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The real cause of rapidly rising housing costs:

torbee

HB King
Gold Member
Antiquated zoning laws not being updated to accommodate population growth.

This is a good and informative read:

CALIFORNIA ISN’T SPECIAL​

No one wants “California-style” housing prices. But the state’s policies are not unique.
By Jerusalem Demsas

California is used to living rent free in all of our heads, and to ignoring anti-left barbs from right-wing politicians. Lately, though, pro-housing reformers have used California as an epithet to reference its utterly failed housing policy—and that’s much harder to shrug off. The typical California home is valued at more than $728,000; the average apartment rents for $3,313 in San Francisco, and $2,781 in Los Angeles.

In Montana, home prices have more than doubled in the past nine years, spurring alarm from lawmakers. Now Republican leadership in the state is pushing to make housing easier and cheaper to build by legalizing duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes in cities, and by forcing cities to “allocate space to house population growth.” The Frontier Institute, which supports these efforts, has warned of a “California-style” crisis in the making. “If we don’t want Montana to become like California, we must address California-Style zoning regulations before it’s too late,” the Frontier Institute cautioned, arguing in support of Governor Greg Gianforte’s proposed bills.

I’ve seen this framing in other states as well. One Nashville advocate, pointing approvingly to Montana’s proposed reforms, wrote on Twitter, “we do not want [Tennessee] to have California-Style zoning either.” Even Californians are getting in on the hate: “If Arizona wants California-style local control and segregationist zoning, it’ll get California-style housing prices and homelessness, simple as,” tweeted a political-science professor at UC Riverside.

What’s strange to me about this rhetorical trend is the underlying suggestion that California is somehow unique in its approach to housing policy. It isn’t.

In blue and red localities across the country, researchers find a “California-style” preference for single-family homes, hostility to density and renters, a tendency to segregate types of development (industrial, commercial, and residential), and a default toward delaying or blocking the construction of new homes, whether affordable or market-rate.

The Frontier Institute itself acknowledges that “much like L.A., a vast majority of Kalispell, Whitefish and Columbia Falls are reserved only for expensive single-family homes.” And as The New York Times documented in 2019, single-family zoning is “an American ideal.” At the time, 84 percent of Charlotte, North Caroline, was zoned solely for detached single-family homes, as was 85 percent of Sandy Springs, Georgia; 81 percent of Seattle; 89 percent of Arlington, Texas; and 79 percent of Chicago.

As researchers at Wharton have ascertained, California localities don’t even top the list of places with the most stringent land-use regulations. That distinction belongs to communities in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Now that remote work is redistributing workers to cities and suburbs across the country, California prices don’t seem so unthinkable elsewhere. To avoid that fate, states must build enough to meet demand. Whether they will is up for debate. In North Carolina, a 2021 bill to legalize small multifamily buildings in certain communities buckled under opposition from town leaders. In Maine, a similar effort to legalize denser housing types was watered down after opposition from municipal leaders. And in Virginia, an attempt to legalize duplexes in more of the state didn’t even make it past committee, as legislators balked at challenging local control.

Terrible housing policy isn’t California’s legacy; it’s America’s.


How did so many American municipalities end up with “California-style” policies? As the economist William Fischel writes, zoning was not “the product of circumstances in one particular place” but a response to “popular demand,” which arose largely out of changes in transportation technology. The invention of streetcars in the late 1800s enabled onetime city residents who could afford the fares to move to newly constructed suburbs. These streetcar suburbanites did not adopt zoning, however, until they worried that they could be followed. Trucks made it possible for industrial and commercial activities to develop farther away from rails and ports, and buses freed less well-off workers from having to live close to their place of employment.


As Fischel tells it, terrified that their residential communities would be overrun with “noxious” uses, homeowners and developers began demanding zoning regulations that would protect them from people and buildings that they thought would reduce the value of their homes. By the end of 1916, just eight cities had zoning. From 1926 to 1936, 1,246 municipalities adopted zoning measures. During the 1920s, the federal government even supplied a model zoning-enabling law for states, for the purposes of “protect[ing] homeowners from commercial and industrial intrusions.” By 1930, 35 states had adopted legislation built on these recommendations.

What has made California the worst in the country for housing is not uniquely bad policy but population growth running up against generically bad policy. If both San Francisco and a small, economically disadvantaged town in Mississippi enact a home-building moratorium, that’s going to hurt a lot more in the former, where millions of people want to live, than in the latter, where just a handful of people do. Exclusionary zoning in an underpopulated town is like a home-security system for an abandoned shack.

Population growth spurred California’s economic growth. But as people flocked to the state, cities and suburbs refused to change the built environment to accommodate these newcomers. From 2010 to 2020, the state permitted (not built—just permitted) one home for every 2.54 jobs it added. In this, it did lead the country. Utah had the next-worst ratio: It permitted one home for every 1.57 jobs.
 
