Scientists: 10 percent chance that Yellowstone super volcano will erupt soon

[The Tradition]

Yellowstone about to blow? Scientists warning over SUPER-VOLCANO that could kill MILLIONS

SCIENTISTS have warned the world is in "volcano season" and there is up to a 10% chance of an eruption soon killing millions of people and devastating the planet.

Instances of volcanic eruptions are their highest for 300 years and scientists fear a major one that could kill millions and devastate the planet is a real possibility.

Experts at the European Science Foundation said volcanoes – especially super-volcanoes like the one at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, which has a caldera measuring 34 by 45 miles (55 by 72 km) - pose more threat to Earth and the survival of humans than asteroids, earthquakes, nuclear war and global warming.

There are few real contingency plans in place to deal with the ticking time bomb, which they conclude is likely to go off within the next 80 years.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...in-10-chance-super-volcano-will-kill-millions

 

[GarryO37]

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Well that sux

 

[ANYCHawk]

So 90 percent chance it does't? I like our odds.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

There are few real contingency plans in place to deal with the ticking time bomb, which they conclude is likely to go off within the next 80 years.

Not sure where they get "likely...within the next 80 years" from a 10% chance...though that is extraordinarily high for an event like this. On the plus side - a post-eruption US would be a libertarian wet dream.

 

[IMCC965]

Buy your guns now because you're going to need them post-apocolypse.

 

[22*43*51]

I think it is a 10% chance for one of the big 3 mentioned in the article.

So, the odds for it not being YS are even better.

Otherwise, that is what generators/guns/freeze-dried meals are for.

 

[Huey Grey]

Anybody else read it as, "Yellowsnow?"

 

[NoleSoup4U]

Have the global warming people tried to slap an injunction on that yet? Cause it's really gonna f*** up the warming process. Maybe they'll find some to make this mankind's fault.

 

[LuteHawk]

The mortality rate of the human race is 100%. Everyone
will eventually die, it is only a question of when. Tough
to beat those odds.

 

[jaffarosenfels]

The mortality rate of the human race is 100%. Everyone
will eventually die, it is only a question of when. Tough
to beat those odds.

So in other words, don't worry about storing up on guns and ammo

 

[markfromj]

...a 10% chance of an eruption soon...
...is likely to go off within the next 80 years.

These two segments make no mathematical sense whatsoever. If "soon" is "80 years" how is "10%" equal to "likely"?

 

[aflachawk]

Yellowstone about to blow? Scientists warning over SUPER-VOLCANO that could kill MILLIONS

SCIENTISTS have warned the world is in "volcano season" and there is up to a 10% chance of an eruption soon killing millions of people and devastating the planet.

Instances of volcanic eruptions are their highest for 300 years and scientists fear a major one that could kill millions and devastate the planet is a real possibility.

Experts at the European Science Foundation said volcanoes – especially super-volcanoes like the one at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, which has a caldera measuring 34 by 45 miles (55 by 72 km) - pose more threat to Earth and the survival of humans than asteroids, earthquakes, nuclear war and global warming.

There are few real contingency plans in place to deal with the ticking time bomb, which they conclude is likely to go off within the next 80 years.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...in-10-chance-super-volcano-will-kill-millions

What contingency plans are possible that will do good? If Yellowstone blows it will change life as we know it whether we have plans or not.

 

[artradley]

These two segments make no mathematical sense whatsoever. If "soon" is "80 years" how is "10%" equal to "likely"?

I guess it's relative. In geological terms, 80 years is pretty damn soon; as in there are people walking around today who would experience it. Compared to other life ending events, like a comet hitting the earth or the sun dying, it is very, very near term.

And if somebody told you that there was a 10% chance you would die within the next 30 days, that would be pretty likely compared to what you otherwise would have assumed the odds to be. It would probably shake you up.

 

[Joes Place]

Yellowstone about to blow? Scientists warning over SUPER-VOLCANO that could kill MILLIONS

SCIENTISTS have warned the world is in "volcano season" and there is up to a 10% chance of an eruption soon killing millions of people and devastating the planet.

Instances of volcanic eruptions are their highest for 300 years and scientists fear a major one that could kill millions and devastate the planet is a real possibility.

Experts at the European Science Foundation said volcanoes – especially super-volcanoes like the one at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, which has a caldera measuring 34 by 45 miles (55 by 72 km) - pose more threat to Earth and the survival of humans than asteroids, earthquakes, nuclear war and global warming.

There are few real contingency plans in place to deal with the ticking time bomb, which they conclude is likely to go off within the next 80 years.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...in-10-chance-super-volcano-will-kill-millions

Lolwut???
Ummm, nope. Sorry, just another victim of exceedingly poor 'science news' reporting here...

That last statement, in itself, is very telling. Never are the scientists named in any of these articles. Never is that statement linked back to an actual source. No self-respecting volcanologist would ever say such a thing—and, more importantly, the geologists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory have never, ever even implied such a thing.

So, is it in the actual ESF study? Well, I did some digging and found the following:

• The number of times Yellowstone is mentioned in the 70+ page report: 2 (once for the date of its last massive eruption and once in the reference list for that date).
• The number of times report talks about an impending Yellowstone eruption in the next 70 years: zero. none. never.
• The number of times report even mentions the idea of a major Tambora or worse eruption definitely happening in next 70 years: absolutely nowhere.

