A
anon_ts5cfra6drv7r
Guest
Moved last week and I start work in Pensacola on Monday. Hopefully it stays away from the gulf. Really don’t feel like dealing with a hurricane my first official week in town. At least give me some time to get settled first.
That is insensitive, but I admit to laughing. Mainly because I have been to a 7-11 in Chicago.
I saw an asshole gas station charging $2.95 today. Average is $2.39.
Is " Dorian " a male storm, female, other or am I an uniformed misogynist...
Good news everyone. Trump has cancelled his trip to Poland. Mike Pence is going, instead. I assume mother is going with him.
Now you can all sit there in Florida and follow Trump's twitter feed as he urges you to take shelter at Doral.
Now you can all sit there in Florida and follow Trump's twitter feed as he urges you to take shelter at Doral.
So much this. The entire state is in the "Cone of Uncertainty"... millions of people are going to buy a bunch of crap they wont end up needing.
Cat 4 roaring ashore with a vengeance. Think of your first wife when the alimony was late.
Mods, can all of Trad's hurricane related threads be moved into this one?
I guess she did take half the house...
A
anon_ts5cfra6drv7r
Guest
Just listened before you posted. Stalling a bit could be very very bad news for Florida.
Btw MCO will be shut down starting at 7am Sunday-Tuesday (tentatively).
A
anon_ts5cfra6drv7r
Guest
And the timing keeps getting farther away. First it was Sunday, now it's Monday or even Tuesday and Wednesday if it lazily flows north up the spine of the state like Irma did (but she was in and out quick... this will be a rainmaker).
Windy.com is currently forecasting a direct strike at Boca Raton, Florida... then it curves through the sparsely-populated areas between Orlando and Tampa making a direct hit on Gainesville, and then passing Jacksonville to the west and wreaking havoc from Savannah to Virginia Beach!
https://www.windy.com/
https://www.windy.com/
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move
near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane
on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the
weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:
The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 68.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue
into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight
and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move
near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane
on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the
weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:
The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
118
WTNT45 KNHC 300256
TCDAT5
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019
The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful
information about what has changed during the past several hours.
They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent
SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds).
These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show
Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this
afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.
The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian
is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday,
and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern
Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in
a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the
guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to
challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days,
along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you
can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder
the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path
of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.
There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the
south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission,
which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day.
As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop
somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level
low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be
pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air
entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification
while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the
intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with
the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents
should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given
by local emergency officials.
2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.
4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Blake
WTNT45 KNHC 300256
TCDAT5
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019
The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful
information about what has changed during the past several hours.
They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent
SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds).
These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show
Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this
afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.
The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian
is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday,
and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern
Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in
a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the
guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to
challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days,
along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you
can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder
the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path
of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.
There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the
south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission,
which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day.
As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop
somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level
low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be
pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air
entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification
while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the
intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with
the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents
should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given
by local emergency officials.
2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.
4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Blake
A
anon_ts5cfra6drv7r
Guest
The 11pm update is pointing at almost worst case scenario. Cat 4 at landfall
Yeah, but it's farther south. I don't care if Palm Beach County gets smashed. I left that leftist hellhole 12 years ago.
The 11pm update is pointing at almost worst case scenario. Cat 4 at landfall
I am right in eye of the storm based off that projection. Half a mile off the ocean. Good news is that I am not in a flood zone. Lastly the projection should continue to shift. The projection has been very volatile.
The cone has been steadily shifting south. Hopefully that continues.
A
anon_ts5cfra6drv7r
Guest
I'd assume not. He's said he can't be in the same room as another woman alone. Mom needs to watch out.
Florida’s going to be pregnant after that ...Uh oh
No. Further south might put it in the gulf. Then the track is more volatile.
Anyone have eyes on the Tallahassee gas Station threads in the Locker room? My wife still wants to go up for the game but I think it's crazy. I'm cheap so I can't read those threads.
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