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Sneaking a peak at 2016

OnceAhawk

HB MVP
Jan 29, 2015
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I count 20 Seniors.

Losing these guys, and thinking about their 2016 replacement, how do you feel about the 2016 season?

Defensive Line:
DE--Drew Ott
DE--Nate Meir
DE--Melvin Spears
DL--Darian Cooper


Back 7 on Defense:
LB--Cole Fisher
LB--Travis Perry
DB--Jordan Lomax
DB--Sean Draper


Offensive Line:
C--- Austin Blythe
RG--Jordan Walsh
OL--Eric SImmons


Tight Ends:
TE---Jake Duzey
TE-- Henry Krieger Coble

Wide Receivers:
WR--Tevaun Smith
WR--Jacob Hillyer
WR--Andrew Stone


Running Backs:
RB--Jordan Canzeri
FB--Macon Plewa


Special Teams
K--Marshall Koehn
P--DIllon Kidd
 
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The official roster at Hawkeye Sports has 21 seniors - I think you missed Adam Cox.

At Iowa, you win with upper classman. 21 seniors is a lot to lose in any year, but this particular list is filled with important playmakers. Losing both the kicker and the punter sucks.

The Hawks are going to need a lot of guys to step up. What's new?
 
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The good news is we have a lot of talented guys coming back. Assuming King comes back, we get back 3 out of our 4 best defensive players in Jewell, Johnson and King. Offensively, the loss of Blythe and Walsh is tough but we get CJ 3/5 of our OL our best play maker in the passing game Vandenberg. Daniels should mitigate the loss on the OL. Overall, 13 starters back and a pretty strong list of Seniors.
 
Biggest loss IMO is Blythe. Kids has been dominating all year. The next biggest loss would be King if he chooses to leave early. Really like what our DL could look like next year even with the losses.
 
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Biggest loss IMO is Blythe. Kids has been dominating all year. The next biggest loss would be King if he chooses to leave early. Really like what our DL could look like next year even with the losses.

I agree. Blythe has been great this year and it is hard replacing a 3 year starter at center. If King leaves that loss will be huge but equally huge will be Fisher and Meier. With all the hype going to Ott, I think people are forgetting about Meier and Fisher is having an outstanding year. He is not playing like a first year starter.
 
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Iowa loses a lot of talent for sure, but at the same time we have a lot of experience coming back at nearly every position. In the past we have seen that it is very difficult to replace entire units. Think back to 2005 when we had lost our entire starting defensive line from 2004, or even last year when we lost our entire starting linebacking corp from 2013. Next year we will need to replace a lot of talent, but we will have Kittle back at TE, we will have 5 offensive linemen with significant starting experience, 3 of 4 starting defensive linemen (including Hesse as a starter), 2 of our 3 starting LB's (and also Bo Bower who was a starter last season) and 3 of 4 starting defensive backs.

This year we have seen incredible progression at most of our positions. If our returning players improve half as much as this year's group did over the last offseason, we are going to have a very good team.

This reminds me a lot of the set-up we had in the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Hopefully we can finish this season strong and then actually capitalize on our returning talent next year - which is something we obviously failed to do in 2010.
 
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Important thing to remember is that our underclassmen have played and played exceptionally well this year. Hesse, Wadley, J Smith, J Daniels, etc. only difference next year is our B1G schedule is tougher. But talent drop off should be minimal.
 
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I agree. Blythe has been great this year and it is hard replacing a 3 year starter at center. If King leaves that loss will be huge but equally huge will be Fisher and Meier. With all the hype going to Ott, I think people are forgetting about Meier and Fisher is having an outstanding year. He is not playing like a first year starter.

I agree, Blythe might be the biggest one on the whole team to replace, but the nice thing is, they will have 5 lineman with starting experience coming back, which I think is huge. Since Daniels has played 3 positions on the OL this year, that gives him great knowledge on line calls now, so it is my humble opinion that he will slide into the Center spot next year which would give them a Oline of: LT Myers, LG Welsh, C Daniels, RG Croston, RT Boetger! I tell you what, I'll take that Oline everyday of the week and twice on Saturdays. They could have 2 1000 yd. rushers next year behind that Oline!
Disclaimer: Barring injuries....
 
