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Meanwhile at the RNC

Just watching Turd seethe against Haley's campaign is hilarious.

And she's poking the bear pretty well.

Fully expecting him to drop dead before the RNC convention this summer.
endgame-avengers.gif
 
I’m not so sure that Trump will lose. Let’s hope.
Trump loses in as general is my firm take.

Watch for this...

The poles that show basically dead even Trump v Biden in a general are gonna start to shift. I'm pretty confident the "undecided" in those polls are basically unhappy with both Joe and Don...they're holding out hope for another choice.

As long as Haley stays in that dynamic stays in place to a degree, once it's a done deal and there's basically no hope for an alternative choice. 80-90% of those folks hold their noses and vote for the lesser evil, Joe.

I'd expect a 6-8 pt edge for Biden nationally in polling. May not totally translate to the general as MAGA is pretty committed and will turn out. It still will be way more than enough but there might be some anxious moments asnd close races election night.

That's with the caveat Joe maintains his health and Trump isn't convicted and in jail. (World situation going totally down the shitter is another factor)

Seems the economy will maintain at a level that it won't be a anchor around Joes neck. Economy polls probably shift upwards for Joe as well. Not astronomically but enough to take it off the table as a major negative.



Bottom line is presidential elections are decided by percentage pts.....a "landslide" can be won with a 3% edge. The percentage pts on the periphery are gonna go Biden barring something I mentioned.
 
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Trump loses in as general is my firm take.

Watch for this...

The poles that show basically dead even Trump v Biden in a general are gonna start to shift. I'm pretty confident the "undecided" in those polls are basically unhappy with both Joe and Don...they're holding out hope for another choice.

As long as Haley stays in that dynamic stays in place to a degree, once it's a done deal and there's basically no hope for an alternative choice. 80-90% of those folks hold their noses and vote for the lesser evil, Joe.

I'd expect a 6-8 pt edge for Biden nationally in polling. May not totally translate to the general as MAGA is pretty committed and will turn out. It still will be way more than enough but there might be some anxious moments asnd close races election night.

That's with the caveat Joe maintains his health and Trump isn't convicted and in jail. (World situation going totally down the shitter is another factor)

Seems the economy will maintain at a level that it won't be anchor around Joes neck. Economy polls probably shift upwards for Joe as well. Not astronomically but enough to take it off the table as a major negative.

Those factors obviously skew things.

Bottom line is presidential elections are decided by percentage pts.....a "landslide" is can be won with a 3% edge. The percentage pts on the periphery are gonna go Biden barring something I mentioned.

You might be right and I wish that I shared your perspective. Mine is a bit more pessimistic. I think enough of the country will associate gas prices, the cost of goods, and any other problem they can think of in their daily lives with Biden. "We never had these problems with Trump!". The MAGA crowd will be crowing about all of this nonstop and follow the usual pattern of convincing each other and enough independents that the country is in complete shambles while a democrat is president and that our salvation comes through the next republican.

The reality is we are in pretty good shape which is saying a lot considering what we are recovering from. Inflation has eased, gas prices seem to be coming down, the normal indicators of economic strength are positive (unemployment, job creation, gdp, stock market etc..) but that's not the picture being painted by the opposite side and enough people will believe it.
 
You might be right and I wish that I shared your perspective. Mine is a bit more pessimistic. I think enough of the country will associate gas prices, the cost of goods, and any other problem they can think of in their daily lives with Biden. "We never had these problems with Trump!". The MAGA crowd will be crowing about all of this nonstop and follow the usual pattern of convincing each other and enough independents that the country is in complete shambles while a democrat is president and that our salvation comes through the next republican.

The reality is we are in pretty good shape which is saying a lot considering what we are recovering from. Inflation has eased, gas prices seem to be coming down, the normal indicators of economic strength are positive (unemployment, job creation, gdp, stock market etc..) but that's not the picture being painted by the opposite side and enough people will believe it.

Gas prices?

I filled up my car yesterday with $1.90 per gallon E-85.

The economy is booming. GOP and Dem Senate are trying to reach a deal on border. Trump has nothing to run on other than that he is a victim.
 
You might be right and I wish that I shared your perspective. Mine is a bit more pessimistic. I think enough of the country will associate gas prices, the cost of goods, and any other problem they can think of in their daily lives with Biden. "We never had these problems with Trump!". The MAGA crowd will be crowing about all of this nonstop and follow the usual pattern of convincing each other and enough independents that the country is in complete shambles while a democrat is president and that our salvation comes through the next republican.

The reality is we are in pretty good shape which is saying a lot considering what we are recovering from. Inflation has eased, gas prices seem to be coming down, the normal indicators of economic strength are positive (unemployment, job creation, gdp, stock market etc..) but that's not the picture being painted by the opposite side and enough people will believe it.
I disagree a bit.

The trouble with asking folks about the economy is it really isn't based off economic numbers like employment rate or GDP.

If folks can't afford rent or take out a home loan because of high interest rates it effects their perspective. Those things admittedly are out of Joes control but they effect perspective.

Add to that the high inflation rates of 21-22 left a mark that will take time to recede. I think we'll see that in economic polling over the coming months.
 
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I disagree a bit.

The trouble with asking folks about the economy is it really isn't based off economic numbers like employment rate or GDP.

If folks can't afford rent or take out a home loan because of high interest rates it effects their perspective. Those things admittedly are out of Joes control but they effect perspective.

Add to that the high inflation rates of 21-22 left a mark that will take time to recede. I think we'll see that in economic polling over the coming months.

Stop letting large corporations to buy the houses and rental units. Problem solved. If they have a monopoly there is no incentive to reduce housing costs.

What a weird concept. Where is Teddy Roosevelt when we need him.
 
Stop letting large corporations to buy the houses and rental units. Problem solved. If they have a monopoly there is no incentive to reduce housing costs.

What a weird concept. Where is Teddy Roosevelt when we need him.
My daughter bought a house in a development in Crestview...the houses on either side were bought by corporations renting them out. Have about 4 or 5 in the neighborhood I live in. It's a legit problem.
 
I disagree a bit.

The trouble with asking folks about the economy is it really isn't based off economic numbers like employment rate or GDP.

If folks can't afford rent or take out a home loan because of high interest rates it effects their perspective. Those things admittedly are out of Joes control but they effect perspective.

Add to that the high inflation rates of 21-22 left a mark that will take time to recede. I think we'll see that in economic polling over the coming months.

Pretty much what I said. People associate gas prices, cost of goods etc.. with how the economy is doing vs the actual metrics that are used to measure the health of the economy. They also associate any current issues with the current president.

People on the right also like to blame inflation wholly on Biden when the events/factors that lead to inflation were in progress before Biden took office.
 
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Gas prices?

I filled up my car yesterday with $1.90 per gallon E-85.

The economy is booming. GOP and Dem Senate are trying to reach a deal on border. Trump has nothing to run on other than that he is a victim.
$2.52/gallon at Casey’s in Urbandale and DSM yesterday for 10% ethanol. Highest price I saw was $2,59....
Kirkland golf balls, $27.99/ 2 dozen...(same price as last year).
 
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