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More Bidenomics

Thanks CCP!!!

HONG KONG, Sept 1 (Reuters) - China's economic growth is slowing down as policymakers try to fix a property market downturn, with troubles at major developer Country Garden in focus. Concerns are mounting over whether the world's second-largest economy is coming closer to a crunch point:

WHAT IS CAUSING CHINA’S ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN?

Unlike consumers in the West, Chinese people were left largely to fend for themselves during the COVID-19 pandemic and the revenge spending spree that some economists expected after China re-opened never took place.

 
White House Correspondents Dinner Whca GIF by C-SPAN
 

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My new colleague Gerard DiPippo, Bloomberg Economics’ senior geoeconomics analyst, pointed out — in a note on Friday that Terminal clients can read here — that so far this year US gross domestic product is growing faster than China’s in nominal terms.

That 6.5% nominal growth in US GDP in 2023 is distorted by the high inflation the world’s largest economy has seen over the past two years, DiPippo points out. China’s 4.8% nominal growth is similarly affected by its deflation.



Nominal means they hadn't adjusted for inflation (or deflation).
Y-o-Y inflation in the U.S. was 3.7% in September. If you adjust US nominal growth of 6.5% by the official inflation rate of 3.7%, growth is less than China's, before adjusting for their higher purchasing power under deflation.

CCP growth figures do keep getting revised down. Their debt growth is not a good look.
 
A progressive think tank recently met with President Biden's top aides at the White House and delivered a stark warning: The economic policies often referred to as "Bidenomics" were not resonating with most Americans.

According to Politico, members of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) visited the West Wing in September and October to brief White House officials about Bidenomics' branding failure. They presented numerous polling data that showed Americans aren't convinced about economic policy accomplishments under the president.

"Democrats can't just hammer people over the head with an insistence that the economy is great," Adam Green, co-founder of the PCCC, told Politico.

Green said, "We have to acknowledge pain and pivot, and there are ways that we can optimize that pivot to hit Trump for mismanaging the economy."

Politico said PCCC supplied White House officials with several surveys that showed Americans weren't buying into the Bidenomics story:

Just 35 percent of Americans trusted Democrats more on economic issues, according to weeks of private polling presented to the White House in mid-September and recently obtained by POLITICO. The data reinforced broad concerns over the public's dismal outlook. Despite expressing widespread support for Biden's policy agenda, few voters were aware he'd made much progress on any of a dozen-plus top priorities, like drug pricing or infrastructure.
Perhaps most alarming, 7 out of 10 people surveyed believed the economy wasn't getting better — even after they were explicitly told that inflation had eased and unemployment sat near record lows. That preface, designed specifically to persuade voters to brighten their view of the economy, did not seem to move them.
Green continued, "When we intentionally put our finger on the scale, and 100 percent of people hear good economic indicators before saying if the economy's going well for them, we still get walloped."

Headline count data via Bloomberg shows the White House launched the "Bidenomics" media blitz in late June.


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Despite the media blitz, Biden's job approval polling data via Real Clear Politics went down.

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A progressive think tank recently met with President Biden's top aides at the White House and delivered a stark warning: The economic policies often referred to as "Bidenomics" were not resonating with most Americans.

According to Politico, members of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) visited the West Wing in September and October to brief White House officials about Bidenomics' branding failure. They presented numerous polling data that showed Americans aren't convinced about economic policy accomplishments under the president.

"Democrats can't just hammer people over the head with an insistence that the economy is great," Adam Green, co-founder of the PCCC, told Politico.

Green said, "We have to acknowledge pain and pivot, and there are ways that we can optimize that pivot to hit Trump for mismanaging the economy."

Politico said PCCC supplied White House officials with several surveys that showed Americans weren't buying into the Bidenomics story:


Green continued, "When we intentionally put our finger on the scale, and 100 percent of people hear good economic indicators before saying if the economy's going well for them, we still get walloped."

Headline count data via Bloomberg shows the White House launched the "Bidenomics" media blitz in late June.


tSQ2o44.png


Despite the media blitz, Biden's job approval polling data via Real Clear Politics went down.

Ch3ClHs.png
"There are ways we can try to blame this on trump" who would have thought this might be one of their strategies.. Mr "the buck stops with me" has never taken ownership of a single one of his failures and often tries to deflect to trump.
 
I do think it’s kind of bizarre that people are convinced the economy is bad when it’s gone about as well as you could possibly expect under Biden. It does go to what David Brooks and others have said, that the economy is no longer an approval driver. Democrats think the economy is bad when a Republican is in office and vice versa.
 
I do think it’s kind of bizarre that people are convinced the economy is bad when it’s gone about as well as you could possibly expect under Biden. It does go to what David Brooks and others have said, that the economy is no longer an approval driver. Democrats think the economy is bad when a Republican is in office and vice versa.
Do you really think people should accept declining real wages as 'well as you could possibly expect'?

Look what has happened to the slope of that credit card curve, on top of declining real wages and savings:

Perhaps the Biden administration fails to admit that two years of negative real wage growth crushed many low/mid-tier households.





