Recruit / Develope?

[bman546]

r448chlpo
....To be among the elite requires hard work. Remember Bruce Kinseth, maybe not the greatest athlete when he enrolled at Iowa, but without question the hardest worker.

Hard work that lead to pinning his way through the 1979 Big Ten Tournament and then pinning his way through the NCAAs.

 

[slushhead]

Methinks you were engaged in just a wee bit of false modesty in bemoaning the holes in PSU's lineup and opining on how much more "stacked" tOSU is than PSU -- a team that is returning, ahem, five national champs, and has guys like Verkleeren and Manville destined to sit on the bench their entire careers (someone check their SAT scores b/c I am not seeing a lot of logic in their decisions), and Vodka, bless his soul, appropriately called "bullsh!t" on your post.

Really not my style, Gusaford. I'll try busting a ball every now-and-then in f*n, but I'll try to make it obvious when that's the case.

My post was genuine, and not bemoaning a thing. Just making a small point of clarification about just how "stacked" PSU's roster is.

PSU's model has not been and is not currently based on having a stud at every weight -- its championship teams do not typically qualify all 10 weights for Nationals. Rather, the model is 5-7 AAs, with 5 of them finalists (and 2-3 serious bonus machines). Consider the following:

2011: 8 qualifiers, 5 AAs, 3 finalists
2012: 9 qualifiers, 6 AAs, 5 finalists
2013: 10 qualifiers, 5 AAs, 5 finalists
2014: 10 qualifiers, 7 AAs, 2 finalists
2016: 9 qualifiers, 6 AAs, 5 finalists
2017: 9 qualifiers, 6 AAs, 5 finalists

Yeah, PSU had an awesome class sign this fall, but none of those guys have wrestled a college match. We'll see if they ultimately change the remarkably consistent pattern above. I do recognize that PSU signs a lot of highly-ranked recruits, but that doesn't mean much unless those recruits meet the expectations implied by their rankings. I'd much rather compare numbers with respect to performance.

A model of 9-10 AAs and just 2-3 finalists is an interesting strategy for comparison's sake. That is how Minnie was built in 2014, OkieSt in 2017, and tOSU in 2018. I'm excited to see how 2018 unfolds. As most are well aware, 10 AAs with no champs has sufficed for a championship in the past. But once again, PSU will be qualifying no more than 9 guys, and only 6 (maybe 7) seem to be sure-fire AAs.

Anyway, I have no agenda here. I just find the numbers interesting.

 

[rider976]

Really not my style, Gusaford. I'll try busting a ball every now-and-then in f*n, but I'll try to make it obvious when that's the case.

My post was genuine, and not bemoaning a thing. Just making a small point of clarification about just how "stacked" PSU's roster is.

PSU's model has not been and is not currently based on having a stud at every weight -- its championship teams do not typically qualify all 10 weights for Nationals. Rather, the model is 5-7 AAs, with 5 of them finalists (and 2-3 serious bonus machines). Consider the following:

2011: 8 qualifiers, 5 AAs, 3 finalists
2012: 9 qualifiers, 6 AAs, 5 finalists
2013: 10 qualifiers, 5 AAs, 5 finalists
2014: 10 qualifiers, 7 AAs, 2 finalists
2016: 9 qualifiers, 6 AAs, 5 finalists
2017: 9 qualifiers, 6 AAs, 5 finalists

Yeah, PSU had an awesome class sign this fall, but none of those guys have wrestled a college match. We'll see if they ultimately change the remarkably consistent pattern above. I do recognize that PSU signs a lot of highly-ranked recruits, but that doesn't mean much unless those recruits meet the expectations implied by their rankings. I'd much rather compare numbers with respect to performance.

A model of 9-10 AAs and just 2-3 finalists is an interesting strategy for comparison's sake. That is how Minnie was built in 2014, OkieSt in 2017, and tOSU in 2018. I'm excited to see how 2018 unfolds. As most are well aware, 10 AAs with no champs has sufficed for a championship in the past. But once again, PSU will be qualifying no more than 9 guys, and only 6 (maybe 7) seem to be sure-fire AAs.

Anyway, I have no agenda here. I just find the numbers interesting.

