More data painting Iowa on the upswing...

[cmhawks99]

In lieu of the information I looked at earlier I decided to look at the number of times Kirk lost "those games" that the fans deemed were unworthy...

And the first thing that struck me was how many 9+ win teams we've played over the last five years...

First off we have lost 32 of those "stinker" games under Kirk. They count several shocking losses to Iowa State & Minnesota, obviously the inexplicable loss to Western Michigan, a few sub .500 Indiana teams & some really average Northwestern teams. But a handful of them are .500 or just above .500 PSUs, Ohio State and Michigan's...

11 were in the first 3 years. And for the record, as is usually the case, I hedge the opposite of what the critic would expect. Meaning I don't want to be accused of cherry picking so I counted seven win teams that I'm certain mamy of our fans thought we should win. That's pretty arbitrary and kind of BS but I don't want to leave avenues for debate. Now there were a couple 7 win teams, I didn't add to the equation because they were Ohio State or Penn State, etc and even a couple seven win Iowa State teams that quite frankly were better than us at the time, or as good. 2002 and 2005, those were both understandable losses. But I believe I counted pretty much every seven win Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern and even the 7-5 ISU Loss in 2001, though i shouldnt have, because I just know how our fans are. They don't think they are "worthy" opponents. When we became Michigan fans I guess I don't know?!

So 5 from 2013 to this year...

11 in the first 3 years....

And 15 from 05-12...our difficult period, as you'll see a correlation to the other study I did.

But back to my original thought, we have lost 23 games the last 5 years. Admittedly that is to many, but 16 have come vs 9 win, mostly 10-11 win teams. We are so close, and we ARE trending up. The evidence pretty clearly shows, even if some don't care to admit it.

In case your wondering we have won 8...of those games vs 9 plus win teams.

I didn't count totals comparing KFs bad losses to Haydens but they would be comparable.

 

[TonyTheTiger.1865]

You are an imbecile

 

[cmhawks99]

You are an imbecile

Yet, you have nothing.....

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

If you are going to attempt to do a statistical analysis you have to include all data. Appreciate the effort.

 

[cmhawks99]

If you are going to attempt to do a statistical analysis you have to include all data. Appreciate the effort.

No clue what you're talking about nor do I care honestly. I'm sorry that I upset you and Tony but the reality is Hayden isn't any different than Kirk.

I used every single game where they lost to sub 500 teams and I added some to Kirks so you guys would feel better.

Honestly I'm sorry reality doesn't fit your agenda but that's just the way it is.

Please feel free to do your own statistical study. I know you won't because it won't support your agenda so really all you're left with is rhetoric & an attempt to discredit. And I'll be completely honest with you, it really wasn't a good effort on your part. Nor would anybody not carrying a stubborn belief that Hayden Fry was a superior entity or that the coach we currently have sucks.

Anything else...?!

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Yeah. You would be a horrible scientist. Go to bed. I'll run the numbers in the morning.

 

[cmhawks99]

Yeah. You would be a horrible scientist. Go to bed. I'll run the numbers in the morning.

Of course I wouldn't, I'm not a scientist.

Incidentally scientific study and quite frankly Homer has run this down nicely before...is still an inexact science. It's still one built on theory and hypotheses and picking data and you can easily skew your findings.

You have woefully missed the intent, that has already been shone. You and your buddy Muskie and listen muskie, I'm not picking on you...but you guys want to argue semantics and who proved what & all I have to do is show that everyone on here that somehow thinks Hayden Fry was an offensive jugernaut and poor dumb Kirk, is some country bumpkin...are all wet!

That's been done...Hayden had more games under 10 points, more games under 14 and had a similar amount of head scratching losses. It doesn't matter whether the data is exactly right or the way you want it. The intent has been shown.

And why you might ask? If it can be shown that people's memories of Hayden aren't close to what they remember. They either have to back off KF or they have to admit that they're both at worst the same person and fatally flawed. And I'm fine with that because every coache is especially as it pertains to "his" Fanbase!

See Muskie wants to show you how much football he knows and you don't. I just want to show you, your logic is flawed and your judgment hypocritical as it compares to the totality of the college football landscape and just cognitive thinking in general.

People are naturally shitty and it's easy to crawl on a message board & lambaste people...that's why my friend Tony called me an imbecile. He doesn't like what I'm saying, but the reality has been cast. Unless you can find that Hayden has lost 10 games to sub 500 team's and Kirk has lost 30+ or find my points scored data incongruent there's no amount of scientific data that can change what has already been done. Even if you find them off by one, 5, 10 the reality is those two men are at worst very similar.

