Election 2024 - Primary & General Election Polls | Latest Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore up-to-date 2024 primary & general election polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
More Fake News polls coming out tomorrow
- Thread starter Funky Bunch
- Start date
Anything short of a Biden like meltdown by Harris in the debate, and this one could be over in three weeks.
The election is in 69 days btw.
So basically a dead heat. Harris needs to get up a larger lead for this to be over AND not let up on the petal.
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Petal to the meddle, err, peddle to the metal?
Also feeling a lot like 2016.
This is way too close, and I weep for my country because of it.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
For comparison
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
Forgive any spelling mistakes. I want to see the manager.Petal to the meddle, err, peddle to the metal?
It's Pedal!Petal to the meddle, err, peddle to the metal?
Pedal to the middlePetal to the meddle, err, peddle to the metal?
You know Trump is in trouble when Fox shows him trailing.
Walz made a nice “gutter cover” speech yesterday that ought to be some Dem votes in the mid-west “toss-up” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota…..and to all Menard’s shoppers in those states. He urged Democrats to stay off their ladders until after the Election!
I will believe it when the votes are counted…..Arizonans are a lot like Iowans…they luv them those crazy-assed republicans! And Lake is !
But Arizonans cant help themselves….many of them have strong Iowa roots/ties!
Don’t think so. Way too many folks voting Trump no matter what will give him a shot.
Voter turnout is a Dem strong point and female voters are likely pissed off about attacks on women’s reproductive rights.
Early voting starts soon.
We need a Stacey Abrams in NC. Turnout is critical.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.projects.fivethirtyeight.com
For comparison
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
This is still very much a coin flip election.
Have seen too many times that Trump has survived what would kill any other campaign. Won’t even begin to count my chickens here until all the eggs are accounted for.
Is that for Florida as a state, or just the one district? Help me out Floridians, if that’s for one district, is that her exceeding expectations or meeting them there? Assuming the polling is accurate of course.
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She is a raging moron. From Rock Island and North Scott High School. A grasping, desperate, emtpy-headed formerly pretty face with a twisted and poison soul.
The polls always overstate Democrat support, and right now the polls show Harris with a smaller lead than Hillary had. Less than half the lead Biden had.
Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, NC; all battleground states where the GOP controls the legislature and is working hard to suppress Democratic votes. It still looks to me like Trump is the most likely winner.
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Exclusive: Kamala Harris surges ahead of Donald Trump in latest poll taken after DNC
Harris has succeeded in doing what Biden never could this year: Lead Trump.
Susan PageSavannah KucharSudiksha KochiUSA TODAY
- Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Donald Trump, 48%-43%, in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.
- The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June.
The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June, when Trump had led President Joe Biden in the survey by nearly four points.
The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone Sunday through Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. With the election approaching, the survey is now measuring likely voters; previous polls were of registered voters.
Harris has succeeded in doing what Biden never could this year: Lead Trump.
The success of 'Brat Summer' and targeted appeals
The findings underscore the success of the targeted appeals at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week."With the 'Brat Summer' of Kamala Harris emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention."
Among the biggest shifts since June, all outside the poll's margin of error:
- Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
- Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by 2 points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
- Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.
Lower-income voters now support Harris 58%-35%. She has emphasized her commitment to creating an "opportunity economy" that makes housing more affordable and tackles price-gouging on food, although she hasn't released detailed policy plans.
'I'm very excited to vote for a woman'
Voters of all stripes say the election has been transformed. Harris is the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent to be nominated for president by a major party. At 59, she is a generation younger than Trump, the former president, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81."I think people are cautiously optimistic that they're going to have a lot better chance with Harris than they would have had with Biden going head-to-head with Trump," said Amy Hendrix, 46, of Fort Worth. An independent who usually votes Democratic, she was among those called in the poll. "I'm very excited to vote for a woman, and that's just the truth."
But Jason Streem, also 46, a dentist from the Cleveland suburbs who supports Trump, objected to the way Harris became the nominee.
"She was never part of the running process," he said in a follow-up interview. "She never received the primary votes." He called it "the most undemocratic way of picking a nominee."
Biden stepped back from his re-election race a little more than a month ago, under pressure by party leaders and donors who feared he could not win. That opened the door for an unprecedented quick switch to Harris for the nomination.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Biden's vote share this year never topped 37.5%, and he trailed Trump from as little as half a percentage point last spring − basically, a tie − to nearly four points immediately after the Biden-Trump debate in early summer.
This was the first survey since independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. Independent Cornel West is now at 2%. Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver are at 1% each.
Where on earth is that coming from? There is no chance Harris wins Florida.
Speaking only to the Hillary thing, she lost because the fbi violated DOJ policy and reopened the investigation just prior to the election. Even with that Trump filled an inside straight win. Not saying it won’t happen again, but it’s unlikely.
That and Hillary ran a terrible campaign. Zero appearances in Wisconsin in Sept through November. She took too many voters for granted.
The point, though, is regardless of campaign effectiveness Hillary led Trump by slightly more than Harris is leading Trump.
Things are not going well, and pretending they are is naive.
Not that I’m aware of. I think part of the problem is voter suppression. Maybe 50% of Americans will say they’re going to vote for Harris, but if just one in a hundred is thwarted, the actual vote will not match the poll.
I wouldn’t say they’re not going well because it’s certainly better than the opposite. But you’re correct that Trump always outperforms polls. But Dems/dem issues have also over performed post Roe.
Something polls really can’t account for are variables like currently unregistered first time voters, the effect of abortion amendments on the ballot, and the weighing down effect of bad R down ballot candidates.
It’s a coin flip for sure
Not since Dobbs. Rs have underperformed the polls. The red wave never appeared, special elections went blue, and now we have an anemic Trump campaign being out raised two to one with and just a fraction of the rally sizes Democrats now have. Rs are in serious trouble.
As a resident of rural Iowa, I don't see the visible support for Trump that I saw in previous elections. IMO, a sizeable number of his supporters have tired of him and will quietly go into the voting booth and not vote for a Presidential candidate. They won't share this strategy ahead of time as they'd risk the wrath of the MAGA, vocal, die hard Trump followers . I think most will still vote down ballot for other Republican candidates: supervisors, Congress, representatives, etc. They don't have to vote for Kamala to hurt Trump.
Well polls in late August aren’t static. There is still some room for growth in Kamala’s campaign. Right now we have to see if this is the peak or if debating Trump keeps the surge going.
Undecideds also like to back a winner. The bandwagon fans . It happened that way with Obama in 08. But I agree with u it’s still a close race and Kamala is the underdog.
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I’d also argue that Harris has only been campaigning for a month, and we’ve seen tremendous change in the polling data in that time. Maybe they level off, maybe not. Only thing I’m confident in saying is that we’ve seen trumps high-water mark. I don’t know that we’ve seen Harris’.
When all is said and done I don't think this election will be particularly close. Trump has lost an average of 7-8 points in the month after Biden dropped out. He is being heavily outraised. He still has a plethora of legal problems to deal with, and self inflicted wounds like the Arlington scandal will keep him mired at an absolute ceiling of 46% vote with a very good chance he will settle below that.
Meanwhile Harris is raising record amounts of money, has a volunteer base that dwarfs Trump's, has twice as many field offices, and has abortion on pivotal states. Her ceiling appears to be over 50%. By and large she is running one of the best operational campaigns since Obama.
If I was a Republican I would freaking out right now.
