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Predicting number of allocations for Big 10

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jmadden1998

HR All-American
Jan 26, 2017
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The final coaches ranking and RPI should be out this Thursday along with the number of pre-allocated spots for each conference at each weight. There are 3 criteria for a pre-allocated slot. Top 30 in RPI (15 match min) or coaches ranking (8 match min) and 70% or higher win %. If a wrestler meets at least 2 out of 3 they earn the conference a pre-allocated spot. This doesn’t mean that wrestler qualifies for Nationals. They must place high enough at the conference tourney to earn one of the allocated spots to qualify for Nationals. A wrestler must have 8 matches against D1 competition at the same weight to be eligible to earn a spot. Listed below are current rankings and win percentage. RPI, coaches and then win percentage with an estimate of how many spots each weight should earn an allocated spot. Wrestlers in Bold should be locks.



125 (9 spots)

Lee, Iowa, N/A, 1, 100%
Cronin, Nebraska, 1, 4, 85.71%
Heinselman, Ohio St, 2, 10, 82.61%
Ramos, Purdue, 3, 3, 88.89%
Medley, Michigan, 7, 17, 70.83%
Peterson, Rutgers, 12, 16, 70.83%
Barnett, Wisconsin, 13, 7, 75.00%
Brown, Maryland, 14, 15, 83.33%
McKee, Minnesota, N/A, 5, 71.43%
DeAugustino, Northwestern, N/A, 9, 45.45%
Moran, Indiana, 30, NR, 50.00%
Steen, Penn St, 33, NR, 33.33%
Lujan, Michigan St, NR, NR, 55.56%
Renteria, Illinois, NR, NR, 26.67%

Top 9 are locks. Other 5 no chance.

133 (8-11 spots)

Mendez, Ohio St, 4, 9, 81.25%
Bravo-Young, Penn St, N/A, 3, 100%
Byrd, Illinois, 5, 10, 88.00%
Nagao, Minnesota, 7, 15, 82.35%
Hellmann, Rutgers, 8, 14, 75.00%
Cannon, Northwestern, 10, 13, 71.43%
Ragusin, Michigan, 11, 11, 68.42%
Teske, Iowa, N/A, N/A, 75.00%
Foley, Michigan St, 25, 16, 61.11%
Porter, Indiana, 20, 30, 68.42%
LaMont, Wisconsin, 23, 26, 42.86%
Burwick, Nebraska, NR, 32, 50.00%
Norris, Purdue, NR, NR, 43.48%
Sandoval, Maryland, NR, NR, 20.00%

Teske should be ranked in final coaches poll now that he has 8 matches so gonna mark him as a lock. Foley, Porter and LaMont are all on the bubble. Need rankings to stay in top 30.

141 (8-9 spots)

Woods, Iowa, N/A, 2, 100%
Hardy, Nebraska, 1, 4, 85.71%
Bartlett, Penn St, 3, 4, 94.74%
Filius, Purdue, 15, 17, 68.18%
Olivieri, Rutgers, 16, 20, 73.33%
Bergeland, Minnesota, 19, 14, 63.16%
Mattin, Michigan, 21, 24, 66.67%
Pucino, Illinois, 24, 21, 65.00%
D’Emilio, Ohio St, 26, 18, 57.14%
Tal-Shahar, Northwestern, N/A, 11, 69.23%
Zargo, Wisconsin, NR, NR, 47.37%
Miller, Maryland, NR, NR, 46.15%
Hamdan, Michigan St, NR, NR, 60.71%
Rooks, Indiana, NR, NR, 52.94%

Top 6 are locks. Should get at least 2 of 3 from Mattin, Pucino and D’Emilio. Could get all 3.

149 (9 spots)

Thomas, Northwestern, 1, 4, 90.48%
Sasso, Ohio St, 2, 2, 91.30%
Gomez, Wisconsin, N/A, 1, 83.33%
Van Ness, Penn St, 5, 13, 78.95%
Murin, Iowa, 12, 8, 83.33%
Rooks, Indiana, 14, 25, 72.73%
Lamer, Michigan, 17, 17, 66.67%
Blockhus, Minnesota, 18, 16, 77.78%
Miller, Maryland, 20, 20, 80.65%
White, Rutgers, 28, NR, 54.55%
Morton, Nebraska, NR, NR, 29.41%
Omania, Michigan St, NR, NR, 50.00%
Harrier, Illinois, NE, NR, 23.53%
Willis, Purdue, NR, NR, 31.25%

Pretty cut and dry. Top 9 are locks and bottom 5 have no chance.