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perhaps i'm one of the unfashionable folks who actually likes the sterile suburb style with (functional) zoning. i don't have to be in the middle of everything amongst a shitton of people, it's quite alright with me to have to drive a little bit to experience excitement. this attitude might appear anti-environment but i'm pretty sure transportation is going to become super clean and cheap in very short order. and there is no shortage of land in the usa either, so i honestly don't see a big deal. prices have always periodically ballooned only to pop. and hot-zones (like SF) will always existt -- for a state like montana to fear it might transform into sf is ridiculous.
btw, this is just a commoner's pov, i have zero problem if we want to build new cities very differently, just don't want everything upended in my neck of the woods.
 
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perhaps i'm one of the unfashionable folks who actually likes the sterile suburb style with (functional) zoning. i don't have to be in the middle of everything amongst a shitton of people, it's quite alright with me to have to drive a little bit to experience excitement. this attitude might appear anti-environment but i'm pretty sure transportation is going to become super clean and cheap in very short order. and there is no shortage of land in the usa either, so i honestly don't see a big deal. prices have always periodically ballooned only to pop. and hot-zones (like SF) will always existt -- for a state like montana to fear it might transform into sf is ridiculous.
btw, this is just a commoner's pov, i have zero problem if we want to build new cities very differently, just don't want everything upended in my neck of the woods.
The only problem with having that attitude is when 5 million other people within the same 20 square miles demand the same thing, you have out-of-control housing prices.
 
perhaps i'm one of the unfashionable folks who actually likes the sterile suburb style with (functional) zoning. i don't have to be in the middle of everything amongst a shitton of people, it's quite alright with me to have to drive a little bit to experience excitement. this attitude might appear anti-environment but i'm pretty sure transportation is going to become super clean and cheap in very short order. and there is no shortage of land in the usa either, so i honestly don't see a big deal. prices have always periodically ballooned only to pop. and hot-zones (like SF) will always existt -- for a state like montana to fear it might transform into sf is ridiculous.
btw, this is just a commoner's pov, i have zero problem if we want to build new cities very differently, just don't want everything upended in my neck of the woods.
Go to the montana subreddit. It's 80% people claiming to not be able to afford housing anywhere in the state. That's because the builders and the wealthy set the zoning laws.
 
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I think the big question on this one is whether or not this should be a state/local problem to solve or whether there needs to be federal intervention. I think some locations may be on top of it, but most aren't.
 
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I think the big question on this one is whether or not this should be a state/local problem to solve or whether there needs to be federal intervention. I think some locations may be on top of it, but most aren't.
Federal government has NO place in this discussion, we have this thing called the 10 amendment.
 
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Federal government has NO place in this discussion, we have this thing called the 10 amendment.
We have law precluding any fed involvement? It'd be tricky to implement, no doubt. There would have to be lots of qualifying factors for restrictions to be implemented in a given location.
 
Regardless of one’s position on this it is a thought provoking article. My little subdivision sits in the middle of condos on one side, apartments on another and townhouses under construction in between. I don’t understand why anyone would be opposed to such a mix.
 
Regardless of one’s position on this it is a thought provoking article. My little subdivision sits in the middle of condos on one side, apartments on another and townhouses under construction in between. I don’t understand why anyone would be opposed to such a mix.
The neighborhood I moved from was standard upper-middle-class, big lawn beige boring suburbia with nothing but houses and every couple miles or so a school and/or park. School system was fantastic, though.

But when the SBW and I became empty nesters, we almost immediately moved to an older, established neighborhood that still had a fair amount of retail and restaurant/bar establishments sprinkled throughout. Also far, far more interesting and diverse architecture/housing types.

Best decision we ever made.

In my mind, the IDEAL American neighborhood is mixed-use residential with low-intensity retail/commercial.

I think it definitely makes sense to keep industrial and big box/high-intensity commercial out of housing areas. But mile-after-mile of McMansions with nothing else allowed is jut bad housing policy IMO.
 
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Federal government has NO place in this discussion, we have this thing called the 10 amendment.
15 minute cities are a big push by the WEF (world economic forum). These are the corporate elite who think they know what is best for the world and the USA.

What they really want is control. Do you trust Bill Gates to tell you how you should live? Do you want corporate elites telling you when and where you can drive? Or that you can't eat beef?

This all sounds conspiracy theorist ish, but the goals of the WEF are out there. look them up.


 
15 minute cities are a big push by the WEF (world economic forum). These are the corporate elite who think they know what is best for the world and the USA.

What they really want is control. Do you trust Bill Gates to tell you how you should live? Do you want corporate elites telling you when and where you can drive? Or that you can't eat beef?

This all sounds conspiracy theorist ish, but the goals of the WEF are out there. look them up.