I get tired of coming on this message board and people constantly complaining about the coach of my favorite football team. Like somehow they're brilliant and they're the only ones Who can see it and are therefore righteous. Hell you're all the same on every damn board in the nation. All the messageboard heroes come out and talk about how awful we were, honestly it's exhausting.

And in reality I am an imbecile… We are on a football message board arguing about how awful our coache is. At least I step away for long stretches at a time. I sure as hell don't get into a Saturday thread watching my favorite football team and throw 20 or 30 posts up about how much we suck...you talk about a waste of life! I do go read other boards and laugh at them.

Now if you think there's a successful rebuttal to that..please by all means..but there isn't!

 

[cmhawks99]

Yeah. You would be a horrible scientist. Go to bed. I'll run the numbers in the morning.

Before my friend Wasn't Drunk gets back with hsi scientific data. I went back and counted ONLY losses to ......500 or less teams. He is right in that if you don't "limit" your data to a finite point before the search, you are just picking and grabbing. I did that because many on here arbitrarily....pick and choose what they hold KF accountable for vs what they don't Hayden. And while you bristle at that remember there are bare minimum 50 plus guys in here that would echo that sentiment. So there are no 7-5 ISU or NW, or, or...in these numbers that clearly I know many of you never think we should lose to. But Hayden had those games too. People just hold him to a different standard, and by people, I mean the hyper-KF critic.

So...

KF has lost to 26 teams that finished .500 or less.
Hayden has lost to 20 and tied 2.......

Again, as many of us with good historical perspective already knew instinctively

http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Iowa.htm

 

[BirdistheWord]

haters gonna hate.

 

[dbrocket]

Bitch all you want, the OP is correct. The last 5 or so years, we've done a better job beating the beatables. We've had a really bad one last year, and a couple this year, but this year was a weird year all around.

I think we've had more games of conplete offensive futility since Greg Davis, though, I think.

 

[whoboppin]

12-2
8-5
7-5

Looks like you are trending down to me.

 

[cmhawks99]

12-2
8-5
7-5

Looks like you are trending down to me.

Hey thanks.....keep up the good work.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

Hey thanks.....keep up the good work.

CM, you are really good at this, and the data is compelling. I agree with most, if not all of your conclusions. However, you will not change any minds on the subject.

But, I appreciate all the stats!

 

[cmhawks99]

CM, you are really good at this, and the data is compelling. I agree with most, if not all of your conclusions. However, you will not change any minds on the subject.

But, I appreciate all the stats!

Thanks I appreciate the kind comments and yeah I get it. I was just giving a smarmy retort to who I think is a Nebraska fan. That's another thing I don't get. Fans talking trash to other fans about their teams. It just doesn't make much sense to me. I know some people think the "rivalry" and trash talk is what makes it fun but to me it's pretty stupid.

I remember last year a Penn State fan preseason or maybe the spring was talking about how Iowa just wasn't ever going to be able to compete with them anymore. Yet they were on their heels in that game and I am greatly looking forward to playing next year. Everyone seems to think their team is so much more "talented" than the other team and that's OK but to go to a rival message board and be stupid it's just silly in my mind. To great a chance of looking stupid and it backfiring.

 

[SWIowahawks]

So NDSU isn’t included in your numbers of losses that shouldn’t have happened? Faulty numbers.

 

[cidhawkeye]

How many games did each coach lose outright as double digit favorites? Those are bad losses.

 

[cmhawks99]

So NDSU isn’t included in your numbers of losses that shouldn’t have happened? Faulty numbers.

They were originally but Wasn't drunk took exception to it...So completely unintentionally he helped further my point and you come along and solidified it. It should have been counted and several more for Hayden, but he wanted more hard and fast parameters.

It's nice when a plan comes fully together at the "prodding" of a super-critic. As I said before, it's immaterial as the numbers, any numbers, show the reality of the two men. They are remarkably similar at worst.

The critics have told us for years...Hayden didn't lose to "poor" foes .....he did.

He was an offensive genius who didn't have as many games where the offense stagnated....true, he had more.

He scratched where it itches...apparently only when he knew where it itched.

The over-arching reality is...they were both great coaches who had tough games. Just like they all do. Many of us know this inherently, you however seem not too.

Thanks for your help in bringing this full circle.

