Poll: The Squad and Gerrymandering

[TJ8869]

What was amazing about AOC is she out-hustled a long-serving incumbent in her ultra-blue district.

Although, the incumbent probably took his seat for granted and didn't try to campaign hard until it was too late.

He never saw it coming. He hadn't faced a primary challenger in 14 years. His own campaign's internal polling numbers showed him ahead by 35 points just three weeks before the primary. He didn't even bother to show up to a debate.

There is an unwritten rule among Democrats that they don't primary an incumbent Democrat, especially someone like Crowley who was a 10-term incumbent and the 4th highest ranking Democrat in the House. But AOC ignored that rule and to her credit she worked hard and built enough of a grass-roots following to knock him off.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

Gerrymandering in Iowa can still occur without changing the extant system.

If the first two (nonpartisan derived) redistricting maps are not approved, a third map that is amendable could be brought forth.

Reynolds and Whitver only stated they had no intentions of changing the system.

They didn’t promise to remain nonpartisan should the opportunity arise.

CD-3 is likely to become the near impossible district for Republicans going forward, because Polk, Story and Dallas county will be about 85-90% of a congressional district. Throw a few rural counties in there to round it out, but none of them will be able to make much of a dent in the margin run up in Polk.

Then they still have the 380 corridor and Scott Co. to worry about. By splitting IC metro and CR metro, as it is now, it keeps them extremely competitive. By combining them, you'd have a 2nd rock solid blue district. The continued migration patterns in the state toward urbanization in Iowa has meant that it's going to be pretty much impossible for Republicans to have a more advantageous situation than they enjoy right now.

 

[Lone Clone]

CD-3 is likely to become the near impossible district for Republicans going forward, because Polk, Story and Dallas county will be about 85-90% of a congressional district. Throw a few rural counties in there to round it out, but none of them will be able to make much of a dent in the margin run up in Polk.

Then they still have the 380 corridor and Scott Co. to worry about. By splitting IC metro and CR metro, as it is now, it keeps them extremely competitive. By combining them, you'd have a 2nd rock solid blue district. The continued migration patterns in the state toward urbanization in Iowa has meant that it's going to be pretty much impossible for Republicans to have a more advantageous situation than they enjoy right now.

I don't know how advantageous it is when two incumbent Republicans were beaten by unknowns. It is highly unlikely a Republican will replace Loebsack or a Democrat will replace King, but the other two at this point are competitive. The service bureau will have its work cut out for it if the migration to urban centers continues.

Maybe next time will be the time when the nuclear option comes into play in the Iowa redistricting system -- but that's part of the system, too.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

I don't know how advantageous it is when two incumbent Republicans were beaten by unknowns. It is highly unlikely a Republican will replace Loebsack or a Democrat will replace King, but the other two at this point are competitive. The service bureau will have its work cut out for it if the migration to urban centers continues.

Maybe next time will be the time when the nuclear option comes into play in the Iowa redistricting system -- but that's part of the system, too.

Well, the point I was generally trying to get across was that even if they do go nuclear, it's just going to be really hard to find any way to draw a map where 2 of the districts aren't going to be really difficult for Republicans. If you're gonna be pretty heavily stacked toward 2 on one side and 2 on the other, you're probably just best of with what we have now where 4 can be pretty competitive consistently. CD-4 is going to have to get more urban/suburban than it is now. There's just no way to pack in a bunch of blue voters into one district and have 3 moderately Republican districts because of the two major population centers.

 

[joelbc1]

CD-3 is likely to become the near impossible district for Republicans going forward, because Polk, Story and Dallas county will be about 85-90% of a congressional district. Throw a few rural counties in there to round it out, but none of them will be able to make much of a dent in the margin run up in Polk.

Then they still have the 380 corridor and Scott Co. to worry about. By splitting IC metro and CR metro, as it is now, it keeps them extremely competitive. By combining them, you'd have a 2nd rock solid blue district. The continued migration patterns in the state toward urbanization in Iowa has meant that it's going to be pretty much impossible for Republicans to have a more advantageous situation than they enjoy right now.

Story is NOT in the 3rd....Dallas is getting more Dems but is solidly GOP and always has been...when they moved the 3rd west back in the day, as opposed to running south/ southeast, even a national treasure like Neal Smith became in play. Dems have to run STRONG candidates in the 3rd or you will get a Repubber in there sure as shit. The current boundaries are set up pretty well for the GOP. A bad cycle like the last one is the only chance the Dems have to ever have a majority of seats....and look for Iowa to lose another congressional seat in 2030. Boys...Iowa ain’t growing much, regardless of what you might hear.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

That map means absolutely nothing.

It's the same " gerrymandering " map that Obama won with... evidently the goat vuckers voted for Obama in '08 & '12...

 

[artradley]

It's the same " gerrymandering " map that Obama won with... evidently the goat vuckers voted for Obama in '08 & '12...

The map looks almost identical every election.

 

[TC Nole OX]

AOC's republican opponent, Tina Forte. She can't win because of gerrymandering.

 

[joelbc1]

So they should gerrymander a district so she can win?