Important thing to remember is that our underclassmen have played and played exceptionally well this year. Hesse, Wadley, J Smith, J Daniels, etc. only difference next year is our B1G schedule is tougher. But talent drop off should be minimal.

Agree, and even guys like Snyder at safety and Nelson at DE have gotten lots of meaningful snaps and remember we have a LB who started about everygame last year that I'm confident is working his arse off to get back in that starting lineup next yr. in Fishers spot. I liked Snyder at FS when they talked him into walking on (and talked about it on here) and not trying to slight Lomax, but I think he will be a better FS than him and Miller and Greenwood, etc...Just a feeling. Reminds me of Constidine (I think I butchered his name, lol).
 
Out of the OP's list, several of those players do not start or even play very often. I like the young group we have coming up and coming in. We are in Great shape for the future. The KEY is going to be attrition. We've lost a lot to transfers over the years. We have to find a way to keep the flood gates closed and slow down the transfer rate..
 
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My friend in the athletic department told me a week ago that "the Paulsen twins could play now" and Snyder will be "a beast" at safety.
 
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Prefacing a lengthy post, so TL;DR - we do lose some of our better guys, but overall where our biggest loses appear to be (OL/DL) I think we'll be able to recover without major issues.


Based on the OP's list it does appear that we lose some of our top end guys, but as others mentioned we might be OK given the experience some younger guys are getting this year. I don't think anyone will ever confuse us for Alabama or Ohio St. plugging guys in year in year out, but I think overall we should be pretty comfortable going into next year.

DL - losing Ott and Meier will be big, but return Johnson/Bazata/Faith in the middle is huge. Ott being hurt this season is sort of a blessing for 2016 in that Hesse is getting some valuable experience. We should still be really good vs. the run.

LB - Fisher is having a great season. Not too concerned with Jewell and Niemann returning, plus Bower hopefully will continue to improve or at least we should be able to fill the 3rd LB spot with someone serviceable.

DB - Really hoping King stays. If he does, our secondary will be great. Not that losing Lomax will be easy to overcome, but I think we'll have enough talent to find someone. Also big is Josh Jackson has looked pretty good (imo) for his first time at CB and should only get better.

OL - Losing Blythe will suck big time. Losing Walsh will suck only slightly less. We do return our tackles, Croston (who I haven't been high on so far, but maybe he's a guard next year?), Daniels (Center or Guard?), and Welsh. Add in some young guys and I'm not too terribly concerned about OL next year.

WR/TE - Losing Tevaun will hurt, but hopefully Jerminic can step up. Otherwise we still have Vandeberg and McCarron, but really hoping another young guy can step up as a "playmaker" (Scheel???). HKC and Duzey leaving won't be good, but Kittle has gotten a lot of time this year and I'm hoping Wisnieski is ready to step up big time. As long as this group continues to be solid, and we have a young guy as our big play/separation WR, should be solid.

RB - Love Canzeri, but I don't think it will be that big of a hole to replace. I think losing Plewa and Cox are huge losses. We saw at times last year what happened when we didn't have at least a really solid FB lead blocking and both guys have been fantastic for us. Need someone to fill that void, even if it's not at the same high level, and Daniels/Wadley/Mitchell will have no problems.

QB - Don't think we'll have any issues here. Maybe just hopefully we can get Wiegers some more garbage time experience. Hopefully in each of the next 7 games (yup I went there) but I'll be OK with getting him some reps up 40 in on 11/14 and 11/27.

P/K - Both guys have really come on strong and are assets. Going to be tough to replace, and at this point it's a crapshoot what next year will be like.
 
Out of the OP's list, several of those players do not start or even play very often. I like the young group we have coming up and coming in. We are in Great shape for the future. The KEY is going to be attrition. We've lost a lot to transfers over the years. We have to find a way to keep the flood gates closed and slow down the transfer rate..

