I'm not sure there are many arguments against an upper half B1G finish and 2nd round of tourney being Iowa's ceiling.
So if Iowa can't get to the sweet 16 with the NPOTY...
- Thread starter General Tso
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Tourney is always guard oriented... what was the last team that won it all where best player was a big?
Duke 2014-15 --> Jahlil Okafor (1st team All American, ACC Player of the Year, National Freshman of the Year)
Kentucky 2011-12 --> Anthony Davis (1st team All American, SEC Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year)
To those who haven’t already figured out Fran’s ceiling, I don’t know what to tell ya...
Sometimes, you have to get a bit lucky in the tourney too. Look at Creighton, UCLA, Bama, Houston, or Nova, they didn't really have to beat anyone. Our seed was great, gave us hope we could move to sweet 16, but Oregon was phenomenal. What a terrible matchup.
This. This is the right answer. The tournament is one big giant crapshoot. Heck if OSU loses to Michigan in BTT we are in their spot. We beat Oral Roberts and then we beat Florida. The narrative around here is quite different. We just got done playing a team that should have been a 3 or 4 seed who was completely rested. Very similar to how Illinois had to play a 3 or 4 seed in Round 2.
I don't recall Iowa EVER, even once, in my lifetime, benefiting from an upset in their region. It's all chalk. Every single time.
Even this year - the one and only team to bow out due to Covid was of course the lower seeded team right next to us, so no chance of an upset. VCU probably doesn't beat Oregon anyway, but we'll never know, will we?
The committee hosed us (again) with a brutal second round draw. Let's face it - the selection committee will never do us any favors, so we're just going to have to have a team that's good enough to overcome that.
Oregon won the Pac12 regular season, and after watching USC destroy Kansas, Oregon St beat Okie st, UCLA beat MSU and Syracuse beat SDSU and WVU, maybe we just tip our cap and move on. We don't have to burn down our house.
It's not obvious to everyone yet that aside from Garza and maybe JW we had less talent on the floor than Oregon and less athleticism than most teams in the tournament? Even Luka who I love and who can be a machine offensively struggles mightily at times on the defensive end. It's not has fault. He just doesn't possess that athleticism. Iowa doesn't have an elite player in the starting lineup who can play both ends of the floor on the team. Elite teams have several. That's just a fact.
If you restrict to looking at times a team goes S16 or farther (because if you lose in the 2nd round it's hard to blame the lack of upset in only one other game), Iowa had to play chalk in 1999 and 1988 but not in 1987 when as the 2 seed they got to play 6 seed Oklahoma instead of 3 seed Pitt in the S16. Seems they have been a bit unlucky to be sitting in the 7/10 and 8/9 games too often where the 1 or 2 seed rarely lose in game 1.
It'll be awesome when the day comes where there aren't so many teams that are 'terrible matchups' for Iowa.
I guarantee ya the players know who should be getting starter minutes. Just looked at cmacs stat line and couldn't beleive how dismal they were, This begs to ask if fran's ego is to big to bench his kid. scored 16 pts in the last 11 games did i see that right 16 in a 11 games. 26 personal fouls. So a starter averages more personal fouls than pts in last 11 games. Fran got what he deserved a beat down. if he can't figure out a balance btw off and def. he really needs to go.
Ok, that's true on OU in 1987. That was a really salty 6 seed, though. I remember noticing that OU was a 1 seed in 1988 and 1989, so it seemed they were coming into their own at that point. They were probably a better team than Pitt..
You missed a few, though. Iowa also played chalk in:
1989 - NC State (5) , loss
1993 - Wake Forest (5), loss
1996 - Arizona (3), loss
I'd also point out 1991, 1992 and 1997 as well but those were 1-2 seed opponents, so I won't complain about those. Ditto for every other tournament appearance since Alford - think we've been on the 7/10 line every time until this year.
This is exactly right. You don’t win in the dance without damn good guards. Basketball is basically a guard oriented game. Luka was great but needed a better (more athletic) supporting cast.
Fran has peaked as Iowa’s coach. This is it. Player of the year, veteran roster ... this was it. This was his chance to show he knows what to do with the talent he has.