 

[TJ8869]

AOC's republican opponent, Tina Forte. She can't win because of gerrymandering.

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Lol @ yet another misleading Ron Filipkowski tweet. Forte isn’t “AOC’s Republican opponent”. She’s one of four candidates vying for the GOP nomination in a district where the GOP nominee is guaranteed to get crushed in the general election.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

AOC's republican opponent, Tina Forte. She can't win because of gerrymandering.

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Would red flag laws prevent her from having guns?

Should they?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I suggest we create districts based on the last few digits of Social Security numbers.

Those 08s are effing wackos, but they deserve to pick their own rep, right?

In a world where we communicate, work and entertain ourselves on line, what difference does location make when electing federal reps? It's not like those guys are fixing the streets in our neighborhood.

 

[FAUlty Gator]

AOC's republican opponent, Tina Forte. She can't win because of gerrymandering.

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Wasn’t that the girl who played Kramer’s girlfriend who dumped him in the river?

 

[joelbc1]

Would red flag laws prevent her from having guns?

Should they?

Judging by her mouth, “red flags” should prevent her from running, period.

 

[TC Nole OX]

The super duper crazy Tina Forte

 

[24 so far]

Solid. JVW again posting the map that shows how overwhelmingly the goat humper part of the country votes red. The part of the country that people concentrate in go blue.

You'd be wise to remember those goat humpers own most of the guns, and actually know how to use them.

 

[24 so far]

OMAR for sure no way she could get elected in any kind of moderate district.
AOC I respect her for taking out an incumbent so I didn't vote for her.
Pressley is the group's Ringo Starr nobody knows who she is so I didn't vote for her.
Talib I voted yes because once again I don't believe she is electable in almost any part of Michigan except for what was created.

We're going to find out 2 things shortly in Omar's district. How many of Barry's Somalians live in it, and how many of those want to keep getting shot at walking down the streets of that district by their fellow upstanding citizens.

Minneapolis is being sued for the lack of Police as defined by a city charter of % of Police versus population. Since March of 2020, they are down 281 Officers. Your girl Omar thinks that's a good thing.

And here's a big shocker as a result........from May of 2020 to May of 2021 carjackings rose 222%, Murder 108%, your general everyday Libbyland shootings 153%. I'm sure that's all went away by now though...........LOL!

Here's another shocker.........they are having a hard time replacing those Officers.......nah, I don't believe it! LOL!

Now THAT is progress folks! LOL! Keep up the great work!

 

[Aardvark86]

What was amazing about AOC is she out-hustled a long-serving incumbent in her ultra-blue district.

Although, the incumbent probably took his seat for granted and didn't try to campaign hard until it was too late.

This. Joe Crowley is a great guy but had long since ceased being a citizen of queens. His son went to school and played hockey with my son in va, and joe is on the waiting list to my club in Virginia. So much for cincinnatus. .

 

[Aardvark86]

So they should gerrymander a district so she can win?

Sure, because in that area they can’t gerrymander one where she can lose.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

I think AOC and Tina Forte should settle this once and for all in a hot tub full of jello.

 

[TC Nole OX]

Tina Forte

 

[lucas80]

Tina Forte

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She is a mainstream Republican. The burning, itching, non stop need to be angry.

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[TC Nole OX]

Tina Forte

 

[thewop]

Ayanna Pressley is like the forgotten spice girl.

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[TC Nole OX]

Previous Tina Fonte gems

 

[TC Nole OX]

Outstanding

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

 

[lucas80]

When is a cop going to pull Forte over for filming videos while driving? God bless America, F**K THE HATERS!!
Ooops, I thinks I just run over a kid.

 

[lucas80]

Odd topic for a poll. This should be a matter of fact, not opinion. Post the maps and district data and you will have your answer. While you’re at it, how many Rs hold a gerrymandered district? Get back to us OP. TiA.

It’s always fun to give Natural a like.

 

[lucas80]

WTF are you talking about? Reynolds made about as strong a statement as possible against changing the Iowa system.

LOL, still hiding from me?
Ignorance was always bliss for you. They surely did try to massage the districts, and MMM is the main beneficiary. She’s gone full potato and will probably be re-elected in November.

 

[lucas80]

You'd be wise to remember those goat humpers own most of the guns, and actually know how to use them.

Okay, goat humper.

 

[lucas80]

I gotta be honest. A Forte / AOC threesome is appealing. The crazy matrix and danger zone thrill ride appeals to me.

 

[thewop]

I vote PPV cage match for the house seat.

 

[WDSMHAWK]

Future President AOC

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

AOC's republican opponent, Tina Forte. She can't win because of gerrymandering.

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Get off your motherf*cking phone and drive you idiot motherf*cker….

 

[bdcolt45er]

Ann

Yeah, no way Tlaib would have won Michigan’s 12th district- it includes the conservative stronghold that is Ann Arbor.

Ann Arbor isn't in Tlaib's district. Tlaib's district is Dearborn, Livonia, and Southfield. Ann Arbor is in Debby Dingell's district.