But he won't research any of it. Here are some reasonably accurate answers, however:
1. How much do you think the Earth will warm in the next 10, 50, 100 and 200 years? That is, what do you think the average temperature will be, compared to this year, at those times?
The answer is not as 'simple', as you would like. It depends on how much we emit in the next hundred years, and IPCC has put out 4 'scenarios' for what we can expect dependent on what the actual emissions are. This is ONE of the 'inputs' to models that is updated retrospectively, because no one can predict a 2007 recession and economic slowdown which stalls emissions a few year.
But, right now we are warming 0.16°C per decade; if that rate remains flat, it means a MINIMUM of 1.6°C in the next 100 years. However, that rate has been going up (with accelerating emissions); thus, staying BELOW 2.0°C by 2100 is rather dicey at this point. And CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 100-300 years, so that 'forcing' will mean temperatures may not level off for many hundreds of years, perhaps up to 1000 years (if the oceans stop being a net 'absorber' of CO2, levels will spike; if permafrost starts becoming a net emitter of CO2 and methane; if we destabilize methane hydrates in the oceans - all of these are long-term feedbacks/tipping points which have LIKELY accelerated warming in the paleo record; once we initiate those responses, global warming will accelerate regardless of what we do, because we've triggered a point of no return).
2. How much of this warming do you attribute to human activity? A rough estimate is fine. You seem to attribute all of it to humans. Is that the case?
Nearly all of the "97%" attribute more than half of the current warming to human-cause influences. More recent analysis puts the recent warming at >90% human cause, because there are simply NO natural feedbacks/forcings which can match the data. Solar output has dropped in the past 50-70 years, and there are not many other natural options left. Plus, CO2 levels have spiked from 280ppm to >400 ppm; we KNOW that we are the source of these CO2 levels because isotope analysis shows very clearly that the CO2 is from sequestered oil and coal sources, NOT natural biota.
3. What do you think the result of this will be? Flooding in Miami and New York? Disappearance of the ice at the poles? Extinction of species? Food shortages? The demise of the snowmobile industry? In other words, what horrors will be wreaked upon those innocents Parser is so worried about?
Flooding will not be limited to "Miami and New York"; the West Antarctic ice sheet has already destabilized, and will continue to erode for many hundreds of years UNLESS the warming going on stops very soon and re-stabilizes it. That ice sheet alone will account for >6 feet of sea level rise. This will ultimately devastate the U.S. East coast, and coastal regions all over the world. More than 1 billion people live along coasts and are likely to be displaced in the long haul. You can Google up the specific details if I have any numbers inaccurate here - this WILL NOT happen in my lifetime or yours, but our grandkids will probably start seeing the impacts and will be stuck with the costs and impacts. It is also highly likely that continued emissions will impact sea life as a major food source.
Destabilization of livable land areas, food shortages and water shortages (which are happening already, and warming will only exacerbate them) will lead to regional and possibly global conflicts over resources.
4. What do you think Americans can do to ameliorate the problem? Are there steps we could take that would halt the warming trend?
Accelerate lowering our CO2 emissions by 2030. The world needs to be 'carbon neutral' within the next 50 years to minimize the long-term impacts. That cannot happen overnight, but we need to start somewhere.
Follow the Chinese lead with renewable energy sources. Push back on the major electricity providers and force them to pay net-metered rates for private solar generation (instead of the paltry amounts currently being paid). Provide infrastructure for local off-grid storage - instead of building new major power lines, start identifying where to build storage facilities and infrastructure to support them now, so in 5-10 years when battery technologies mature and are cheap, we are ready to 'plug & play' immediately. Put R&D resources and tax credits into energy storage to get it to the point it is economically viable.
Put together international agreements on tax-neutral carbon taxes (revenues go back to consumers, or go to R&D efforts on batteries and renewables). Put significant tariffs on products originating from or shipping from countries who do not support the agreement, or who are not in compliance. If you make your stuff with carbon-neutral energy, you then have a major economic advantage over those using oil or coal.