What does this mean? The original premise by YoungGun07 was that elite recruits are critical to winning team titles, and that PSU has had more elite recruits throughout their roster than other teams, which has led to their recent dominance. Nearly everyone would agree with that, even Karl I believe. For some reason, you challenged the "entire roster" portion of his statement by pointing out the holes in PSU's lineup this year from 125-141. But you neglected to mention that Suriano was a late transfer. Suriano and Cortez were both top 10 overall recruits, adding them to the 5 returning champs plus Nevills means the planned/projected lineup would have actually had 8 top 10 overall recruits, plus McCutcheon who was ranked around 30. No other team, including a very balanced fOSU squad, with their strongest lineup ever, could have matched that based on recruit rankings - Moore and Campbell were barely in the top 80. And if Cortez stayed at 133 and Lee went at 141, PSU could have rolled out 9 top 10 overall recruits, plus a 30.

When you were challenged by Vodka and Gusaford, you responded by pointing out that the PSU "model" doesn't have studs at all 10 weights, as if this is by design. So Karl intentionally limits his recruiting efforts to 5-7 elite wrestlers in the lineup? More likely, he stacks the lineup and the roster with as many top 10 overall recruits as possible to maximize the team scoring potential, including bonus points. The fact that Gulibon and the Alton twins didn't perform is not part of the "model".

Lastly your statement that - "I do recognize that PSU signs a lot of highly-ranked recruits, but that doesn't mean much unless those recruits meet the expectations implied by their rankings. I'd much rather compare numbers with respect to performance" - is ridiculous when having a discussion about the importance of recruiting. Maybe Karl agrees with you and we will see him stop recruiting top 10 wrestlers. Then we can do a study after the fact solely about performance.

 

[slushhead]

So Karl intentionally limits his recruiting efforts to 5-7 elite wrestlers in the lineup?

Of course not, and it wasn't my implication. I assumed we had moved past the "entire roster filled with elite recruits" suggestion -- because it clearly is an exaggeration -- and so I felt like taking a closer look at the numbers on how the roster actually performs at Nationals.

Of course the plan is to get as many elite recruits as possible. The reality is that no one goes 10 deep on those kinds of guys. Does PSU get the most? Yeah, but why shouldn't that be its goal? Really not worth debating it -- I made my small, minor point (and identified it as such) and will move on to other stuff.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Did Teasdale sign yet?

Yes

 

[Flying_Tiger]

That paragraph is loaded with garbage, even excessive for you FT.

"top 10 recruits don't require development" - never said that
top 10 recruits "can't miss" - never said that
"3 number 1 classes in past several years" for Iowa - provably false

Top 10 recruits do sometimes miss - think Daniel Craig of FL, #1 ranked HS wrestler in the country, but never reached AA status. I've never said they don't require development and can't miss, you're simply making up stuff.

Top 10 p4p recruits tend to outperform the 11-20 group and those lower. So in going after top 10 guys, you just increase the likelihood of success but with no guarantees. That is my opinion, and shared by most everyone.

In the past 7 years, Iowa has had only 1 top rated class of recruits, according to FLO, in 2012. That class included no one in the top 10. The highest recruit was Skonieczny, who as you must know, dropped out before wrestling a match. Kind of a paper tiger #1 recruit class to anyone with an ounce of common sense.

In 2016, PSU pulled in #1,#2 and #5 recruits. That's 3 in the top 5.
Iowa has never had a year like that under Brands.

2017, Iowa's best year for Brands recruiting, pulled in #2, #7, and #44
2017 saw PSU get #4, #6, and #20, arguably on a par with Iowa for the year.

Looks like we are making some progress, so Cael does deserve credit for the way he develops the top 10 guys he brings in since as you admit "Top 10 recruits do sometimes miss" although factually speaking sometimes is more like about 50% and PSU's top 10s exceed that rate by quite a bit.

And yes, "Top 10 p4p recruits tend to outperform the 11-20 group and those lower" so PSU's current class that has only one guy in the top 10 and several spread out between 11 down to the low 40s is not a slam dunk and will require development.

So if Iowa wasn't #1 for 3 recruiting classes, what were they #2 a couple times. Still extremely strong classes and at least one reputable ranking service (maybe more) did have them #1 for 3 classes over the past several years.

Finally you simple ignore how when Joseph knocks off Imar or Nickal beats Dean that has nothing to do with recruiting rankings and everything to do with development of wrestlers at a very high level. I don't think there is another college coach in wrestling that could of taken two younger guys, no matter the ranking, and beat those two at NCAAs on the same night. That was a Dan Gable type coaching performance wether you want to admit it or not.

 

[nearfall2]

I'm starting to feel that the number one predictor of top D1 success is elite level natural strength. Obviously balance, speed, and technique are major components, but if you take the top few kids in a class the kid with stupid natural strength seems the most likely to be the 2 to 3X champion. Stupid strong: Zain, Brands', Williams', Ruth, Dean, Dake, Snyder, Imar, Nolf, etc... That is why I really feel so good about Lee and Warner. You constantly hear comments like 'he has the heaviest hands.'

