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SotaHawk87

SotaHawk87

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Jan 3, 2015
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I feel like it's said every year but this has to be a new level of soft.. Georgia Tech at 13-9 (5-5) and RPI of 71 currently projected to be in.. of course a ton of work to do but things could start getting weird in a good way if Iowa finds a way to win their next 2 or 4 or 5..
 
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This is what I've been preaching for several weeks. The teams aren't well distributed this year and there are a lot more teams with weak resumes that normal this year. A few breaks at the end of the year and things will get interesting for this young team.
 
ESPN loves to talk about how many predicted Georgia Tech was supposed to be the worst power five team in the nation but have had 4 or 5 top 15 wins.

Iowa would still have to win a bunch of games down the stretch and win the correct games against the conferences top teams. It's possible but still a stretch.
 
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For sure still a stretch and very unlikely. However, for me this team wasn't even going to be in the discussion this year. Would be fun to play in some very meaningful games at the end of February! The opportunity for RPI atop 25 wins is out there! Too bad Indiana doesn't carry any weight anymore..
 
We can basically only lose two more regular season games which is going to be very tough. However I will be optimistic until it's mathematically impossible. What's February and March if you can't look forward to dancing?
 
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Losing two more games (wi and md) lands us in RPI 65 going into the BTT. In that scenario we have two decent road wins. Unlikely though.

Alternative and extremely hopeful scenario- the committee looks at the fact that two close losses (ND and Omaha) were without Cook. If you drop those two games from the calculation (committee doesn't do this but it will give you an idea) and run a scenario with three more road losses then our RPI is 61.

In other words, **** that loss to Omaha.
 
I think our guys have one more surprise in store this year... I'm putting Maryland on notice. In my mind, consistency will determine if we can pull it off. Are our "Freshmen-and-a-half" or whatever term DanL is using ready to put in the effort for each game? If they are and they've learned from poor early season efforts, there is no team in the B1G that we CAN'T beat.
 
I get the idea that it's nice to go dancing, but rather than getting killed by a high seed, it might be better to have a solid NIT run and gain some one and done experience.

Frankly that's what I saw as our best senario this year, and would be fine if it played out that way.
 
Hawkfan_08 said:
ESPN loves to talk about how many predicted Georgia Tech was supposed to be the worst power five team in the nation but have had 4 or 5 top 15 wins.

Iowa would still have to win a bunch of games down the stretch and win the correct games against the conferences top teams. It's possible but still a stretch.
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Man, if we could have pulled out that Maryland game, we'd be sniffing bubble for sure. As for "good" wins, we've got Purdue and maybe Michigan and that's about it at this point.
 
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StormHawk42 said:
UNI and ISU winning would certainly help. As well as Purdue.

I think we need a win at Wisconsin or Maryland to really make a push.
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I guess I forgot to include ISU in our good wins. Probably because they looked like hot garbage against us, lol.

I guess I need to cheer for them to beat Kansas today. :eek:
 
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StormHawk42 said:
UNI and ISU winning would certainly help. As well as Purdue.

I think we need a win at Wisconsin or Maryland to really make a push.
Click to expand...

Probably a better shot at Maryland. The Badgers are pretty rock solid, unless they have an awful shooting night
 
L. Wade Childress said:
Losing two more games (wi and md) lands us in RPI 65 going into the BTT. In that scenario we have two decent road wins. Unlikely though.

Alternative and extremely hopeful scenario- the committee looks at the fact that two close losses (ND and Omaha) were without Cook. If you drop those two games from the calculation (committee doesn't do this but it will give you an idea) and run a scenario with three more road losses then our RPI is 61.

In other words, **** that loss to Omaha.
Click to expand...

Any 2 loss scenario here on out looks like it puts Iowa outside the bubble
 
Bubble is soft due to the tops teams not getting upset and no mid majors can take spots. Just the champion and maybe 1 other team. Other seasons No way Iowa has a chance to get in.

Also don't see to many upsets in NCAA
 
SotaHawk87 said:
I feel like it's said every year but this has to be a new level of soft.. Georgia Tech at 13-9 (5-5) and RPI of 71 currently projected to be in.. of course a ton of work to do but things could start getting weird in a good way if Iowa finds a way to win their next 2 or 4 or 5..
Click to expand...

Iowa will have to be more consistent than they've been from this point forward, but if they are, they have a fighter's chance of making it. If not, they'll have to pull off a "miracle" and win the B1G Tourney.
 
I would be happy if the Hawks could win 2 or more games in the Big 10 tournament. I can't remember the last time that happened. Alford era, I think.
 
5-3 down the stretch to finish 10-8 and 6th. Then at least 2 wins in the BTT
 
There is an outside shot at a 6-2 finish, one tourney win, then lose. That scenario is a 9-3 finish, 11-7 B1G, 20-13 overall. If it happens, pretty likely in.
 
L. Wade Childress said:
Losing two more games (wi and md) lands us in RPI 65 going into the BTT. In that scenario we have two decent road wins. Unlikely though.

