Predicting number of allocations for Big 10
- Thread starter jmadden1998
- Start date
Pre-seeds will come out Monday.
This. His win over Noah Grover from Buffalo was at 165 so that’s thrown out. If he sits against Gfeller, he’s 9-3 against 157 competition which is 75% and he earns an allocation for the conference.
Given that the dual was decided by then, TnT must feel pretty good about him qualifying.
But the shoulder harness makes me think they should have weighed in two guys, instead.
If Cobe can’t finish top 10 at the Big 10 tournament, he’s probably not going to do much at Nationals anyway. He should qualify fairly easy.
Personally, I would always rather see the best guy out there wrestling, and not worry about rankings/seedings/allocations/whatever at the time. Wrestle the matches in front of you with your best possible lineup, and let the chips fall where may
I agree. I’m positive Brands fully believes Cobe will qualify by placing high enough at the Big 10 tourney.
COBE had much to gain with a victory over Gfeller. He won’t be seeded any lower than 6 at Big Ten’s.
Brands might have a tougher time than COBE qualifying,
I am feeling confident we will qualify everyone.
When you look at RPI for PSU (excluding Stencil), everyone not named RBY, Brooks or Kerk. They are top 5 RPI. Things that make you go hmmmm
So is the unstated consensus that Iowa didn't submit Teske to be ranked, to reduce 133 B1G allocations, with the hope this would increase the likelihood of Dresden/Burwick not making NCAAs, given every point counts at NCAAS?
Did Coach Brands address this in some presser?
Looking for closure. Asking for a friend (@mcpat).
I guess I look at allocations a bit different.
It's pretty rare to have some of the last guys to qualify for Nattys score many points. Same could be said of the wild cards.
Without ready data to back up my opinion, these guys are only good for a couple points. For teams competing for trophies...it's the 5/6 big guns that make a dent.
It's pretty rare to have some of the last guys to qualify for Nattys score many points. Same could be said of the wild cards.
Without ready data to back up my opinion, these guys are only good for a couple points. For teams competing for trophies...it's the 5/6 big guns that make a dent.
Flo predicts the seeds.
www.flowrestling.org
First things first, the official seeds are decided on a vote from the Big 10 coaches. There are not set "criteria" for these seeds but for the below seeds we used head-to-head results against Big 10 opponents to sort out the seeds. When there were a group of 3 or 4 wrestlers who traded wins and losses, we then looked at each wrestler's complete resume that included prior years results and competition against out-of-conference opponents.
There aren’t too many challenges in sorting out 125. Spencer Lee is obviously the top spot but Cronin and Ramos could both justifiably be the #2 seed. Both have only lost to Spencer Lee but I gave the edge to Cronin based on the number of his quality wins. This year he’s defeated Eric Barnett, Patrick McKee, Michael DeAugustino, Malik Heinselman, and Dean Peterson. Matt Ramos’ best wins in this field are over Eric Barnett, Patrick McKee, and Braxton Brown.
After that, the rest of the above seeding is based purely on head-to-head results. This won’t be the case for every weight, but the above order doesn’t have any wrestler seeded below a wrestler he defeated on the year.
133 isn’t quite as easy to sort out as 125. The top 3 seeds are clear - RBY, Mendez, and Byrd based on head-to-head results. Things get a little “muddy” after that. Dylan Ragusin hasn’t wrestled Chris Cannon this year but is 2-0 in his career against him. However, Ragusin lost to RayVon Foley but has wins over Heilmann, Porter, and LaMont. I believe the coaches should take into account Ragusin’s past wins over Cannon but they could swap them and it’d be justifiable.
Joe Heilmann has Big 10 wins this year over RayVon Foley, Baylor Shunk, and Boo Dryden while only losing to Cannon, Ragusin, Mendez, and Byrd. Heilmann’s also wrestled a full schedule whereas Brody Teske only has 8 matches on the year. For that reason, Heilmann should get the nod above Teske.
Aaron Nagao could move all the way up to the #6 seed with wins over LaMont, Foley, and Burwick. However, Nagao missed Big 10 matches against both Teske and Byrd. Because of that, I think he’ll fall behind Teske and above Foley.
Speaking of Foley, his only win this year in Big 10 competition was the 12-4 major over Dylan Ragusin. Foley lost to Porter, Byrd, Mendez, RBY, Heilmann, and Nagao. Those losses (especially the one to Porter) could drop Foley lower but I think his win over Ragusin is enough to keep him at the 9.
Predicting Every Seed For The 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships - FloWrestling
Predicting the seeds at every weight for the 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships on March 4-5 in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
www.flowrestling.org
First things first, the official seeds are decided on a vote from the Big 10 coaches. There are not set "criteria" for these seeds but for the below seeds we used head-to-head results against Big 10 opponents to sort out the seeds. When there were a group of 3 or 4 wrestlers who traded wins and losses, we then looked at each wrestler's complete resume that included prior years results and competition against out-of-conference opponents.
125 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Spencer Lee, Iowa
- Liam Cronin, Nebraska
- Matt Ramos, Purdue
- Eric Barnett, Wisconsin
- Patrick McKee, Minnesota
- Michael DeAugustino, Northwestern
- Malik Heinselman, Ohio State
- Braxton Brown, Maryland
- Dean Peterson, Rutgers
- Jack Medley, Michigan
- Gary Steen, Penn State
- Tristan Lujan, Michigan State
- Jacob Moran, Indiana
- Maximo Renteria, Illinois
There aren’t too many challenges in sorting out 125. Spencer Lee is obviously the top spot but Cronin and Ramos could both justifiably be the #2 seed. Both have only lost to Spencer Lee but I gave the edge to Cronin based on the number of his quality wins. This year he’s defeated Eric Barnett, Patrick McKee, Michael DeAugustino, Malik Heinselman, and Dean Peterson. Matt Ramos’ best wins in this field are over Eric Barnett, Patrick McKee, and Braxton Brown.
