Reasons for Optimism

[GT Hawkaholic]

I know there's a lot of doubt in the program and a perceived lack of talent but I think the window dressing players have skewed the actual picture again. Similar to last year when we saw Carl Davis and Brandon Scherff back as reasons we could make a run, it's easy to get caught up in the over importance of one player, especially on the line.

We were breaking in other new DL players and linebackers as well as a new FS and corner. Consequently, the defense was pretty bad at 26 PPG. We don't have good teams at Iowa giving up that many PPG. Let's take a closer look at the real picture vs. last year.

QB - slight upgrade/unknown - Overall sample size is small but I think we all agree C.J. has much more talent and potential in his arm than Rudock. On a team with a lack of dynamic threats, sometimes you have to throw guys open and take some shots. He might make more mistakes, but the defense will have to be honest and this will open up the run game.

RB - Upgrade - Having an injured Canzeri killed us last year. He looked great at the end of the year and by all account Daniels looks like a different back. I think we have a very talented two-headed attacked with decent depth behind it. In addition to linebacker ability, the run game success is at the top of the list in determining how good Iowa will be most years.

TE - Push - We need Duzey to get back healthy but HKK, Duzey and Kittle all have good potential.

WR - Push (We have a playmaker in Tevaun Smith and Vandeburg has shown flashes. We do need to have one of the incoming or unknown guys step up big.

OL - Downgrade - Losing two NFL tackles will hurt but if there's one thing Kirk has shown he can do, it's develop talent at that spot. I wouldn't be too worried about what you saw in Spring ball. The defense knows what the offense is doing and Ott/Meier have multiple years of experience on the two OT's. I also think showing a zone read more often with C.J. will help freeze the defense and open up a few more holes for our backs and take some pressure off of the OL.

DL - Push/sligh upgrade - Yes, we lost Carl Davis but it wasn't as if he was a one man wrecking crew last year. At the same time; Faith, Jaleel and Nate were all getting their first full season of experience as starters or key players. We have a stud DE returning for his Senior year in Drew Ott, along with the three guys I jsut mentioned, the hopeful return of Darian Cooper and the potential emergence of Bazata and Nelson. We will be better as a whole here.

Linebackers - Big Upgrade - I circle this as the number one area of improvement. Jewell and Bower have the talent, they were just thrust into duty a year before they were ready. In the long run, this is going to pay big dividends. Remember the year after we had won the Orange Bowl and everyone had ridiculous expectations? The ONE area we lacked in was linebackers and it killed us. Those guys ended up being a pretty good trio down the road didn't they. I really like what Niemann has to offer, he is smart and in the right place. He made a significant impact on special teams last year. The depth is a bit of an unknown so that's something to be wary of.

Secondary - Upgrade - Last year Lomax was transitioning to FS and Mabin was a first year starter at Corner. This year? We return 3 starters who are upperclassmen and lose only Lowdermilk. There were obviously mixed feelings on him but mine are that he's most certainly replaceable right away. Whoever wins the battle between Snyder and Taylor will be
at the very least serviceable. I wouldn't be shocked to see Snyder win that spot.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 9 wins this season +/- 1

 

[alfordmath2]

Good post... Iowa needs to win the close games, seems like every year, that is what dictates the record. Unfortunately it's doesn't take much to lose those close games. I do agree they will be a better team next year though.

 

[GarryO37]

Good post... Iowa needs to win the close games, seems like every year, that is what dictates the record. Unfortunately it's doesn't take much to lose those close games. I do agree they will be a better team next year though.

Iowa should also not be in close games with teams like ISU or Ball State. If Iowa handles those teams like they should, then fans can handle losing close games.

Games like ISU and Ball State have been happening long enough. It happens so often now that I no longer believe Iowa is playing down to their opponent. I'm beginning to believe teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are playing down to Iowa.

If Iowa starts to blow out these poor teams, then I will believe we have taken a step forward. Until then, I will not believe Iowa is headed in the right direction.

