I think there is a slightly greater than 50% probability of more than 6 votes for trump, but that a 50/50 shot that no single opinion commands a majority of five votes.
Having taken a quick spin thru the cert petition, some random thoughts on some of the main arguments cited/foreshadowed in the petition:
1. Individual voters lack standing to bring this type of proceeding — honestly individual voters probably should not be able to enforce this. And via a civil action bench trial before an elected state court judge no less. I suspect 1 and 2 are going to merge together and there may be five votes between them. As some of the justices are fond of noting, most constitutional disputes eventually boil down to “who decides?” And I’m pretty sure the answer’s not going to be private litigants or even federal or state judges.
2. No state court jurisdiction/reserved for congress. I think this will be a big theme, and is a little different from the “due process” line of argument that I don’t think much of (since even a state court bench trial is a fair bit of process). If it lies with congress, which I think it does in their ability to recognize electors, the due process will be what congress says it is. And, bonus, what congress decides will be an unreviewable political question.
3. Not an officer - the more intriguing question is, if 1/2 are a majority, will they address anything else? If they do, I actually think this argument has some legs, given (1) text doesn’t reference president, a strange omission given descending order of the textual listing, (2) officer interpreted limited in appointment clause, and (3) “democracy canon” of sorts in favor of letting voters pick their president.
4. Different oath - this sounds like a real loser and embarrassingly so. (“Support” for officers v “preserve protect and defend” for president)
5. Need for conviction - I tend to think it’s a loser (engaged in v convicted of) but not clear cut given criminal insurrection offense predated constitutional amendment by just a few years.
6. Not engaged in insurrection. Hard call, I don’t think they get to the issue. But the clear original meaning obviously Was the civil war, and 1/6 (whatever it was) was fairly arguably not that, and again, if you’re going to dq a lead candidate for president it ought to be a high standard. But again if they say anything and the state has won the other issues, it’ll be a remand for further consideration in light of standards, guidance, etc.
Will be interesting to see if this or aca draws more eyeballs to scotus blog on opinion day.