After that, the rest of the above seeding is based purely on head-to-head results. This won’t be the case for every weight, but the above order doesn’t have any wrestler seeded below a wrestler he defeated on the year.
133 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State
- Jesse Mendez, Ohio State
- Lucas Byrd, Illinois
- Dylan Ragusin, Michigan
- Chris Cannon, Northwestern
- Joe Heilmann, Rutgers
- Brody Teske, Iowa
- Aaron Nagao, Minnesota
- RayVon Foley, Michigan State
- Taylor LaMont, Wisconsin
- Henry Porter, Indiana
- Kyle Burwick, Nebraska
- Dustin Norris, Purdue
- King Sandoval, Maryland
133 isn’t quite as easy to sort out as 125. The top 3 seeds are clear - RBY, Mendez, and Byrd based on head-to-head results. Things get a little “muddy” after that. Dylan Ragusin hasn’t wrestled Chris Cannon this year but is 2-0 in his career against him. However, Ragusin lost to RayVon Foley but has wins over Heilmann, Porter, and LaMont. I believe the coaches should take into account Ragusin’s past wins over Cannon but they could swap them and it’d be justifiable.
Joe Heilmann has Big 10 wins this year over RayVon Foley, Baylor Shunk, and Boo Dryden while only losing to Cannon, Ragusin, Mendez, and Byrd. Heilmann’s also wrestled a full schedule whereas Brody Teske only has 8 matches on the year. For that reason, Heilmann should get the nod above Teske.
Aaron Nagao could move all the way up to the #6 seed with wins over LaMont, Foley, and Burwick. However, Nagao missed Big 10 matches against both Teske and Byrd. Because of that, I think he’ll fall behind Teske and above Foley.
Speaking of Foley, his only win this year in Big 10 competition was the 12-4 major over Dylan Ragusin. Foley lost to Porter, Byrd, Mendez, RBY, Heilmann, and Nagao. Those losses (especially the one to Porter) could drop Foley lower but I think his win over Ragusin is enough to keep him at the 9.
141 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Real Woods, Iowa
- Beau Bartlett, Penn State
- Brock Hardy, Nebraska
- Danny Pucino, Illinois
- Frankie Tal-Shahar, Northwestern
- Jake Bergeland, Minnesota
- Joey Olivieri, Rutgers
- Parker Filius, Purdue
- Dylan D’Emilio, Ohio State
- Cole Mattin, Michigan
- Joe Zargo, Wisconsin
- Cayden Rooks, Indiana
- Jordan Hamdan, Michigan State
- Kal Miller, Maryland
Real Woods is the clear #1 seed at 141 with both Beau Bartlett and Brock Hardy having a case for #2. Their only Big 10 loss is against Real Woods but Bartlett is 19-1 on the season while Hardy is 24-4 with a recent loss to true freshman Emilio Ysaguirre. That result might not come into play in the coaches vote but it’s enough for me to give the edge to Bartlett.
Seeds 4-8 is where things get challenging. I chose to give Danny Pucino the #4 seed because of his wins over Tal-Shahar and Filius while only losing to Bergeland and Hardy. Tal-Shahar comes in at the #5 seed based on wins over D’Emilio, Olivieri, and Bergeland but losses to Pucino, Hardy, and Woods. Bergeland’s best Big 10 win is over Pucino but he lost to Filius and Tal-Shahar. Olivieri has wins over Mattin, Hamdan, and D’Emilio but lost to Bartlett and Tal-Shahar. Filius beat Bergeland and D’Emilio but lost to Hardy, Zargo, and Pucino. You can see how complicated this weight is but the above order rewards the best wins while taking into account each loss.
149 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Austin Gomez, Wisconsin
- Sammy Sasso, Ohio State
- Yahya Thomas, Northwestern
- Max Murin, Iowa
- Shayne Van Ness, Penn State
- Michael Blockhus, Minnesota
- Graham Rooks, Indiana
- Ethen Miller, Maryland
- Chance Lamer, Michigan
- Anthony White, Rutgers
- Dayne Morton, Nebraska
- Jake Harrier, Illinois
- Peyton Omania, Michigan State
- Jaden Reynolds, Purdue
Austin Gomez hasn’t wrestled since January 27 when he was injured during a match against Yahya Thomas. Because of that result, there’s a chance Gomez could fall to the #3 seed leaving Sasso the #1 and Thomas the #2. However, Gomez’s past wins over Sasso, including this year at the All-Star Classic, give him the edge in my seeding. After that, it’s pretty clear with Yahya defeating Max Murin, Murin defeating Shane Van Ness, and Van Ness with only losses to wrestlers seeded above him.
Seeds 6-11 could go a number of different ways. Though Blockhus lost to Dayne Morton, Blockhus also defeated Graham Rooks. Rooks has wins over Ethen Miller and Anthony White. White lost to Miller but defeated Dayne Morton.
Chance Lamer is the wildcard in that group. Lamer wrestled a limited Big 10 schedule with his only Big 10 win over Peyton Omania while losing to Austin Gomez and Max Murin. Lamer’s out-of-conference results could earn him a high seed but the coaches could also punish his lack of Big 10 results.
