Maryland Fan Scouting report PT. 1 Offense

[Jbwest31]

Hey so I’m a MD fan just coming to give you some insight about our team. Feel free to ask any questions and I’ll try to answer in a non homerish way. This info is just what I have seen so far. I’m not saying Maryland can or will do all of this vs Iowa. So when I say how good our QB or receivers are, I’m not saying we’re gonna put up 50 on you. I’m just commenting on how MD has looked as a team this year.

QB: Maryland finally has a good QB!! It’s been a decade since Maryland had an even serviceable quarterback and Taulia (Lia as we call him) is way better than serviceable. He makes NFL caliber throws look easy. His strengths are his vision, pocket awareness and accuracy. His main weakness is he has a tendency to check down and play it safe.

RB: Tayon Fleet-Davis is our number one back. Maryland has had an NFL caliber HB the last 4 years. TFD is not that guy. He has fairly good stats, but it feels like they are mostly elevated by MDs passing game. He’s a decent threat in the passing game and is good at getting the yards that our Oline opens up, but you won’t see him hitting many home runs. All in all, he won’t hurt us, but also won’t win us games.

WR: MD’s best position group. #7 Dontay Demus and #5 (former 5*) Rakim Jarrett are the best WR duo in the Big 10 (possibly country) outside of Columbus. Demus is 6’4” with 4.4 speed and looks to be a round 2-4 pick. Jarrett is a COVID Freshman and probably the 3rd fastest player on the team. Demus may be our best WR now, but Jarrett looks like a first round pick. Many have him just below Diggs as our most talented WR ever. On top of that, Jeshaun Jones is a fringe NFL player and Darryl Jones/Brian Cobbs would start for many Big 10 teams. You do not wanna play man to man against us. Keep the ball away from #5 and #7 and let other beat you. The only weakness of the group is we have a lot of random wide open drops……yeah idk go figure.

TE: This position is a bit of an enigma. We have Chig (#9) who has drawn some NFL interest but him and Lia don’t seem to be on the same page. Chig has two TDs and you can see the talent, but he missed all of last year with a COVID related heart condition. So him and Lia don’t seem to be completely in sync. Our other TE Corey Dyches (#84) seems to be a star in the making. He’s a converted COVID FR WR. Unlike Chig, him and Lia seem to be completely on point together. He’ll be a beast some day, but probably not for another year.

OL: Maryland has two very good tackles in Duncan and Anderson which accounts for why our pass pro has been very good so far. Our interior line has been average at best which is why our running game hasn’t been great. Our interior line is talented but raw and will get better with experience, unfortunately, Iowa might just be that experience they need but don’t have yet.

Offensive Playcalling: Maryland like to run an uptempo no huddle (but not hurry up) offense. Early on we’ll throw out a lot of weird sets with odd screens and misdirection plays. This I’m assuming is an attempt to make defenses be prepared for anything. As the game goes on they settle into a more traditional RPO style offense. Maryland’s game plan on offense seems to almost be West Cost style at first. We will dink and dunk throwing a lot of short passes and screens to draw the safeties in and then run deep out and crossing patterns (mostly running from right to left) to free up our WRs for big plays(See #5 TD vs WVU and #7 TD vs Kent). Almost all of our runs are zone read plays.
Lia is very mobile, but is instinctually a pocket passer. We may run 2-3 designed runs a game for tops. Almost all of his rushing yards are on scrambles when the pocket collapses.

Anyways, that’s all I have for you on offense. Feel free to ask questions or tell me off. If you guys want I’ll do a defense and ST.

 

[Boomhawk52]

Thanks for the info! We run the ball and play good defense and special teams.

 

[RLMHAWK]

Thanks for the info! All ways nice to hear from other teams fan base, and their opinions. Good luck to you guys after Friday !

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

"Almost all of our runs are zone read plays.
Lia is very mobile, but is instinctually a pocket passer. We may run 2-3 designed runs a game for tops. "

Maybe I don't know what a zone read play is.....