+100, as the experts (including myself, lol) have said, it was the attrition and not the recruiting that hurt Iowa for 2 or 3 years there. Someone had an article and report on how Iowa led the big10 in attrition for like 7 years (I think). I should try to find that again and remind some folks who still seem to want to go on about recruiting and lack of talent.
 
Yes, their OL the next couple of years could still be scary good. Getting their LT and RT back plus you have Daniels at his natural position of C...could be pretty salty group.
 
King >Blythe. The only guy on our roster who is irreplaceable is King. He changes the schemes we can run on defense and is a play maker. Without him, our defense would go from very good to pretty average.
 
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King >Blythe. The only guy on our roster who is irreplaceable is King. He changes the schemes we can run on defense and is a play maker. Without him, our defense would go from very good to pretty average.

The only problem with that theory is that they don't change the schemes they run on defense for or because of him. They run the same schemes year in and year out no matter who's on the field. This year is no different. I do agree he makes this defense better, no doubt, but one player isn't going to take a defense from very good to average. Why didn't the defense get pretty average when one of the top 4 DE's in the conference went down for the year? By your logic, we should have went from giving up 70 yds. a game rushing to 150 yards rushing a game losing someone of that caliber.

And I'll remind everyone, because some just don't seem to get it, they don't have a 'lockdown' corner. The have a right corner (King) and a left corner (Mabin). A lockdown corner would lineup anywhere their opponents best receiver lined up.
 
The only problem with that theory is that they don't change the schemes they run on defense for or because of him. They run the same schemes year in and year out no matter who's on the field. This year is no different. I do agree he makes this defense better, no doubt, but one player isn't going to take a defense from very good to average. Why didn't the defense get pretty average when one of the top 4 DE's in the conference went down for the year? By your logic, we should have went from giving up 70 yds. a game rushing to 150 yards rushing a game losing someone of that caliber.

And I'll remind everyone, because some just don't seem to get it, they don't have a 'lockdown' corner. The have a right corner (King) and a left corner (Mabin). A lockdown corner would lineup anywhere their opponents best receiver lined up.

P.S. Also by your logic, Our running game should've went to sheet when we were without our top two backs. King is very good, but he has gotten beat and he's not some kind of god. Check yourself there, junior:)
 
I think Josh Jackson could be the next star CB for Iowa. So even if King leaves I think Jackson will be a strong replacement. He has already made some good plays this year and he is very fast.
 
Prefacing a lengthy post, so TL;DR - we do lose some of our better guys, but overall where our biggest loses appear to be (OL/DL) I think we'll be able to recover without major issues.


Based on the OP's list it does appear that we lose some of our top end guys, but as others mentioned we might be OK given the experience some younger guys are getting this year. I don't think anyone will ever confuse us for Alabama or Ohio St. plugging guys in year in year out, but I think overall we should be pretty comfortable going into next year.

DL - losing Ott and Meier will be big, but return Johnson/Bazata/Faith in the middle is huge. Ott being hurt this season is sort of a blessing for 2016 in that Hesse is getting some valuable experience. We should still be really good vs. the run. Don't forget that Nelson and terlouw are getting lots of meaningful reps this year also. Nelson's development could be the key to how good that line can be next year. he is guite a specimen.

LB - Fisher is having a great season. Not too concerned with Jewell and Niemann returning, plus Bower hopefully will continue to improve or at least we should be able to fill the 3rd LB spot with someone serviceable.
Some of us have already said that there should be quite a battle for that 3rd sport, but no matter who wins it (i think it's bower), i believe we are in great shape there!
DB - Really hoping King stays. If he does, our secondary will be great. Not that losing Lomax will be easy to overcome, but I think we'll have enough talent to find someone. Also big is Josh Jackson has looked pretty good (imo) for his first time at CB and should only get better.

OL - Losing Blythe will suck big time. Losing Walsh will suck only slightly less. We do return our tackles, Croston (who I haven't been high on so far, but maybe he's a guard next year?), Daniels (Center or Guard?), and Welsh. Add in some young guys and I'm not too terribly concerned about OL next year. Don't know why your not 'high' on croston so far, but the coaches are (as am I) and they went into they season with myer 1A and croston 1B at left tackle (according to KF). I have said numerous times that croston will be the RG next year unless he beats out Myers, than Myers will be the RG since iowa puts their best 5 lineman on the field.