What about the notion that the Earth is in a supposed “volcano season” with more eruptions in the last 300 years?

• The number of references to “volcano season”? Zero. The report very briefly discusses the idea of a “flareup”, where there may be an increase in very large eruptions in different parts of the world but (a) we’re not in one and (b) there is no indication we are headed towards one. Flareups are separated by millions or tens of millions of years. Even if it is the case, “volcano season” as a hypothesis claims that during certain seasons of the year, there may be slightly more eruptions—and there is very little agreement that such a thing actually exists. It does not mean we are in any period of heightened activity (and we’re not).
• The number of times the study says there are more eruptions now? None.

So, where did these completely wrong ideas arise? My guess is that we’re seeing the results of the internet’s massive game of telephone, in which some of the earlier (mostly terrible) articles about the ESF study tried to tie it into Yellowstone and “volcano season.” Somehow, we got to the point where all the subsequent articles parroted and distorted the those early articles and the people writing those article couldn’t be bothered to read, or even peruse, the actual source material.

Physicist Michio Kaku even showed up on Fox News to spread more scaremongering with wrong/misleading information. I mean, could we really not find any volcanologist or geologist to intelligently discuss the study or Yellowstone’s chance of activity? The laziness of current media science coverage means we get shoddy reporting, inappropriate “experts” and spreading of nothing but false or misleading information.

Where does this leave us? Well, as I have mentioned before about Yellowstone, you should rarely trust any reports about an impending eruption of Yellowstone, unless it is coming from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. Right now, the chances of a massive Yellowstone caldera eruption within the next century are infinitesimally small. Even if any eruption at Yellowstone were to happen, it is much more likely to be small eruption, maybe on the scale of Mount St. Helens in 1980. Currently, there are no signs, no evidence, nothing to suggest any eruption is in the works. Even the study that says there is a lot of magma under Yellowstone (and there is) also adds that it is less eruptible magma.
​

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/chill-out-yellowstone-isnt-about-to-destroy-us-all/

 

[Madman_1]

Lolwut???
Ummm, nope. Sorry, just another victim of exceedingly poor 'science news' reporting here...

That last statement, in itself, is very telling. Never are the scientists named in any of these articles. Never is that statement linked back to an actual source. No self-respecting volcanologist would ever say such a thing—and, more importantly, the geologists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory have never, ever even implied such a thing.

So, is it in the actual ESF study? Well, I did some digging and found the following:

• The number of times Yellowstone is mentioned in the 70+ page report: 2 (once for the date of its last massive eruption and once in the reference list for that date).
• The number of times report talks about an impending Yellowstone eruption in the next 70 years: zero. none. never.
• The number of times report even mentions the idea of a major Tambora or worse eruption definitely happening in next 70 years: absolutely nowhere.

What about the notion that the Earth is in a supposed “volcano season” with more eruptions in the last 300 years?

• The number of references to “volcano season”? Zero. The report very briefly discusses the idea of a “flareup”, where there may be an increase in very large eruptions in different parts of the world but (a) we’re not in one and (b) there is no indication we are headed towards one. Flareups are separated by millions or tens of millions of years. Even if it is the case, “volcano season” as a hypothesis claims that during certain seasons of the year, there may be slightly more eruptions—and there is very little agreement that such a thing actually exists. It does not mean we are in any period of heightened activity (and we’re not).
• The number of times the study says there are more eruptions now? None.

So, where did these completely wrong ideas arise? My guess is that we’re seeing the results of the internet’s massive game of telephone, in which some of the earlier (mostly terrible) articles about the ESF study tried to tie it into Yellowstone and “volcano season.” Somehow, we got to the point where all the subsequent articles parroted and distorted the those early articles and the people writing those article couldn’t be bothered to read, or even peruse, the actual source material.

Physicist Michio Kaku even showed up on Fox News to spread more scaremongering with wrong/misleading information. I mean, could we really not find any volcanologist or geologist to intelligently discuss the study or Yellowstone’s chance of activity? The laziness of current media science coverage means we get shoddy reporting, inappropriate “experts” and spreading of nothing but false or misleading information.

Where does this leave us? Well, as I have mentioned before about Yellowstone, you should rarely trust any reports about an impending eruption of Yellowstone, unless it is coming from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. Right now, the chances of a massive Yellowstone caldera eruption within the next century are infinitesimally small. Even if any eruption at Yellowstone were to happen, it is much more likely to be small eruption, maybe on the scale of Mount St. Helens in 1980. Currently, there are no signs, no evidence, nothing to suggest any eruption is in the works. Even the study that says there is a lot of magma under Yellowstone (and there is) also adds that it is less eruptible magma.
​

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/chill-out-yellowstone-isnt-about-to-destroy-us-all/

Joe, your take on this situation isn't nearly as interesting or scary as the original information referenced in this post. Therefore, I'm disregarding your argument.

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!

 

[tarheelbybirth]

Lolwut???
Ummm, nope. Sorry, just another victim of exceedingly poor 'science news' reporting here...

I figured that had to be the case given the completely contradictory info presented. I watched the Kaku segment and I'm not sure he was engaged in "scare-mongering", however.

 

[lucas80]

If that thing blows it will be in game four of the World Series with the Cubs up 3 games to none. It will be in the 9th inning with the Cubs leading 12-0.