157 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Peyton Robb, Nebraska
- Levi Haines, Penn State
- Kendall Coleman, Purdue
- Chase Saldate, Michigan State
- Mike Carr, Illinois
- Cobe Siebrecht, Iowa
- Will Lewan, Michigan
- Trevor Chumbley, Northwestern
- Garrett Model, Wisconsin
- Brayton Lee, Minnesota
- Derek Gilcher, Indiana
- Paddy Gallagher, Ohio State
- Andrew Clark, Rutgers
- Michael North, Maryland
Peyton Robb and Levi Haines are both unbeaten in Big 10 competition and should come in at the #1 and #2 seeds respectively. After that, Kendall Coleman has put together a phenomenal season with Big 10 wins over Will Lewan, Trevor Chumbley, Brayton Lee, Derek Gilcher, and Michael North. Coleman did lose to Robb and Model but his wins should keep him at the #3 seed.
Similar to Coleman, Chase Saldate had only 2 losses to Big 10 opponents (losing to Robb and Gilcher), but had wins over Will Lewan, Brayton Lee, Andrew Clark, Paddy Gallagher, Derek Gilcher, and Terrell Barraclough. That resume should earn Saldate the #4 seed.
From there, Mike Carr has only wrestled 4 matches this year and is undefeated with a win over Cobe Siebrecht. Siebrecht and Lewan come in at the #6 and #7 - Siebrecht defeated Lewan head-to-head and neither have losses to anyone seeded below them.
Seeds 8-12 could be sorted out in a number of different ways. For the 8, I gave Chumbley the “nod” because of his wins over Lee, Model, and Gallagher. Model’s win over Coleman keeps him above Brayton Lee whose only Big 10 win this year is over Derek Gilcher. Gilcher closed his Big 10 season with 5 straight losses but does have a win over Paddy Gallagher giving him the edge in the above seeding.
165 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Cam Amine, Michigan
- Dean Hamiti Jr., Wisconsin
- Patrick Kennedy, Iowa
- Alex Facundo, Penn State
- Carson Kharchla, Ohio State
- Caleb Fish, Michigan State
- Maxx Mayfield, Northwestern
- Danny Braunagel, Illinois
- Andrew Sparks, Minnesota
- Bubba Wilson, Nebraska
- Nicholas South, Indiana
- Robert Kanniard, Rutgers
- John Martin Best, Maryland
- Cooper Noehre, Purdue
Any of the top 4 seeds have a claim to the #1 spot - Amine beat Hamiti, Hamiti beat Kennedy, Kennedy beat Facundo, and Facundo beat Amine. I gave Amine the top spot because of his wins over Hamiti and Kharchla. Beyond that, Amine is the most proven of the bunch as a two-time All-American.
Hamiti, also an All-American, has the win over Kennedy along with a win over Julian Ramirez. Coaches might look at his overall resume and give Hamiti the top spot. After that, the order falls in line with head-to-head results. If Amine and Hamiti take the top 2 spots, then Kennedy and Facundo will fall in line as the #3 and #4 seeds respectively.
There are two things that could keep Amine from getting the top seed. First, Amine has a loss on the year to Ohio State’s Bryce Hepner (who’s redshirting this season). While Hepner is solid, that loss is likely the “worst” of any of the top 4. Also, Amine wrestled a shortened Big 10 schedule because of an injury and missed potential matches against Patrick Kennedy, John Martin Best, and Nicholas South. Missing those matches, especially the match against Kennedy, might cause enough coaches to vote against Amine and for a wrestler who competed in a full schedule.
After the top 4, Kharchla is the clear #5 seed with losses to Amine and Facundo and wins over Mayfield, Fish, and Best. Caleb Fish and Maxx Mayfield both have an argument for the #6 seed. Both have wins over Braunagel and Sparks but Mayfield split with Braunagel so I gave Fish the #6 spot. The rest of the seeds fall in line with head-to-head results and should be fairly simple from 8-14.
174 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Carter Starocci, Penn State
- Mikey Labriola, Nebraska
- Ethan Smith, Ohio State
- Bailee O’Relly, Minnesota
- Edmond Ruth, Illinois
- Donnell Washington, Indiana
- Nelson Brands, Iowa
- Troy Fisher, Northwestern
- Max Maylor, Michigan
- Jackson Turley, Rutgers
- Caesar Garza, Michigan State
- Dom Solis, Maryland
- Josh Otto, Wisconsin
- Macartney Parkinson, Purdue
Unlike 165, the seeding at 174 should be fairly simple. Starocci and Labriola are undefeated with the rest of the order falling in line with head-to-head results. 174 is especially simple in that there are no “ranker’s delights” throughout the weight. That means there isn’t a group of 3 or 4 wrestlers who have traded wins and losses like there are at other weights.
184 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Aaron Brooks, Penn State
- Kaleb Romero, Ohio State
- Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota
- Matt Finesilver, Michigan
- Layne Malczewski, Michigan State
- Abe Assad, Iowa
- Lenny Pinto, Nebraska
- Brian Soldano, Rutgers
- Dylan Connell, Illinois
- Tyler Dow, Wisconsin
- Evan Bates, Northwestern
- Ben Vanadia, Purdue
- Clayton Fielden, Indiana
- Kevin Makosky, Maryland
Like at 174, the seeding at 184 shouldn’t be too complicated. Aaron Brooks and Kaleb Romero are the clear #1 and #2 seeds. Both Finesilver and Salazar have a claim for the #3 spot. I gave the edge to Salazar because he’s undefeated in Big 10 competition with wins over Pinto and Malczewski, however, Salazar never faced Romero or Brooks.