Alternative and extremely hopeful scenario- the committee looks at the fact that two close losses (ND and Omaha) were without Cook. If you drop those two games from the calculation (committee doesn't do this but it will give you an idea) and run a scenario with three more road losses then our RPI is 61.

In other words, **** that loss to Omaha.
Click to expand...

They are still in the RPI top 200. So its a bad loss, but not a devastating loss. The reason our RPI is so bad is because we have 6 teams in our non-conf with RPI's 300+!
 
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DavenportHawk8 said:
They are still in the RPI top 200. So its a bad loss, but not a devastating loss. The reason our RPI is so bad is because we have 6 teams in our non-conf with RPI's 300+!
Click to expand...

It's pretty remarkable that we continue to have so many opponents that are bottom of the barrel rpi teams. We played plenty of top tier teams in the non-conference, but we failed to win any of those games except ISU and the number of garbage teams essentially wiped out what would have been a decent non-conference schedule. How hard is it to schedule 4 or 5 top 100 teams and then fill in the rest that are between 150 and 250? sure, you are trying to project how good teams will be, but scheduling multiple teams from the weakest conferences in the country should be eliminated going forward, especially as our roster matures.

I don't think 10 B1G wins and 2 in the BTT gets us in. Think it will require 11 and 2 in the conference tourney.
 
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C/Seahawk said:
It's pretty remarkable that we continue to have so many opponents that are bottom of the barrel rpi teams. We played plenty of top tier teams in the non-conference, but we failed to win any of those games except ISU and the number of garbage teams essentially wiped out what would have been a decent non-conference schedule. How hard is it to schedule 4 or 5 top 100 teams and then fill in the rest that are between 150 and 250? sure, you are trying to project how good teams will be, but scheduling multiple teams from the weakest conferences in the country should be eliminated going forward, especially as our roster matures.

I don't think 10 B1G wins and 2 in the BTT gets us in. Think it will require 11 and 2 in the conference tourney.
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As we have discussed a million times, it is very hard. Everyone wants to play these teams. We only have two teams over 300. You understand that you don't know a teams exact RPI when putting together the schedule, right? Plus, two of ours were dictated my our MTE.

There is also a strong argument that had we played more 150-250 teams that we would have a few more losses.
 
L. Wade Childress said:
As we have discussed a million times, it is very hard. Everyone wants to play these teams. We only have two teams over 300. You understand that you don't know a teams exact RPI when putting together the schedule, right? Plus, two of ours were dictated my our MTE.

There is also a strong argument that had we played more 150-250 teams that we would have a few more losses.
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Sorry, I don't buy the argument is so incredibly difficult to play no more than a couple bottom of the barrel teams. We consistently play a half dozen every year and that is about 3 or 4 too many. You've apparently bought barta and ferentzs scheduling philosophies hook line and sinker.
 
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We aren't going to be dancing this year. We are going to have to get hot just to make the NIT's. I will be very happy with that.
 
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It's more about avoiding MEAC and SWAC teams.. if Iowa would have scheduled Penn, High Point, and UC Davis their RPI would be 19 spots better..
 
C/Seahawk said:
Sorry, I don't buy the argument is so incredibly difficult to play no more than a couple bottom of the barrel teams. We consistently play a half dozen every year and that is about 3 or 4 too many. You've apparently bought barta and ferentzs scheduling philosophies hook line and sinker.
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This is absurd. If we had won the games were favored to win, we would be in.

In your dream world we would have scheduled ourselves out of the tournament by 12/31 with likely multiple RPI 150+ losses at home.
 
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relishingwinning18 said:
Rpi would still be to low. Have to get 21 wins to get rpi back in 50s. Unless the committee would throw out uno loss because of cooks absence.
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The committee is likely to discount the RPI this year as its a metric that is fast falling in popularity and probably on its way out the door completely when it comes to at large berths and seeding.
 
L. Wade Childress said:
Losing two more games (wi and md) lands us in RPI 65 going into the BTT. In that scenario we have two decent road wins. Unlikely though.

Alternative and extremely hopeful scenario- the committee looks at the fact that two close losses (ND and Omaha) were without Cook. If you drop those two games from the calculation (committee doesn't do this but it will give you an idea) and run a scenario with three more road losses then our RPI is 61.

In other words, **** that loss to Omaha.
Click to expand...
However, doesn't the committee look at injuries, i.e., who didn't play in bad losses (like Cook vs Omaha)?
 
Hans81 said:
However, doesn't the committee look at injuries, i.e., who didn't play in bad losses (like Cook vs Omaha)?
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That would be fantastic and yes. We still need a couple road wins. But we likely beat ND and Omaha with Cook so let's hope to get in a close enough position.
 
Iowa's best wins are:
ISU
Purdue
Michigan


Bad losses:
UNO
@ILL
@NEBBIE

So they are basically even right now in terms of good W/L's

What's killing Iowa is that UNI is having a down year and also the fact they played 5 teams over RPI 300.

If they finish:
5-2 (Bubble team, needs 1 BTT win and possible last 4 in)
4-3 (Off the bubble, need to get to Semi's of BTT to make last 4 in)
3-4 (Need to win the BTT)

There are chances there for the W's, but they have to win on the road to do it.
 
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