 

[Jbwest31]

"Almost all of our runs are zone read plays.
Lia is very mobile, but is instinctually a pocket passer. We may run 2-3 designed runs a game for tops. "

Maybe I don't know what a zone read play is.....

Sorry I should have clarified that better. 2-3 designed runs for Lia. Maybe they are normal zone runs and not read plays, maybe they’re all RPOs, all I do know is Lia never keeps the ball. All of our runs are from the shotgun as Lia is almost never under center.

 

[pmtdc]

Wow, the QB and WR as well as TE are NFL caliber. WR best since Diggs?

Why did you struggle against Illinois and only put up 20?

 

[stanzithemanzi12]

Thanks for the info! We attempt to run the ball and have long since maintained the fallacy that we're a running, physical offense. We play good defense and special teams.

FIFY

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Your running backs stats are helped by your quarterbacks ability to pass and keep defenses honest?




He's a witch! Burn him!

 

[Jbwest31]

Wow, the QB and WR as well as TE are NFL caliber. WR best since Diggs?

Why did you struggle against Illinois and only put up 20?

Well it was honestly a combination of things.

1. Maryland honestly just didn’t play well. There’s no way around it. They should have blown Illinois out but they didn’t. Probably the same way a top 5 team could be down at halftime to a bad CSU team at home.

2. It was a Friday night away game for us. Those games are always a little unpredictable.

3. We had some untimely turnovers and bad redzone offense which led to Illinois getting momentum behind their home crowd. Taulia still threw for 350 yards but they just couldn’t seem to get it together. After halftime Maryland marched down the field with ease and scored a TD. They then forced a three and out and marched down the field again easily but a fluke fumble inside the 20 kept them from scoring. Then the next possession they stripped the ball from our 3rd string RB. At that point I was just hoping they escaped with a win. Luckily they pulled it out.

 

[j0nnyhb_Prime]

Thanks OP for the info.

Pretty much all of us over here are under the impression that M is a bit undisciplined. Can you comment on that? Penalties, TOs, etc. If that is the case, that does play into the hands of Iowa (where they force teams to march down the field because they don't give up big plays). Thanks!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Hey so I’m a MD fan just coming to give you some insight about our team. Feel free to ask any questions and I’ll try to answer in a non homerish way. This info is just what I have seen so far. I’m not saying Maryland can or will do all of this vs Iowa. So when I say how good our QB or receivers are, I’m not saying we’re gonna put up 50 on you. I’m just commenting on how MD has looked as a team this year.

QB: Maryland finally has a good QB!! It’s been a decade since Maryland had an even serviceable quarterback and Taulia (Lia as we call him) is way better than serviceable. He makes NFL caliber throws look easy. His strengths are his vision, pocket awareness and accuracy. His main weakness is he has a tendency to check down and play it safe.

RB: Tayon Fleet-Davis is our number one back. Maryland has had an NFL caliber HB the last 4 years. TFD is not that guy. He has fairly good stats, but it feels like they are mostly elevated by MDs passing game. He’s a decent threat in the passing game and is good at getting the yards that our Oline opens up, but you won’t see him hitting many home runs. All in all, he won’t hurt us, but also won’t win us games.

WR: MD’s best position group. #7 Dontay Demus and #5 (former 5*) Rakim Jarrett are the best WR duo in the Big 10 (possibly country) outside of Columbus. Demus is 6’4” with 4.4 speed and looks to be a round 2-4 pick. Jarrett is a COVID Freshman and probably the 3rd fastest player on the team. Demus may be our best WR now, but Jarrett looks like a first round pick. Many have him just below Diggs as our most talented WR ever. On top of that, Jeshaun Jones is a fringe NFL player and Darryl Jones/Brian Cobbs would start for many Big 10 teams. You do not wanna play man to man against us. Keep the ball away from #5 and #7 and let other beat you. The only weakness of the group is we have a lot of random wide open drops……yeah idk go figure.