Assad is also a challenging wrestler to seed. He defeated Dylan Connell and Lenny Pinto but dropped a match to Tyler Dow. I believe that puts Assad at the #6 spot ahead of Pinto but behind Malczewski. Unlike Assad, Malczewski wrestled a full Big 10 schedule and hasn’t lost to anyone seeded below him. On top of that, Malczewski has wins over Soldano, Pinto, and Connell. After the top 6, seeds #7-#14 fall in line with head-to-head results and should play out as listed above.
197 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Max Dean, Penn State
- Silas Allred, Nebraska
- Zac Braunagel, Illinois
- Jacob Warner, Iowa
- Jaxon Smith, Maryland
- Gavin Hoffman, Ohio State
- Cam Caffey, Michigan State
- Braxton Amos, Wisconsin
- Michial Foy, Minnesota
- Nick Willham, Indiana
- Billy Janzer, Rutgers
- Andrew Davison, Northwestern
- Brendin Yatooma, Michigan
- Hayden Filipovich, Purdue
197 pounds - the weight of chaos all season long and it’s no different in Big 10 seeding! Max Dean is the reigning NCAA champion at 197 pounds and managed to go undefeated in Big 10 competition with wins over Hoffman, Warner, Caffey, and Amos. Dean is the clear #1 seed.
Seeds #2-#9 will be a nightmare to sort! In that group, only Jaxon Smith is undefeated against Big 10 competition, however, he missed matches against Gavin Hoffman, Cam Caffey, and Max Dean. The rest of those wrestlers have all traded wins and losses this year - check out the results of those seeded #2-9:
- Silas Allred - Wins over Hoffman, Braunagel, Amos, and Foy. Lost to Warner
- Zac Braunagel - Wins over Warner, Amos, and Foy. Lost to Smith, Allred, and Caffey
- Jacob Warner - Wins over Allred and Yatooma, Lost to Foy, Dean, and Braunagel
- Jaxon Smith - Wins over Braunagel and Willham
- Gavin Hoffman - Wins over Caffey and Janzer. Lost to Braunagel, Allred, and Dean
- Cam Caffey - Wins over Braunagel, Willham, Janzer, and Foy. Lost to Hoffman
- Braxton Amos - Wins over Foy, Davison, and Franklin. Lost to Dean, Allred and Braunagel
- Michial Foy - Wins over Warner, Willham, and Davison. Lost to Amos and Braunagel
285 Pounds
Projected Seeds:- Mason Parris, Michigan
- Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State
- Tony Cassioppi, Iowa
- Lucas Davison, Northwestern
- Trent Hillger, Wisconsin
- Boone McDermott, Rutgers
- Tate Orndorff, Ohio State
- Jaron Smith, Maryland
- Jacob Bullock, Indiana
- Hayden Copass, Purdue
- Cale Davidson, Nebraska
- Garrett Joles, Minnesota
- Ryan Vasbinder, Michigan State
- Matt Wroblewski, Illinois
The seeds at 285 should be pretty straightforward. Mason Parris has wins over Greg Kerkviet, Tony Cassioppi, Lucas Davison, and Trent Hillger this year. Kerkvliet beat Cassioppi, Cassioppi beat Davison, Davison beat Hillger, Hillger beat McDermott.
McDermott hasn’t wrestled Orndorff or Bullock this season, however, McDermott did defeat Jaron Smith. Orndorff, Smith, and Bullock have all traded wins and losses this year. Because of that, I gave McDermott the edge over Orndorff but the coaches could push McDermott lower because of his losses to Orndorff and Bullock last season.
Seeds #10-14 should fall in line with the above order based on head-to-head results this year.
Again, these are simply hypothetical seeds on how we THINK they will shake out. The real seeds will be decided by a vote from the Big 10 coaches. As always, we're open to hearing your feedback - I'd love to hear what you think the seeds should be at 165 - you can let me know by emailing me at jonathan.kozak@flosports.tv or sending me a dm on Twitter @KozakJon.
Flowrestling Big 10 Tourney Predictions
165 Pounds, 8 NQ Spots
Favorites#5 Cam Amine, Michigan
#6 DJ Hamiti, Wisconsin
#9 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa
#10 Alex Facundo, Penn State
#11 Carson Kharchla, Ohio State
It's one of the deepest weight classes in any conference. Five 165-pound wrestlers in the Big Ten are ranked in the top 11 nationally, and very starter in the conference also has eligibility left, so get used to seeing these names during the college season.
The top quartet are all involved in a ‘ranker’s delight’, as Amine beat Hamiti, Hamiti beat Kennedy, Kennedy beat Facundo, and Facundo beat Amine. So good luck sorting that out in the seeding meeting!
Those four, plus Kharchla, despite his losses to Amine and Facundo, are Big Ten title contenders. They’re also strong candidates to reach the NCAA podium, as Amine, Hamiti and Kharchla have all attained All-American status before, and Kennedy and Facundo both have at least one win over an All-American in their burgoening careers.
Contenders
#15 Maxx Mayfield, Northwestern
#18 Danny Braunagel, Illinois
#24 Caleb Fish, Michigan State
HM Andrew Sparks, Minnesota
HM Bubba Wilson, Nebraska
As if five top 11 wrestlers in the conference wasn’t gnarly enough, how about five more in the top 33? Mayfield and Braunagel have been the most consistent this year but Fish, Sparks and Wilson have been right there with them.
Braunagel has qualified for the NCAAs twice already, in 2020 and 2021. Mayfield has wins over just about everyone in the conference except the big five, though he did split matches with Braunagel this season. Fish and Wilson are 2022 national qualifiers, while Sparks qualified in 2021 during his monster true freshman season.
Sleepers and Landmines
It’s difficult finding sleepers in a conference with 10 ranked wrestlers but how about Nick South from Indiana? He’s 7-5 on the year against D1 competition including five wins over Big Ten rivals. He’s in his fourth season in Bloomington having started the previous two years as well.