 

[mrdr89]

I think the defense has a great chance to be improved this year, especially at the LB position. I think the offense will go as the OL goes. If they can gel as a unit i think we will see an offense that will be able to hold its own. If CJB is running for his life and RBs are getting hit at the line of scrimmage for most of the year I think that could lead to some losses to teams that we shouldn't be losing to.

Also at QB we have 0 depth there. The way the CJB plays i don't think it is out of the question to say that he could be injured for a couple games this year. Hopefully the #2 will be ready to step up (losing Rudock is going to hurt us this year).

I don't think 8-4 is out of the question

 

[nu2u]

I mostly agree with your assessments.

Defense: about a month ago I speculated that this year's defense could be formidable and that comment was mocked without any counter-argument on the merits. The secondary could be excellent if the player winning the SS position plays well. Cornerback is a strength 2-deep. I don't see a big drop at DL with Johnson assuming one of the DL spots and returning starters at DE. Due to position changes and inexperience (Niemann), a question mark remains at LB, though, and improvement at these positions will be critical as the season progresses.

Offense: Here the main story is the OL, especially OT, and primarily pass protection. I have faith that Ferentz will have this unit improving as the season progresses even though there will be some maddening growing pains. After 3 years as a reserve, CJ Beathard takes the reigns - an upgrade in talent; bigger arm, better runner. I still believe that VandeBerg will emerge as a dependable WR and (50+ recpts / 7-8 TDs) to accompany Smith who is due for a major breakout season. Not worried about RB - Canzeri, Daniels, and Wadley are all capable IMO.
Health is a big concern for just about every starter position, the biggest concern obviously being QB.

The gloom you read on this board is a result of hostility towards Ferentz and Davis and that clouds just about everything these days. The only way to change that is to win games.

 

[bouma1415]

OL - Downgrade - Losing two NFL tackles will hurt but if there's one thing Kirk has shown he can do, it's develop talent at that spot. I wouldn't be too worried about what you saw in Spring ball. The defense knows what the offense is doing and Ott/Meier have multiple years of experience on the two OT's. I also think showing a zone read more often with C.J. will help freeze the defense and open up a few more holes for our backs and take some pressure off of the OL.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 9 wins this season +/- 1

So you are saying that opposing coaches who have seen KF coach for the last 10 years don't know what Iowa is going to run on offense>>>>I think you know the answer to this question.

 

[GT Hawkaholic]

So you are saying that opposing coaches who have seen KF coach for the last 10 years don't know what Iowa is going to run on offense>>>>I think you know the answer to this question.

I can tell you that most NFL teams know exactly what the other teams are running. It's about your players beating their players. It's football, not chess. As much as you hate the execution argument it really is true.

It just so happens that most years we haven't had the WR's or QB's to make other teams pay for over-selling to our tendencies. That is why every single time we've been a good to great team we have an accompanying good to great defense.

We shall see I guess. I'm just saying that these spring practices are super vanilla and the defense usually gets a jump because they practice the same sets every day against the same guys.

 

[ISUhawk]

Yep, I agree with a lot of this but am worried about wide receiver position. Hoping Jay Scheel can gives us a little different talent out there. He was highly recruited as an overall athlete who played quarterback in high school. Hopefully he can take that talent and help us at receiver. One other thing that I think could be a positive this year and that is getting Adam Cox back at fullback along with a healthier Plewa. I thought both those guys had some big moments for us two years ago and I felt we missed them in both our running game and in our pass protection. Not a panacea, but they are good tough team players that help us set "the tone".

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

9 wins is the ceiling because of the talent level and the manner in which Iowa plays game-to-game, regardless of opponent. Iowa will find a way to lose at least 3 games, probably more, on their own beyond what our better opponents will do.

And yeah even 9 wins might seem far-fetched to the growing bitter fans that have fallen into a daily routine of Kirk Ferentz/Greg Davis/Iowa sucks jokes, but if the team somehow comes together to max out their potential and their opponents do not, it is possible.

 

[sloehawk]

I mostly agree with your assessments.