157 (10-12 spots)

Robb, Nebraska, 1, 1, 100%
Haines, Penn St, 4, 7, 94.44%
Coleman, Purdue, 6, 5, 88.89%
Siebrecht, Iowa, N/A, 10, 71.43%
Lewan, Michigan, 9, 8, 75.00%
Chumbley, Northwestern, 10, 13, 79.17%
Model, Wisconsin, 11, 16, 66.67%
Gallagher, Ohio St, 15, 21, 62.50%
Gilcher, Indiana, 17, 18, 64.29%
Saldate, Michigan St, 19, 12, 83.33%
Lee, Minnesota, N/A, 17, 30.00%
Clark, Rutgers, 26, 24, 51.85%
North, Maryland, 33, 31, 68.18%
Carr, Illinois, N/A, N/A, 100%

10 are locked in. Clark and North are in the bubble. Carr only has 4 matches so not possible to earn an allocation.

165 (8-10 spots)

Hamiti, 2, 5, 85.71%
Facundo, Penn St, 4, 10, 88.24%
Kennedy, Iowa, 7, 8, 88.24%
Kharchla, Ohio St, N/A, 13, 75.00%
Braunagel, Illinois, 14, 19, 66.67%
Amine, Michigan, N/A, 6, 83.33%
Mayfield, Northwestern, 20, 20, 69.23%
Fish, Michigan St, 22, 25, 77.78%
Sparks, Minnesota, 24, 29, 61.11%
Wilson, Nebraska, 30, 30, 54.55%
South Indiana, NR, NR, 63.64%
Noehre, Purdue, NR, NR, 36.84%
Kanniard, Rutgers, NR, NR, 50.00%
Martin Best, Maryland, NR, NR, 31.58%

Top 8 are locks. Sparks and Wilson on the bubble.

174 (7 spots)

Labriola, Nebraska, 1, 4, 100%
Starocci, Penn St, 4, 1, 100%
Ruth, Illinois, 5, 10, 88.00%
Smith, Ohio St, 6, 5, 75.00%
O’Reilly, Minnesota, 7, 11, 83.33%
Washington, Indiana, 11, 14, 85.00%
Fisher, Northwestern, 14, 15, 76.47%
Brands, Iowa, N/A, 20, 60.00%
Maylor, Michigan, 17, NR, 65.00%
Otto, Wisconsin, NR, NR, 30.00%
Garza, Michigan St, NR, NR, 50.00%
Turley, Rutgers, NE, NR, 41.18%
Solis, Maryland, NR, NR, 45.45%
Parkinson, Purdue, NR, NR, 42.11%

Weakest weight in the conference. 7 locks and that’s it.

184 (8-9 spots)

Brooks, Penn St, N/A, 1, 90.00%
Salazar, Minnesota, N/A, 9, 92.31%
Romero, Ohio St, 4, 5, 81.82%
Finesilver, Michigan, 5, 8, 79.17%
Assad, Iowa, 10, 11, 88.24%
Malczewski, Michigan St, 12, 13, 85.00%
Pinto, Nebraska, 15, 15, 70.83%
Soldano, Rutgers, 16, 14, 75.00%
Connell, Illinois, 24, 21, 51.72%
Bates, Northwestern, NR, NR, 48.28%
Dow, Wisconsin, NR, NR, 38.89%
Vanadia, Purdue, NR, NR, 44.00%
Fielden, Indiana, NR, NR, 14.29%
Makosy, Rutgers, NR, NR, 25.00%

Top 8 are a lock. Connell on the bubble.

197 (8-10 spots)

Dean, Penn St, 3, 3, 89.47%
Braunagel, Illinois, 7, 11, 76.19%
Allred, Nebraska, 8, 8, 80.00%
Amos, Wisconsin, 10, 14, 76.19%
Smith, Maryland, 11, 17, 76.19%
Hoffman, Ohio St, 15, 18, 72.22%
Warner, Iowa, 20, 9, 75.00%
Caffey, Michigan St, 22, 12, 81.25%
Foy, Minnesota, 28, 22, 65.00%
Davison, Northwestern, 28, 29, 59.26%
Willham, Indiana, NR, NR, 63.16%
Janzer, Rutgers, NE, NR, 33.33%
Filipovich, Purdue, NR, NR, 20.83%
Yatooma, Michigan, NR, NR, 25.00%

Top 8 are locks. Foy and Davison on the bubble.

