First, the point of a redshirt year is to allow a raw recruit sufficient time to develop into his full potential before competing at the NCAA level. In addition to wrestling up at a weight he himself said he is not comfortable during his RS season in that match against Plott last year, Gabe should be significantly better in his RSFR year than he was in his shirt year at whatever weight. In addition, Plott improved significantly between the 23 and 24 years. In 23, not only did he lose twice to Brands (5th at NCAAs and both razor thin matches) but also to such luminaries as DeVos (R12), Foca (R12), Mocco (8th), and Olmos (R16). In 24, his place improved from 6th to RU and he only lost 3X to undefeated champ Keckeisen and once to Pinto, who he split matches with at CKLV early in the season. I think you're putting way too much into one loss by a redshirt wrestling up at an uncomfortable weight against the eventual runner-up whose level appears to have jumped from the prior year (likely after getting out from under a strength-sapping OSU cut).
Of course, may the best man win. They both should and will have a fair shot to win the spot. My point is that if Gabe isn't in a position to win it this year, that is a bad thing for Iowa.