TE: This position is a bit of an enigma. We have Chig (#9) who has drawn some NFL interest but him and Lia don’t seem to be on the same page. Chig has two TDs and you can see the talent, but he missed all of last year with a COVID related heart condition. So him and Lia don’t seem to be completely in sync. Our other TE Corey Dyches (#84) seems to be a star in the making. He’s a converted COVID FR WR. Unlike Chig, him and Lia seem to be completely on point together. He’ll be a beast some day, but probably not for another year.

OL: Maryland has two very good tackles in Duncan and Anderson which accounts for why our pass pro has been very good so far. Our interior line has been average at best which is why our running game hasn’t been great. Our interior line is talented but raw and will get better with experience, unfortunately, Iowa might just be that experience they need but don’t have yet.

Offensive Playcalling: Maryland like to run an uptempo no huddle (but not hurry up) offense. Early on we’ll throw out a lot of weird sets with odd screens and misdirection plays. This I’m assuming is an attempt to make defenses be prepared for anything. As the game goes on they settle into a more traditional RPO style offense. Maryland’s game plan on offense seems to almost be West Cost style at first. We will dink and dunk throwing a lot of short passes and screens to draw the safeties in and then run deep out and crossing patterns (mostly running from right to left) to free up our WRs for big plays(See #5 TD vs WVU and #7 TD vs Kent). Almost all of our runs are zone read plays.
Lia is very mobile, but is instinctually a pocket passer. We may run 2-3 designed runs a game for tops. Almost all of his rushing yards are on scrambles when the pocket collapses.

Anyways, that’s all I have for you on offense. Feel free to ask questions or tell me off. If you guys want I’ll do a defense and ST.

Thanks! I have a healthy amount of trepidation about the game.

Iowa's defense plays a brand of bend-but-not-break defense that often causes opposing Os to press things.

However, on the flip side ... against good QBs (like Maryland possesses) ... sometimes the QB can get a little too comfortable and have too much success. It will be interesting to see if Taulia will be patient and take what the defense gives him ... furthermore, I'll be curious if the Iowa pass rush will be able to get home, WHILE CONTAINING Taulia. Seems like an interesting match-up for sure!

 

[jerbob36]

Thanks for taking the time!
I know we'll give up 300+ passing yards with our bend/no break philosophy. Just hoping that only amounts to 14-17 points. Should be a fun one.

 

[aapeltzz]

All the makings of a game where Iowa gets outgained 500-265 and the Hawks win 26-21.

 

[Jbwest31]

Thanks OP for the info.

Pretty much all of us over here are under the impression that M is a bit undisciplined. Can you comment on that? Penalties, TOs, etc. If that is the case, that does play into the hands of Iowa (where they force teams to march down the field because they don't give up big plays). Thanks!

That’s a frequent discussion on Maryland’s board as well. The undisciplined part comes from Maryland sometimes being over aggressive or over hyped up. For example they had personal fouls on numerous interceptions where our defense got too excited and just started hitting everything in sight. The defense also plays a very aggressive style especially with our DBs. So if the refs are more strict like against Kent State and Illinois they tend to commit some DPIs. As far as TOs they are definitely not undisciplined. Lia’s only int came on a dropped pass that went straight to a defender. They need a little better ball security but I wouldn’t call it a problem.

 

[Jbwest31]

Thanks! I have a healthy amount of trepidation about the game.

Iowa's defense plays a brand of bend-but-not-break defense that often causes opposing Os to press things.

However, on the flip side ... against good QBs (like Maryland possesses) ... sometimes the QB can get a little too comfortable and have too much success. It will be interesting to see if Taulia will be patient and take what the defense gives him ... furthermore, I'll be curious if the Iowa pass rush will be able to get home, WHILE CONTAINING Taulia. Seems like an interesting match-up for sure!

Yeah I definitely wouldn’t recommend letting Lia get into a rhythm. Illinois has success dropping 8 into zone coverage and that seemed to frustrate him, but that was the first time Maryland had seen that and I’m sure they have a game plan if they see that again.

