3-1/1-1 for a 5 (or get help from MSU, Kentucky, Louisville, West Virginia, Oregon, etc.)
Add a deeper conference tourney run for a 4.
March 9 Bracketology: Bracket Matrix & ESPN have IOWA as 6 Seed; FOX Sports a 7 Seed
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
Add a deeper conference tourney run for a 4.
That’s my thought too. Need to win one on the road plus hold serve at home to get a 5.
I think any combination of 3 wins total (2-2 with 1-1 BTT or 1-3 with 2-1 BTT) will keep us at 6. If we flame out, probably no worse than 8/9.
I feel like the committee is set on us being a #6 seed and it doesn't matter what happens the rest of the season, even if we win out, we're gonna be at best a #6 seed.
Pretty sure the committee met for 2-3 days earlier this month, then will not meet again until Championship week... they're not "set" on anything. We were discussed as a potential 4 seed and have mostly treaded water dealing with injuries, so to say a 4 or 5 is not in play is just silly. There is a path to a 3, although it's very slim and probably needs help.
2011 Uconn was projected as like an #7 seed as they entered the Big East Tournament. They finished 9th in the Big East during the regular season. They went on to win the Big East Tournament and earned a 3 seed in the NCAA Tourney. A LOT can happen. This season is far from over. If Iowa were to win out, they could easily be a 3 seed. If they lose out then they could drop to a 9/10 seed. Just take it one game at a time. Play hard each game and things will fall into place.
A 3 seed would take running the table. And probably help.
I guess it's at least more possible than having the winning Powerball ticket.
I'm open to this, but can you explain your reasoning and who you're bumping down from the consensus 5 seeds?
Edit - who are you bumping down from the consensus 5 seeds?
With West Virginia’s loss tonight they are the easiest to bump. Still, I think you could make a strong case for us being seeded higher than Colorado. Identical conference record and playing in a far less superior conference than Iowa, who has statistically played one of the toughest in-conference schedules to date. Yes, beat Dayton, but Iowa has an Arsenal of Quad-1 wins.
The Nebraska loss is hurting our metrics but if Oregon is a solid 4 seed Iowa should 100% be a 5 right now and be pushing for a 4 if they can finish 2-2 & win a game in the BTT.
I'll give you the first half as reasonable. I can see an argument to put Iowa over West Virginia or Colorado (I don't agree, but there are a lot of factors to put together). However, the second part is just wrong. Oregon is a 4 seed because they have 4 Q1A wins (3 away from home). We have 2, and only one away from home. Our schedule is also not going to help us with the selection committee (91 overall, 217 non-conference).
talk about some home court advantageIf Iowa ends up in Omaha, I'd break my back to go.
A rematch with SDSt. A lot different outcome WITH Iowa winningOn Feb 24 The Stadium had Iowa as a 5 seed.
CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW
We are 16 days from Selection Sunday!
Feb 28 Update:
Link to Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Feb 28 ESPN BRACKETOLOGY:
Joe Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams. Purdue and Minnesota are OUT!
Iowa is a 6 seed in the EAST (Albany), will beat #11 Cincinnati in the 1st round and then beat #3 Seton Hall in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Dayton and #1 San Diego State (@Hawksfor3 !!) to advance to the Final 4!!!
The 10 B1G teams:
Midwest (Kansas is #1 Seed)
09 Indiana
05 Michigan State
06 Ohio State
02 Maryland
West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
05 Wisconsin
10 Rutgers (Last 4 byes; @MrsScrew !!)
East (San Diego State is #1 Seed)
04 Penn State
06 IOWA
South (Baylor is #1 Seed)
08 Illinois
05 Michigan
LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Feb 28 Update:
Link to Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Feb 28 ESPN BRACKETOLOGY:
Joe Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams. Purdue and Minnesota are OUT!
Iowa is a 6 seed in the EAST (Albany), will beat #11 Cincinnati in the 1st round and then beat #3 Seton Hall in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Dayton and #1 San Diego State (@Hawksfor3 !!) to advance to the Final 4!!!
The 10 B1G teams:
Midwest (Kansas is #1 Seed)
09 Indiana
05 Michigan State
06 Ohio State
02 Maryland
West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
05 Wisconsin
10 Rutgers (Last 4 byes; @MrsScrew !!)
East (San Diego State is #1 Seed)
04 Penn State
06 IOWA
South (Baylor is #1 Seed)
08 Illinois
05 Michigan
LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Here is an interesting discussion on how the Selection Committee gets to its 68 Team field.
As you can see, the first thing the NCAA Selection Committee members do as they start Selection Weekend is vote on teams they think are locks no matter what happens in the conference tournaments.
--Joe thinks there are 34 teams that fit this category this year
Then you have automatic qualifiers (those teams that win their conference tournaments).
--Joe thinks that will be about 23 more teams.
Therefore, there are only 11 spots available this year for 23 Bubble teams. Joe said normally there are 10-12 of these spots available for bubble teams each year.
Indiana, Rutgers (@MrsScrew) , Minnesota and Purdue are part of that 23 Bubble team list.