 
Do you really think people should accept declining real wages as 'well as you could possibly expect'?

Look what has happened to the slope of that credit card curve, on top of declining real wages and savings:

Perhaps the Biden administration fails to admit that two years of negative real wage growth crushed many low/mid-tier households.





Is your data suggesting that real wage growth was occurring in the several decades prior to Brandon becoming President?
 
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I do think it’s kind of bizarre that people are convinced the economy is bad when it’s gone about as well as you could possibly expect under Biden. It does go to what David Brooks and others have said, that the economy is no longer an approval driver. Democrats think the economy is bad when a Republican is in office and vice versa.
All you gotta do is go shopping. That's where people perceive the economy. Nobody cares if the percentage of increase is less than it was a year ago. They care that a basket of groceries costs much more than it used to.
 
All you gotta do is go shopping. That's where people perceive the economy. Nobody cares if the percentage of increase is less than it was a year ago. They care that a basket of groceries costs much more than it used to.
If people aren’t buying stuff DooBi, how can the economic numbers read what they read? How can American businesses be looking for MORE and MORE employees to work in their workplace? How can things be as bad as you say they are? How can they be as bad as you want them to be?
 
If people aren’t buying stuff DooBi, how can the economic numbers read what they read? How can American businesses be looking for MORE and MORE employees to work in their workplace? How can things be as bad as you say they are? How can they be as bad as you want them to be?
I think you are responding to the wrong person. I didn't say anything about any of the things you wrote.
 
I think you are responding to the wrong person. I didn't say anything about any of the things you wrote.
I must have misread your post #20, where you said all folks care about is the cost of groceries……A concern perhaps, but certainly not the final determiner on the economy. Things are puttin’ along pretty good the past few years…..Lots of jobs available and at pretty good pay……,the middle class has been losing “purchasing power” ever since the 1970’s…..so dont feed me that bullshit. Life was never easy for any of us….unless you were born in to $$$.
 
I must have misread your post #20, where you said all folks care about is the cost of groceries……A concern perhaps, but certainly not the final determiner on the economy. Things are puttin’ along pretty good the past few years…..Lots of jobs available and at pretty good pay……,the middle class has been losing “purchasing power” ever since the 1970’s…..so dont feed me that bullshit. Life was never easy for any of us….unless you were born in to $$$.
Well, good luck with that. Don't be surprised when 80% of people can see that buying stuff is outrageous instead of looking through your rose colored glasses.
 
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You can be sure to see a rebound after China’s strict Covid lockdown policy. I thought this was common knowledge and to be expected. If not it likes the Chinese and Indian economies won’t take over America’s in twenty years. Checker mentality in a chess games. American instant gratification will do today.
 
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Have you ever thrown some pieces of your funnel cake into the pond behind the funnel cake place at Adventure Land? Torbee has.
 
Do you really think people should accept declining real wages as 'well as you could possibly expect'?

Look what has happened to the slope of that credit card curve, on top of declining real wages and savings:

Perhaps the Biden administration fails to admit that two years of negative real wage growth crushed many low/mid-tier households.






Yes, and actually there was major real wage growth in the lower classes. It's the middle class that got hit unfortunately.

Did you expect there to be no economic consequences of the spending during COVID?
 
Yes, and actually there was major real wage growth in the lower classes. It's the middle class that got hit unfortunately.

Did you expect there to be no economic consequences of the spending during COVID?
I expected and predicted the economic consequences of the federal governments policy response to COVID.
COVID is currently gone as an excuse for federal spending still sitting at 25% of GDP when the Feds have never taxed more than 20% of GDP in our history.

Tax collections last year were higher than all but two years in the last 100. Yet we’re still piling up trillions in new debt, that add billions to the annual federal wealth transfer from society at large to Federal debt holders.

Bring Federal spending back in line with tax collections and you end the regressive inflation tax on the poor and middle class who don’t enjoy the same asset price appreciation to offset costs that the rich do.
 
I expected and predicted the economic consequences of the federal governments policy response to COVID.
COVID is currently gone as an excuse for federal spending still sitting at 25% of GDP when the Feds have never taxed more than 20% of GDP in our history.

Tax collections last year were higher than all but two years in the last 100. Yet we’re still piling up trillions in new debt, that add billions to the annual federal wealth transfer from society at large to Federal debt holders.

Bring Federal spending back in line with tax collections and you end the regressive inflation tax on the poor and middle class who don’t enjoy the same asset price appreciation to offset costs that the rich do.

Real wage growth at the 10th percentile was exceptionally strong—even in the face of high inflation​

Between 2019 and 2022, hourly wage growth was strongest at the bottom of the wage distribution. The 10th-percentile real hourly wage grew 9.0% over the three-year period. When we look across the wage distribution, we see wage growth declining for each successive wage group until we reach the high-wage group.
 
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It is like the guy that buys a stock at $100. It goes down to $60. Then goes up to $75 and he thinks he is making money.
 
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Not only is inflation dropping in the U.S. - it is finally dropping globally.

This is only possible when the U.S. has good leadership.

 
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