 

[Pennstate1985]

I'm starting to feel that the number one predictor of top D1 success is elite level natural strength. Obviously balance, speed, and technique are major components, but if you take the top few kids in a class the kid with stupid natural strength seems the most likely to be the 2 to 3X champion. Stupid strong: Zain, Brands', Williams', Ruth, Dean, Dake, Snyder, Imar, Nolf, etc... That is why I really feel so good about Lee and Warner. You constantly hear comments like 'he has the heaviest hands.'

Interesting post. To play devil's advocate, could natural strength simply be that the wrestler is better at leverage, and thus a technique issue rather than mainly a strength one?

 

[Pennstate1985]

So if Iowa wasn't #1 for 3 recruiting classes, what were they #2 a couple times. Still extremely strong classes and at least one reputable ranking service (maybe more) did have them #1 for 3 classes over the past several years.

I don't like using ranking services to judge class rank as the end all, be all, as I find they often put emphasis on quantity of recruits and/or other factors such as how well a recruit fits into the lineup, when in fact we know that Nationals is often won with your studs as a foundation on the team.

For example, let's say Team A gets the #3 and #8 pfp guy each year, and Team B gets #11, #24, #26, #32, #38, and #47 each year. I have seen Team B ranked higher than Team A repeatedly over the years, yet we all know that Team A will have ten studs on the mat by year five winning the national championship while Team B often gets a participation trophy.

 

[rider976]

I made my small, minor point (and identified it as such) and will move on to other stuff.

Fair enough. I'll move on as well. Maybe I'll go have a Snickers.

 

[TarpHawk]

I don't like using ranking services to judge class rank as the end all, be all, as I find they often put emphasis on quantity of recruits and/or other factors such as how well a recruit fits into the lineup, when in fact we know that Nationals is often won with your studs as a foundation on the team.

For example, let's say Team A gets the #3 and #8 pfp guy each year, and Team B gets #11, #24, #26, #32, #38, and #47 each year. I have seen Team B ranked higher than Team A repeatedly over the years, yet we all know that Team A will have ten studs on the mat by year five winning the national championship while Team B often gets a participation trophy.

And not just a hypothetical example, exactly what happened.

 

[nearfall2]

Interesting post. To play devil's advocate, could natural strength simply be that the wrestler is better at leverage, and thus a technique issue rather than mainly a strength one?

Maybe they can force technique that others can't or recover from a poor position better. Maybe force motion that opens people up. Dan Hodge could bring people to there knees just by squeezing their wrists.

 

[rossel 33]

I don't like using ranking services to judge class rank as the end all, be all, as I find they often put emphasis on quantity of recruits and/or other factors such as how well a recruit fits into the lineup, when in fact we know that Nationals is often won with your studs as a foundation on the team.

For example, let's say Team A gets the #3 and #8 pfp guy each year, and Team B gets #11, #24, #26, #32, #38, and #47 each year. I have seen Team B ranked higher than Team A repeatedly over the years, yet we all know that Team A will have ten studs on the mat by year five winning the national championship while Team B often gets a participation trophy.

This is a good point. Ranking services, more so in the past, tended to overemphasize getting lots of top 100 guys rather than getting, say 2 or 3 top 10 guys.

In 2016, FLO gave PSU the #2 recruiting ranking in 2016, when they got #1 Hall, #2 Suriano, and #5 Manville. This could arguably be called one of the best recruiting years by any school in recent years.

Hall was coming off winning his 2nd Jr World FS title (by TF, no less). But by some kind of pretzel logic, this was deemed inferior to NC State's haul of #4 Reenan, #6 Hildlay, #42 D Bullard and #43 T Bullard.

By recent statements, I think FLO (Nomad, specifically) is starting to emphasize getting several top 10 or 20 guys has more likely payoff than getting 7 guys ranked in the 50-100 range.

 

[rossel 33]

Looks like we are making some progress, so Cael does deserve credit for the way he develops the top 10 guys he brings in since as you admit "Top 10 recruits do sometimes miss" although factually speaking sometimes is more like about 50% and PSU's top 10s exceed that rate by quite a bit.

And yes, "Top 10 p4p recruits tend to outperform the 11-20 group and those lower" so PSU's current class that has only one guy in the top 10 and several spread out between 11 down to the low 40s is not a slam dunk and will require development.