285 (8-10 spots)

Parris, Michigan, 1, 1, 100%
Kerkvliet, Penn St, N/A, 4, 92.31%
Davison, Northwestern, 8, 3, 90.00%
Hillger, Wisconsin, 9, 10, 68.42%
Cassioppi, 10, 2, 88.89%
Bullock, Indiana, 12, 25, 80.00%
McDermott, Rutgers, 17, 22, 81.25%
Orndorff, Ohio St, 20, 17, 66.67%
Smith, Maryland, 21, 26, 61.90%
Joles, Minnesota, 33, 32, 50.00%
Davidson, Nebraska, NR, NR, 34.78%
Vasbinder, NR, NR, 52.00%
Copass, Purdue, NR, NR, 41.67%
Wroblewski, Illinois, NR, NR, 42.31%

Top 8 should be locks. Smith and Joles close.
 
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Good stuff - Thursday will be interesting.

Generally, how many "unallocated" spots are reserved for wildcards at each weight?

Thanks
 
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loonhawk said:
Good stuff - Thursday will be interesting.

Generally, how many "unallocated" spots are reserved for wildcards at each weight?

Thanks
Click to expand...
The most allocations per weight is 29. They will leave at least 4 spots for at large. Some weights won’t have 29 pre-allocations so you will see a few more “at large” available at those weights.
 
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So as it stands, it looks like Nelson will need to "steal" an allocation by placing top 7 at B1Gs to qualify. Other note is that if this all holds up, then 174 would be the only weight at B1Gs to not wrestle a mini-tournament for 9th place

Thanks for putting this together!
 
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sstark46 said:
So as it stands, it looks like Nelson will need to "steal" an allocation by placing top 7 at B1Gs to qualify. Other note is that if this all holds up, then 174 would be the only weight at B1Gs to not wrestle a mini-tournament for 9th place

Thanks for putting this together!
Click to expand...
That is correct. We should be fairly comfortable qualifying all 10 but Nelson has the toughest task since 174 will have the fewest spots available. However, he would still have a chance at a wild card but don’t want to leave it to that.
 
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Inthecircle said:
Nice work! Who wants to take a stab at seeding? Mainly our guys.
Click to expand...
Not even going to begin to figure out the seeding for all. My stab at Iowa for B10s:
125- #1
133- #7? (would be ok with the 6 or 7 here, not the 8 though)
141- #1
149- #4 (does Gomez get the 1 and is he even wrestling?)
157- #6
165- #3 (does Amine get the 2 and Hamiti the 1, which means Facundo/Hamiti would be the 1vs4)
174- #7
184- #4/#5? (how banged up is Brooks as he hasn't wrestled the last couple weeks)
197- #3/#4 (hopefully the 3)
285- #3

That is my best guess for Iowa.
 
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blcoach80 said:
Not even going to begin to figure out the seeding for all. My stab at Iowa for B10s:
125- #1
133- #7? (would be ok with the 6 or 7 here, not the 8 though)
141- #1
149- #4 (does Gomez get the 1 and is he even wrestling?)
157- #6
165- #3 (does Amine get the 2 and Hamiti the 1, which means Facundo/Hamiti would be the 1vs4)
174- #7
184- #4/#5? (how banged up is Brooks as he hasn't wrestled the last couple weeks)
197- #3/#4 (hopefully the 3)
285- #3

That is my best guess for Iowa.
Click to expand...
I don’t think Teske is the 7. He has 2 losses on the year to #1 and #2. So 1 loss in conference. I know he missed duals, but Ragusin didn’t wrestle against him. Will probably be the 4 seed if I had to guess which is worse than 7 ironically.

Edit to add: Teske is 5-1 in big tens. He did miss Byrd and Cannon (his only 2 missed big ten matches) and Ragusin didn’t wrestle against him. But no way he’s the 7 with that record.
 
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UndercoverHawk said:
I don’t think Teske is the 7. He has 2 losses on the year to #1 and #2. So 1 loss in conference. I know he missed duals, but Ragusin didn’t wrestle against him. Will probably be the 4 seed if I had to guess which is worse than 7 ironically.

Edit to add: Teske is 5-1 in big tens. He did miss Byrd and Cannon (his only 2 missed big ten matches) and Ragusin didn’t wrestle against him. But no way he’s the 7 with that record.
Click to expand...
I agree with you, but would much prefer he was the 6 or 7. I think he can make the semis for sure and possibly the finals as the 6/7. No finals as the 4/5.
 
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UndercoverHawk said:
I don’t think Teske is the 7. He has 2 losses on the year to #1 and #2. So 1 loss in conference. I know he missed duals, but Ragusin didn’t wrestle against him. Will probably be the 4 seed if I had to guess which is worse than 7 ironically.

