Objective Perspective

[rendango]

Now that my emotions have settled a bit, I think its a good time to make a fair assessment of what our expectations should be for the remainder of the season. Look, I think Iowa has overachieved this year and is a really solid team in mid February, while showing no signs of falling apart. They can beat anyone at home. They can also lose to anyone on the road. I think we should establish realistic expectations from here on out. What should we be happy with and what would make us disappointed. I say this while keeping in mind that I think next year will be a very very special season where we should expect to compete for the Big Ten title and a top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten Regular Season: I would be happy with a top 4 finish.
Big Ten Tournament: I would be happy making the Big Ten semifinals.
NCAA Tournament: I would be happy making the Sweet 16.
***I would be disappointed if we fall short of any of these because I think we are capable of reaching those levels.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Now that my emotions have settled a bit, I think its a good time to make a fair assessment of what our expectations should be for the remainder of the season. Look, I think Iowa has overachieved this year and is a really solid team in mid February, while showing no signs of falling apart. They can beat anyone at home. They can also lose to anyone on the road. I think we should establish realistic expectations from here on out. What should we be happy with and what would make us disappointed. I say this while keeping in mind that I think next year will be a very very special season where we should expect to compete for the Big Ten title and a top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten Regular Season: I would be happy with a top 4 finish.
Big Ten Tournament: I would be happy making the Big Ten semifinals.
NCAA Tournament: I would be happy making the Sweet 16.
***I would be disappointed if we fall short of any of these because I think we are capable of reaching those levels.

So you say that we have overachieved, and then the three "expectations" for the rest of the year include things that haven't been done since 2006 (Big Ten semifinals) and making the Sweet 16 (1999).

If Iowa has really overachieved so far this year (and I would agree to a large extent) then just making the NCAA tournament is in and of itself a great year. Look, I want a Top 4 finish and all of the things you mention as much as anyone, but I'd put it at under 50% for any of the 3 happening. Best shot is probably making it to Saturday at the BTT. Iowa's remaining schedule in Big 10 play is brutal, 4 road games, 3 home games. All Quad 1 games. Even going 4-3 in those games might not be enough to get to the Top 4. That would put Iowa at 12-8, and we'd be in tiebreaker territory at best.

Iowa can make the Sweet 16, especially if they get matched up with teams they haven't played before or even last year. But we shall see how the season plays out. It's been enjoyable so far. As long as the team doesn't get injuries and they play hard, whatever happens happens.

 

[Suterman]

I would be happy if ANY one of your 3 expectations happen. Finishing Top 4 in the conference is going to be EXTREMELY difficult with our remaining schedule. I would say we have a 30-40% chance of that happening. Making the BiG Semi-Finals would be great and is the most probable of your expectations. We have a 50/50 shot at that happening, I think. Sweet 16 this year I would put at 10%. We don't have any depth whatsoever and I think our Sweet 16 chances are very, very slim. I have been very happy with this season so far and missing ALL of your expectations would not ruin the season for me. If we win 3 or 4 of our last 7 I will be quite satisfied with the season.

 

[rendango]

To explain a little better, my "happy" is not what I am expecting. It is what I believe is possible for our best case scenarios to finish off a great season. These are my highest expectations. I am a fan who wants the best outcome so I would be lying if I said I would be happy with a first or second round loss in the NCAA tourney. I think we have the potential to hit those best case scenarios. But I am not saying we should be mad if we dont.

 

[SotaHawk87]

I’ll be happy just hearing Iowa’s name on selection Sunday. After that it’s all a crapshoot and matchups anyway!

 

[iowalawhawk]

I'd be very happy if:

We get to the Sweet 16 (get that monkey off our backs)
Garza wins the Wooden Award

I'd be really disappointed if:

We miss the tournament
We lose in 1st round of BTT
Garza isn't 1st team AA

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I would be happy if ANY one of your 3 expectations happen. Finishing Top 4 in the conference is going to be EXTREMELY difficult with our remaining schedule. I would say we have a 30-40% chance of that happening. Making the BiG Semi-Finals would be great and is the most probable of your expectations. We have a 50/50 shot at that happening, I think. Sweet 16 this year I would put at 10%. We don't have any depth whatsoever and I think our Sweet 16 chances are very, very slim. I have been very happy with this season so far and missing ALL of your expectations would not ruin the season for me. If we win 3 or 4 of our last 7 I will be quite satisfied with the season.

Just curious, what seed are you projecting us at to only give us a 10% chance at the Sweet 16? I'm guessing you've got to have us in the 7-9 range for that low of a probability. As a 4-6, I'd say our odds would be more in the 40% range.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

My expectations prior to the season were that they would be a team that would end up on the wrong side of the bubble.