Predictions: 1) Amine, 2) Hamiti, 3) Kharchla, 4) Facundo, 5) Kennedy, 6) Braunagel, 7) Mayfield, 8) Fish
With only eight auto-bids allocated to them (Amine and Kharchla did not have enough matches to get an RPI rating and thus could not earn bids for the conference), this is going to be an absolutely brutal bracket, with at least two ranked wrestlers guaranteed to be on the outside hoping for a wild card bid to NCAAs after the conference tournament.
174 Pounds - 7 NQ Spots
Favorites#1 Carter Starocci, Penn State
We go from a weight class with five contenders to a weight with one clear-cut favorite. Carter Starocci, the two-time defending NCAA champion and 2022 U23 world bronze medalist hasn’t dropped a match since the 2021 Big Ten Championship and isn't be expected to drop another for the rest of his collegiate career.
The biggest question mark for Starocci is whether or not he’ll take advantage of the extra year of eligibility he has available and try to become a five-time NCAA Champion. It goes without saying that such an accomplishment would be unprecedented.
Contenders
#2 Mikey Labriola, Nebraska
#5 Ethan Smith, Ohio State
#7 Bailee O’Reilly, Minnesota
#8 Edmond Ruth, Illinois
#9 Donnell Washington, Indiana
#11 Nelson Brands, Iowa
Like most Big Ten divisions, this one is also ridiculously loaded, as evidenced by six more wrestlers ranked in the top 11.
It’s difficult to imagine a #2 ranked wrestler, who is also a three-time All-American, being overlooked, but Mikey Labriola doesn’t get enough credit for the consistent winning he has done while in Lincoln. Only covid kept him from putting up 20+ wins for a fifth year in a row (he was 17-2 in the covid-shortened 2021 season). The Pennsylvania native from the Lehigh Valley is 24-0 this season which includes a win over former national champ Mekhi Lewis in the CKLV finals. While Starocci remains the heavy favorite to win the 2023 Big Ten Title, it would be foolish to think Labriola has no shot at an upset victory.
Smith, O’Reilly, Ruth and Washington are similarly preposterously slept on for being top 10 wrestlers. Smith is a four-time national qualifier and a 2021 All-American. O’Reilly doesn’t just have a name that reminds people of a famous song by the Who, he also wins a lot of wrestling matches, having qualified for the 2020 and 2022 NCAAs.
Though he’s been out of high school for four years, Ruth is at Illinois for his first year and has finally found his groove, winning 24 of 27 bouts this year. Having his older brother Ed on the Illinois coaching staff is no doubt a plus for younger brother Edmond.
DJ Washington still has sky high potential, having made a U20 world team and qualified for the past two NCAAs. This could be his breakout collegiate season as he’ll head to the tournament with his best record to date.
And it’s truly impossible to be overlooked in the wrestling world when your dad is living legend Terry Brands, but Nelson has done well carving a name out for himself, earning a starting spot on the 2021 Hawkeye team and winning a match at the NCAA tournament. Injuries derailed his 2022 season and gave him trouble this year but Brands capped off the season with an impressive 3-2 win over last year’s 6th placer Dustin Plott of Oklahoma State and looks to be in fine form heading into the postseason.
Sleepers and Landmines
#18 Troy Fisher, Northwestern
Max Maylor, Michigan
Jackson Turley, Rutgers
Ceasar Garza, Michigan State
Dominic Solis, Maryland
More insanity as we have to include a top 20 wrestler (Fisher) and an All-American (Turley) in the Sleepers and Landmines sections (that’s why we added ‘landmines’ to the title). Maylor, Garza and Solis are all capable of spoiling a nationally ranked wrestlers' weekend as well.
Predictions: 1) Starocci, 2) Labriola, 3) Smith, 4) Washington, 5) Brands, 6) Ruth 7) O’Reilly
There’s absolutely no margin for error in this weight class as the Big Ten was awarded a paltry seven qualifying spots. Fisher will have a solid shot at a wild card if he doesn’t get in but the unranked wrestlers will probably need to ‘steal’ a spot if they want to go dancing in March.
184 Pounds - 9 NQ Spots
Favorites#1 Aaron Brooks, Penn State
Brooks is in a similar position as his teammate Starocci is at 174, although Brooks looks slightly more mortal, having lost a match in both the 2022 and 2023 season. He’s also wrestled less total matches per season than Starocci.
When Brooks is on, however, there are few as dominant as him in the NCAA. Brooks is also a 2017 U17 world gold medalist and a 2018 U20 silver medalist, so he’s been winning at a high level domestically and internationally for a while now.
Brooks' lone loss this season was a 9-7 thriller to Marcus Coleman of Iowa State. Kaleb Romero of Ohio State also wrestled Brooks to a tough 3-2 decision. Still, when Brooks, a two-time NCAA champ, looks good, as he did against two-time 3rd-placer Parker Keckeisen at the NWCA All-Star Classic, he leaves little doubt that he will be the favorite to hoist a Big Ten title next weekend.
Contenders
#5 Kaleb Romero, Ohio State
#8 Mattew Finesilver, Michigan
#9 Abe Assad, Iowa
#10 Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota
#13 Layne Malczewski, Michigan State
#14 Lenny Pinto, Nebraska
#15 Brian Soldano, Rutgers
The aforementioned Romero, a 6th-placer last year and a three-time national qualifier, is a favorite to reach the finals opposite Brooks. Finesilver is a Duke transfer and one of four Finesilver brothers to qualify for the NCAA Championship (they are two sets of twin brothers).
