Here we go again

[eyesofhawk]

I doubt that anybody I know who is a regular sports gambler wins in the long run. Of course, about 30-40% of them claim that they do. And the funny thing is the stuff they say sounds exactly like this eyeshawk dipshit, using cool words like ‘juice’ and ‘sharps’ and ‘+EV’ to try to make themselves feel smarter than you.

Sports gambling is a fun hobby. It keeps you interested in games, adds some excitement and the big wins can be thrilling. If you play within your means, then it tends to be worth the money you put into it.

Tough to have a sports betting conversation without using its terminology

 

[eyesofhawk]

You strike me as a hobby gambler who wants people to think he's some kind of top 1% sharp. I think a lot of posters can see through to the conceit, and that's what rubs them the wrong way.

Maybe that's unfair. Maybe not. I'm not really interested enough to determine which.

A person who spends the amount of time (and energy in the form of strict discipline) it takes to actually be successful sports gaming, to make "modest" gains -- that's the very definition of a hobby gamer. You spend a lot of time and energy, trying to prove to yourself and others that you're a little more clever than the average punter. I would guess you've never made more than $10,000/year profit.

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever wrong with that. Everyone does something to distract themselves from the existential truth of inevitable death. Golf, fishing, running, gardening, painting ....the list of distractions is endless. Everyone picks up a few before they shuffle off this mortal coil.

Enjoy it. Just know that if you start pontificating like some kind of high rolling sharp, people are just naturally going to call you out on it. That's just human nature. A little humility goes a long way.

Me...I can learn the shortcuts and do the math but I have zero mental discipline. Winning or losing, after about 150 min at the table, I want to put a gun in my mouth. I would never make it gambling.

You reference how hard it is to be a profitable sports bettor, yet expect me to have made better than modest money at it.

For a quick example, if I bet $110/game at standard -110 pricing, and win 55% of my bets over time (which is pro level accuracy, btw), I will make $5.50/bet.

My unit level is now significantly higher than $110, but you can do the math. At those narrow margins, the only way you can make a lot of money grinding units is to have a very large unit size (put a lot of money into it).

One might suggest to bet $1100/game and make $55 dollars a game with 55% accuracy. The problem is there can be variance/downswings in the short term. Traditional strategy suggests to have a bankroll of 100 times your unit size to act as a cushion and limit your emotional attachment/reactions in the short term. I've managed to personalize my bankroll strategy to much less than 100 units. But I have no problem saying I've never had 110k specifically for sports betting.

So although my accuracy the past several years is comparable to the pros, my input level has never been large enough to make a living off the output. So yes, something more like a hobby to this point.

Given the decades devoted to the craft, yes, it can be frustrating to not have a more lucrative monetary showing. Which is why I've spent much of the last year and a half developing/refining shot taking strategies that can produce larger gains in the short term.

Also, I've been "lucky" over the years, and even in my losing years to have won a nice percentage of my multiple unit bets. So that's been nice.

They don't call it a grind for no reason

 

[nu2u]

Which is why I've spent much of the last year and a half developing/refining shot taking strategies that can produce larger gains in the short term

I’m confident that you will develop a unique betting model - strategies never before employed - that will produce gains, a novel approach that has never been considered or tested, delivering reliable profits to give you an edge where others have failed. You’re going to be famous.

 

[eyesofhawk]

I’m confident that you will develop a unique betting model - strategies never before employed - that will produce gains, a novel approach that has never been considered or tested, delivering reliable profits to give you an edge where others have failed. You’re going to be famous.

Yes and no.

The live (in-game) market is something that hasn't been "mastered" yet. Doing a lot of work there in conjunction with betsizing/unit manipulation in a shot-taking strategy.

I'm sure people have done similar things, or used some of the same elements.

But in it's entirety, I've never heard of anyone doing quite the same thing as what I'm currently trying to optimize.

There are rules and guidelines within the strategy, but I wouldn't call it a "model", as it's also dependent upon making skilled decisions in real time.

There will continue to be opportunities for innovation, as live markets continue to become more multiple. For example, I've barely dabbled in live player props, or possession props. It's only going to continue to expand. Betting on free throws, whether or not a coach will call timeout during a certain time period, stuff like that.

Free throw markets would probably interest me. But innovation does not. It's about finding things that can make money and optimizing them