Edit to add: Teske is 5-1 in big tens. He did miss Byrd and Cannon (his only 2 missed big ten matches) and Ragusin didn’t wrestle against him. But no way he’s the 7 with that record.
Click to expand...
Top three should be:
1. RBY (duh)
2-3. Byrd/Mendez (did not face one another. Byrd is 8-0 in B1G, #9 Intermat. Mendez is 7-1 with a loss to RBY, #8 Intermat)

After that it's tight for 4 - 8:

Teske (5-1 B1G, #18)
Combined B1G record of defeated opponents: 6-21 (.222)
Key wins: LaMont
Losses: RBY

Cannon (6-2 B1G, #12)
Def. opp. record: 13-23 (.361)
Key wins: Heilmann, Nagao
Losses: Mendez, Byrd

Nagao (3-1 B1G, #13)
Def. opp. record: 4-18 (.182)
Key wins: LaMont, Foley
Losses: Cannon

Heilmann (5-3 B1G, #15)
Def. opp. record: 6-16 (.273)
Key wins: Foley, Porter
Losses: Mendez, Ragusin, Cannon

Ragusin (4-3 B1G, #11)
Def. opp. record: 10-18 (.357)
Key wins: LaMont, Porter, Heilmann
Losses: RBY, Mendez, Foley

Porter, Foley, and LaMont are all nationally ranked but clearly behind this group, especially in terms of H2H.

Given that no one in this group of five has a bad conference loss (with the possible exception of Ragusin, to Foley), I wonder if more weight will be given to each wrestler's significant wins. If this is the case, Ragusin and Cannon have the best cases for the 4th and 5th seeds (in some order; might give the edge to Cannon). After that, I would slot in Teske at 6, Nagao at 7 and Heilmann at 8, though I could see switching Nagao and Heilmann.
 
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blcoach80 said:
Not even going to begin to figure out the seeding for all. My stab at Iowa for B10s:
125- #1
133- #7? (would be ok with the 6 or 7 here, not the 8 though)
141- #1
149- #4 (does Gomez get the 1 and is he even wrestling?)
157- #6
165- #3 (does Amine get the 2 and Hamiti the 1, which means Facundo/Hamiti would be the 1vs4)
174- #7
184- #4/#5? (how banged up is Brooks as he hasn't wrestled the last couple weeks)
197- #3/#4 (hopefully the 3)
285- #3

That is my best guess for Iowa.
Click to expand...
At 3-3, I think JW will most likely be the 6.
 
Hawkeye4lifee said:
All I hope is Kennedy gets the 2 or 3. His path becomes alot more difficult if he gets the 4 and has to face kharchla in the quarters
Click to expand...
No way he gets below 3. Only conference loss to Hamiti. He beat Facundo and Facundo sat out against Hamiti. Amine beat Hamiti and lost to Facundo. Amine sat out against Kennedy. Should be Hamiti 1, Kennedy 2, Facundo 3 and Amine 4. Have to reward the guys who faced everyone when it’s this close.
 
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jmadden1998 said:
No way he gets below 3. Only conference loss to Hamiti. He beat Facundo and Facundo sat out against Hamiti. Amine beat Hamiti and lost to Facundo. Amine sat out against Kennedy. Should be Hamiti 1, Kennedy 2, Facundo 3 and Amine 4. Have to reward the guys who faced everyone when it’s this close.
Click to expand...
Boy I sure hope so. Then again, your theory makes perfect sense.
 
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blcoach80 said:
Warner's seed really isn't that huge. He can beat everyone ahead of him as the 7 and could lose to the 3-8 seed as the two. This weight is a crapshoot between the top 12 seeds at NCAAs imo. No clear front runner. (Beard has been impressive imo though)
Click to expand...
I agree with you completely. Going in as the 3 or the 6 makes no real difference. It will still be same guys.
 
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Coaches Rank

Lee #1
Teske NR
Woods #2
Murin #8
Siebrecht #12
Kennedy #8
Brands #15
Assad #10
Warner #11
Cass #3
 
jmadden1998 said:
Not sure how Teske didn’t get ranked in last coaches poll. Has the 8 matches needed. Only two losses are to RBY #1 and Fix #2. Beat LaMont and Burwick who are both ranked.
Click to expand...
How did the Big Ten not get 10 allocations at 133?