If Fran couldn’t make it past the first round with this team... it ain’t happening folks... at least while Fran is here
If Fran couldn’t make it past the first round with this team... it ain’t happening folks... at least while Fran is here
Also, not all 1 and 2 seeds are created equal. Second round vs. Duke in '91 and '92 when they went on to win it all. Second round vs. Villanova in '16 when they went on to win it all. Iowa had a darn good team in '97, got stuck with an 8 seed opposite defending national champ Kentucky; first they destroy 9-seed Virginia, then gave Kentucky the toughest game they had to play until they eventually lost the national championship game; chances are Iowa gets to the Sweet 16 if they are put anywhere else in the bracket. Iowa gets a 7 seed opposite buzz saw Gonzaga in 15, while Michigan St got the same matchup with a rather weak Virginia team, whom they beat. Also, I'd say that our matchup with Oregon this year was a tad tougher than Houston and Alabama's second round opponents...
However, Iowa has gotten 2 conspicuous breaks that they failed to take advantage of -
1)The First Four matchup in '14 - Iowa blows the game against Tennessee, who then cruises to the Sweet 16 by destroying both weak 6-seed UMass and then 14-seed Mercer, who had a miracle win vs. Duke.
2) Last Tourney second round vs. Tennessee. The Vols were the weakest 2-seed and Iowa wins that game if they decide to show up in the first half.
Tourney woes continue. I don't agree, however, that Iowa has reached their "ceiling" as a program, but I DO think that they have reached their ceiling with Fran. I appreciate his taking us out of the doldrums, but I think it's pretty obvious that we've reached our peak under him. The right coach can do it, IMO. The problem is, of course, you have to find him and hire him. Most coaches are given a 7-8 year chance to move a program to the next level, but Iowa just finished year 11 with Fran and he's been extended for the foreseeable future. I like the guy, but why he has earned Ferentz-level latitude is a bit of a mystery to me.
To be fair, a lot of the personal fouls Connor picked up were intentional because he was trying to keep a player, who had beaten another Hawkeye, from scoring a layup.
26 fouls is not the problem. Averaging 1 point on 15% shooting, 3 rebounds and 3 assists in 23 minutes over the last 10 games is bad. Really bad. If it were all about production he would not have been playing those minutes. Fran finally relented and CMac played the fewest minutes of the year the last 2 games.
Lots of talk about "Fran's" ceiling.
Well, Iowa's last 6 coaches have made it to the S16 five times in 50 years. Even Lute only did it twice in 9 years. Four of the six coaches never made it while at Iowa.
I guess it must be hard.
Well, Iowa's last 6 coaches have made it to the S16 five times in 50 years. Even Lute only did it twice in 9 years. Four of the six coaches never made it while at Iowa.
I guess it must be hard.
i specifically excluded any team that did not at least get to the sweet 16 because seems kinda pointless. Not many chances for upsets to help you out when you get bounced on the first weekend.
Fran deserves much credit and has earned our gratitude for bringing the program back from the Lickliter abyss, something I wasn’t sure was possible. I honestly thought Iowa basketball was dead after those three years. I think the relative speed at which he did it, coupled with his success at multiple other schools, had many of us thinking early on (myself included) that he was “the man” who could finally break through the Tom Davis ceiling and get us to where we think Lute might have taken us had he stayed.
That being said, it’s been eleven years now, and to me it’s clear what Fran is and what he isn’t. He has some definite strengths that will always translate into us doing some good things and having some good teams, but he also has clear weaknesses that will limit our success to pretty much what we’ve seen to this point. It is what it is.
We know that things can definitely be worse—much worse. Could they be better? Probably, but it wouldn’t be easy and there are no guarantees. And it’s certainly not happening with Gary Barta sitting in the AD’s chair.
So in the meantime, I continue to follow Iowa Basketball from a slight distance, and allow myself to be a bit more emotionally invested when August comes around and the boyz take the field in Kinnick...
I think it's kind of a pick your poison scenario. Iowa had a much better regular season than I was expecting but got boat raced in the 2nd round again. Unless you are one of the true elite teams, it's almost like you have to accept a regular season that may be up and down but good enough to make the tournament and then hope your team catches lighting in a bottle for a couple weeks.
I think if Iowa played Oregon 10 times, they would go 0-10. I think the same about USC, UCLA and pretty much everyone else in the Sweet 16 except for ORU and Loyola-Chicago. Fortunately Altman called off the dogs early or that could have been as bad as USC-KU.
I think if Iowa played Oregon 10 times, they would go 0-10. I think the same about USC, UCLA and pretty much everyone else in the Sweet 16 except for ORU and Loyola-Chicago. Fortunately Altman called off the dogs early or that could have been as bad as USC-KU.
25 years of no Sweet 16 appearances should be enough but I’d give it 5 more years just to be sure.