WR/TE - Losing Tevaun will hurt, but hopefully Jerminic can step up. Otherwise we still have Vandeberg and McCarron, but really hoping another young guy can step up as a "playmaker" (Scheel???). HKC and Duzey leaving won't be good, but Kittle has gotten a lot of time this year and I'm hoping Wisnieski is ready to step up big time. As long as this group continues to be solid, and we have a young guy as our big play/separation WR, should be solid. Kittles is a very good receiving TE, and don't forget Outsey who seems to be a really good receiving TE because his is on the field a lot. I believe that Wiz will be that big blocking TE we need and love.

RB - Love Canzeri, but I don't think it will be that big of a hole to replace. I think losing Plewa and Cox are huge losses. We saw at times last year what happened when we didn't have at least a really solid FB lead blocking and both guys have been fantastic for us. Need someone to fill that void, even if it's not at the same high level, and Daniels/Wadley/Mitchell will have no problems. I think they will go with a 2 headed monster at FB next year with Kelly (who is a beast and will be a good blocker) and Kulick, (who needs another 5-10lbs but gives them the best receiving FB the've had in a long time). I don't see a huge dropoff there.

QB - Don't think we'll have any issues here. Maybe just hopefully we can get Wiegers some more garbage time experience. Hopefully in each of the next 7 games (yup I went there) but I'll be OK with getting him some reps up 40 in on 11/14 and 11/27.

P/K - Both guys have really come on strong and are assets. Going to be tough to replace, and at this point it's a crapshoot what next year will be like.
You're right. and if some kids don't step up, this could be huge next year. They can't take a step back again on special teams.
 
I think Josh Jackson could be the next star CB for Iowa. So even if King leaves I think Jackson will be a strong replacement. He has already made some good plays this year and he is very fast.

Agreed, I want to see more of him.
 
Have a feeling that there will be a large list of candidates to fill Fischers spot at LB and wont necessarily be handed over to Bower. King gets put out on an island regularly so he does change the defensive scheme. No he is not a god but he has by far the most responsibility on the defense and no one is going to be perfect. Hopefully we will have some FB's/kickers ready to go
 
King >Blythe. The only guy on our roster who is irreplaceable is King. He changes the schemes we can run on defense and is a play maker. Without him, our defense would go from very good to pretty average.
I agree with this. King is taking away his half of the field for opposing offenses. I would be much more confident that we could find an adequate replacement for Blythe than we could for King.
 
You're right. and if some kids don't step up, this could be huge next year. They can't take a step back again on special teams.

I guess we can always say we need certain young guys to step up, which is true for any team. My personal feeling is based on what I've seen from some of the young guys last year and this year, I'm not too worried about the bottom completely falling out and confident the replacements should be at least decent.

But you're right about special teams. No idea what to expect out of Recinos at K, but as long as he is pretty consistent and makes the gimmes, I'll be happy. I'm worried if we don't have a good punter because the years we've had inconsistent punting get really stressful with how much our game philosophy tends to rely on playing smart football, limiting turnovers, and playing the field position battle until we can capitalize.

Otherwise I'd say my #1 concern honestly would be the losses of our FBs for the running game, and to a lesser extent, if King leaves early. Won't be the end of the world for either spots, but just my personal concerns.
 
Have a feeling that there will be a large list of candidates to fill Fischers spot at LB and wont necessarily be handed over to Bower. King gets put out on an island regularly so he does change the defensive scheme. No he is not a god but he has by far the most responsibility on the defense and no one is going to be perfect. Hopefully we will have some FB's/kickers ready to go

Nobody said the job was going to be 'handed over to him'. But he started a whole year as a RSF and is going to be bigger, stronger, faster, and A WHOLE LOT SMARTER, with the experience he has. I just said he is the front runner. I know everyone here beat this kid to death last year about how untalented he was, blah, blah, blah, but because of ATTRITION he had to play last year. Give the kid a chance. I still think he going to be a good one before he leaves.
 