Assad missed a few weeks of action in February but, like his teammate Nelson Brands, came back strong in the final bout of the year to defeat an All-American from Oklahoma State, in Assad’s case, Travis Wittlake.
Salazar and Malczewski have both qualified for the NCAAs before and have been quietly plugging away for their respective teams. Pinto is a redshirt freshman and Soldano is a true freshman and both are poised for a breakout season.
Sleepers and Landmines
Dylan Connell, Illinois
Tyler Dow, Wisconsin
With nine auto-bids, the Big Ten conference thankfully has a weight with more bids than top 20 wrestlers for a change. Look for either Dylan Connell or Tyler Dow to snag one of the remaining bids.
Predictions: 1) Brooks, 2) Romero, 3) Assad, 4) Salazar, 5) Fineslver, 6) Pinto, 7) Malczewski, 8) Soldano, 9) Connell
The most likely result is chalk for this bracket, however, that is only the most likely event out of nigh-infinite permutations, so look for something to go out of whack with regard to the seeds at some point in this tournament.
197 Pounds - 9 NQ Spots
Favorites#3 Max Dean, Penn State
It’s music to Nittany Lion faithful ears, though the rest of the conference may not be as thrilled to hear it, but Dean is the third consecutive returning national champ for Penn State and the third consecutive favorite to win a Big Ten title in the upperweight divisions.
Though Dean is ‘only’ ranked #3, due to his rare back-to-back losses this season to Ethan Laird of Rider and Michael Beard of Lehigh, those matches were in early December, and Dean has looked like his normal dominant self ever since.
Max still has concrete hands, deceptively funky defense, and a back-breaking bow-and-arrow bent-leg turn from top that will make you squirm in your seat as you watch. Thankfully for fans of opposing teams, Dean has exhausted his eligibility, and mercifully won’t be around to torture collegiate opponents next season.
Contenders
#10 Silas Allred, Nebraska
#11 Zac Braunagel, Illinois
#12 Jacob Warner, Iowa
#14 Gavin Hoffman, Ohio State
#15 Cam Caffey, Michigan State
#16 Braxton Amos, Wisconsin
#17 Michial Foy, Minnesota
#18 Jaxon Smith, Maryland
There is a decent amount of distance between Dean and the rest of the Big Ten field, despite 197 having been one of the wildest and most competitive divisions this season across the country.
Allred (a great name for one of the Cornhuskers aka Big Red) is having a breakout season in his first year on the varsity squad in Lincoln. Braunagel is in his fourth season as the starter in Champaign, though it's his first year at 197, having spent the previous three years at 184. Braunagel also qualified for the NCAAs the last three years and is looking to climb the All-American podium for the first time after falling one match shy last year.
Warner is having perhaps his most challenging season in Iowa City in his fifth year as the 197-pound Hawkeye starter. He’s already a three-time NCAA All-American, finishing 7th in 2019, 4th in 2021, and runner-up in 2022. Warner was the 5th seed in the canceled 2020 NCAAs. Though he’s certainly capable of another podium run, he’ll have to reverse some results he’s had this season to do so.
Gavin Hoffman had his best season ever last year, placing 6th in Detroit. He’ll have his work cut out for him to repeat in Tulsa, but the way 197 has played out this year, anything is possible.
Caffey, Amos, Foy and Smith are all bunched together with Hoffman, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if they finished at Big Tens in a completely different order than that in which they’re currently ranked. Nor would it be a surprise if they all finished in a different order 2 weeks later at NCAAs, either.
Sleepers and Landmines
Nick Willham, Indiana
Billy Janzer, Rutgers
Andrew Davison, Northwestern
Willham is having one of his best years in his fourth season in the Hoosier lineup. Janzer is a two-time national qualifier trying to find the success he had in 2019 as a redshirt freshman down at 184. And Davison transferred from Michigan to Northwestern last season, to join his younger brother’s team. Once in the Wildcat lineup he qualified for the 2022 NCAAs in his fifth year of college competition.
Predictions: 1) Dean, 2) Warner, 3) Allred, 4) Braunagel, 5) Caffey, 6) Hoffman, 7) Amos, 8) Foy, 9) Smith
With 9 qualifying spots, every nationally ranked wrestler will have an opportunity to wrestle to their seed and qualify for the NCAAs. With little margin for error, however, and with a weight class as wacky as 197 has been this season, don’t bet on the bracket being wrestled to chalk.
285 Pounds - 9 NQ Spots
Favorites#1 Mason Parris, Michigan
#2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State
#3 Tony Cassioppi, Iowa
#4 Lucas Davison, Northwestern
It doesn’t get much better than a bracket that could see the top four nationally-ranked wrestlers all make the semifinals. But that’s Big Ten wrestling for you.
Mason Parris exercised some demons with a 3-1 dual meet victory over Kerkvliet in a dual meet about a month ago. The Penn Stater had beaten the Michigan Man three times last season. That plus a win over Cassioppi in February gave Parris pole-position for the Big Ten title, and potentially the #1 seed at NCAAs.
But you can’t count out Kerkvliet nor Cassioppi, nor Davison for that matter. Between the three of the other B1G contenders are five All-American honors, and all three will be jockeying with Parris and the rest of the bracket for the best possible seed in Tulsa, as the national field still has the like of Cohlton Schultz, Wyatt Hendrickson and others that could wrestle their way into the finals on Saturday night of March 18.
Contenders
#10 Trent Hillger, Wisconsin
#13 Tate Orndorff, Ohio State
Unbelievably, the Big Ten still has two more top 15 wrestlers with All-American honors to add to the mix beyond those aforemention four contenders. Or maybe you’re starting to believe how stacked these brackets are, seeing as we’re all the way to heavyweight now.