Defense: about a month ago I speculated that this year's defense could be formidable and that comment was mocked without any counter-argument on the merits. The secondary could be excellent if the player winning the SS position plays well. Cornerback is a strength 2-deep. I don't see a big drop at DL with Johnson assuming one of the DL spots and returning starters at DE. Due to position changes and inexperience (Niemann), a question mark remains at LB, though, and improvement at these positions will be critical as the season progresses.

Offense: Here the main story is the OL, especially OT, and primarily pass protection. I have faith that Ferentz will have this unit improving as the season progresses even though there will be some maddening growing pains. After 3 years as a reserve, CJ Beathard takes the reigns - an upgrade in talent; bigger arm, better runner. I still believe that VandeBerg will emerge as a dependable WR and (50+ recpts / 7-8 TDs) to accompany Smith who is due for a major breakout season. Not worried about RB - Canzeri, Daniels, and Wadley are all capable IMO.
Health is a big concern for just about every starter position, the biggest concern obviously being QB.

The gloom you read on this board is a result of hostility towards Ferentz and Davis and that clouds just about everything these days. The only way to change that is to win games.

I respectfully disagree. The "gloom" comes from losing to a piss-poor Iowa State team 1/2 the time, losing games on a regular basis AT HOME, using a fullback at tailback for 3 straight years, employing the worst punting crew in DI Football for multiple years, and just generally watching a poor product with too many not very good DI players. Throw in getting BLOWN OUT in a Bowl Game against a young 6-6 Tennessee team, and what it is that is supposed to be so rosy about Iowa's prospects?

The "gloom" is the entire Football Program. It needs to get markedly better. I don't think it will. Would happily be as wrong as I could be. That "gloom" falls squarely on the shoulders of Kirk Ferentz.

 

[eddie4star]

Optimism will arrive with ferentz departure.

 

[hawkguy77]

I think the defense has a great chance to be improved this year, especially at the LB position. I think the offense will go as the OL goes. If they can gel as a unit i think we will see an offense that will be able to hold its own. If CJB is running for his life and RBs are getting hit at the line of scrimmage for most of the year I think that could lead to some losses to teams that we shouldn't be losing to.

Also at QB we have 0 depth there. The way the CJB plays i don't think it is out of the question to say that he could be injured for a couple games this year. Hopefully the #2 will be ready to step up (losing Rudock is going to hurt us this year).

I don't think 8-4 is out of the question

I don't agree that we have 0 depth at quarterback. Wiegers is the backup and I have no idea how well he may be able to play if pressed into service. He is a highly ranked recruit and could turn out to be better than CJB or Rudock. I do hope Beathard has a great season and Weigers is able to gain experience as a backup.

 

[HoustonHawkeye]

The defense makes me feel optimistic. Running backs also. Both areas seems to also have some depth.

But I have more concerns than optimism with: Punting, WR, QB depth, OL and OL depth...and coaching play calling/decision making.

Punting????
WR...maybe Scheel or the freshmen step up
QB...hopefully CJB stays healthy
OL...Welsh returns, Tackles progress rapidly
Coaching?????

That's All Folks

 

[DesMoinesHawki]

Iowa will not win 9 games. Laughable that some Iowa fans still try to polish this Ferentz turd. Holy cow ... If we had any type of tough schedule this is a 5-win program.

 

[Super Hawk]

Iowa will not win 9 games. Laughable that some Iowa fans still try to polish this Ferentz turd. Holy cow ... If we had any type of tough schedule this is a 5-win program.

Correct.

The sunshine pumpers never fail to come out in force during the offseason. Last year's team had a cakewalk to a 10-0 start, remember.

 

[dawgs_04]

Hard to be optimistic when our two tackles were drafted and we couldn't run the football last season. The scheme is garbage.

 

[nu2u]

Keeping Weisman at RB the last two seasons is one of Ferentz' biggest mistakes. I understood the need when injuries depleted the position but Weisman was a FB from the day he stepped on campus. He should have been moved back to FB in 2013.

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

I posted recently that I'd be shocked if we won 8+ games. I see no reason to change that opinion. I agree with the above sentiment that we're fortunate to have another weak schedule and agree that we probably win 5 or less games with a tough one.