 

[cmhawks99]

How many games did each coach lose outright as double digit favorites? Those are bad losses.

Probably a lot, but I know this, Oklahoma has lost 8 games in 7 straight years as a double digit favorite, 2 as 30 point favorites!!!

The hole just keeps getting deeper. Or more accurately said; the lights of reality keep getting brighter.

Anything else...?

 

[cidhawkeye]

Probably a lot, but I know this, Oklahoma has lost 8 games in 7 straight years as a double digit favorite, 2 as 30 point favorites!!!

The hole just keeps getting deeper. Or more accurately said; the lights of reality keep getting brighter.

Anything else...?

How does Oklahoma tie in to my question? Neither Ferentz or Fry coached there.

 

[cmhawks99]

How does Oklahoma tie in to my question? Neither Ferentz or Fry coached there.

You know why....!! But I'll make you a deal, you explain to me why it's acceptable for Oklahoma being a regular top 10 power to lose EIGHT in seven straight years and then I'll explain to you why it's acceptable for Iowa, deal?!

Should I wait around, do you think you'll come up with anything?

I'd be happy to wait...while you're at it you might want to check nationally. It seems to happen more and more all the time.

 

[cidhawkeye]

You know why....!! But I'll make you a deal, you explain to me why it's acceptable for Oklahoma being a regular top 10 power to lose EIGHT in seven straight years and then I'll explain to you why it's acceptable for Iowa, deal?!

Should I wait around, do you think you'll come up with anything?

I'd be happy to wait...while you're at it you might want to check nationally. It seems to happen more and more all the time.

I asked a simple question, you choosing to make it about Oklahoma is simply a deflection. If you don't want to answer just say so.

 

[Frank Cannon]

--------I didn't count totals comparing KFs bad losses to Haydens but they would be comparable.

Um, no.....KF has lost more times as a double digit favorite than pretty much the whole conference combined....Hlas had a jaw dropping stat on it years ago. Nice try though.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/hlas-double-digit-dogs-biting-hawkeyes-again-20161002

 

[cmhawks99]

I asked a simple question, you choosing to make it about Oklahoma is simply a deflection. If you don't want to answer just say so.

You don't have an answer and I'll say again.... You know why! It's pretty damn obvious. Now I suppose it's possible you can't connect the dots. But I've given you the benefit of the doubt and assumed you had solid cognitive thinking skills.

Right?!

Why would anyone compare a top 10 team who has lost that many games to double digit dogs to Iowa?

You really don't know?

 

[cmhawks99]

--------I didn't count totals comparing KFs bad losses to Haydens but they would be comparable.

Um, no.....KF has lost more times as a double digit favorite than pretty much the whole conference combined....Hlas had a jaw dropping stat on it years ago. Nice try though.

Yep I've seen it have you seen this..

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/a...state-oklahoma-final-score-results-recap-2017


It seems we all can link things....
Now what do we do?

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

In a thread where you took the time to do a bunch of Math on Iowa why are you bringing up Iowa State and Oklahoma? Yes this issue is not specific to Iowa. Look at the numbers over a longer span and let them speak for themselves.

 

[cmhawks99]

--------I didn't count totals comparing KFs bad losses to Haydens but they would be comparable.

Um, no.....KF has lost more times as a double digit favorite than pretty much the whole conference combined....Hlas had a jaw dropping stat on it years ago. Nice try though.

And Frank let's be honest it wasn't a nice try and it isn't a nice "try" by you. You have no clue even how to look up how many double digit losses Hayden Fry had. So you have zero frame of reference.

But I have shown you Hayden Fry scored under 10 vs Big 10 competition way more times than KF, he scored under 14 points way more times and is within five or six losses to sub 500 teams. I don't think there's anything left brother. But honestly as another poster said..you guys are going to believe what you want to believe but the Truth is still the Truth.

Hayden and KF were very similar and KF has hit more highs.

 

[cmhawks99]

In a thread where you took the time to do a bunch of Math on Iowa why are you bringing up Iowa State and Oklahoma? Yes this issue is not specific to Iowa. Look at the numbers over a longer span and let them speak for themselves.

Go ahead I'll wait....But eight losses to double digit dogs as a top 10 team seems like a pretty good frame of reference. Right?

Look I'm genuinely sorry these numbers didn't fall out the way you needed them too. But you completely switched gears to prove nothing.

