Serious Question

[B1G RED RULES]

I come in peace with a serious question. There is no way I can gloat about your bowl game because my team has been on the receiving side of several blowouts since the turn of the century.

As a fan of another team, looking at Iowa from the outside, it seems like Ferentz will produce 1-3 very good team every 5 years or so, then inexplicably go into an average run for a few years. IIRC, there was a pretty good run from 2002-2004, but then not until 2009 was there another really good team, then again fell off until this year.

On paper Iowa should should (or come close to) repeating the same season you had in 2015 in 2016. What happened in 2010 to change things from the previous year (loss of key players, tougher schedule, etc)? Just curious - do you see Ferentz continuing the success of this past season?

 

[ICWestfan]

12-0 is nearly impossible to repeat. That said, Iowa's schedule next year is certainly favorable for sustained success. IMO, complacency will be the biggest culprit as to whether or not Iowa is the B1G west champ again.

 

[VodkaSam]

Yes, I believe the Hawkeyes will bounce back from this and have another excellent season this coming year. Several key returning players, and the possibility of King returning and a 10% chance of Ott getting a medical redshirt would be icing on the cake.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I come in peace with a serious question. There is no way I can gloat about your bowl game because my team has been on the receiving side of several blowouts since the turn of the century.

As a fan of another team, looking at Iowa from the outside, it seems like Ferentz will produce 1-3 very good team every 5 years or so, then inexplicably go into an average run for a few years. IIRC, there was a pretty good run from 2002-2004, but then not until 2009 was there another really good team, then again fell off until this year.

On paper Iowa should should (or come close to) repeating the same season you had in 2015 in 2016. What happened in 2010 to change things from the previous year (loss of key players, tougher schedule, etc)? Just curious - do you see Ferentz continuing the success of this past season?

Inexplicably?

Once again, please list the teams that have sustained excellence in football for the last 17 years.

1.
2.
3.

????

 

[DUpHawks]

2010 was a catastrophe. Every significant player returned from '09 except for the linebackers.

They lost a ton of close games. Every single loss was by a single score, and we had the lead in the 4th quarter of every game, I believe. That team was loaded with NFL talent all over the field.

They lost a West Coast night game at Arizona that was just a meltdown (blocked punt led to a TD, 100 yard KO return for a TD, lost the game by 7).

We had our hearts ripped out against probably the best Wisconsin team of the last 50 years. Had a lead, gave up a terrible fake punt, then they drove down the field for the winning score. We had a final drive, wasted TOs, forgot it was legal to spike the ball, and lost, 31-30. We had a missed XP in that game, too.

Rebounded the next week and beat the shit out of a really good MSU team that was undefeated and ranked #5 (finished 11-1 before losing their bowl game to Alabama).

Then lost 3 brutal one score games to end the season: Northwestern, who used to beat us annually, no matter how good we were, a game which we led by 10 points with like 5 or 6 minutes left and lost 21-17 on a last-second TD pass.

Lost at home to a great OSU team 20-17 when Terrelle Pryor converted an insane 4th-and-forever with a huge scramble in the 4th quarter.

Then just absolutely quit and lost a brutal game in freezing weather to an awful Minnesota team. Easily one of the worst losses in Iowa football history.

They then regrouped and won the bowl game over a Top 10 Missouri team with a 1st round pick at QB.

That team was easily one of the 10 most talented in the country, and just perpetuates the narrative that Iowa only has good years when no one expects them to, and falls on their ass whenever they're supposed to be good.

That roster featured at least 3 future NFL players on the DL, the only Iowa QB of the last 30 years to make an NFL roster (still active), the two leading receivers in school history (total catches and yardage), and a bunch of other studs.

Most people will blame the defense, even though we finished in the Top 10 nationally in total and scoring D.

 

[DUpHawks]

To get back to the broader theme of the OP's post, yes, the KF tenure at Iowa has been noticeably cyclical.

He started with a bare cupboard, had 2 losing years, a turnaround bowl season in year 3, then 3 excellent years in a row (2002-4) when we finished ranked #8 in the final polls each year.

2005 was supposed to be more of the same (preseason AP Top 10), but some key youth on defense stunted an excellent offense, and in typical KF fashion, several close losses were the difference between 7-5 and 10-2. This was followed by the disastrous 2006 and 2007 seasons.

2008 was a rebound year, but again, Iowa lost several close games that arguably should have been victories. The team finished 9-4 but could have been much better. They were arguably playing as well as any Iowa team ever has during the last half of the season.

That of course was the springboard into the epic 2009 season, which was supposed to be capped off by the even better 2010 campaign, mirroring the earlier 3 year run. Instead, the year turned into a travesty from which it looked like the program would never recover.

The next few years were always going to be rebuilding years, but a large portion of the fanbase felt "robbed" of one of the great seasons that we were supposed to be entitled to, especially when you consider how much better 2008 could have ultimately been.

The failure in 2010 had a lot to do with the hot seat that he has felt the last few years. If that year was great like it was supposed to have been, you would have had a lot less bitching during the ensuing mediocrity, as everyone understands how his tenure has gone in cycles. It's just that the good periods were getting shorter, and the crap was getting longer.

But to summarize, I think Iowa will be the prohibitive favorite in the West next year, and only a similarly epic meltdown to 2010 will keep us from a repeat trip to Indy. Beyond that, it's hard to say. It's hard to pencil in a return to Pasadena when you account for the fact that we will likely have to go through OSU, Mich, or Sparty to get there, although all of those teams look to be flawed going into next year.

