It also depends on how many small confs end up with their tournament champ not being the same as their conf champ. I can recall several instances where MVC would get 2 or even 3 teams in rather than just the auto bid/conf tourney champ. Keeps the 6th and 7th bid away from some of the P5 confs.If there were 4-5 teams tied at 12-6 (e.g. top 7 teams in the conference are 12-6 or better), I could see Iowa being left out.
If Iowa were clearly the #3 or #4 team at 12-6, it's unlikely they'd be skipped over.
12-6 would be a high-bar for this team, as there are easily 5 more games we will be heavy underdogs in.
11-7 and anything lower than 5th place (or a tie where we'd be 6th or 7th) and we're probably out.
B10 should easily get 5-6 teams into the tournament in any given year.