I catalogued that Oklahoma thing months ago because I knew it would come up again in here. I even resisted the urge to get on and post it because I have my own rules about engaging buffoons during the season. But I have now posted it...I don't know 10 times in here...people don't like it. In fact you've all skipped over it, now is the time where it's right in peoples faces.

If a super program like Oklahoma can lose that many games in seven straight years! Again let that sink in 7… Straight… Years! And Iowa has lost 13 since 06, doesn't seem like that big a deal does it?

Quite frankly and this will send you in a tizzy, but maybe just maybe Iowa is getting too "much" national respect. Some of those games are pretty shocking we were favored by 10 or 12 or 14 points.

And what do they all mean anyway...we were a 12 point dog against Penn State we were 17 point Dog against Ohio State we were 12 point dog against Wisconsin...those three games had wildly different turn out it's nothing MoveOn.

I mean hell I assume when we come out as a double digit dog you still hope to win right?

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

I don't have an agenda and nothing you could quote of mine would say such. I'm sure Oklahoma isn't happy about that stat either.

 

[cmhawks99]

I don't have an agenda and nothing you could quote of mine would say such. I'm sure Oklahoma isn't happy about that stat either.

Still assuming I'm doing something I'm not. I have zero intention of quoting you and I'm not trying to argue football knowledge. Debate is what I do for a living and I know how to lay down a line that's tough to crossover. I don't need to "quote" anybody to do that. I was simply showing people's memories of Hayden are inflated, and their use of him to discredit KF is not only unfair it's just flat false. That Jack is out of the box. That has been successfully done. And no amount of revision can change that

KF like any coach has failings, but he's honestly taken us to a higher level than we were.

And you're right Oklahoma fans are undoubtably unhappy about that, just like Clemson fans are pissed they lost to a 4-8 Syracuse team, just like it irritates me to have that stat about Iowa bandied about.

Taken at face value it sucks, but looked at in the totality of college football. It is at least indicative of the fact that Iowa is often times very well thought of, too much so at times.

And this is where the rubber meets the highway, and this is what has made me successful, I get people, I get how they think.

What really irritates Iowa fans is they want to dance around and beat their chest and brag about how awesome they are. They don't want to come into the season as a second or third tier program and suddenly go 12-0. They want to come into the season riding high and hold it over people's heads. But here's the thing, that's what we all want to do, apparently at this point in time it's not our lot in life.

There are so many intangible things that have to happen to break over that hump and I guess that's why I have a lot more respect and empathy for people in the pit slugging away.

You guys like to get on message boards and complain we don't win enough and I guess there's a place in the world for you as well. But I don't have to like it and I have just as much right to call bullshit bullshit! And that's where were at right now!

So if you can figure out how many double digit dogs Hayden lost to please link the site. I personally have looked and can't find it. I do thirst for knowledge & I spend a lot of time looking up obscure things most of which don't really pertain to football. I like information and I like to understand things. From the Roman Empire, to Jesus Christ, to human history on all continents, all these things make me better at my job. This is just fact-finding, rooting out the Truth and dialogue for me.

With that said it's not going to change what has already been done. Hayden Fry wasn't superman and Kirk Ferentz isn't The penguin.... and yes the comic cross-reference was done on purpose.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Still assuming I'm doing something I'm not. I have zero intention of quoting you and I'm not trying to argue football knowledge. Debate is what I do for a living and I know how to lay down a line that's tough to crossover. I don't need to "quote" anybody to do that. I was simply showing people's memories of Hayden are inflated, and their use of him to discredit KF is not only unfair it's just flat false. That Jack is out of the box. That has been successfully done. And no amount of revision can change that

KF like any coach has failings, but he's honestly taken us to a higher level than we were.

And you're right Oklahoma fans are undoubtably unhappy about that, just like Clemson fans are pissed they lost to a 4-8 Syracuse team, just like it irritates me to have that stat about Iowa bandied about.

Taken at face value it sucks, but looked at in the totality of college football. It is at least indicative of the fact that Iowa is often times very well thought of, too much so at times.

And this is where the rubber meets the highway, and this is what has made me successful, I get people, I get how they think.

What really irritates Iowa fans is they want to dance around and beat their chest and brag about how awesome they are. They don't want to come into the season as a second or third tier program and suddenly go 12-0. They want to come into the season riding high and hold it over people's heads. But here's the thing, that's what we all want to do, apparently at this point in time it's not our lot in life.

There are so many intangible things that have to happen to break over that hump and I guess that's why I have a lot more respect and empathy for people in the pit slugging away.