Hillger is a four-time qualifier with an 8th and 6th NCAA place to his name, while Orndorff, a transfer from Utah Valley after the 2020 season, placed 8th in 2021 and qualified three other times. Both are capable of finding their way into the top four if they wrestle to the maximum of their capabilities.
Sleepers and Landmines
#20 Boone McDermott, Rutgers
HM Jaron Smith, Maryland
HM Jacob Bullock, Indiana
And we’re still not done with nationally ranked wrestlers, so once again please place these names in the ‘landmine’ bucket rather than categorize them as ‘sleepers’.
McDermott is battling his way back from an injury he suffered (or aggravated) at Midlands, but still managed to rack up several wins over wrestlers in the honorable mentions this season against just two non-injury default losses, both to All-Americans (Schultz and Hillger).
Smith was coaxed into coming back to wrestle in his eighth collegiate season and it may turn out to be his best yet. Bullock is also having his best season to date. Bullock was a true freshman starter for the lamentably shuttered Old Dominion program in 2020, and still has another year of eligibility to use.
Predictions: 1) Parris, 2) Kerkvliet, 3) Cassioppi, 4) Davison, 5) Orndorff, 6) Hillger, 7) McDermott, 8) Bullock, 9) Smith
Head-to-heads from this season paints a pretty clear picture for all the Rankers, and I haven’t deviated much from that order in these predictions. With 9 qualifying spots, everyone in the national rankings should punch tickets to Nationals, which is what I am also predicting.
So now that you’ve previewed all ten Big Ten weights, all you’ve got to do now is watch the actual wrestling this weekend. I’d say that sounds like a propitious plan to me!
Willie posted that evidently someone (NCAA or NWCA) screwed up as Teske wasn’t listed as an eligible candidate in the Coaches Rankings even though he met the minimum match criteria.
They are predicting Dean 1 and Warner 2. They are also predicting Dean to be the 1 seed and Warner to be the 4 seed. Wonder why people don’t take them seriously.
Kozak predicted the seeds and Spey is predicting the outcome but you would think they would talk to each other. 😂😂.
Willie answered a post on NN about the Teske situation. Iowa coaching staff didn’t submit him for a ranking because they didn’t realize he was qualified to be ranked. Thus the B1G has nine allocations at 133 instead of the ten deserved.
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125 Pounds
Favorite- #1 Spencer Lee, Iowa
Contenders
- #3 Liam Cronin, Nebraska
- #4 Matt Ramos, Purdue
Sleepers & Landmines
- #16 Dean Peterson, Rutgers
- #19 Jack Medley, Michigan
#19 Jack Medley had a slow start to the year but turned it on late with a win over #5 Eric Barnett and close losses to Peterson and #10 Malik Heinselman. #16 Dean Peterson has put together a very solid year winning the starting spot over Dylan Shawver and recording wins over a number of ranked wrestlers.
Predictions: 1) Spencer Lee, 2) Matt Ramos, 3) Liam Cronin, 4) Patrick McKee
125 Big Ten Allocations: 9
133 Pounds
Favorite- #1 Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State
Contenders
- #7 Jesse Mendez, Ohio State
- #10 Lucas Byrd, Illinois
- #11 Dylan Ragusin, Michigan
Dylan Ragusin should also be included in this “contender category”. While he lost to #7 Jesse Mendez and #20 RayVon Foley, Ragusin also gave #1 Roman Bravo-Young his toughest match of the year in a 4-2 loss. Ragusin has big move potential and his past wins over #10 Lucas Byrd and #12 Chris Cannon prove he’s one of the top 133-pound wrestlers in the Big 10.
Sleepers & Landmines
- #13 Brody Teske, Iowa
- #20 RayVon Foley, Michigan State
- #23 Taylor LaMont, Wisconsin
#20 RayVon Foley and #23 Taylor LaMont are both past All-Americans but have experienced their ups and downs this year. Both Lamont and Foley will likely be seeded outside the top 6 but if they’re wrestling their best, they could record some big upsets at Big 10s.
Predictions: 1) Roman Bravo-Young, 2) Jesse Mendez, 3) Dylan Ragusin, 4) Lucas Byrd
133 Big 10 Allocations: 9
141 Pounds
Favorite- #2 Real Woods, Iowa
Contenders
- #3 Beau Bartlett, Penn State
- #6 Brock Hardy, Nebraska
Sleepers & Landmines
- HM Joey Olivieri, Rutgers
- HM Cole Mattin, Michigan
Joey Olivieri was originally set to redshirt this year with Sammy Alvarez manning the starting spot for Rutgers at 141. However, after Alavarez transferred, Olivieri took over and recorded wins over the aforementioned Mattin and HM Dylan D’Emilio. Because he dropped a close match to #14 Frankie Tal-Shahar, Olivieri will likely be a low seed at Big 10s and a dangerous draw for any of the top-seeded wrestlers.
Predictions: 1) Real Woods, 2) Beau Bartlett, 3) Jake Bergeland, 4) Brock Hardy
Allocations: 9
149 Pounds
Favorites- #2 Austin Gomez, Wisconsin
- #3 Sammy Sasso, Ohio State
Contenders
- #4 Yahya Thomas, Northwestern
- #10 Max Murin, Iowa
Then there’s #10 Max Murin who is in search of his first All-American honors after finishing in the round of 12 three times. Murin has noteworthy wins in his college career over the likes of #4 Yahya Thomas, Ridge Lovett, and Mitch McKee. This year, Murin has wins over #11 Doug Zapf and #12 Shayne Van Ness with close losses to #2 Austin Gomez, #4 Yahya Thomas, and #9 Paniro Johnson.