The rest of the roster was not very good. Wieskamp is/was a good player. The rest, especially with Frederick injured, not that great. If you were to pick up teams from the 10 starters between Oregon and Iowa, Garza is taken first, then Oregon had about 3 guys, then maybe Wieskamp, then the rest of the Oregon guys, then Iowa's. They had 5 of the best 7 players in the game.
Exactly! Iowa’s regions always go all chalk besides when Iowa got beat as a 3 seed. Iowa’s never been that 5 seed that got a 13 or the 6 that got a 14.
Exactly, injuries also play a huge factor. If CJ, Nunge, and Weezy were completely healthy, who knows what happens.
Wow, haven't you noticed every B1G team got knocked out except Michigan. That is not bad luck, that is a conference that is poor in guard play and too reliant on Big Man B-ball. The B1G was overseeded, including Iowa.
Oregon should have been the 2 seed and Iowa the 7 seed, and the matchup would still have happened and result would have been the same. That might have been one of the worst defensive efforts I have every seen.. Iowa looked like the Washington Generals vs globe trotters.
It Took Fran 11 years to make it to a BTT quarter final. Given another 10 years, he might win a BTT and or make it to sweet16. Fran blew his chance for a special season with a POY coming back....didn't surround him with any guys in the starting lineup that could play defense. He owns the lack of defense...certainly the lackluster zone defense has been his calling card since he got to Iowa.
that wouldn't matter,Oregon is far better athletic than we were and better coach also play better defense which Fran doesn't know how to coach
You really believe the committee is out to make the Hawks look bad? It would appear you genuinely believe that. I reject this notion wholeheartedly... sigh. But I’ll agree we need a better team.
Not intentionally, no, but we always seem to get placed in the overall #1 seed's region, with a particularly "tough for the seed" 2nd round opponent. A couple years ago, Cincinnati in Dayton.. Did overcome that one and win, though. 1996 - Arizona match up in Tempe. Etc.
When's the last time Iowa even got to play in the Midwest region? 1991? Not counting this year with the entire tournament being played in Indiana. If it was any other year we'd have certainly been sent to NY or CA or something. And that's with the whole "pod system" thing where they try to keep teams close to home. Never seems to happen for us.
Intentionally or not, the committee never gives us a good draw.
Maybe by playing in the 1st round Oregon has to exert a little effort to get past the 1st round in beating VCU.... Maybe they go nuts against them and then have an off game against us. Like a commentator said, they got to go straight to prepping for Iowa, no evening of decompressing after beating VCU, resting, and a little feeling good about a win in the 1st round.
I said in another thread... Fran just has to keep building on this. GET to the tourney as a 6 or better seed often enough and you'll win a couple games eventually. Can't win if you don't make it though.
Also, sucks to think about this same group missing a chance last year... another opportunity to have a decent seed and games falling your way.
Luck of the draw. Teams advanced to S16 by beating teams we had beaten in big 10 action. Others got Rutgers, WI, etc, while we got Oregon. Now winning solves all, but didn’t happen.
Also..
Specific to this game thread.... A lot of teams make it to the S16 WITHOUT the NPOTY.
Absolutely sucks that we failed to make the sweet 16, but we got a 2nd round matchup against a team that wasn't going to lose to many teams on that day.
Love Garza, but we have young talent that is going to grow and improve. (Looking specifically at the Murray Bros, PMac, Perkins, Ullis). If Joe T. can find a way to play under control.... We'll have an athletic team... 3 pt Shooters might be a concern, if Wezzy leaves.
Specific to this game thread.... A lot of teams make it to the S16 WITHOUT the NPOTY.
Absolutely sucks that we failed to make the sweet 16, but we got a 2nd round matchup against a team that wasn't going to lose to many teams on that day.
Love Garza, but we have young talent that is going to grow and improve. (Looking specifically at the Murray Bros, PMac, Perkins, Ullis). If Joe T. can find a way to play under control.... We'll have an athletic team... 3 pt Shooters might be a concern, if Wezzy leaves.
Spot on - I saw glimpses of the athletic gap during the year (i.e. IL games) and had a bad feeling it would come to roost in The Dance. Good programs are able to load up on athletic studs and then supplement their team with sharp shooters. Whether by choice or not, Iowa seems to do the exact opposite. I know we will never have a roster full of 4 and 5 star players, so it comes down to recruiting solid players who have a chip on their should and play SMOTHERING defense. Maybe a joe T type, but the guy is literally on ice skates most games so I am not sure he will be the PG that leads Iowa deep in any tourney (NCAA or NIT).