You guys like to get on message boards and complain we don't win enough and I guess there's a place in the world for you as well. But I don't have to like it and I have just as much right to call bullshit bullshit! And that's where were at right now!

So if you can figure out how many double digit dogs Hayden lost to please link the site. I personally have looked and can't find it. I do thirst for knowledge & I spend a lot of time looking up obscure things most of which don't really pertain to football. I like information and I like to understand things. From the Roman Empire, to Jesus Christ, to human history on all continents, all these things make me better at my job. This is just fact-finding, rooting out the Truth and dialogue for me.

With that said it's not going to change what has already been done. Hayden Fry wasn't superman and Kirk Ferentz isn't The penguin.... and yes the comic cross-reference was done on purpose.

You are very committed to your cause, a great skill for a debater. You have however assigned a motive to me that doesn't apply. You have moved the discussion from the question I asked. It fits your premise and is your mo. If you had made your comment about not being able to find the information about Hayden and then moved to the Oklahoma stat I wouldn't have pressed the issue and I would have engaged the conversation. Since you chose Oklahoma and you are a master at digging up the truth maybe you can give us the stats at how other Big Ten teams have done as double digit favorites. That is the peer group that KF operates in and should provide a better comparison.

 

[cmhawks99]

You are very committed to your cause, a great skill for a debater. You have however assigned a motive to me that doesn't apply. You have moved the discussion from the question I asked. It fits your premise and is your mo. If you had made your comment about not being able to find the information about Hayden and then moved to the Oklahoma stat I wouldn't have pressed the issue and I would have engaged the conversation. Since you chose Oklahoma and you are a master at digging up the truth maybe you can give us the stats at how other Big Ten teams have done as double digit favorites. That is the peer group that KF operates in and should provide a better comparison.

Someone else linked it above friend.

 

[cmhawks99]

You are very committed to your cause, a great skill for a debater. You have however assigned a motive to me that doesn't apply. You have moved the discussion from the question I asked. It fits your premise and is your mo. If you had made your comment about not being able to find the information about Hayden and then moved to the Oklahoma stat I wouldn't have pressed the issue and I would have engaged the conversation. Since you chose Oklahoma and you are a master at digging up the truth maybe you can give us the stats at how other Big Ten teams have done as double digit favorites. That is the peer group that KF operates in and should provide a better comparison.

I missed the peer group comment. When dealing with a coach who for some odd reason is widely "panned" by a small percentage of his fans. It becomes widely apparent most of them have next to zero frame of context. In which case all information and comparison is not only useful but apropos.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Someone else linked it above friend.

It wasn't complete or up to date but it is a link. KF doesn't compare well to his peer group. I don't know Oklahomas record as a double digit favorite, they are on a tough stretch with that, what is it overall since Stoops arrived?

 

[cmhawks99]

It wasn't complete or up to date but it is a link. KF doesn't compare well to his peer group. I don't know Oklahomas record as a double digit favorite, they are on a tough stretch with that, what is it overall since Stoops arrived?

I don't know but see you're missing the point or in all honestly you're probably not. We all can pick things to make the point we want. Taken since 2006 it looks like Kirk has struggled some. But in the totality of his career not so much and then when buttressed with the fact that they've been double digit favorites way more than several teams, honestly it's very difficult to draw any real conclusions. So we say.."hey this guy keeps falling down", therefore I'm saying hey these guys over here are falling down to.

Because see you too have a "mo". Now admittedly I enjoy the way you write and you're clearly a thinker. I'll also confess you're a little more fair & middle of the road than several of these guys. But honestly getting on the message board of your favorite sports team and seeing people constantly bitch and moan about the coach.... I don't think you know the level of exhausting that it really is.

I will again say though...I appreciate your questions, you're not caustic, like I certainly can be and you have challenged me to go back and look at that link.

I missed something the first time. We have only had four since, 2011 so it goes back to what I've said over and over...in that 05, 06 to 2012 timeframe we had a lot of difficulty.

And we also have 20 more opportunities than NW, Minne and admittedly way less than others. But what "is" the difference between 8pts vs 11pts.... and what does the country look like since 2011. Based on the Oklahoma stat it appears it is happening with more regularity.

The point being most of these guys and you'd have to admit this. Not you but many of these guys, all they want to do is grab anything that will help them to hurt & maim I have no use for that!

AnyWho merry Christmas. The point I intended has been made and I've grown a little tired of this discussion, the board and it's entirety really.

Have a great holiday and go Hawks!