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NCAA too early projections

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crhawkwrestling

Scout Team
Apr 22, 2015
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Here is my breakdown of each of the top 4 teams with finish and points without bonus

PSU
Mega - 3 - 13.5
Conway - 7 - 6.5
Guilbon - 2-2 - 1.5
Zain - 1 - 20
Nolf - 3 - 13.5
Rasheed - 2-2 - 1.5
Nickal - 3 - 13.5
McC - Rd 12 - 2
Mac - 2 - 16
285 - Not Qualified

Total - 88

OSU
Tomasello - 2 - 16
DiJulius - 7 - 6.5
Jordan - 4 - 12.5
Stieber - 7 - 6.5
Ryan - 2-2 - 1.5
Jordan - 2 - 16
Myles - 7 - 6.5
Courts - Rd12- 2
Martin - 2-2 - 1.5
Snyder - 2 - 16

Total - 85

OkSt
Kilmara - 5 - 10
133 - Not Qualified
Heil - 1 - 20
Collica - 7 - 6.5
Smith - 4 - 12.5
Alex D - 1 - 20
Crut - 4 - 12.5
Boyd -2-2 - 1.5
197 - Not Qualified
Mardsen - 5 - 10

Total - 93

Iowa
Gillman - 1- 20
Clark - 1 - 20
Carton - 2-2 - 1.5 ( Hopefully Grothus who knows)
Sorensen - 2 - 16
Copper - 2-2 - 1.5
Rhodes - Not Qualified
Meyer - 6 - 9
Brooks - 3 - 13.5
Burak - 3 - 13.5
Stoll - 8 - 5.5

Total - 100.5

This is what I have Saturday night with first name as Champ.
Gillman vs Tomasello
Clark vs Garrett
Heil vs McKenna
Retherford vs Sorensen
Martinez vs Miller
Dieringer vs B. Jordan
Realbuto vs Brunson ( Really no clue what is going to happen at this wt; could be one of 10 in the finals)
Dean vs Brown
Cox vs McIntosh
Gwiz vs Synder

Obviously it is going to be a close race and will come down to bonus points. Hawks have great shot if they wrestle to their potential. I feel like Iowa's biggest wild card is where Brooks will finish and if we can get 3 wrestling on Saturday night.
 
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crhawkwrestling said:
Here is my breakdown of each of the top 4 teams with finish and points without bonus

PSU
Mega - 3 - 13.5
Conway - 7 - 6.5
Guilbon - 2-2 - 1.5
Zain - 1 - 20
Nolf - 3 - 13.5
Rasheed - 2-2 - 1.5
Nickal - 3 - 13.5
McC - Rd 12 - 2
Mac - 2 - 16
285 - Not Qualified

Total - 88

OSU
Tomasello - 2 - 16
DiJulius - 7 - 6.5
Jordan - 4 - 12.5
Stieber - 7 - 6.5
Ryan - 2-2 - 1.5
Jordan - 2 - 16
Myles - 7 - 6.5
Courts - Rd12- 2
Martin - 2-2 - 1.5
Snyder - 2 - 16

Total - 85

OkSt
Kilmara - 5 - 10
133 - Not Qualified
Heil - 1 - 20
Collica - 7 - 6.5
Smith - 4 - 12.5
Alex D - 1 - 20
Crut - 4 - 12.5
Boyd -2-2 - 1.5
197 - Not Qualified
Mardsen - 5 - 10

Total - 93

Iowa
Gillman - 1- 20
Clark - 1 - 20
Carton - 2-2 - 1.5 ( Hopefully Grothus who knows)
Sorensen - 2 - 16
Copper - 2-2 - 1.5
Rhodes - Not Qualified
Meyer - 6 - 9
Brooks - 3 - 13.5
Burak - 3 - 13.5
Stoll - 8 - 5.5

Total - 100.5

This is what I have Saturday night with first name as Champ.
Gillman vs Tomasello
Clark vs Garrett
Heil vs McKenna
Retherford vs Sorensen
Martinez vs Miller
Dieringer vs B. Jordan
Realbuto vs Brunson ( Really no clue what is going to happen at this wt; could be one of 10 in the finals)
Dean vs Brown
Cox vs McIntosh
Gwiz vs Synder

Obviously it is going to be a close race and will come down to bonus points. Hawks have great shot if they wrestle to their potential. I feel like Iowa's biggest wild card is where Brooks will finish and if we can get 3 wrestling on Saturday night.
Click to expand...