 

[Jbwest31]

Thanks for taking the time!
I know we'll give up 300+ passing yards with our bend/no break philosophy. Just hoping that only amounts to 14-17 points. Should be a fun one.

That’s what I’m scared of. Maryland constantly marching down the field but having to settle for field goals. They have definitely struggled some in the red zone.

 

[unoHawkeye]

That’s a frequent discussion on Maryland’s board as well. The undisciplined part comes from Maryland sometimes being over aggressive or over hyped up. For example they had personal fouls on numerous interceptions where our defense got too excited and just started hitting everything in sight. The defense also plays a very aggressive style especially with our DBs. So if the refs are more strict like against Kent State and Illinois they tend to commit some DPIs. As far as TOs they are definitely not undisciplined. Lia’s only int came on a dropped pass that went straight to a defender. They need a little better ball security but I wouldn’t call it a problem.

Some good news for you here is that Iowa has drawn one defensive pass interference and two defensive holdings the entire season, predominantly due to our high amount of timing routes, underneath passes, and risk averse nature

 

[DodgerHawki]

Thanks for taking the time!
I know we'll give up 300+ passing yards with our bend/no break philosophy. Just hoping that only amounts to 14-17 points. Should be a fun one.

Iowa's defense as of late has pretty much been no bend, no break. The last time Iowa gave up 300+ passing yards was in the 2019 Holiday Bowl, a game Iowa won 49-24. That USC team was much more proficient passing the ball than Maryland.

I do think Maryland could give Iowa's defense more fits than any other team Iowa has played to date. Purdy just plain wilts against Iowa's defense, and Maryland's skill players overall are better than Iowa State's. Iowa may have to score more than 24 points to win this one.

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

Thanks for the post, I enjoyed reading it. Sounds like it will be strength vs strength so to speak as the best part of Maryland’s game is the passing offense and Iowa’s strength is our back 7 on defense.

 

[j0nnyhb_Prime]

My quick take on the game at this point is this:

1) Iowa will give up a couple big plays which will lead to M TDs. I just hope we limit it to 1, 2 or 3 and not more than that ...

2) Iowa will force a couple of TOs, which will likely lead to Iowa scoring.

3) Maryland has the a team similar to ISU but with more speed on the outside. This will pose a big challenge. If M stays away from the penalties and miscues Iowa is in for a really tight tough game and very well could lose it.

4) Iowa will try to pressure with front 4 and continue to rotate a lot of guys (which they have done all year so far - Iowa is deep on the DL but young). If they can get pressure with 4 and contain Lia from scrambling for 1st downs, etc. M could be in for a tough night. The back 7 is really good and experienced (hence my prediction for a couple TOs eventually falling Iowa's way).

5) Special Teams (forgot to ask about those!) - Iowa is probably top 3 in the nation here (not exaggerating here). The punter is really good (though had an off game last week and can be a little slow to kick it), the kick returner #16 Charlie "joyner" Jones is as good as we have had since Tim Dwight in the mid 90s. This could play a big roll in the field position game (which is what Iowa plays ... no dumb mistakes on O, punt and let the D take over, eventually waiting for the opposition to make a mistake).

I think this will be one of the best teams Iowa plays this year. If M is sound and doesn't make mistakes, Iowa could be in trouble. If they do, then Iowa can win it with their normal game plan. I think it comes down to the wire as M plays well in this game and so does Iowa (we should see a little better running and the QB hopefully will have a nice efficient game). I think M will get 2 TDs and 2 FGs (remember, M won't get as many possessions as they normally get, Iowa eats clock). I think Iowa will get 2 scores off TOs (10 points). I think the Iowa O will score 2 FGs and 2 TDs (20 points). Final score 30-20 Iowa.

 

[jonesy5960]

Iowa's defense as of late has pretty much been no bend, no break. The last time Iowa gave up 300+ passing yards was in the 2019 Holiday Bowl, a game Iowa won 49-24. That USC team was much more proficient passing the ball than Maryland.

