So we're almost a month past the end of Sturgis
- Thread starter 93hawkeye
- Start date
You're ignoring the thousands of people who go early to setup and the early attenders. This event does not start on the opening day - there's a lot going on long before that.
I would say most of the data would more likely be caused by the border becoming fully open to Delta entry, a bit of time for those illegal delta carrying migrants entering to spread across the country and then the timing it takes for them to fully infect the population. I would think that has as much to do with it as anything.
Sure, if you lack critical thought and live in a vacuum. On August 13th there were 74 hospitalizations. Sturgis began August 6th. I understand some people arrive during the week leading up to it. Working backwards, the standard time it takes to contract COVID then be hospitalized is 2-3 weeks. Even at the low point (2 weeks), very few of the 74 could be attributed directly to Sturgis because it would be a full week prior to the start. That should be your starting point.
Also, this is SD as a whole. The two counties where Sturgis actually take place are up there in hospitalizations, but both align with the figures in November of 2020. Both were coincidently at 36 hospitalization the week of August 13th-- which would mean almost all of these people were infected prior to July 31st, a full week before Sturgis officially kicked off. Since then they are at 87 and 95 hospitalizations. Even if we want to attribute 100% of that increase to Sturgis, which is foolish since it was gradually increasing all July in both counties, that would be 2.5X.
Good thing we have this handy map!!!
Yes, thank you. South Dakota actually looks like one of the safest places for a giant motorcycle rally.
I would agree with on that. That's where they shipped them to. Didn't want to leave them in the desert to die, so shipped them to better climates that were close. Makes all the sense in the world to anyone who doesn't look at data based on party affiliation. Thanks for helping me make my case.Good thing we have this handy map!!!
I posted the numbers for you 1+ weeks before Sturgis and a few weeks after.
Last week of July: 30-35 hospitalizations
First Week of September: 220-230 hospitalizations
Remember, it takes a week or two for cases to ramp up, and then another couple weeks for hospitalizations to ramp up.
You continue to ignore this.
No, it's not "where they shipped them to". Those are home-grown cases, buddy.
That is exactly my point. Those 35 hospitalizations from July 30th would have been from those who most likely contracted COVID from July 9-16 (some may have been earlier). What you are ignoring are those that contracted it from the 15th-30th, a full week prior to Sturgis, which would have accounted for nearly all of those hospitalizations from August 1st to August 21st (which was 128). The only noise would be between the 15th and 21st.
Nope. I dated a couple super spreaders after my divorce.I highly recommend it as a way to mend a wounded heart.
I just can't believe that anyone would ever think that Joe would cherry pick certain stats and ignore others...truly mind bottling. /sarc
^^^^ Folks, this poster is an example of when your mom and dad are also your cousins.
Uh huh.
Thanks little brother.
Yes
That was their state-wide baseline number. And it was fairly stable most of the spring/summer.
THEN, it "blew up" to 7.5x that much <4 weeks after Sturgis. It ain't Rocket Salad here, bud.
It would certainly have eventually increased cases. But as already pointed out, the case jumps in SD are vastly different from the gradual ramp-ups seen elsewhere.
That is the signal of some other 'super-spreader event', not just a gradual trickling-in of new cases.
- Numbers were "fairly stable most of the spring/summer" across the US
- The numbers have been "blowing up" across the US at this same time
- Reason: a lot of it to do with Delta variant introduction
- You don't contract COVID on Monday and end up in the hospital on Tuesday.
- You look at the hospitalized numbers 2-3 weeks after an event like Sturgis to get your baseline for what it looked like before COVID since it takes 2-3 weeks form someone to contract COVID and for them to become hospitalized.
- You can't say someone who contracted COVID on July 25th and was hospitalized on August 14th has anything to do with Sturgis yet you are attributing by applying it to your 7.5x math.
- I'd argue that anyone and everyone who was hospitalized up until August 15th would be unrelated to Sturgis since they would have contracted it at least a week before. I would also argue that many who were hospitalized between August 16 and 21 would be unrelated, again due to the amount of time being 2-3 weeks.
- Your baseline falls between the number hospitalized between the 15th and 21st and even then growth could be attributed to a number of sources outside unrelated to Sturgis (example: Mt Rushmore's busiest months being July and August.)
That's nearly 12 times the number of people that died in those age ranges from the flu in 2018-2019, genius.
Super hot take surge-on general.
22,000 ICE detainees vaccinated and 6,000 have declined the vaccine. Our illegal immigrant population has the highest vaccination rate in the entire country, nearly 79% have at least one vaccination dose.
But the immigrants are the problem because, well because your brain is so damn small and your news sources obviously suck.
I really don't want to get involved here, but your numbers are the ones who were caught. I'd guess that's a tiny fraction of the total number.
Btw I'm not saying I prescribe to the posters point that you were rebutting. Just saying your numbers are pretty much pointless.
No doubt there are some that make their way in without being apprehended, good news is that Mexico is vaccinating the immigrants on their side of the border as well. Every little bit helps. But this story that illiegal immigrants are responsible for the numbers we’re seeing now is patently false by any measure. The problem is us, not them.
I agree 100% except it would be naive to think there's only a small percentage that are getting through the border.
Your small brain spelled illegal wrong.
No; they DID NOT "blow up at the same time".
South Dakotas did not ramp up like most other areas. They spiked. Literally right after Sturgis.
No, hospitalizations generally occur between 2-3 weeks after people have contracted it. Meaning most anyone hospitalized before August 21 would have contracted it before Sturgis (including the week leading up to it). This would be a spike regardless, but not attributed to Sturgis like you’re trying to convey with your 7.5x post Sturgis comment.
No; they'd have contracted it in the week leading up to Sturgis and that week.
I quoted the numbers the last week of July vs. beginning of September for you. 4-5 weeks AFTER people started showing up.
Those are in the graphs linked for you, but you continue to ignore them.
Exactly, and you still can’t see this. You quoted the number of hospitalizations the last week of July, but hospitalizations the first half of August would have been contracted before Sturgis and thus not anything to do with Sturgis.
And MOST of the ramp-up is the latter half of August.
If you have "another event" to tie them to, post it. It ain't Rushmore. The runup is tied to the Sturgis counties. Look it up.
U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker
Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how Lawrence County, South Dakota is doing.
covidactnow.org
See that jump, right at Sturgis? What else explains that?
Your comment was on hospitalizations.U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker
Covid Act Now has real-time tracking of your community's COVID risk level. Explore how Lawrence County, South Dakota is doing.
See that jump, right at Sturgis? What else explains that?