The only problem with that theory is that they don't change the schemes they run on defense for or because of him. They run the same schemes year in and year out no matter who's on the field. This year is no different. I do agree he makes this defense better, no doubt, but one player isn't going to take a defense from very good to average. Why didn't the defense get pretty average when one of the top 4 DE's in the conference went down for the year? By your logic, we should have went from giving up 70 yds. a game rushing to 150 yards rushing a game losing someone of that caliber.

And I'll remind everyone, because some just don't seem to get it, they don't have a 'lockdown' corner. The have a right corner (King) and a left corner (Mabin). A lockdown corner would lineup anywhere their opponents best receiver lined up.
If you don't think that Phil Parker is calling different schemes than he normally would because King is in there, I think you aren't watching closely and are naive. Not saying that he has invented new schemes for King, just that he is putting more pressure on his corners using the same repertoire of schemes he has always had, applying them under different down/distance conditions than he would normally do.

The fact that the defense didn't get average when Ott got hurt only proves my point. King allows us to get coverage sacks and to call blitzes in situations we wouldn't normally.

Not sure what you point is about "lockdown" corner. It wasn't part of my discussion and really is academic. King is locking down his side of the field, even if he doesn't switch sides to cover the best WR. Call it what you want, that is what he is doing.
 
My friend in the athletic department told me a week ago that "the Paulsen twins could play now" and Snyder will be "a beast" at safety.
If this is true ... then holy $hit! I'm already pretty stoked about the prospects of the OL next year ... and if those guys can hop in and add quality depth, then the future of this OL is going to be absolutely nuts.

I hope that it's not the standard BS about guys passing the eyeball test ... I hope it's about how aggressive and tough the guys are ... and how well they're getting down the fundamentals on the practice field. If they're grading out well ... but are just being "banked" in order to preserve their red shirt ... that is awesome news.

Right now, we're looking at returning -

LT: Croston, Myers - each with starting experience at the position
RT: Boettger, Welsh, and Render - all having seen playing time, the former two having positional starts
RG: OPEN - I don't know who will fill the spot - probably somebody out of the trio of Croston, Myers, or Render
LG: Welsh, Daniels - each with starting position at the position
C: Daniels- nobody with starts or game action here (yet to my knowledge)

Guys who have seen semi-quality game action (more than one game) -
Ward (OG and OT), Ferguson (OT)

I see Steve Ferentz as possibly being a Tommy Gaul-like player at C. He could work his way into the picture if he gets an opportunity and makes the most of that opportunity.

Question: Does anybody know anything about Reynolds or Newborg? I've been under the impression that they're guys who could really develop into something special. This is mostly a vibe and/or impression ... anybody know anything "solid" about these guys?
 
King >Blythe. The only guy on our roster who is irreplaceable is King. He changes the schemes we can run on defense and is a play maker. Without him, our defense would go from very good to pretty average.
Both guys are integral cogs to the TEAM. Take away Blythe - our interior run game isn't nearly as effective. As a result, what once where 10+ gainers transform into 2 to 6 yard gainers. Take away King, then A LOT more pressure gets put on our safeties. Right now, we hardly even notice that we've been breaking in a new safety this year. Without King, mistakes by the safeties would be far more amplified. Furthermore, as others have indicated, the sack numbers would be lower too - some of the sacks we've gotten have been coverage sacks.

I could be wrong, but I think that guys like Beathard, King, and Johnson all feed off of each other. Just as this season has shown the potential for this team to be great .... in all frankness, the '16 squad might have the potential to be EVEN BETTER! That sort of excitement might be enough of an enticement for King to stick around.
 
Phil Steele says the #1 common denominator of successful college football teams is the number of seniors. Whether they start or not. No doubt this group's leadership is playing a HUGE role in our success this season. I salute them all.
 