I do think Maryland could give Iowa's defense more fits than any other team Iowa has played to date. Purdy just plain wilts against Iowa's defense, and Maryland's skill players overall are better than Iowa State's. Iowa may have to score more than 24 points to win this one.

Possible but highly unlikely given a 26 game streak of Iowa not allowing 25 points to any team.

 

[83Hawk]

Possible but highly unlikely given a 26 game streak of Iowa not allowing 25 points to any team.

Are you saying it is highly unlikely Iowa will ever give up 25 or more points in a game ever again?

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

Interesting read. Frankly--and I hope I'm wrong--I think we lose this one like 21-10 or something like that.
This kid is exactly the kind of QB that gives us fits, and the "speed on the outside" is a recipe for bad things. He can keep plays alive as we all know, and any breakdown on our back-end will be exposed, as has happened a few times; we've seen Moss struggle to cover great speed.
Unless we get a fast-forward-backward to late-2020 Spencer, and our o-line makes 2 months of gains in 4 days in the 'learning to block' category, we will have larger problems moving the ball than we've already seen.
I think we need 3 takeaways in this one, and points off all of them.

 

[jonesy5960]

Are you saying it is highly unlikely Iowa will ever give up 25 or more points in a game?

Of course not. That's not how statistical probability works.. It will most certainly end at some point as all streaks do given enough time and games. I'm saying that given a 26 game streak, the odds of that occurring in any given game are low. The odds go up of course given the strength of a given opponent, however I don't know that Maryland's offense is all that superior to other teams that Iowa has faced during this streak that has encompassed over 2 years and 26 games.

 

[BUCKSNDUCKS]

I’m not sure only rushing 4 d linemen will be enough to stop Lia from passing or running. Will have to send some blitzes and rattle him into mistakes

 

[83Hawk]

Of course not. That's not how statistical probability works.. It will most certainly end at some point as all streaks do given enough time and games. I'm saying that given a 26 game streak, the odds of that occurring in any given game are low. The odds go up of course given the strength of a given opponent, however I don't know that Maryland's offense is all that superior to other teams that Iowa has faced during this streak that has encompassed over 2 years and 26 games.

Actually, a 26 game streak has no effect on the odds. That is like saying the odds of getting tails on a coin flip are low because it has been heads 26 times in a row.

The odds of Iowa holding Maryland to less than 24 points are due to many factors…..a 26 game streak is not one of them.

 

[Jbwest31]

My quick take on the game at this point is this:

1) Iowa will give up a couple big plays which will lead to M TDs. I just hope we limit it to 1, 2 or 3 and not more than that ...

2) Iowa will force a couple of TOs, which will likely lead to Iowa scoring.

3) Maryland has the a team similar to ISU but with more speed on the outside. This will pose a big challenge. If M stays away from the penalties and miscues Iowa is in for a really tight tough game and very well could lose it.

4) Iowa will try to pressure with front 4 and continue to rotate a lot of guys (which they have done all year so far - Iowa is deep on the DL but young). If they can get pressure with 4 and contain Lia from scrambling for 1st downs, etc. M could be in for a tough night. The back 7 is really good and experienced (hence my prediction for a couple TOs eventually falling Iowa's way).

5) Special Teams (forgot to ask about those!) - Iowa is probably top 3 in the nation here (not exaggerating here). The punter is really good (though had an off game last week and can be a little slow to kick it), the kick returner #16 Charlie "joyner" Jones is as good as we have had since Tim Dwight in the mid 90s. This could play a big roll in the field position game (which is what Iowa plays ... no dumb mistakes on O, punt and let the D take over, eventually waiting for the opposition to make a mistake).

I think this will be one of the best teams Iowa plays this year. If M is sound and doesn't make mistakes, Iowa could be in trouble. If they do, then Iowa can win it with their normal game plan. I think it comes down to the wire as M plays well in this game and so does Iowa (we should see a little better running and the QB hopefully will have a nice efficient game). I think M will get 2 TDs and 2 FGs (remember, M won't get as many possessions as they normally get, Iowa eats clock). I think Iowa will get 2 scores off TOs (10 points). I think the Iowa O will score 2 FGs and 2 TDs (20 points). Final score 27-20 Iowa.