Sleepers & Landmines
- #12 Shayne Van Ness, Penn State
- #20 Chance Lamer, Michigan
Chance Lamer is a different kind of wrestler and is included in this category because of his variance in match results throughout the year. For example - this year Lamer tech falled #13 Colin Realbuto but recently lost to #19 Johnny Lovett. Could Lamer pull a big upset? Sure! Could he go 0-2? Absolutely! Nothing should surprise with Chance Lamer at Big 10s and that makes him a really fun dark horse in this bracket.
Predictions: 1) Sammy Sasso, 2) Austin Gomez, 3) Yahya Thomas, 4) Shayne Van Ness
Allocations: 9
157 Pounds
Favorite- #1 Peyton Robb, Nebraska
Contenders
- #7 Kendall Coleman, Purdue
- #8 Levi Haines, Penn State
- #9 Mike Carr, Illinois
- #10 Chase Saldate, Michigan State
- #11 Cobe Siebrecht, Iowa
- #12 Will Lewan, Michigan
- Coleman - Wins over Derek Gilcher, Brayton Lee, Jarrett Jacques, #15 Trevor Chumbley, and #12 Will Lewan. Losses to #1 Peyton Robb, #17 Garrett Model, and #2 Jared Franek.
- Haines - Wins over #22 Derek Gilcher, #21 Paddy Gallagher, #11 Cobe Siebrecht, #12 Will Lewan, #17 Garrett Model. Loss to Vince Zerban.
- Carr - Win over #11 Cobe Siebrecht
- Saldate - Wins over #12 Will Lewan, #20 Derek Gilcher, #21 Paddy Gallagher, #16 Brayton Lee. Loss to #20 Derek Gilcher, #1 Peyton Robb, and Quincy Monday.
- Siebrecht - Wins over #12 Will Lewan, #16 Brayton Lee, #17 Garrett Model, #23 Anthony Artalona. Losses to #8 Levi Haines, #9 Mike Carr, and #13 Kaden Gfeller.
- Lewan - Wins over #13 Kaden Gfeller, #21 Paddy Gallagher, #20 Derek Gilcher, #17 Garrett Model. Losses to #7 Kendall Coleman, #11 Cobe Siebrecht, #8 Levi Haines, and #10 Chase Saldate.
- #16 Brayton Lee, Minnesota
- #20 Derek Gilcher, Indiana
- #21 Paddy Gallagher, Ohio State
Gilcher and Gallagher have each had flashes of really good wrestling this year. Gilcher has impressive wins over #10 Chase Saldate and #23 Anthony Artalona this year. Gallagher lost razor-thin matches to #1 Peyton Robb, #12 Will Lewan, and #12 Chase Saldate. Again, 157 is a weight primed for chaos and we shouldn’t be surprised if any of these wrestlers make a deep run at Big 10s.
Predictions: 1) Peyton Robb, 2) Levi Haines, 3) Will Lewan, 4) Cobe Siebrecht
Allocations: 10
Not quite.
Post in thread 'Conference Allocations Are Out!!' https://pennstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/conference-allocations-are-out.331572/post-6300511
I didn't read the above link that way.
Do we even know Morningstar is responsible for Iowa's input that supports the Coaches' Ranking?
Willie wrote Morningstar didn't think either Cullan or Brody were eligible for the Coaches' Ranking. But Willie also wrote Cullan was listed as Iowa's 133 for it.
The basis (e.g., someone told Morningstar, there is some system of NCAA records that Morningstar checked at some point from which he concluded, he, himself, misunderstood the criteria, he was basing his conclusion on faulty data understanding the criteria) for Morningstar's thinking was unstated.
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“I spoke to Morningstar almost immediately after allocations were released and told him Teske wasn't ranked and that Schriever was listed as the nominee. He said Schriever wasn't eligible for a ranking b/c he hadn't wrestled in 30 days and that he didn't think Teske was eligible either.”
- Schriever could only be listed as the nominee if Iowa submitted Schriever instead of Teske. Why would they do that? They didn’t think either was eligible.
“Just about every college coach I talked to said I should put the Iowa staff on blast for not doing what they needed to do.”
- Why would every other coach Willie talked to want the Iowa staff to be called out for “not doing what they needed to do” if the mistake wasn’t Iowa’s?
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Plus, the 30-day thing regarding Schriever is moot. At a record of 7-5 (at 133), he doesn’t qualify for an RPI and is way below the Winning Percentage threshold of 0.700. No matter how you cut it, he was not earning a pre-allocation bid.
Unlesss Iowa said, “We don’t think any of our 133s are eligible for a pre-allocation bid, so we’re not nominating anyone at that weight” — and the default response of the system was to make the roster guy with the most matches at the weight the official nominee — the only fathomable reasons for Schriever to be the nominee are that Iowa plans to wrestle him at B1Gs, or they were just being cute.
This is a peculiar situation.
He (Ryan), is not all of Iowa. He did not indicate he was speaking for all of Iowa's wrestling staff. That's all I'm saying.
No where does it say what Morningstar thought at some point in time directly affected what occurred with Iowa's ranking submittal. I believe it's reasonable that Morningstar was spitballing in a conversational style to an unannounced call.
I agree. Iowa (not the NCAA or NWCA) were responsible for the B1G not receiving an additional 133 allocation.
Someone theorized on the Intermat forum that Iowa simply didn't update there list for the coaches to rank. Cullan was ranked 24th initially when he was eligible and Brody was not. In between rankings their eligibility to be ranked changed.
not sure where you're getting 7-5. his record is 6-2. i had someone run the numbers. he 100% would have earned a pre allocation.