Have a feeling that there will be a large list of candidates to fill Fischers spot at LB and wont necessarily be handed over to Bower. King gets put out on an island regularly so he does change the defensive scheme. No he is not a god but he has by far the most responsibility on the defense and no one is going to be perfect. Hopefully we will have some FB's/kickers ready to go

HE DOES NOT GET PUT ON AN ISLAND! THEY LINE UP DEPENDING ON THE OPPOSING OFFENSES FORMATION AND THEY REP EVERYT
I agree with this. King is taking away his half of the field for opposing offenses. I would be much more confident that we could find an adequate replacement for Blythe than we could for King.

OK, if he was 'taking away' half the field, he would have zero interceptions. So you need to read my posts about why he is successful!
 
Hearing Waechter and Newborg have been impressive on scout team. I see Waechter as a backup tackle and Newborg 2nd string guard. Both guys came off pretty significant injuries last November. Both lost 6 months of weight room growth.
 
The only problem with that theory is that they don't change the schemes they run on defense for or because of him. They run the same schemes year in and year out no matter who's on the field. This year is no different. I do agree he makes this defense better, no doubt, but one player isn't going to take a defense from very good to average. Why didn't the defense get pretty average when one of the top 4 DE's in the conference went down for the year? By your logic, we should have went from giving up 70 yds. a game rushing to 150 yards rushing a game losing someone of that caliber.

And I'll remind everyone, because some just don't seem to get it, they don't have a 'lockdown' corner. The have a right corner (King) and a left corner (Mabin). A lockdown corner would lineup anywhere their opponents best receiver lined up.
When they have a lockdown corner, like King is, the do in fact change their scheme in some occasions, depending on opponent and situation. Sometimes on a blitz the one high safety will shade opposite kings side as opposed to playing "center field" and readings eyes. This tells QB his read is Kings side and it ends up being broken up or picked. Also, King is in fact a lockdown corner because he locks down his side...who the hell said a lockdown corner has to switch sides....furthermore King does move around and plays slot reciever in our raider package and has at least 2 picks at least playing there
 
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I expect the team to be better next year. With the schedule the record may not be. I feel good about the o-line, but am concerned about the defensive pass rush from the ends. I like the upside of some of the young receivers and running backs. I think we'll be fine there. The backers will be much stronger than last year, and I like Mends. Would like to see stronger play in the defensive backfield. Hopefully that need isn't exposed in the upcoming weeks.
 
Since it appears we are all obviously excited about this year thus far and it appears many are excited about players that will be returning next year, my question(s) is are many posters going to continue to complain about our recruiting methods? Also, being that Iowa is always around the 30-50 ranked team yearly in recruiting can we all agree that basing a team (like Iowa) recruiting success off of "expert" analysis can be and the star ranking is not the best indicator of how the team will perform on the field.
 
Sneaking a peek. Sneaking a peak would be stealing a mountain top, which is more difficult. Or you're smuggling one of these...
0008390000618_A
 
Since it appears we are all obviously excited about this year thus far and it appears many are excited about players that will be returning next year, my question(s) is are many posters going to continue to complain about our recruiting methods? Also, being that Iowa is always around the 30-50 ranked team yearly in recruiting can we all agree that basing a team (like Iowa) recruiting success off of "expert" analysis can be and the star ranking is not the best indicator of how the team will perform on the field.

The staff have always been very good with identifying and developing talent, the issue we've had is player retention. Nearly 50% of the recruiting classes from 2008 through 2010 departed with eligibility left, that is a major blow for a developmental program. If that issue has been addressed, recruiting rankings don't mean nearly as much to me as we don't need a half dozen to 10 freshman to come in and fill the gaps. However, it does seem the past few years we've had fewer recruits that had double digit offers from Power 5 conference schools. We could generally count on a handful of recruits each year that were wanted by the power schools...that seems to have dropped to one or two each year...perhaps with our success this year we'll see an increase in the 2017 class.
 
Nobody needs to read any of your posts
If they want to LEARN anything about Iowa's defense they do, since I know more about it than anyone on here. But people on here don't want to learn, they just want to see their words on the screen and want attention.
 
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