Presidential betting odds

[seminole97]

Considering betfair, has Trump winning Pennsylvania, which appears to be trending to Kamala, you have to question the data.

 

[bunsen82]

Cool conspiracy theory. Look, man, I really don't care. Believe what you want if it makes you feel better about things.

Conspiracy theory? You don’t think it’s factual? I know polls and betting markets have been inaccurate, I also know republicans have underperformed the last 2 elections. I think it’s close. Will wait for Election Day.

 

[GOHOX69]

Explain the record Georgia turnout. You think they are Trump voters? Mostly minorities.

 

[BioHawk]

I won't deny there is some funky things going on. Right wing pollsters flooding polls making it lean towards republican favoring, the other is even a few centrist or left leaning polling has gotten tighter, but I have been told that this year they are encouraging republicans to respond to the pollsters. That could sway it some. The betting markets being manipulated. If I could put money in both IEM and polymarkets, could make some money by the market inefficiency. Accrue as many Trump shares on IEM as possible (selling Kamala shares high, holding the trump shares and buying more low). Then accumulating Harris shares on polymarket. I remember making a couple hundred dollars on IEM back in the early 2000's.

It ultimately comes down to the votes and not all this noise.

I don't doubt for a second they have told people to answer the pollsters. They need to get Republicans to answer the various push polls they are conducting. That actually makes sense with the strategy.

 

[mnole03]

Here is what we know. Bettors are largely dipshits. That is why Vegas makes money.

Bettors are emotional.

 

[seminole97]

 

[HawkMachine]

Ok don’t shoot the messenger.

I was just flipping through the channels, don’t have cable so there’s not many. SCRIPPS NEWS? No clue but it honestly seemed pretty neutral.

It was a news station who had a professor from Northwestern on it . Ironically they were talking about the betting odds.

He mentioned the betting odds historically have been more accurate than the polls.

He was also predicting a Trump victory.

I can’t remember the exact numbers but he had Trump with 300-some electoral votes.

 

[pepsicock]

IIRC, Trump was also the betting favorite against Biden. And I think it remained that way until Arizona flipped on election night.

What happened to all those 80 million votes? 😂

 

[RicoSuave102954]

Polls show it's close, but she doesn't need many of them to win, and IMO she's got them.

She doesn't and she is losing ground.

 

[seminole97]

Explain the record Georgia turnout. You think they are Trump voters? Mostly minorities.

I'm still wondering, where do people get the racial data for voters?
I guess it's collected at registration.
FL doesn't do this, so I'm unfamiliar with the practice, can a GA resident comment?

Anyway, here's what I've seen about first day voting in GA, it wasn't mostly minorities, and the black share is lower than previous elections.



This fella is posting his data to his Google drive if you want to see it.

 

[GOHOX69]

I'm still wondering, where do people get the racial data for voters?
I guess it's collected at registration.
FL doesn't do this, so I'm unfamiliar with the practice, can a GA resident comment?

Anyway, here's what I've seen about first day voting in GA, it wasn't mostly minorities, and the black share is lower than previous elections.

View embedded media

This fella is posting his data to his Google drive if you want to see it.

Trump will lose in a landslide.

 

[pjhawk]

From an A+ poll. This is great news for Harris if true, maybe surging? NYTimes Pitchbot voice: Peaking too soon?