Here are some battleground states and what their situation should be by the end of the night, using information from the NYTimes Article that outlines the counting rules in each one.
Basically, by the end of the night I think we will know the results for: Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. Trump needs every one of these. Wisconsin we probably won't know the results until early morning (3/6am). Georgia we will know the next day. Michigan and Pennsylvania won't be known for some time.
So if, on election night, Biden has won Florida or Ohio it's all over. If he as won Arizona, North Carolina, or Iowa, things will be looking very good but we probably will need to wait at least a few days. If he loses them all then things could get ugly.
Florida (29)
If Trump wins then we have a contest. If Biden wins, Trump's path to victory is very small. Florida is counting early votes in advance, and will report those first; so this is NOT a state where Trump should jump to an early lead. Hopefully this means his opportunity to throw out the vote here is limited. Hopefully we know the winner by 9:30pm Eastern.
The 538 currently shows Biden with a 68% chance of winning.
Arizona (11)
At 10PM Eastern they should release most of the early voting total. Because they are allowed to begin the counting early, we should have a good projection for Arizona by the end of the night.
538 shows Biden with 71% chance of winning.
Georgia (16)
The state has said it could be a couple of days before the counting is done. There is no particular order between when mail-in votes are counted versus in-person. Since GA is a toss-up, I don't expect us to have any idea who has won on election night.
538 calls this a toss-up
North Carolina (15)
Possibly the first battleground state whose results will be known, with most results reported at 7:30pm. Like Florida, early votes are counted in advance and will be the first ones reported, which is good. They expect 98% to be counted by the end of the evening.
538 gives Biden a 65% chance of winning.
Wisconsin (10)
It appears that most of the state will report totals by 10pm Eastern. However, Milwaukee County is expected to not know their results until 3am to 6am. So Trump might be ahead at 10pm, then lose it by early morning. The state legislature is controlled by the GOP, but with a Democrat governor and a possible large Biden lead, the chances for a Trump "steal" seems unlikely.
538 gives Biden a 94% chance of winning.
Michigan (16)
They cannot start counting mail-in votes until election day, and in-person results will be reported first. So Trump could be in the lead on election night then watch it go away over the next week. Expect final results in a week, but we might know much earlier if Biden wins handily. A Democratic governor hopefully decreases the chances of Trump having the results thrown out.
538 gives Biden a 95 chance of winning
Ohio (18)
Ohio's results ought to be known by the end of the night, unless they are so close (a possibility) that a recount is needed. They will count and report early votes first, which is always a good thing. First results will start at 8pm Eastern. If Biden were to win this one it is game over.
538 calls this a tossup.
Iowa (6)
Iowa has until November 9th to count all votes, so unless Trump has a comfortable lead on election night we won't know the results for a week.
538 gives Trump a 61% chance of winning Iowa
Texas (38)
With a lead in the polls and this GOP-controlled state actively working to throw out Democrat votes, this is not really a battleground state, imo. However, if Biden is actually leading election night that would be all she wrote. We will probably have a good idea where Texas stands by 10pm, and counting should be complete the next day.
538 gives Trump a 61% chance of winning Texas
Pennsylvania (20)
As luck would have it, the single most important state is probably the last state whose results will be known. Mail-in votes cannot be counted until election day, so Trump is likely to be leading on election night and it will take probably four or five days for all votes to be counted. While the governor is a Democrat, the legislature is controlled by the GOP and you know for certain this is a state Trump will challenge. The best possible outcome is that Biden actually leads on election night; or he wins a state like Florida or Ohio to make a challenge seem useless. Note that currently Democrats have return 3x as many mail-in ballots as Republicans. So a Biden lead on election night is unlikely, but if it is there it would be insurmountable.
If the election is not decided by November 4th, PA is going to be a warzone.
538 gives Biden an 87% chance of winning PA if the voters are allowed to decide.
Basically, by the end of the night I think we will know the results for: Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. Trump needs every one of these. Wisconsin we probably won't know the results until early morning (3/6am). Georgia we will know the next day. Michigan and Pennsylvania won't be known for some time.
So if, on election night, Biden has won Florida or Ohio it's all over. If he as won Arizona, North Carolina, or Iowa, things will be looking very good but we probably will need to wait at least a few days. If he loses them all then things could get ugly.
Florida (29)
If Trump wins then we have a contest. If Biden wins, Trump's path to victory is very small. Florida is counting early votes in advance, and will report those first; so this is NOT a state where Trump should jump to an early lead. Hopefully this means his opportunity to throw out the vote here is limited. Hopefully we know the winner by 9:30pm Eastern.
The 538 currently shows Biden with a 68% chance of winning.
Arizona (11)
At 10PM Eastern they should release most of the early voting total. Because they are allowed to begin the counting early, we should have a good projection for Arizona by the end of the night.
538 shows Biden with 71% chance of winning.
Georgia (16)
The state has said it could be a couple of days before the counting is done. There is no particular order between when mail-in votes are counted versus in-person. Since GA is a toss-up, I don't expect us to have any idea who has won on election night.
538 calls this a toss-up
North Carolina (15)
Possibly the first battleground state whose results will be known, with most results reported at 7:30pm. Like Florida, early votes are counted in advance and will be the first ones reported, which is good. They expect 98% to be counted by the end of the evening.
538 gives Biden a 65% chance of winning.
Wisconsin (10)
It appears that most of the state will report totals by 10pm Eastern. However, Milwaukee County is expected to not know their results until 3am to 6am. So Trump might be ahead at 10pm, then lose it by early morning. The state legislature is controlled by the GOP, but with a Democrat governor and a possible large Biden lead, the chances for a Trump "steal" seems unlikely.
538 gives Biden a 94% chance of winning.
Michigan (16)
They cannot start counting mail-in votes until election day, and in-person results will be reported first. So Trump could be in the lead on election night then watch it go away over the next week. Expect final results in a week, but we might know much earlier if Biden wins handily. A Democratic governor hopefully decreases the chances of Trump having the results thrown out.
538 gives Biden a 95 chance of winning
Ohio (18)
Ohio's results ought to be known by the end of the night, unless they are so close (a possibility) that a recount is needed. They will count and report early votes first, which is always a good thing. First results will start at 8pm Eastern. If Biden were to win this one it is game over.
538 calls this a tossup.
Iowa (6)
Iowa has until November 9th to count all votes, so unless Trump has a comfortable lead on election night we won't know the results for a week.
538 gives Trump a 61% chance of winning Iowa
Texas (38)
With a lead in the polls and this GOP-controlled state actively working to throw out Democrat votes, this is not really a battleground state, imo. However, if Biden is actually leading election night that would be all she wrote. We will probably have a good idea where Texas stands by 10pm, and counting should be complete the next day.
538 gives Trump a 61% chance of winning Texas
Pennsylvania (20)
As luck would have it, the single most important state is probably the last state whose results will be known. Mail-in votes cannot be counted until election day, so Trump is likely to be leading on election night and it will take probably four or five days for all votes to be counted. While the governor is a Democrat, the legislature is controlled by the GOP and you know for certain this is a state Trump will challenge. The best possible outcome is that Biden actually leads on election night; or he wins a state like Florida or Ohio to make a challenge seem useless. Note that currently Democrats have return 3x as many mail-in ballots as Republicans. So a Biden lead on election night is unlikely, but if it is there it would be insurmountable.
If the election is not decided by November 4th, PA is going to be a warzone.
538 gives Biden an 87% chance of winning PA if the voters are allowed to decide.
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