Kind of curious, out of all the potential guys at 174, why you would go with Brunson? When was the last time he even wrestled? I know 174 is a crapshoot but Brunson seems like an out of nowhere pick.

There sure are 3 really bad weight classes at 157, 165 and especially 174. What are the odds that IMar and Ringer have bonus point wins in every single match? I would think it's very high. Hopefully Meyer can get hot at the right time and make a deep run. Clearly anybody in the top 12 or so could win that weight.
 
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I thought he was solid last year when healthy and literally just picked someone don't really like Realbuto either but he has been there before. I agree it could be anyone in the top 12. Hopefully he's back next week vs PSU and we can see.
 
The catman said:
Agree, it's hard not to picture Nickal wrestling Saturday night.
Click to expand...

I think it's pretty easy to imagine him not being there. Sure, he has a decent chance but so do about 10 other guys. He's beaten some of them but he's by no means a world beater.
 
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I just think he will go for a big throw and get caught just like he did last week. Tough for freshman to get it done but he has looked the best so far.
 
I hope you're right, but it looked to me like Nickal out-classed Realbuto. For the sake of the team race, I hope someone takes him out before Saturday night. I'd expect to see Nickal or Butler on Saturday night, just to name a couple, before I'd expect to see Brunson. But I agree it's wide open at 174 along with a couple of other weights. A strong performance by Meyer and a resurgence by Brody would obviously be huge for the Hawks, given how wide open their weight classes are.
 
Being there in person at the Scuffle, Realbuto is every bit as good as Nickal and I think he beats him in a rematch.

No way does Clark beat Nashon, he is absolutely phenomenal. I think they will be in the finals against each other but Nashon is on another level right now. Sorenson can beat Retherford and Gilman wins a title I think. I think it's a 3 team race with Okie State (I think JoJo makes the finals) and Penn State
 
DayHawk18 said:
Being there in person at the Scuffle, Realbuto is every bit as good as Nickal and I think he beats him in a rematch.

No way does Clark beat Nashon, he is absolutely phenomenal. I think they will be in the finals against each other but Nashon is on another level right now. Sorenson can beat Retherford and Gilman wins a title I think. I think it's a 3 team race with Okie State (I think JoJo makes the finals) and Penn State
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Nolf vs Martinez.

PSU should have four finalists with a possible fifth being Mega...very easy to see: Zain, Nolf, Bo, and Mac in the finals. Winning the B1G is going to be huge for 125 as that will put the champ on the other side of the other two killers....If Mega loses to NATO at the dual, then NATO gets the #1 seed if he remains undefeated. Gilman will have to get through Nico and NATO...Here are the seeds right now:

#1 NATO
#2 Gilman
#3 Dance
#4 Mega

In order of confidence for Gilman:

Dance, NATO, Mega. The only reason I put Nico left is because he is an unknown entity for Gilman. This is why the B1G schedulers totally screwed Iowa by not putting tOSU and PSU on the schedule. Anyways, I got off on the 125 tangent...oops.

We can homer the predictions all we want but Iowa is the one with something to prove considering that they have faded in the tourney the last five years. If our guys get beat, then they need to do work in the consolations instead of moping around like lost puppies.
 
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I hope you are right on the Nickal thing. Seems that as rs freshmen, Nerf and BoNik will be the key to their chances. Let's hope it is a pressure cooker at 74.
 
