14-seeded opponent a week from today/tonight to not be really sweating out the rest of the weekend up to & during the Selection Show.
But no matter what, Iowa should win the BTT regardless. Not only does it 1000% ensure a bid, but I love watching as much of Champ. Week as possible before Iowa's exit ruins my enjoyment of the rest of week/end.
The greatest 4 days in sports is a lot more fun with the Hawks involved.....that's for sure. really hoping they get in, but if they do not, they need to look nowhere else but at the last 3:00 minutes of the home Maryland game. 6 point lead with 3:00 minutes to go at home against a very below average team.
I know every team around the bubble has some what-ifs, and should'ves, but tournament worthy teams need to get the job done there. That game will keep them out, IMO, unless they win Sunday and two games in the BTT.
I know every team around the bubble has some what-ifs, and should'ves, but tournament worthy teams need to get the job done there. That game will keep them out, IMO, unless they win Sunday and two games in the BTT.
That Maryland guard could have scored 100 points in both games against Iowa. Totally defenseless in stopping him.
Iowa needs to win Sunday and probably make the finals to have a realistic shot. Even then, Iowa seems to get the short end of the stick more often than not when it comes to being on the bubble. I suppose if they pick up a win over Purdue, that would help but that is also unlikely.
Lose to Illinois and it's over, barring an unlikely BTT title.
Beat Illinois and they have a chance. They'd finish the regular season as high as a tie for 3rd (unlikely) or 6th. A win in the BTT gets them to 20 wins. Two wins in the BTT gets them in the semi-finals. I think that's what they need.
Beat Illinois and they have a chance. They'd finish the regular season as high as a tie for 3rd (unlikely) or 6th. A win in the BTT gets them to 20 wins. Two wins in the BTT gets them in the semi-finals. I think that's what they need.
BirdistheWord
HR Heisman
If we beat IL, we are essentially in…but can’t skip the BTT. One more win (BTT) and we are definitely in. If we lose our first game in BTT I think we just miss.
To me:
1) beat ILL but lose 1st game has Iowa totally on the bubble and dependent on others - rooting for Indiana State over Drake tomorrow as Drake would be a bid stealer imo.
*last I heard, it's still mathematically possible to have a top 4 seed, so if first loss on Friday, idk that a possible quad 1 loss sinks iowa depending on the opponent.
2) beat ILL and win at least 1 game in conference tourney to avoid one more bad loss I think they're at least in first 4. make it to semis and i think they're safely in the field of 64.
3) lose to ILL, semis are bare minimum needed, probably more, depending on what happens elsewhere.
As I think most have noted at some point, it's our own fault if we don't get in. That Michigan loss, and the any of the two losses to Maryland, or @Penn State in particular were killers. Win 2 of them and we're probably safely in at this point.
Stoked to be in this position tho - 3 weeks ago we were dead in the water.
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