It looks reasonably solid now that they will make the tourney. More than that is a bonus.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Regular Season:
Happy: Earn double bye
Disappointed: Below .500

BTT:
Happy: Semifinals
Disappointed: 0-1

Seeding (adding this, even though it is strongly correlated with the NCAAT result):
Happy: 5 seed or better
Disappointed: 8 seed or worse

NCAA Tournament:
Happy: Sweet 16
Disappointed: 0-1

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

I have been warning against getting too optimistic, but the OP's expectations are closer to best case scenario than objective with our depleted roster. I do think a 12-8 finish is definitely possible, and that could but us in the top 4 in the B1G, which would improve our chances to get to at least the semi's of the B1G tournament with a double bye. Those accomplishments would then help our NCAA seating, and probably make us a 5 or 6, which would improve our chance to get to the Sweet 16. I completely agree that next year could be a great year for the team, if everyone stays healthy and comes back (except maybe Pemsl).

Getting to 12-8 would be even more possible with a win Thursday against the struggling Hosers. Tough place to play, but all the remaining road games are brutal. GO HAWKS!

 

[Suterman]

Just curious, what seed are you projecting us at to only give us a 10% chance at the Sweet 16? I'm guessing you've got to have us in the 7-9 range for that low of a probability. As a 4-6, I'd say our odds would be more in the 40% range.

I'm guessing probably a #7 or #8 seed. Me putting our chances of making the Sweet 16 @ 10% is based on us NOT making the Sweet 16 since Tom Davis was our coach.

 

[DodgerHawki]

I'm guessing probably a #7 or #8 seed. Me putting our chances of making the Sweet 16 @ 10% is based on us NOT making the Sweet 16 since Tom Davis was our coach.

Agree Suterman. If Iowa goes 3-4 the rest of the way (entirely possible, and doesn't mean Iowa collapsed), Iowa is likely headed toward a 7-10 seed given the NET rankings. When you are in that range, it means you are highly likely to play a very good team in Round 2.

 

[Herky T Hawk]

Regular Season:
Happy: Earn double bye
Disappointed: Below .500

BTT:
Happy: Semifinals
Disappointed: 0-1

Seeding (adding this, even though it is strongly correlated with the NCAAT result):
Happy: 5 seed or better
Disappointed: 8 seed or worse

NCAA Tournament:
Happy: Sweet 16
Disappointed: 0-1

Agree completly. I can be content, especially considering the start of the year with all of the injuries, with somewhere in-between the happy and disappointed line. Honestly most of us expected to miss the tourney this year after losing Cook and Moss. Add to that losing JBo, Nunge, and Patrick for the season and everyone would have predicted that we would be struggling to make the NIT.

Our team right now is a house of cards with some elite pieces at the top in Garza and Joe. Some good pieces the level below in Joe T, Connor, CJ, and Kreiner. But some major cracks in the foundation when you consider our bench pretty much just provides rest minutes for the starters as opposed to any reasonable amount of point production that most teams expect from their bench. Heck we just went 1.5 games straight without any bench points.

A deep run in the Big Ten Tourney is going to be really tough with our barely existent bench. No rest days will kill our starters. But the NCAA is a different story. With the right matchups and rest days, we could go deep.

 

[Ronman]

Frankly, given our limited bench, it wouldn't bother me a ton if we exited the BTT in the second round. We could use the rest. And for a team that was universally picked to finish in the bottom third of the conference, making the tournament would be a great achievement. The B1G seems to be underseeded now by most bracketologists. If we are were to wind up with a 8/9 seed and win that game, I hope we get matched up with the #1 seeded San Diego St.

 

[ZumaHawk]

Exiting the BTT early to me would be a bummer. It would only mean a lower seed in the NCAA tourney. Even if we were to play well in the BTT the amount of time off should still be enough to play fresh in the first game of the NCAA's. Even though I totally understand your logic Ronman!!

 

[paladinhawk]

I'm guessing probably a #7 or #8 seed.

That seems too low IMO. I think as of today they're a 5 or 6 seed.

 

[Rudolph]

I’m happy we can even have a thread like this at this point in this season. I was not expecting this back in early Fall and then really not optimistic on this level when I watched Nunge limp into the tunnel.

A few games into the year my optimism had nothing to do with tournament prospects this year. Rather I was just optimistic that CJ clearly knew how to play, Garza was vastly improved, Toussaint was something new and fresh. Early December I was just enjoying a new energy in the roster, and kind of dreaming about 2020-21.