Maryland will definitely get their chunk plays. They’re averaging 520 ypg with 350 being through the air. The key will obviously be limiting them and possibly more important, keeping those big plays from being TDs. A 30 yard pass doesn’t mean as much when 3 plays later you have to settle for a fg.

If Iowa can get consistent pressure only rushing 4 then Maryland is in huge trouble. I don’t think they will because Maryland has had very good pass protection so far. Then again, they haven’t played a line like Iowa’s yet.

I think it will be hard to force Taulia into throwing ints. According to PFF, Lia hasn’t had a turnover worthy throw yet through 4 games (his one int was on a dropped pass). He’s very risk averse and is fine with checking down. As before though. Iowa’s secondary will be the most talented he’s faced. That should be a fun matchup to watch. Your safeties will need to stay home and not creep up. Maryland likes to throw a bunch of short underneath routes to lull the safeties in and then blow the top off when they’re out of position. Unfortunately I feel like your guys will handle that well.

 

[desihawk]

Interesting read. Frankly--and I hope I'm wrong--I think we lose this one like 21-10 or something like that.
This kid is exactly the kind of QB that gives us fits, and the "speed on the outside" is a recipe for bad things. He can keep plays alive as we all know, and any breakdown on our back-end will be exposed, as has happened a few times; we've seen Moss struggle to cover great speed.
Unless we get a fast-forward-backward to late-2020 Spencer, and our o-line makes 2 months of gains in 4 days in the 'learning to block' category, we will have larger problems moving the ball than we've already seen.
I think we need 3 takeaways in this one, and points off all of them.

i agree with many of your points. md offense will very likely have success against us and our dbs (moss?) will need to forget plays that burn them and return to fight on the next play. late night east coast game that is off schedule (i.e. Friday) all point to some lapses by the iowa D/ST. Let's see whether the third Iowa unit picks up some of the slack.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Interesting comments.
Lots of detail on the strength v strength ( Iowa D vs Maryland O). Makes me wonder what the other side of the matchup will look like. Will Iowa O be able to avoid too many quick 3 and outs.

 

[WinOneThisCentury II]

Interesting read. Frankly--and I hope I'm wrong--I think we lose this one like 21-10 or something like that.
This kid is exactly the kind of QB that gives us fits, and the "speed on the outside" is a recipe for bad things. He can keep plays alive as we all know, and any breakdown on our back-end will be exposed, as has happened a few times; we've seen Moss struggle to cover great speed.
Unless we get a fast-forward-backward to late-2020 Spencer, and our o-line makes 2 months of gains in 4 days in the 'learning to block' category, we will have larger problems moving the ball than we've already seen.
I think we need 3 takeaways in this one, and points off all of them.

Yeah...I believe you use the same scheme as the Iowa State game...keep Purdy in the pocket...and make him beat you with his arm down the field. Now, Lia (as Maryland fans call him) has a much better arm than Purdy. Still the way to beat them though. Expect Phil to dial up pressure in my opinion. Young QB, plays great when he's settled...not so much when he sees something he's not expecting.

If we can disrupt them early and not let Lia get settled...we should be able to get a few turnovers.

 

[FranklinHawk]

Actually, a 26 game streak has no effect on the odds. That is like saying the odds of getting tails on a coin flip are low because it has been heads 26 times in a row.

The odds of Iowa holding Maryland to less than 24 points are due to many factors…..a 26 game streak is not one of them.

Right, because comparing something that is 100% chance to something that reflects the actual talent of the team holding opponents under 25 points is exactly the same.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

All the makings of a game where Iowa gets outgained 500-265 and the Hawks win 26-21.

We will them drop 6 spots in ESPiNs FPI rankings and Maryland will rocket up past us.