Mendez, Ohio St, 3, 8, 81.25%
Bravo-Young, Penn St, N/A, 1, 100%
Byrd, Illinois, 5, 10, 88.00%
Nagao, Minnesota, 6, 13, 82.35%
Heilmann, Rutgers, 10, 14, 75.00%
Cannon, Northwestern, 8, 12, 71.43%
Ragusin, Michigan, 9, 11, 68.42%
Teske, Iowa, N/A, N/A, 75.00%
Foley, Michigan St, 30, 19, 61.11%
Porter, Indiana, 22, 26, 68.42%
LaMont, Wisconsin, 20, 28, 42.86%
Burwick, Nebraska, NR, 32, 50.00%
Norris, Purdue, NR, NR, 43.48%
Sandoval, Maryland, NR, NR, 20.00%
 
Impossible Is Nothing said:
How did the Big Ten not get 10 allocations at 133?

Mendez, Ohio St, 3, 8, 81.25%
Bravo-Young, Penn St, N/A, 1, 100%
Byrd, Illinois, 5, 10, 88.00%
Nagao, Minnesota, 6, 13, 82.35%
Heilmann, Rutgers, 10, 14, 75.00%
Cannon, Northwestern, 8, 12, 71.43%
Ragusin, Michigan, 9, 11, 68.42%
Teske, Iowa, N/A, N/A, 75.00%
Foley, Michigan St, 30, 19, 61.11%
Porter, Indiana, 22, 26, 68.42%
LaMont, Wisconsin, 20, 28, 42.86%
Burwick, Nebraska, NR, 32, 50.00%
Norris, Purdue, NR, NR, 43.48%
Sandoval, Maryland, NR, NR, 20.00%
Click to expand...
There is a sliding scale they use. Must have had to slide up to top 29 for RPI so that dropped Foley. They won’t allocate more than 29 slots per weight and every conference has to get at least one even if they don’t have the credentials. Just checked. They only allocated 28 spots at 133 so Foley didn’t earn one.
 
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149- Pac 12 earning 1 does not make sense. Both Parco and Abas are gold standard. Both top 12 in both polls and both 84% winning. Both just wrestled this past weekend as well.
 
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jmadden1998 said:
There is a sliding scale they use. Must have had to slide up to top 29 for RPI so that dropped Foley. They won’t allocate more than 29 slots per weight and every conference has to get at least one even if they don’t have the credentials. Just checked. They only allocated 28 spots at 133 so Foley didn’t earn one.
Click to expand...
Cut line at 133 was 28
 
Here's the full updated allocation table from the NCAA:

CONFERENCE125133141149157165174184197285TOTAL
Atlantic Coast Conference234333354333
Big 12 Conference657778646864
Big Ten Conference9999108799988
Eastern Intercollegiate Wrestling Association655235445645
Mid-American Conference212541421123
Pacific-12 Conference331212213119
Southern Conference121111211112
Pre-Allocations29282929292828262929284
At-Large454445574446
 
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Damn good work by the OP! His numbers were pretty much dead on balls accurate as they say!!!

Hmmm, makes me wonder exactly who he is??? He may be like Batman only in a Wrestling singlet!
 
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jmadden1998 said:
Not sure how Teske didn’t get ranked in last coaches poll. Has the 8 matches needed. Only two losses are to RBY #1 and Fix #2. Beat LaMont and Burwick who are both ranked.
Click to expand...
according to nomad on twitter (who is very good at predicting these things) the coaches didn’t enter anybody at 133. how does that happen?
 
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js8793 said:
according to nomad on twitter (who is very good at predicting these things) the coaches didn’t enter anybody at 133. how does that happen?
Click to expand...
Mistake by the coaches, or a sign that Schriever is the guy this postseason? Let the rumors begin!
 
Also I see (via Nomad) that Cobe did not earn an allocation, so he will also have to "steal" one at B1Gs
 
sstark46 said:
Also I see (via Nomad) that Cobe did not earn an allocation, so he will also have to "steal" one at B1Gs
Click to expand...
highly ranked by the coaches but 1 match short of 15 for rpi and win % below 75. a little dicey if he doesn’t qualify but i think he’d get a wildcard
 
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sstark46 said:
Also I see (via Nomad) that Cobe did not earn an allocation, so he will also have to "steal" one at B1Gs
Click to expand...
Losing to Gfeller dropped his win % to 69%. If he would have won or even not have wrestled, he would have met silver criteria and almost certainly picked up an allocation.
 
Teske is a interesting one 6-2 75% but not in the coaches poll and Lamont is . I wonder if coaches forgot him like they did RBY last week
 
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