I think most Iowa fans are beyond the point of wishful thinking in the off-season. We'll believe it when we see it on the field, and considering the mediocre talent and the ridiculously inept offensive scheme we run, not to mention the loss of two NFL draft picks from what was a mediocre O-line last year, significant improvement this season seems far-fetched at best.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Iowa will not win 9 games. Laughable that some Iowa fans still try to polish this Ferentz turd. .

Yeah, f*** those guys!.......................

 

[soybean]

I posted recently that I'd be shocked if we won 8+ games. I see no reason to change that opinion. I agree with the above sentiment that we're fortunate to have another weak schedule and agree that we probably win 5 or less games with a tough one.

I think most Iowa fans are beyond the point of wishful thinking in the off-season. We'll believe it when we see it on the field, and considering the mediocre talent and the ridiculously inept offensive scheme we run, not to mention the loss of two NFL draft picks from what was a mediocre O-line last year, significant improvement this season seems far-fetched at best.

That doesn't even make sense.

 

[ThatsFootball]

That doesn't even make sense.

It does if you subscribe to the notion that the OL play is also dependent on three other players. You might not agree with him that they were mediocre, but his argument certainly makes sense. And if you look at one of the major metrics used for evaluation of lines (rushing statistics), you would see he might have some validity to his argument. Obviously there are other factors in rushing statistics (such as playing a fullback at running back for 2 years), but most would agree that 163 yds/game for 63rd nationally doesn't bode well for people arguing this group was somehow better than "mediocre".

 

[Tiggerhawk]

Iowa should also not be in close games with teams like ISU or Ball State. If Iowa handles those teams like they should, then fans can handle losing close games.

Games like ISU and Ball State have been happening long enough. It happens so often now that I no longer believe Iowa is playing down to their opponent. I'm beginning to believe teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are playing down to Iowa.

If Iowa starts to blow out these poor teams, then I will believe we have taken a step forward. Until then, I will not believe Iowa is headed in the right direction.

What this overlooks is that the games against Moo U, Ball State, UNI, Northern Illinois, etc come at the very beginning of the season. One thing I remember Evy saying all those years ago was that you have to expect what looks like under-performance against teams not at the level of the Big Ten when you play them in September. Inexperience doesn't make as much difference for less talented players than for the best ones, who have more to learn and need longer to reach their maximum.

Do most fans think that the Hawkeyes would play down to Moo's level if the game was at the end of the season rather than the start?

Footnote: that foolish contradiction---losing two NFL tackles off a mediocreoffonsive line: sthis is even dumber when you take into account that two more OL off that team will eventually play in the NFL.

 

[dogs rule]

What this overlooks is that the games against Moo U, Ball State, UNI, Northern Illinois, etc come at the very beginning of the season. One thing I remember Evy saying all those years ago was that you have to expect what looks like under-performance against teams not at the level of the Big Ten when you play them in September. Inexperience doesn't make as much difference for less talented players than for the best ones, who have more to learn and need longer to reach their maximum.

Do most fans think that the Hawkeyes would play down to Moo's level if the game was at the end of the season rather than the start?

Footnote: that foolish contradiction---losing two NFL tackles off a mediocreoffonsive line: sthis is even dumber when you take into account that two more OL off that team will eventually play in the NFL.

November 24, 2001. ISU 17 Iowa 14

 

[ThatsFootball]

What this overlooks is that the games against Moo U, Ball State, UNI, Northern Illinois, etc come at the very beginning of the season. One thing I remember Evy saying all those years ago was that you have to expect what looks like under-performance against teams not at the level of the Big Ten when you play them in September. Inexperience doesn't make as much difference for less talented players than for the best ones, who have more to learn and need longer to reach their maximum.

Do most fans think that the Hawkeyes would play down to Moo's level if the game was at the end of the season rather than the start?

Why yes, I do. In fact, the only time they have played game that was later than September since the series resumed Iowa State won. I also remember thrilling late season losses such as 4-8 Indiana in 2012, 3-9 Minnesota in 2011 and 2010, 5-7 Western Michigan in 2007, and 4-8 Northwestern in 2006.