 

[wcbtee]

Actually, a 26 game streak has no effect on the odds. That is like saying the odds of getting tails on a coin flip are low because it has been heads 26 times in a row.

The odds of Iowa holding Maryland to less than 24 points are due to many factors…..a 26 game streak is not one of them.

Sure, sure, except a coin flip is random and good defense is not.

 

[Jbwest31]

We will them drop 6 spots in ESPiNs FPI rankings and Maryland will rocket up past us.

It’s okay. FPI hates us too. Maryland is currently 43rd in FPI behind Rutgers and Nebby somehow.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

Maryland will definitely get their chunk plays. They’re averaging 520 ypg with 350 being through the air. The key will obviously be limiting them and possibly more important, keeping those big plays from being TDs. A 30 yard pass doesn’t mean as much when 3 plays later you have to settle for a fg.

If Iowa can get consistent pressure only rushing 4 then Maryland is in huge trouble. I don’t think they will because Maryland has had very good pass protection so far. Then again, they haven’t played a line like Iowa’s yet.

I think it will be hard to force Taulia into throwing ints. According to PFF, Lia hasn’t had a turnover worthy throw yet through 4 games (his one int was on a dropped pass). He’s very risk averse and is fine with checking down. As before though. Iowa’s secondary will be the most talented he’s faced. That should be a fun matchup to watch. Your safeties will need to stay home and not creep up. Maryland likes to throw a bunch of short underneath routes to lull the safeties in and then blow the top off when they’re out of position. Unfortunately I feel like your guys will handle that well.

That type of approach is not generally successful against Iowa as they play very disciplined defense.

 

[fezzador]

UMD does look to have some legit firepower on offense. I'm not sure how their OL holds up, but TT I think has a gear that Purdy and Penix don't have. Plus their receivers are a step above anything Iowa has faced this season. I have no doubt that they are going to try and go to the air early and often. Iowa may be able to contain them but they could easily get burned once or twice. I fully expect UMD to throw well north of 200 yards, maybe close to 300. That being said, Iowa's defense is more than capable of forcing turnovers so this one seems to be a case of strength on strength.

The theme should be, how effective will Iowa's run game be? Obviously Iowa's plan is to try and hang on to the ball as much as possible and keep the defense rested. If they can get something going on the ground and can put together a couple of long scoring drives, that may go a long ways into boosting their confidence. The more Iowa's offense stays on the field, the better. A defense that's been on the field for 30+ minutes in the 4th quarter is going to be naturally more tired, and more susceptible to giving up the big play. This is especially crucial if it goes down to the wire, which it seems likely to be.

 

[83Hawk]

Right, because comparing something that is 100% chance to something that reflects the actual talent of the team holding opponents under 25 points is exactly the same.

Apparently you did not read my entire post. I said this:

“The odds of Iowa holding Maryland to less than 24 points are due to many factors…..a 26 game streak is not one of them.”

The coin flip was an analogy based on jonesy’s contention that the odds of Maryland scoring 25 or more points was low *because* Iowa has held the last 26 opponents to less than 25. That is simply false.

 

[83Hawk]

Sure, sure, except a coin flip is random and good defense is not.

You need to read my post directly above this one. Hopefully that will help you.

 

[jonesy5960]

Actually, a 26 game streak has no effect on the odds. That is like saying the odds of getting tails on a coin flip are low because it has been heads 26 times in a row.

The odds of Iowa holding Maryland to less than 24 points are due to many factors…..a 26 game streak is not one of them.

Yes it does. Recent history is the single best predictor of the near future. College football is not the same as a coin flip which will always be 50/50.

 

[jonesy5960]

Apparently you did not read my entire post. I said this:

“The odds of Iowa holding Maryland to less than 24 points are due to many factors…..a 26 game streak is not one of them.”

The coin flip was an analogy based on jonesy’s contention that the odds of Maryland scoring 25 or more points was low *because* Iowa has held the last 26 opponents to less than 25. That is simply false.

Your analogy is dumb.