Watch:
As you can see, the first thing the NCAA Selection Committee members do as they start Selection Weekend is vote on teams they think are locks no matter what happens in the conference tournaments.
--Joe thinks there are 34 teams that fit this category this year
Then you have automatic qualifiers (those teams that win their conference tournaments).
--Joe thinks that will be about 23 more teams.
Therefore, there are only 11 spots available this year for 23 Bubble teams. Joe said normally there are 10-12 of these spots available for bubble teams each year.
Indiana, Rutgers (@MrsScrew) , Minnesota and Purdue are part of that 23 Bubble team list.
Watch:
If you are looking at a deep run, I’m thinking that a 6 is actually better than a 5.
Why? Is there much difference between an 11 and a 12? Probably not.
Then you’d face a 3 instead of a 4. While the 3s are better, I think Iowa would be a tough to team to prepare for on a quick one-day turn around. I happen to think that Iowa presents some rather unique match up issues that will pose problems for other teams and having one day to prepare will be a challenge for an opponent.
And I just don’t think that the teams getting 3 seeds (teams 9-12) are that much better than teams getting 4 seeds (teams 13-16) - particularly if you can draw the 11 or 12 overall seed.
After that and assuming chalk, Iowa would face a 2 rather than a 1. I happen to believe that the likely 1s are significantly better than the likely 2s. And, while I don’t think that Iowa has a great chance of beating a 2, the chances are better than beating a 1.
And then, assuming that stars align and wild wishes are granted and Iowa goes to Elite 8, the short turn around may give them a fighting chance at a NCAA shattering upset.
Yeah - it’s crazy but I actually like the road as a 6 seed better. I think it fits Iowa’s unique strengths better.
Lunardi’s latest has Iowa as a #5 seed in Cleveland facing winner of Wichita State/Utah State Round #1 early game. Creighton/Vermont on other side of bracket. Gonzaga is the projected #1.
For a deeper run, I like OSU’s route as a #6 seed than Iowa’s as a #5 seed.
http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?src=desktop
We are 13 days from Selection Sunday!
March 2 Update:
Link to Bracket Matrix (IOWA is a 5 seed): http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
March 2 ESPN BRACKETOLOGY:
Joe Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams. Purdue and Minnesota are OUT!
Iowa is a 5 seed in the WEST (Cleveland), will beat #12 (winner of ) Wichita State/Utah State in the 1st round and then beat #4 Creighton in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #1 Gonzaga and #2 Florida State (@Hawksfor3 !!) to advance to the Final 4!!!
The 10 B1G teams:
Midwest (Kansas is #1 Seed)
08 Illinois
04 Penn State
06 Ohio State
10 Indiana (last 4 byes)
West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
05 IOWA
East (San Diego State is #1 Seed)
04 Michigan State
06 Michigan
South (Baylor is #1 Seed)
05 Wisconsin
11 Rutgers (last 4 byes) (@MrsScrew)
02 Maryland
LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Last edited:
Iowa is also less likely to get refs that allow Garza to get tackled without calling a foul. So there's that.
Agree. Get Weezy and Garza the hell away from the BIG refs.
I know! And it's gotten worse as the year progressed. It seems like it happens every year. Early in conference season the refs call things like they are supposed to according to the rules and then, by midseason, they just let guys mug each other. If there's any reason why B10 teams are exhausted by the end of the year, it's the refs letting guys play rugby.
We are 9 days from Selection Sunday!
March 6 Update:
Link to Bracket Matrix (IOWA is a 6 seed): http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
March 6 ESPN BRACKETOLOGY:
Joe Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams. Purdue and Minnesota are OUT!
Iowa is a 6 seed in the SOUTH (Albany), will beat #11 Northern Iowa in the 1st round and then beat #3 Villanova in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Florida State and #1 Baylor (@Hawksfor3 !!) to advance to the Final 4!!!
The 10 B1G teams:
Midwest (Kansas is #1 Seed)
04 Wisconsin
06 Michigan
West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
05 Penn State
11 Indiana (Last 4 in)
03 Michigan State
East (San Diego State is #1 Seed)
04 Maryland
07 Illinois
South (Baylor is #1 Seed)
05 Ohio State
06 IOWA
10 Rutgers (Last 4 Byes) (@MrsScrew !!)
LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
March 6 Update:
Link to Bracket Matrix (IOWA is a 6 seed): http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
March 6 ESPN BRACKETOLOGY:
Joe Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams. Purdue and Minnesota are OUT!
Iowa is a 6 seed in the SOUTH (Albany), will beat #11 Northern Iowa in the 1st round and then beat #3 Villanova in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Florida State and #1 Baylor (@Hawksfor3 !!) to advance to the Final 4!!!
The 10 B1G teams:
Midwest (Kansas is #1 Seed)
04 Wisconsin
06 Michigan
West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
05 Penn State
11 Indiana (Last 4 in)
03 Michigan State
East (San Diego State is #1 Seed)
04 Maryland
07 Illinois
South (Baylor is #1 Seed)
05 Ohio State
06 IOWA
10 Rutgers (Last 4 Byes) (@MrsScrew !!)
LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
If Iowa finishes:
0-2, 8-seed
1-1/1-2, 7-seed
2-1/2-2, 6-seed
3-1/4-1, 5-seed
4-0/5-0, 4-seed
0-2, 8-seed
1-1/1-2, 7-seed
2-1/2-2, 6-seed
3-1/4-1, 5-seed
4-0/5-0, 4-seed
I gotta say, we get away with a lot under the basket too.