And I'm still laughing at the idea that inexperience means more for Iowa's "more talented players" than it does for teams with "lesser talented players". If anything, inexperience would magnify the shortcomings of the "lesser talented players".


EDIT*** Looks like dogs rule beat me to the November ISU/Iowa game.

 

[FlintTown]

It does if you subscribe to the notion that the OL play is also dependent on three other players. You might not agree with him that they were mediocre, but his argument certainly makes sense. And if you look at one of the major metrics used for evaluation of lines (rushing statistics), you would see he might have some validity to his argument. Obviously there are other factors in rushing statistics (such as playing a fullback at running back for 2 years), but most would agree that 163 yds/game for 63rd nationally doesn't bode well for people arguing this group was somehow better than "mediocre".

What amazes me is that Ferentz hasn't been able to sign a stud RB since McCall (who flamed out due to personal issues). It's such an easy sell -- get tons of carries in a pro-style offense, run behind a typically good to great OL, then sign name on NFL million-dollar contract.

That's been KF's biggest failure as of late, IMO, along with the lack of WR talent. Both positions are a dime a dozen in college football and not exclusive to the elite teams. A lot of MAC schools have no problem fielding a bunch of adequate skill guys who can make plays. Yet Iowa features a FB and very little in the way of receiving threats.

It's like KF does well developing the most elusive position groups in the DL and OL, but can't get the easiest personnel to come to IC.

Bizarre.

 

[eddie4star]

What amazes me is that Ferentz hasn't been able to sign a stud RB since McCall (who flamed out due to personal issues). It's such an easy sell -- get tons of carries in a pro-style offense, run behind a typically good to great OL, then sign name on NFL million-dollar contract.

That's been KF's biggest failure as of late, IMO, along with the lack of WR talent. Both positions are a dime a dozen in college football and not exclusive to the elite teams. A lot of MAC schools have no problem fielding a bunch of adequate skill guys who can make plays. Yet Iowa features a FB and very little in the way of receiving threats.

It's like KF does well developing the most elusive position groups in the DL and OL, but can't get the easiest personnel to come to IC.

Bizarre.

He can't sign the good ones because they know they will sit behind a full bac after learning the playbook for 3 years. They also know if they miss a block or fumble the ball they will be lucky to see the field again. Although captain clueless is getting better at putting guys in after making a mistake it only took 15 years and multiple disgruntled players.

 

[FBletterman]

I'm optimistic. Except for a few OL positions I think we are better every where . Coach Ferentz made a point to mention post spring that we are much better at LB. Our secondary is really good and I like this DL.

offensively I feel we our much better at QB in terms of decisions and athletic ability. taking 7-10 shots a game down field (meaning medium and long range) will change every thing. Healthy Canzeari and Daniels in all do respect is an much needed upgrade over a FB playing RB. Mitchell sounds like he could be a better 3rd down option than Bullock was in terms of natural abilities. WR I love T. Smith I think one of the big 10s best. Not to sold on Hilliard and Vandy but we will see, and Parker seems to be a forgotten man who has talent despite his bowl game blunder.

Mix that with another easy schedule and we my ceiling at 9 wins just depends on how the close ones go. I will say this we need to start blowing out teams that are inferior letting them hang around in the 4th quarter is a recipe for another 7 win season. I'm hoping CJs arm can really open things up for us?

 

[David1979]

There are reasons for optimism on the defense. Dline and DBs look to be pretty good and LB should at least be better than last year.
On offense Beathard is reason for optimism. I think he will make it tougher for teams to stack the box. It will also help not having Weisman at RB. Those two things could also make life a little easier for the new OTSs.