This whole season, both men and women, has been really fun.

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

Agree Suterman. If Iowa goes 3-4 the rest of the way (entirely possible, and doesn't mean Iowa collapsed), Iowa is likely headed toward a 7-10 seed given the NET rankings. When you are in that range, it means you are highly likely to play a very good team in Round 2.

So, play a 'really good' team, like Maryland, who we split with on the
season?

 

[Suterman]

So, play a 'really good' team, like Maryland, who we split with on the
season?

The #7 or #8 seed ends up playing the #1 or #2 seed in Game 2. Could be Maryland possibly, but maybe more likely a Gonzaga, or a Duke. That usually happens to Iowa.

 

[DodgerHawki]

So, play a 'really good' team, like Maryland, who we split with on the
season?

Could be sure. And in that case, you are looking at a less than 50% chance of winning that gamee.

 

[walleye hunter16]

NCAA seeds are almost irrelevant anymore.
Do people pay attention to how often top 25 teams lose games these days.
Any given night a team in the top 64 in the NCAA can run another team out of the building. Iowa has done it/had it done to them this season.
There will be a few, very few, weaker teams that end up making the field but by in large every game has strong potential to be a battle for any team.

 

[kceasthawk]

I'm guessing probably a #7 or #8 seed. Me putting our chances of making the Sweet 16 @ 10% is based on us NOT making the Sweet 16 since Tom Davis was our coach.

But really has nothing to do with this years team. Yes we are thin, but this is as tough a group as we have had for decades. It all comes down to the seeding I think. If we can get in the 4-6 range, then I think we have a decent sweet 16 shot. 7-9 and its a crap shoot.....

 

[Suterman]

But really has nothing to do with this years team. Yes we are thin, but this is as tough a group as we have had for decades. It all comes down to the seeding I think. If we can get in the 4-6 range, then I think we have a decent sweet 16 shot. 7-9 and its a crap shoot.....

If we finish in the 4-6 range, I agree with you. My guess is that we don't and finish as a 7 or 8 seed which means we prolly don't get to the Sweet 16.

 

[paladinhawk]

NCAA seeds are almost irrelevant anymore.
.

With all due respect that is utter bull crap. Last year 14 teams of the the sweet 16 teams were top 4 seeds. If seeding were irrelevant than the 5 to 16 seeds (75% of all teams) would be be in the sweet 16 at a much higher percentage than 12.5%. You're also ignoring the 'play close to home so more fans can attend' advantage top seeds generally get.

 

[iahawks10]

This has been one of the most unpredictable Iowa teams I can remember. From being blown out by DePaul, to up 17 against SDSU, back to losing to Nebraska. They’ve beat Maryland, ILL and a couple other ranked teams. When this team is on, I don’t think there’s a team in the country that Iowa couldn’t beat. I really don’t. When they come flat, there’s many teams that will destroy Iowa too.


Very thin line up overall. Garza will get his points regardless of the defensive game plan. The key is Wieskamp and CJ being able to hit and Connor playing the glue guy. Toussaint can also be a key playing under control and getting to the rim at times. Mainly he just needs to eliminate careless turnovers. He plays solid defense for the most part.

 

[Underscore2]

To be brutally honest I would be happy with:

- Beating Penn State into the ground on 2/29.

- Making some of the Purdue players run to their mommies and question if they wanna stay in basketball after being ruthlessly pummeled on 3/3.

- Stealing one @ MSU or @ Illinois.

The rest I.E. top 4 conf finish and NCAA run would just be gravy.

Do not care about the conf tournament at all. Ever since winning it and then NW State, I’ve stopped caring about that unless we need more quality wins for a bid. It doesn’t seem to affect NCAA seeding that much.

 

[thirdandpunting]

Love the name of the thread... It’s ironic... don’t you think?

 

[HawkLogic]

Sure these Hawks have overachieved pre-season expectations. Much of it is due to Garza. Garza has transformed himself into All-American from a decent player who could give you 13pts on offense but give up the same amount on defense. One has to also give credit to Fran for Fredrick turning out to be legit stud and getting JoeT on campus.

Finishing in true top 4 (i.e not a 3-way or 4-way tie for 3rd place) and making it to B1G Saturday game seem possible. This is 10 years into Fran's run, those type expectations i.e. to finish in top 4 and make a Saturday game in BTT once in 10 years are …..expected.

