NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years
6:43 PM CT
February 15, 2020
Big Ten
Locks: Maryland, Penn State
Should be in
Michigan State Spartans
After ending their three-game losing streak with a 70-69 win at Illinois, the Spartans find themselves outside of the AP Top 25 yet still projected as a No. 5 seed in the tournament field. Moreover, MSU's tumultuous season of ups and downs has resulted in at least one outcome we were expecting in the preseason: Michigan State can still claim the Big Ten's best defense in conference play. If the offense is turnover-prone and perhaps a bit too reliant on
Cassius Winston, it also possesses one of the more accurate 3-point shooting rotations in the league. MSU would not be an ordinary No. 5 seed.
Iowa Hawkeyes
We've established that Iowa is not good at playing basketball within the boundaries of the state of Indiana. In losses at Purdue and at Indiana, the Hawkeyes were outscored by a total of 48 points. A 38-point effort from
Luka Garza wasn't enough to keep Iowa in Thursday's game against IU, and now Fran McCaffery's team will try to preserve or even improve its expected No. 6 seed in the next few days against Minnesota (in Minneapolis), Ohio State (Iowa City) and Michigan State (East Lansing). This is still the best offense in Big Ten play by a wide margin, but the defense is closing in on Northwestern's for No. 14 status.
Ohio State Buckeyes
For the moment, Ohio State sports an impressive 5-6 record in Quad 1 contests. The fifth and most recent win for the projected No. 7 or 8 seed came by 16 over Purdue in Columbus, and the Boilermakers could drop below No. 30 in the NET rankings and thus relocate the contest retroactively to Quad 2. In any event, the Buckeyes appear to be rounding into form for the first time since December. Chris Holtmann's team has won five of its last six to reach .500 (7-7) in the Big Ten, no mean feat, surely. The Wesson brothers, Kaleb and Andre, have connected on a combined 45% of their tries from beyond the arc in conference play, leading the charge for the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the league.
Illinois Fighting Illini
After slipping and falling awkwardly on the final play against Michigan State,
Ayo Dosunmu didn't play in the Illini's 15-point loss at Rutgers. Illinois has lost four in a row, and the challenge grows only more severe as Brad Underwood's team next faces a road test at Penn State. The Illini were being pictured as a No. 7 seed prior to the loss in Piscataway, though that position will be subject to revision downward based on Dosunmu's availability and on what the rest of the field is doing. Over its past three games, Illinois has converted just 37% of its 2-point attempts.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (@MrsScrew !!!)
Rutgers hasn't lost a home game since last March, a fact that will be of some interest to the opponents yet to play their scheduled games at the RAC: Michigan and Maryland. The Scarlet Knights have held steady for the past two weeks on the No. 8 line in mock brackets, and Ron Harper is coming off a 27-point performance in his team's 72-57 win at home over Illinois. After a 29-year absence from the NCAA tournament, Rutgers is making the unthinkable an afterthought. Not only is Steve Pikiell's team going to the tournament, it's going to earn a good seed.
Wisconsin Badgers
In two games against Nebraska, the Badgers hit 33 3s and scored a combined 1.17 points per possession. Greg Gard's team is showing up in mock brackets as a No. 8 seed, and four of Wisconsin's remaining six games will take place in Madison. Don't be shocked if the Badgers improve their seed and save themselves the trouble of a round of 32 game against a No. 1 seed. (Not that such a game was an insuperable obstacle for Wisconsin in 2017. Duly noted.)
Michigan Wolverines
It's been a good 80 minutes for the Wolverines. After beating Michigan State by nine in Ann Arbor, Juwan Howard's team blew Northwestern away 79-54 in Evanston, Illinois. The latter game represented the first victory by greater than 11 points for U-M in weeks. Now you're looking at a projected No. 8 seed that's 6-7 in the league and ranked in the top 35 in the NET. Michigan's been the most accurate 2-point shooting team in Big Ten play by a wide margin, while the Wolverines' past two opponents have connected just 37% of the time inside the arc. Again, a good 80 minutes.
Work to do
Purdue Boilermakers
The Watch does not wish to wax apocalyptic and label an expected No. 9 or 10 seed like Purdue as being in trouble. Let us remark instead that Matt Painter's team isn't looking all that hot lately. The Boilermakers have lost their last two games, at home against Penn State and on the road at Ohio State, by a combined 28 points. Across those 80 minutes of basketball, opponents have outscored Purdue 69 to 24 from beyond the arc. Carsen Edwards isn't walking through that door, of course, so this current crop of Boilers will seek to address the gaping imbalance starting with the team's next game, at Wisconsin.
Indiana Hoosiers
We'll never know, but things might have been even more dire for Indiana than commonly realized in advance of the Hoosiers' crucial 89-77 victory at home over Iowa. Before that game, IU was sporting a No. 64 NET ranking, a perilously low placement that put Archie Miller's team below the nondiscussed likes of Tennessee, Providence and Washington. Now, you're looking at a projected No. 11 seed with wins over Florida State, Michigan State and Ohio State in addition to the victory over the Hawkeyes. Peril still lurks in the remaining Big Ten schedule, and Indiana plays four of its next five on the road. Nevertheless, the Hoosiers are at least still in the game having notched a pivotal win.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Say for the sake of discussion that Minnesota would not make the tournament if the selection occurred today. After all, that seems to be the consensus mock-bracket opinion regarding a team that's 12-11 overall and 6-7 in its conference. Now, how do the Golden Gophers pry an at-large bid out of the committee? Win the next three games. With Iowa and Indiana coming to Minneapolis and then a road game taking place at Northwestern, Richard Pitino's group has the motive and the opportunity to get this done. Plus, with
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota has the means.