So if Iowa wasn't #1 for 3 recruiting classes, what were they #2 a couple times. Still extremely strong classes and at least one reputable ranking service (maybe more) did have them #1 for 3 classes over the past several years.

Finally you simple ignore how when Joseph knocks off Imar or Nickal beats Dean that has nothing to do with recruiting rankings and everything to do with development of wrestlers at a very high level. I don't think there is another college coach in wrestling that could of taken two younger guys, no matter the ranking, and beat those two at NCAAs on the same night. That was a Dan Gable type coaching performance wether you want to admit it or not.

I don't want to belabor this point. Of course Cael helps wrestlers develop. But like others on this board, I've felt it's a little harder to gauge how much, since most of his starters are already at a high level. The majority were #1 in their HS weight class, and some were considered the very best p4p. He didn't have recruits at ISU like he does at PSU, and his results were correlating with that pretty closely.

When a guy like Snyder came into tOSU as a fr, already having won a Jr World FS title, and #1 p4p, you had a pretty good indicator he was going to be a force. I'm not sure how much of the credit for Kyle's success belongs to coach Ryan. It's hard to tell, given his high status to begin with.

Similarly, a guy like Hall, a two time Jr World FS champ and #1 p4p out of HS, seems like a good bet to achieve high success in college. Likewise, I'm not convinced Cael is the primary reason for his success.

I'd say the same about Pico, had he entered college. I would also include the current #1 p4p, class of 2018 and 2x Jr World champ, Minny's Steveson. If Steveson becomes an AA as a true fr, is it all credited to Eggum having developed him?

In your desire to deify Cael, you seem to downplay just how good Hall, Retherford, Nolf, Nickal were coming out of HS.... before Cael's fairy dust fell on them.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

You say it's hard to gauge Cael's development since most of his starters are at a high level however Retherford, Nolf, Nickal and Joseph were not considered can't miss like Hall or Snyder, who were #1 overall, and there have been plenty of guys ranked in that 3-7 range that haven't accomplished anything close to what they have. Furthermore, you have guys like Matt Brown (#73) and Frank Molinaro(#68) who became multiple AAs and National Champions despite their marginal recruiting rankings and Conaway and English who weren't even ranked in the top 100 yet became all americans.

Here is the top 10 recruiting rankings for those classes in question. Compare the results with the guys ranked ahead and just behind:


1. Bo Jordan St. Paris OH 165 Ohio State
2. Adam Coon Fowlerville MI 285 Michigan
3. Zain Retherford Benton PA 141 Penn State
4. Ben Whitford St. John's MI 149 Michigan
5. Isaiah Martinez Lemoore CA 165 Illinois
6. Joey Dance Christiansburg VA 125 Virginia Tech
7. J'Den Cox Hickman MO 285 Missouri
8. Anthony Ashnault South Plainfield NJ 141 Rutgers
9. Brooks Black Dover PA 285 Illinois
10. Nathan Tomasello Parma OH 125 Ohio State


1. Kyle Snyder Woodbine MD 197 Ohio State
2. Chance Marsteller Fawn Grove PA 174 Oklahoma State
3. Bryce Brill Mt. Carmel IL 157 Northwestern
4. Jason Nolf Rural Valley PA 149 Penn State
5. Nick Nevills Clovis CA 285 Penn State
6. Micah Jordan St. Paris OH 157 Ohio State
7. Bo Nickal Allen TX 184 Penn State
8. Joey McKenna Pine Brook NJ 141 Stanford
9. Thomas Haines Solanco PA 285 Ohio State
10. Solomon Chisko Jeannette PA 149 Virginia Tech

1. Anthony Valencia Bellflower CA 174 Arizona State
2. Logan Massa St. John's MI 165 Michigan
3. Zahid Valencia Bellflower CA 184 Arizona State
4. Myles Martin Penns Grove NJ 184 Ohio State
5. Vincenzo Joseph Pittsburgh PA 149 Penn State
6. Matt Kolodzik Bellbrook OH 141 Princeton
7. Nick Piccinnini East Setauket NY 125 Oklahoma State
8. Michael Kemerer Murrysville PA 149 Iowa
9. Kaid Brock Stillwater OK 133 Oklahoma State
10. Lance Benick Fridley MN 197 Arizona State

Note also DI College recruiting rewind for classes that have graduated:

1) Quentin Wright-197 (Penn State) 74 points original ranking #12
3) Frank Molinaro-149 (Penn State) 57 points #68
6) Matt Brown-165 (Penn State) 56 points #73
21) Jordan Conaway-133 (Penn State) 26 points #109