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No way does Clark beat Nashon at 33. Gillman will have a really tough road. Realistic is Clark maybe 2 or 3 same for Gillman. Brooks 3rd is a pipe dream with cooper qualifying. Okie State doest score more than OSU and PSU. Nickal is your guy to beat at 74.
 
hunterdx55 said:
No way does Clark beat Nashon at 33. Gillman will have a really tough road. Realistic is Clark maybe 2 or 3 same for Gillman. Brooks 3rd is a pipe dream with cooper qualifying. Okie State doest score more than OSU and PSU. Nickal is your guy to beat at 74.
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Nice first post. I expect you to be hearing from HIWILLIE very soon. Too bad we hardly got to know you:rolleyes:
 
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hunterdx55 said:
No way does Clark beat Nashon at 33. Gillman will have a really tough road. Realistic is Clark maybe 2 or 3 same for Gillman. Brooks 3rd is a pipe dream with cooper qualifying. Okie State doest score more than OSU and PSU. Nickal is your guy to beat at 74.
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Anyone that says Brooks 3 is a pipedream is either dense or watches little Iowa/NCAA wrestling. I will be nice an assume you are the latter.
 
hunterdx55 said:
No way does Clark beat Nashon at 33. Gillman will have a really tough road. Realistic is Clark maybe 2 or 3 same for Gillman. Brooks 3rd is a pipe dream with cooper qualifying. Okie State doest score more than OSU and PSU. Nickal is your guy to beat at 74.
Click to expand...
Hey Bud, you're going to find a handful of these guys post from the heart, not always the head.
 
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So you're on record with Iowa winning it all and Penn State finishing a distant third.

I think it will much closer.
 
NittanyChris,
This for me was more of an exercise of how good of chance Iowa actually has at winning a national championship this year. Everything is very realistic. Iowa will have to wrestle well but nothing is outside the realm or even unexpected. Drop Clark to 2nd and Brooks to 5th and Iowa is still expected to have 93. Again this isnt expected point totals or expected finish because it doesn't include bonus points which can swing things with Zain and Nolf expected bonus pt potential late into the tournament.

I created this more for Iowa fans so they could see our potential this year, since normally we have alot of negative nancys. Many of us Iowa fans can see even better results from some spots 141, 174, 149.

Add your own thoughts if you want to stop by otherwise why bother.
 
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crhawk...I just think it will be much closer than your predictions would dictate. Seems you're quite optimistic on nearly every Hawk and pessimistic on nearly every PSU guy. That's fine, this is a Hawkeye board and who really knows in the end anyway? Predictions are simply educated guesses at best.
But just my 2 cents...I don't think Clark beats Garrett. I think you're way high on Brooks. I think Nolf is most likely a top 2 finisher. I think you're too low on McCutcheon who just beat the #5 guy.
To name a few.
 
I agree it's going to be close. Those were just where I placed them with some Hawkeye basis . I feel it will come down to who wins in the semi and finals and who picks up the bonus points.
PSU has 5 potential top 4
OSU has 4 potential top 4
Ok St has 4 potential top 4
Iowa has 5 potential top 4

Definitely going to be who gets it done at NCAA. Is it March yet.
 
We need Nico to beat Nato in the dual then Gillman can get number one seed at big tens and only have to face of them then lef. Not even thinking about who can win lots of time left . Lets just hope everyone is healthy in March and do it on the mat.
 
DayHawk18 said:
Being there in person at the Scuffle, Realbuto is every bit as good as Nickal and I think he beats him in a rematch.

No way does Clark beat Nashon, he is absolutely phenomenal. I think they will be in the finals against each other but Nashon is on another level right now. Sorenson can beat Retherford and Gilman wins a title I think. I think it's a 3 team race with Okie State (I think JoJo makes the finals) and Penn State
Click to expand...

That's a very bold statement, both literally and figuratively. Garrett is great, no doubt, but I wouldn't say there's "no way" Cory Clark beats any particular 133-pounder. Clark is very skilled and extremely crafty, and he's a winner. He didn't make the finals last year by mistake. I'd say Garrett is the favorite, but to claim that Cory has no chance is silly.
 
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Azchief32 said:
Nolf vs Martinez.

