Suburban Women Swing Toward Backing Republicans for Congress

Colonoscopy

HR All-American
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People have been voting against their interests for as long as elections have been around, because feels.

Political analysts have been wrongly assessing people's interests and reasoning as long as elections have been around, because bias.

Both are true.
 

BioHawk

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I'm apt to believe this poll more. If there was a 3-4 point swing in a few months, I would put some stock in the shift. But a 15 point swing? That is incredibly hard to believe especially since the inflation problem has been around this entire time.
The thing is, I have seen multiple polls showing this so either there are certain polls who have collectively decided to blow smoke up people's asses or something is happening. It could be that polling isn't showing the youth vote accurately....or that it is. It seems to me that when polling has failed over the last several election cycles it tends to call things more progressive than they end up being though so that's why I'm running on the 15 point swing is real. I just don't think the economy is the reason why there was that swing. The economy was pretty much the same a month ago. What I do know is that about a month ago airwaves started getting slammed with ads about how Democrats make crime worse. I didn't think much of it until I had conversations with at least 4 different women who were suddenly all terrified of crime.
 

Colonoscopy

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The thing is, I have seen multiple polls showing this so either there are certain polls who have collectively decided to blow smoke up people's asses or something is happening. It could be that polling isn't showing the youth vote accurately....or that it is. It seems to me that when polling has failed over the last several election cycles it tends to call things more progressive than they end up being though so that's why I'm running on the 15 point swing is real. I just don't think the economy is the reason why there was that swing. The economy was pretty much the same a month ago. What I do know is that about a month ago airwaves started getting slammed with ads about how Democrats make crime worse. I didn't think much of it until I had conversations with at least 4 different women who were suddenly all terrified of crime.
Could be that abortion as an issue only could compete so long against what are traditionally very meaningful voting variables in crime and the economy.

For both of the two before mentioned items you could easily argue that we've seen much worse. But... that's not how most people think about it. It's more so compared to where you were a few years ago, in all likelihood.

You've had SF and NYC bring in regimes more focused on crime -- Adams in NYC was the law & order guy. Those are liberal strongholds.

My point in all of this... who cares what you think should matter... Democrat strategists need to understand what does matter to people and then they need to adjust accordingly. I just hope they're doing that and they're not prone to analyze this stuff like a lot of the dems on this board do.
 

MitchLL

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As an example, if you're a female living in the State of Georgia, how could you justify a vote for Walker?

I would seriously love to hear the logic.
 
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Colonoscopy

HR All-American
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As an example, if you're a female living in the State of Georgia, how could you justify a vote for Walker?

I would seriously love to hear the logic.

Aren't the anti-abortionist still a fairly sizeable chunk of the population? And they're pretty split evenly male/female. Georgia is a pretty religious state. It seems like you'd have lots of them.

Add on to that... some probably don't favor (what I assume) are Walker's extremist views on the topic... but... maybe they really like republicans otherwise and maybe they, personally, aren't at much risk where Walker's policy is concerned.

I think that's how people vote. What affects them personally, and then, on balance, who gets it done.

Why did so many women vote for a chauvinist pig in Trump? On balance the good outweighed the bad. (in their view)

Why did more latinos start flocking to Trump in 2020 and republicans in general? Same consideration.

This isn't complicated stuff.
 

franklinman

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no idea, not really the point. they dont care about abortion rights because it doesn't matter to them.
I don't believe that, many have daughters, grandchildren nieces, friends, that may need the services later in life. The cons stupidly went way overboard on this.
 
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MitchLL

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Aren't the anti-abortionist still a fairly sizeable chunk of the population? And they're pretty split evenly male/female. Georgia is a pretty religious state. It seems like you'd have lots of them.

Add on to that... some probably don't favor (what I assume) are Walker's extremist views on the topic... but... maybe they really like republicans otherwise and maybe they, personally, aren't at much risk where Walker's policy is concerned.

I think that's how people vote. What affects them personally, and then, on balance, who gets it done.

Why did so many women vote for a chauvinist pig in Trump? On balance the good outweighed the bad. (in their view)

Why did more latinos start flocking to Trump in 2020 and republicans in general? Same consideration.

This isn't complicated stuff.
Trump appealed to women???

LOL

Some women are jealous of other women, especially powerful women.

While Hillary Clinton would likely have been a good President, there's probably a fairly large segment of the population that would never vote for a female...and most of them are white women south of the Mason Dixon line.
 
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BioHawk

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Could be that abortion as an issue only could compete so long against what are traditionally very meaningful voting variables in crime and the economy.

For both of the two before mentioned items you could easily argue that we've seen much worse. But... that's not how most people think about it. It's more so compared to where you were a few years ago, in all likelihood.

You've had SF and NYC bring in regimes more focused on crime -- Adams in NYC was the law & order guy. Those are liberal strongholds.

My point in all of this... who cares what you think should matter... Democrat strategists need to understand what does matter to people and then they need to adjust accordingly. I just hope they're doing that and they're not prone to analyze this stuff like a lot of the dems on this board do.
You missed the point of my post. I wasn't saying what these people should be concerned about, I was saying that it wasn't until Republicans slammed the airwaves and the right wing media apparattus about crime that these people started to become concerned about it. It's not that Democratic strategists don't understand, they just don't understand how to get people to care about the things they care about. Republicans are experts at getting people to care about the things they want them to care about while getting them to ignore the things they know people won't like. Like gutting social security and medicare. What's even more amazing is that after they gut those programs they'll be able to convince those same people who were fooled into voting for Republicans in the first place that it's Democrats fault.
 

Pepperman

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no idea, not really the point. they dont care about abortion rights because it doesn't matter to them.

I know how old you are, so it makes me wonder why you’re living with a bunch of late 20s or early 30s (apparently single) women in your suburb?
 

Colonoscopy

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You missed the point of my post. I wasn't saying what these people should be concerned about, I was saying that it wasn't until Republicans slammed the airwaves and the right wing media apparattus about crime that these people started to become concerned about it. It's not that Democratic strategists don't understand, they just don't understand how to get people to care about the things they care about. Republicans are experts at getting people to care about the things they want them to care about while getting them to ignore the things they know people won't like. Like gutting social security and medicare. What's even more amazing is that after they gut those programs they'll be able to convince those same people who were fooled into voting for Republicans in the first place that it's Democrats fault.

I'm sure the crime problem has been exaggerated plenty by certain conservative media.

The problem you have to contend with, though, is that exaggeration != no problem at all.

There could be very real problems. And I think that's going on with crime in particular.

You don't get to write off a problem, or people caring about it because Fox news gives it poor treatment.

I'm sure they started in on that angle once that angle presented itself. (when crime started going up, noticeably) Which is also when people would've started to notice as well, naturally.

I think what you're left with is trying to figure out how much of the concern expressed by people is solely because of exaggeration in media... which isn't easy.

But get it wrong, declare it a bunch of hyperbole and all of a sudden you look out of touch. I think that's a pitfall dems have to avoid.
 

FAUlty Gator

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I guess that means less fearmongering petulant bitch babies running around telling us all how much trouble we’re all in if we don’t pick their brand of piece of shit candidate.

Democrats love to scream about being for the middle class…until they’re in control of everything, while the middle class is getting bent over. Then it becomes “Why is the middle class complaining about being bent over? Can’t they see there is bigger things at stake than their puny little lives????”
 
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