 

[RonnieHarmonshands]

November 24, 2001. ISU 17 Iowa 14

September 13, 2008 Iowa City Iowa 17 Iowa State 5 Iowa
September 12, 2009 Ames Iowa 35 Iowa State 3 Iowa
September 11, 2010 Iowa City #9 Iowa 35 Iowa State 7 Iowa

 

[GarryO37]

What this overlooks is that the games against Moo U, Ball State, UNI, Northern Illinois, etc come at the very beginning of the season. One thing I remember Evy saying all those years ago was that you have to expect what looks like under-performance against teams not at the level of the Big Ten when you play them in September. Inexperience doesn't make as much difference for less talented players than for the best ones, who have more to learn and need longer to reach their maximum.

Do most fans think that the Hawkeyes would play down to Moo's level if the game was at the end of the season rather than the start?

Footnote: that foolish contradiction---losing two NFL tackles off a mediocreoffonsive line: sthis is even dumber when you take into account that two more OL off that team will eventually play in the NFL.

Nov. 17, 2007 Western Michigan L 28-19
Nov. 27, 2010 at Minnesota L 27-24


Or how about these scores from early in the season in 2010:

Sept. 4, 2010 Eastern Illinois W 37-7
Sept. 11, 2010 Iowa State W 35-7
Sept. 25, 2010 Ball State W 45-0

Don't use quotes from Evy to try and justify poor play by Iowa.

 

[B1G]

I'm always optimistic at the start of every season. Ya just never know. I never have expectations tho. Just take it as it comes.

 

[Jimhawks79]

The sunshine pumpers never fail to come out in force during the offseason. Last year's team had a cakewalk to a 10-0 start, remember.

Agree. Anyone who thinks current Iowa FB saga has a happy ending, has not been paying attention!

 

[Kato Hawk]

I posted recently that I'd be shocked if we won 8+ games. I see no reason to change that opinion. I agree with the above sentiment that we're fortunate to have another weak schedule and agree that we probably win 5 or less games with a tough one.

I think most Iowa fans are beyond the point of wishful thinking in the off-season. We'll believe it when we see it on the field, and considering the mediocre talent and the ridiculously inept offensive scheme we run, not to mention the loss of two NFL draft picks from what was a mediocre O-line last year, significant improvement this season seems far-fetched at best.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

He can't sign the good ones because they know they will sit behind a full bac after learning the playbook for 3 years. They also know if they miss a block or fumble the ball they will be lucky to see the field again. Although captain clueless is getting better at putting guys in after making a mistake it only took 15 years and multiple disgruntled players.

Who should have been starting?

 

[ThatsFootball]

Who should have been starting?

Probably a running back instead of two fullbacks.

 

[cohawk]

He can't sign the good ones because they know they will sit behind a full bac after learning the playbook for 3 years. They also know if they miss a block or fumble the ball they will be lucky to see the field again. Although captain clueless is getting better at putting guys in after making a mistake it only took 15 years and multiple disgruntled players.

Who are all.these disgruntled players? Please name them.

 

[Calhill]

What amazes me is that Ferentz hasn't been able to sign a stud RB since McCall (who flamed out due to personal issues). It's such an easy sell -- get tons of carries in a pro-style offense, run behind a typically good to great OL, then sign name on NFL million-dollar contract.

That's been KF's biggest failure as of late, IMO, along with the lack of WR talent. Both positions are a dime a dozen in college football and not exclusive to the elite teams. A lot of MAC schools have no problem fielding a bunch of adequate skill guys who can make plays. Yet Iowa features a FB and very little in the way of receiving threats.

It's like KF does well developing the most elusive position groups in the DL and OL, but can't get the easiest personnel to come to IC.

Bizarre.

Exactly. But all other B1G coaches seem not to have a problem. He couldn't even lock in a 3 star RB this year.

 

[kyle23]

No optimism at all.....

 

[mrdr89]

So your whole basis for pessimism is on 4 bad plays over the course of the year? You must be a fun person to be around

 

[ThatsFootball]

So your whole basis for pessimism is on 4 bad plays over the course of the year? You must be a fun person to be around

I'm going to assume that you follow Iowa well enough to know that only one of those plays was from last year... Kinda gave it away when two of the gifs involved teams we didn't play last year.

As far as what they have to do with anything... I don't know. Sure don't need them to be pessimistic about the upcoming season.