PSU should have four finalists with a possible fifth being Mega...very easy to see: Zain, Nolf, Bo, and Mac in the finals. Winning the B1G is going to be huge for 125 as that will put the champ on the other side of the other two killers....If Mega loses to NATO at the dual, then NATO gets the #1 seed if he remains undefeated. Gilman will have to get through Nico and NATO...Here are the seeds right now:

#1 NATO
#2 Gilman
#3 Dance
#4 Mega

In order of confidence for Gilman:

Dance, NATO, Mega. The only reason I put Nico left is because he is an unknown entity for Gilman. This is why the B1G schedulers totally screwed Iowa by not putting tOSU and PSU on the schedule. Anyways, I got off on the 125 tangent...oops.

We can homer the predictions all we want but Iowa is the one with something to prove considering that they have faded in the tourney the last five years. If our guys get beat, then they need to do work in the consolations instead of moping around like lost puppies.
Click to expand...

Not exactly. Gilman wrestled Megaludis his RS freshman year in the Iowa-PSU meet in IC. Granted, it was two years ago, but Thomas has at least seen him, and he and the staff presumably have film of that match to analyze.
 
Yea, I know but it's a different Mega and Gilman...Gilman has wrestled Dance and NATO a lot versus one of his first duals a few years back. Part of TGs strength is that too many wilt under his 7 minutes of pressure...Mega won't so Gilman is going to have to beat him offensively.
 
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I don't know that they're necessarily all that different from two years ago in terms of the match-up. Their styles are still very similar as far as I can tell. Gilman's a lot better -- I know that. I suspect Thomas has improved more than Nico has, considering that Gilman was pretty green at that time and Nico was quite experienced. Still, Thomas probably remembers the match pretty well -- as you know, guys at this level can remember details about big matches even years ago -- and I suspect that film study of Nico's tendencies from that match could still be helpful. I like Thomas' chances against Nico about as well as I like them against Tomasello or Dance.
 
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So I dont watch wrestling because i think its a pipe dream to think the guy that finished 4th a midlands is taking 3rd at nationals...thats like me putting on blue and white glasses saying cutch is taking 3rd...
 
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hunterdx55 said:
No way does Clark beat Nashon at 33. Gillman will have a really tough road. Realistic is Clark maybe 2 or 3 same for Gillman. Brooks 3rd is a pipe dream with cooper qualifying. Okie State doest score more than OSU and PSU. Nickal is your guy to beat at 74.
Click to expand...

Baloney. Garrett is probably the favorite, but no reasonable fan would make this kind of a claim.

Brooks at 3rd is far from a pipe dream, at least to the reasonable fan.
 
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Gilman is better than Megaludis. I think he will dominate the match but Ludis well grab legs and wasted time so the score will be close. Clark will break Garrett. Brooks could easily finish top 3. Taylor had to stall his ass off to beat him.
 
Lol these PSU trolls are cute. Brooks at 3rd is "way too high" but McCutcheon at round of 12 is too low because "he beat the #5 guy."

Dudley was #5 because he had an easy path at Midlands. He lost to Gravina the same month that Brooks curb stomped him. I'll bet that Zilmer, Brooks and Dechow all finish higher than Dudley and McCutcheon this March.
 
WWDMHawkeye said:
That's a very bold statement, both literally and figuratively. Garrett is great, no doubt, but I wouldn't say there's "no way" Cory Clark beats any particular 133-pounder. Clark is very skilled and extremely crafty, and he's a winner. He didn't make the finals last year by mistake. I'd say Garrett is the favorite, but to claim that Cory has no chance is silly.
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I caught the Wisconsin dual, and Cory just looked p#@$!d off, and literally manhandled Taylor. Some could say that Taylor is just coming back from injury, but the guy is still talented, and Cory ate his lunch (not to mention that Cory is also not 100% also). NG is the #1 guy now, but to say that Cory can't beat him is a joke. Cory has proven the last 2 years that come tourney time, he's ready. I say Cory 4-2 over Brewer in the finals. I'm not counting out Cody either.
 
fleming24 said:
Eight AA's and those results would be AWESOME IMO Iowa needs at least ONE champion and a total of Eight AA's to win
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I think Gillman is our best shot at a champ. I think those top 4 are pretty dang even.

I really hope Burak can get on the opposite side of Mccintosh. I think he could beat cox but not mcc. Who knows though. It's pretty obvious Burak is much improved.
 
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