Appreciate the work, but I'd bump all those numbers up a seed.
There is zero percent chance we fall to the 8 seed. And if it'll make you feel better then it's actually even less than zero. Enjoy!
Also, you guys need to understand that Lunardi has his formula to more or less predict seeds, and not so much the matchups.
Several times, he's had Iowa playing UNI and Cincinnati and that just is not going to happen, at least as a 1st round game.
Palm has us in the East playing as a #6 vs Seton Hall #3.
Big Ten
Locks:
Maryland,
Penn State,
Michigan State,
Iowa,
Michigan,
Ohio State,
Wisconsin,
Illinois
Should be in
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Scarlet Knights earned the Quad 1 win they so badly needed, defeating Maryland 78-67 at home. Yes, at home is where all of the Rutgers victories occur (well, plus one at Nebraska), and it appears this is going to be a winning strategy. Steve Pikiell's men are now assured of a regular-season finish no worse than 19-12 to go along with a .500 record (or better) in Big Ten play. To put that in perspective, Rutgers hasn't finished .500 or above in conference play since Gary Waters led the program to an 8-8 finish in the 2002 Big East. Making school history plus a persistently eye-catching NET ranking in the 30s look like they will get the job done for the Knights in the committee room.
Work to do
Indiana Hoosiers
On the eve of Indiana's home game against Minnesota, mock brackets couldn't really agree whether the Hoosiers were barely in the projected field or if they were in with some room to spare (say, as a No. 10 seed). The key word, however, was "in," and after defeating the Golden Gophers by five, Archie Miller's team is breathing a bit easier. The upcoming Quad 1 opportunity at home against Wisconsin, for example, offers more potential reward (not least in terms of seeding at the Big Ten tournament) than peril. Call it the benefits of membership in the statistically robust Big Ten. At 19-11, IU is feeling better about its postseason chances than the Hoosiers could have imagined a month ago when they were coming off four straight losses.
Purdue Boilermakers
Now things are getting interesting. Purdue appeared bound and determined to squander that excellent top-40 NET ranking and miss out on all the bubble speculation. Indeed, the Boilermakers had fallen all the way down to "Next Four Out" status in most bracket forecasts. Then Matt Painter's team won 77-68 at Iowa, and suddenly this is a 16-14 team with the aforementioned NET approbation and victories over Virginia, Michigan State and Wisconsin as well as the season sweep over the Hawkeyes. Historically, the committee has not favored at-large candidates with overall records this close to .500, but Purdue can improve that win percentage with a victory at home over Rutgers.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...atch-updated-look-wildest-bubble-years#BigTen
Locks:
Maryland,
Penn State,
Michigan State,
Iowa,
Michigan,
Ohio State,
Wisconsin,
Illinois
Should be in
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Scarlet Knights earned the Quad 1 win they so badly needed, defeating Maryland 78-67 at home. Yes, at home is where all of the Rutgers victories occur (well, plus one at Nebraska), and it appears this is going to be a winning strategy. Steve Pikiell's men are now assured of a regular-season finish no worse than 19-12 to go along with a .500 record (or better) in Big Ten play. To put that in perspective, Rutgers hasn't finished .500 or above in conference play since Gary Waters led the program to an 8-8 finish in the 2002 Big East. Making school history plus a persistently eye-catching NET ranking in the 30s look like they will get the job done for the Knights in the committee room.
Work to do
Indiana Hoosiers
On the eve of Indiana's home game against Minnesota, mock brackets couldn't really agree whether the Hoosiers were barely in the projected field or if they were in with some room to spare (say, as a No. 10 seed). The key word, however, was "in," and after defeating the Golden Gophers by five, Archie Miller's team is breathing a bit easier. The upcoming Quad 1 opportunity at home against Wisconsin, for example, offers more potential reward (not least in terms of seeding at the Big Ten tournament) than peril. Call it the benefits of membership in the statistically robust Big Ten. At 19-11, IU is feeling better about its postseason chances than the Hoosiers could have imagined a month ago when they were coming off four straight losses.
Purdue Boilermakers
Now things are getting interesting. Purdue appeared bound and determined to squander that excellent top-40 NET ranking and miss out on all the bubble speculation. Indeed, the Boilermakers had fallen all the way down to "Next Four Out" status in most bracket forecasts. Then Matt Painter's team won 77-68 at Iowa, and suddenly this is a 16-14 team with the aforementioned NET approbation and victories over Virginia, Michigan State and Wisconsin as well as the season sweep over the Hawkeyes. Historically, the committee has not favored at-large candidates with overall records this close to .500, but Purdue can improve that win percentage with a victory at home over Rutgers.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...atch-updated-look-wildest-bubble-years#BigTen
If PU played defense in the BTT like they did against us, who knows? Might win the crown? Just don't tell that to them.
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