The Bubble

[C/Seahawk]

This is absurd. If we had won the games were favored to win, we would be in.

In your dream world we would have scheduled ourselves out of the tournament by 12/31 with likely multiple RPI 150+ losses at home.

Look, its hardly absurd to suggest that we eliminate several of the absolutely bottom of the barrel teams that annually visit Carver Hawkeye. Kennasaw St, Savannah St, Texas Rio Grande, Stetson, Deleware St., etc. First, they are awful as it relates to the RPI and second they offer absolutely no appeal and the attendance reflects that. We should be scheduling more games with teams from the MVC, MTN West, Summit, Ivy, Ohio Valley, etc. while avoiding the absolute bottom of the barrel. Sure, you have a couple each year, but you shouldn't be playing more than a handful of 300+ teams which we seem to do annually. Its similar to Iowa football regularly scheduling 1AA teams...it simply shouldn't happen with regularity but Barta somehow has convinced Iowa fans its unavoidable and I simply don't buy it.

thx

 

[David1979]

I feel like it's said every year but this has to be a new level of soft.. Georgia Tech at 13-9 (5-5) and RPI of 71 currently projected to be in.. of course a ton of work to do but things could start getting weird in a good way if Iowa finds a way to win their next 2 or 4 or 5..

That wouldn't happen. The problem is paying attention to the bracket predictions. Most are horrible at it.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

It is still soft even after this weekend. There are no real good "bubble" teams out there. The conferences you have to watch out for at the Conference USA, Mountain West, and others.

ACC will get 9
A-10 will get 3
American will get 2/3
Big 12 will get 6
Big Ten will get 6
Pac 12 will get 5
Big East will get 4
SEC will get 4/5
WCC will get 2
Mountain West 1 possibly 2?
Missouri Valley 1 possibly 2?
Colonial could get 2


So there is a lot of basketball to be played yet. I think there are some smaller conferences that have 2 solid teams. Hope for some upsets and get their RPI's to drop so they don't take an "at large bid".

 

[srams21]

Iowa's best wins are:
ISU
Purdue
Michigan


Bad losses:
UNO
@ILL
@NEBBIE

So they are basically even right now in terms of good W/L's

What's killing Iowa is that UNI is having a down year and also the fact they played 5 teams over RPI 300.

If they finish:
5-2 (Bubble team, needs 1 BTT win and possible last 4 in)
4-3 (Off the bubble, need to get to Semi's of BTT to make last 4 in)
3-4 (Need to win the BTT)

There are chances there for the W's, but they have to win on the road to do it.

Road losses to Nebraska and Illinois are not "bad" losses at all. They are both RPI top 100 teams. However, had we won both those games we would be in much better shape.

We are lacking road wins and overall quality wins. We can still make the tourney but the margin for error is very very slim. A road win over Maryland or Wisconsin would be a big help.

 

[NorthCentralHawk]

I'm feeling a little less optimistic this year over other years with regard to there being a probable path into the Dance other than a BTT championship. Whether I look at a "prediction" site that tries to look at how they think everyone's schedule will play out until Selection Sunday or one of the "if they picked right now" sources, they all seem to have Iowa about 20-25 teams away from the right side of the bubble.

Even with a few weeks to go, that seems like a long ways to climb. Personally, I think they can get into the bubble conversation with 20 wins (wrong side, though), maybe squeak in with 21 wins total, and are a lock with anything above that.

Feels like a pretty tall order, but keeping fingers solidly crossed and screaming until my throat's sore at all remaining home games!! Should be fun, no matter what, but I'd take a NCAA appearance for sure - these guys are fun to watch, more nights than not.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Clemson 13-9 3-7 ACC now in Lunardis field..

 

[papabeef]

Iowa's best wins are:
ISU
Purdue
Michigan


Bad losses:
UNO
@ILL
@NEBBIE

So they are basically even right now in terms of good W/L's

What's killing Iowa is that UNI is having a down year and also the fact they played 5 teams over RPI 300.

If they finish:
5-2 (Bubble team, needs 1 BTT win and possible last 4 in)
4-3 (Off the bubble, need to get to Semi's of BTT to make last 4 in)
3-4 (Need to win the BTT)

There are chances there for the W's, but they have to win on the road to do it.

still to early to call nebbie a bad loss, probably but need to play 4 or 5 more games

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Lunardi keeps tweeting about this being one of the worst bubble groups in memory. If we play with urgency, we know we can play with anyone. Gotta get the results and let's see where we end up.

 

[The Sleeping Dog]

The coaches knew what they had when this schedule was built. The Iowa non con schedule would have been more than adequate had we licked Omaha and split the other two losses. The coaches knew this team would rely heavily on freshmen.

An improvement to the schedule is a different story. I have long advocated trying to lock into a long term home/home rivalry schedule with some other team that would merit more attention than BTN2Go or other "streaming options".

Certainly Marquette, St. Louis, De Paul, Tulsa come to mind as good opponents, we'd finish no worse than 5-5 over a decade (probably), get some ESPN or Fox Sports TV love (probably) appear on TV in good recruiting areas where we have little current presence. It raises the profile, gives a nice win or as little damage as possible from loss.

 

[Underscore2]

Iowa doesn't have any bad losses according to this. 2 quality wins.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_187_Men.html

Omaha is 12-11 and not listed as a bad loss.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Omaha is higher than Oklahoma for RPI.. what's killing Iowa is their amount of games against RPI 300+ teams..