Iowa will have notable flaws themselves (dreadful receiving corps for a Power 5 contender, pass blocking on the level of a middle school JV team) and a defense that tends to get run over in big games. As is often the story at Iowa, a handful of close games will decide whether it's a great year or mediocre. Stay tuned.

 

[Hans81]

Good question by OP and I appreciate a Nebraska fan not piling on the Hawks poor performance yesterday.

My take on the "down" years by Iowa (following stronger years) is simply that the B10 has a lot of parity and there is a small margin for error in having a 11 - 2 type season (where this isn't even a discussion thread) and having an 8 - 5 season. In looking back at the 2010 season, Iowa lost 3 very close games (Wisconsin by 1 point in Kinnick and to N'Western by 4 and Minny by 3, both on the road). The Wisky game really hurt as Iowa had taken a late lead and on a 4th down and 4 from Wisconsin's own 26 yard line late in the game, Wisky fakes a punt and their punter scampers 17 yards against totally unprepared Hawk team. Wisky then scores the winning TD. Iowa closed out the season strong with a decent 27 - 24 victory over Mizzou in the Insight Bowl, for an 8 - 5 record. However, if Iowa even wins 2 out of the 3 aforementioned tight games, they end season at 10-3.

Regarding next year, with 16 of 22 starters potentially returning (assuming King and perhaps Ott return), with the trophy games in Kinnick, a senior QB, and a chip on their shoulder, I see no reason why Iowa can't repeat as West Division champs. Looking at the other contenders in the division: Wisky loses quite a bit on defense and their QB, Minny and Nebraska return their QB's which I think is a positive for Iowa as I'm not a big fan of either Leidner or Armstrong leading their teams to a divisional championship. The team I'm most concerned about is N'Western as they return a decent team and QB. My early pick for top 4 teams in the West are: (1) Iowa, (2) Northwestern, (3a/3b) Nebby and Wisky.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

If Iowa can get past North Dakota State (and yes I am serious) I see them going 10-2 or 9-3

 

[scarletred]

No sense dogging Iowa our game in the Rose Bowl when we were their didn't look much different in terms of the final result.

Have relatives in Fargo and NDST won't be as experienced as they have been in the past.
No question their the best FCS program but Iowa would have to really stub their toe to lose that game with what you have coming back.

Watched the game with a Hawkeyes buddy's yesterday and before the Rose Bowl game started one said next year's West Champ could have a 7-2 record.

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

Personally I don't view our periodic down years as all that surprising. It's easy to look around college football and find numerous other programs with many more built-in advantages in terms of recruiting and resources than Iowa that also go through up and down years. We had a Hall of Fame coach in the 80s and 90s that also had periodic down years (88-89, 92-94, etc) so it's not like this is a new thing.

Michigan St and Wisconsin have been up lately but I'm sure they will have some cyclicality as well. And to be clear, in Iowa's down years with only one or two exceptions we are still a bowl team with a winning record so it's not like we are ever that awful.

 

[Grappler54]

I come in peace with a serious question. There is no way I can gloat about your bowl game because my team has been on the receiving side of several blowouts since the turn of the century.

As a fan of another team, looking at Iowa from the outside, it seems like Ferentz will produce 1-3 very good team every 5 years or so, then inexplicably go into an average run for a few years. IIRC, there was a pretty good run from 2002-2004, but then not until 2009 was there another really good team, then again fell off until this year.

On paper Iowa should should (or come close to) repeating the same season you had in 2015 in 2016. What happened in 2010 to change things from the previous year (loss of key players, tougher schedule, etc)? Just curious - do you see Ferentz continuing the success of this past season?

someone please give him a serious answer

 

[parker01]

The difference between 8-4 and 12-0 at Iowa is generally not that big. Iowa wins when they run effectively, protect the ball, and play fundamentally sound inside the trenches. We win a lot of close games with that style. But close games can easily go the other way with just a few slip ups.

I expect Iowa to be better next year with a healthy Beathard and a lot returning. But the record may not reflect the improvement.

 

[moondog24]

The Hawkeyes are one of 8 teams in the country out of 128 FBS teams to win 12 games. You know how hard that is – heck they couldn’t even get enough teams with .500 records to fill the bowl slots. Yeah, I am disappointed in how the Rose Bowl turned out. I thought it might be more competitive. My heart hoped for an Iowa victory but my head told me it was highly unlikely. Stanford was a better football team with better athletes. Not better people, just better athletes. I don’t care what kind of schemes you come up with on offense or defense, if one team has more athletes than another, they will win most of the time. Football is a game that is won in the trenches, Stanford won that war and dominated the game. Today’s game usually comes down to recruiting as it has for years. There are usually two to three teams in each conference that have a decided edge in recruiting. The rest of the team depend on player development. Iowa is one of these schools. They don’t have the pick of the litter like Ohio State, Alabama, etc. And if any of the expects on this board think they know how to get more 4 and 5 star recruits send your resumes in and let’s see what you can do.

The schedule, while tougher next season, will still be favorable for the Hawks. We return several key players who will be very motivated to demonstrate what Iowa football is all about. If we can avoid injuries and develop more depth, we should be favorites to win the West and get back to Indianapolis.

 

[mazda1]

I think we can have a team equal to this year next season, but I don't expect the record to be as good. We need to stay healthy as we just don't have size ready talent waiting for their turn.

If we have King, Ott, CJ, and a healthy o-line we're pretty decent. As the injuries hit us we had great effort and chemistry but the performances declined.

Our lines will lose some key cogs and often they take a while to jell. I expect some position changes on the o-line as well. There are teams WI & Ne that were very young and should be better. Mi will improve too.

I expect solid results, but 9-3 would be my guess. There are those who' ll call that bad, but I think it's pretty realistic.