 

[jasonrann]

Regular Season:
Happy: Earn double bye
Disappointed: Below .500

BTT:
Happy: Semifinals
Disappointed: 0-1

Seeding (adding this, even though it is strongly correlated with the NCAAT result):
Happy: 5 seed or better
Disappointed: 8 seed or worse

NCAA Tournament:
Happy: Sweet 16
Disappointed: 0-1

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

Could be sure. And in that case, you are looking at a less than 50% chance of winning that gamee.

Possibly. What IF Iowa runs the table in February and early March, then Iowa is the 2 or 3 seed ?

 

[SSG T]

I'm guessing probably a #7 or #8 seed. Me putting our chances of making the Sweet 16 @ 10% is based on us NOT making the Sweet 16 since Tom Davis was our coach.

7 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 20% of the time, 8 seeds about 10% of the time.

6 seeds - 31%
5 seeds - 34%
4 seeds - 47%

Strangely, 6 seeds make the Elite 8 almost twice as much as 5 seeds, despite a lower winning % in every other round.

 

[Immersed]

7 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 20% of the time, 8 seeds about 10% of the time.

6 seeds - 31%
5 seeds - 34%
4 seeds - 47%

Strangely, 6 seeds make the Elite 8 almost twice as much as 5 seeds, despite a lower winning % in every other round.

Likely due to a 6 more likely playing a 2 and 5 playing a 1 to get to the FF. Plus, 2’s are more likely to have been upset by then.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

If (and that is a big if) Iowa can get to 12-8, there is a good chance that we would be a top 4 seed, or at least tied for fourth. If we then win even one game in the BTT, Iowa will be at least a 6 seed, IMO, and that would greatly improve our shot at a Sweet 16. Like I said, all that is probably the best case, realistic scenario.

 

[iahawks10]

If (and that is a big if) Iowa can get to 12-8, there is a good chance that we would be a top 4 seed, or at least tied for fourth. If we then win even one game in the BTT, Iowa will be at least a 6 seed, IMO, and that would greatly improve our shot at a Sweet 16. Like I said, all that is probably the best case, realistic scenario.

Actually, this is a big

IF

 

[Ihawkhoops]

Iowa should be in all of their remaining games barring Iowa playing like they did at Nebraska or opponents shooting like Purdue did. I think the line between going 4-3 and 2-5 will be razor thin and will hinge on contributions from Connor, Kriener and Joe T. Pretty high probability we get solid contributions Garza, CJ and JW, but the others have to step up to take some of the pressure off of them and exploit defenses giving them open looks. If those 3 combine to score 20 ppg I like Iowa's chances to go 4-3.

 

[Hawksfor3]

If (and that is a big if) Iowa can get to 12-8, there is a good chance that we would be a top 4 seed, or at least tied for fourth. If we then win even one game in the BTT, Iowa will be at least a 6 seed, IMO, and that would greatly improve our shot at a Sweet 16. Like I said, all that is probably the best case, realistic scenario.

I'm thinking an 11-9 finish with an unlikely flip on the Indiana game Thurs. Would like to see us get to semis in BTT and get at least a 6 seed, preferably a 5. Who knows what will happen then?

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

I'll be happy if we achieve my preseason prediction, exactly the same record as last year.

Right now an invite to the round of 64 makes for a good season. Couple of unexpected wins could put us in the 2nd round with a great shot at the Sweet 16. That's the next objective.

 

[CleteyColgate]

Now that my emotions have settled a bit, I think its a good time to make a fair assessment of what our expectations should be for the remainder of the season. Look, I think Iowa has overachieved this year and is a really solid team in mid February, while showing no signs of falling apart. They can beat anyone at home. They can also lose to anyone on the road. I think we should establish realistic expectations from here on out. What should we be happy with and what would make us disappointed. I say this while keeping in mind that I think next year will be a very very special season where we should expect to compete for the Big Ten title and a top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten Regular Season: I would be happy with a top 4 finish.
Big Ten Tournament: I would be happy making the Big Ten semifinals.
NCAA Tournament: I would be happy making the Sweet 16.
***I would be disappointed if we fall short of any of these because I think we are capable of reaching those levels.

The first one might be the hardest. Top 6 in Big 10 would be great

 

[CRWash63]

Now that my nerves have settled a bit,
my predisposition to assume that the predictions for this team compared to those of yonder days make me look back to see forward with some misgivings and great ponderance. Frankly I don't know wether to cogitate, ruminate or reflect on the lack of some players to do anything when they get into the game except throw a bounce pass into the lane to the other team or focus on GARZA THE GREAT AND WIESKAMP THE WONDER BOY! Let's roll the dice at Indiana and spin the wheel of forture. Our five cards on the floor should be Ace, King, Queen, Jack and Ten!!