We're going to need a lot more fast food places...
 
I was laughed at for stating this a few years ago on here, but rings true

The other and maybe even bigger problem is that unlike prior generations, nobody is willing to compromise on city/state
 
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In the case of Montana, they have a 100% legitimate gripe. So does Boise, Salt Lake City and pretty much anywhere in Arizona. Zoning laws are broken in many places, but the real issue here is while California created the mess they have, employers were also paying people elevated levels of income to attempt to offset the never-ending rising costs there and real estate values are ludicrous. What none of these other places were prepared for (or could be) was the absolute mass exodus of thousands of people from California flooding these areas all at once with incomes that are likely double or more than what a similar job pays locally. Housing inventory cannot be built fast enough to accommodate the demand, infrastructure is taxed and so on. So, what you're seeing is a rapid demographic shift to where the "old" are being pushed out because they cannot compete with those migrating in with hoards of cash. I cannot blame the folks fleeing, but it absolutely sucks in any of these places if you weren't already a homeowner.
 
I've been reading a bit about this lately, it's part of a larger overarching problem that we've become a "build-nothing society" and it has major negative implications.

Housing and zoning is a big part of it, but it goes for things across the board. The type of projects that would be required to build the infrastructure for a green or carbon neutral society would be laughable to imagine actually getting built. People wax on about public transit or light rail, but we can barely get a single station built. The cost of projects dwarfs that of other societies by factors of 10+.

We literally can't get anything built in this country, leading to outdated if not dangerous infrastructure, housing crunches, poorly optimized communities, inefficient use of energy, very vulnerable energy and communication grids. When you start looking into it, its really depressing and frightening. Virtually nowhere else in the developed world is still relying so much on outdated, inefficient and vulnerable infrastructure.

And nothing is likely to change it because its a perfect storm of interests across the political spectrum. All are to blame...
- regulators
- environmentalists
- capitalists
- anticapitalists
- NIMBYs
- property rights advocates
- labor movement
...and it goes on and on...

The person that would be fine stripping some of the environmental protections that prevent building is also the same person that that would fight to the supreme court against forcing a landowner to sell their property for a project. The people that advocate for more pedestrian- and public transportation-friendly urban planning are also the generally the people that don't want any project completed without 47 environmental studies, a guarantee of union labor, and 40% of the project earmarked for minority-owned vendors.

And nobody of any political stripe wants ANYTHING built anywhere near their property that has the conceivable potential to reduce their property values by a single %.

It's a massive problem and literally everyone has their fingers dirty in it.
 
15 minute cities are a big push by the WEF (world economic forum). These are the corporate elite who think they know what is best for the world and the USA.

What they really want is control. Do you trust Bill Gates to tell you how you should live? Do you want corporate elites telling you when and where you can drive? Or that you can't eat beef?

This all sounds conspiracy theorist ish, but the goals of the WEF are out there. look them up.


Here, you left this on the sidewalk:

aluminium-foil-hat-isolated-on-white-background-symbol-for-conspiracy-theory-and-mind-control.jpg
 
The last recession delayed building in many areas - Florida was one of them.
What I’m seeing in NoFla is infill construction as well as enormous new home projects with communities of 500+ homes. And as usual FDOT is not keeping up with new roads to unclog traffic. There’s new funding over the last couple of years but FDOT has ALWAYS been way behind in planning and execution.
 
Regardless of one’s position on this it is a thought provoking article. My little subdivision sits in the middle of condos on one side, apartments on another and townhouses under construction in between. I don’t understand why anyone would be opposed to such a mix.
We developed a plan for a suburban community here in Nashville that included modest multi-family/townhomes in commercial areas. People lost their minds, and yelled at us for two solid hours at a Planning Commission meeting.
 
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The last recession delayed building in many areas - Florida was one of them.
What I’m seeing in NoFla is infill construction as well as enormous new home projects with communities of 500+ homes. And as usual FDOT is not keeping up with new roads to unclog traffic. There’s new funding over the last couple of years but FDOT has ALWAYS been way behind in planning and execution.

Yeah, I really think that a lot of the discussion lately of the population exodus from blue states to red states especially Florida, Georgia, etc overlooks a simple fact that in a country that doesn't build much of anything anymore, the one thing that does get built with a vengeance is cookie cutter single family housing in suburbs in southern red states, and the supporting strip malls.

There's a lot of that which is actually pretty lousy...like you said, traffic. Sprawl, terrible urban planning, emissions from commuting, homogenized character-less communities, the list goes on and on. I don't think they "get it right", they just are willing and able to sell out to home developers (but almost never apartments - no riff raff!).

But at the end of the day, people are going to go where they can buy a damn house, and maybe for under $500k. Obviously, you can make the case that building is just trailing the population growth, but I suspect a lot of it is the other way around.
 
We developed a plan for a suburban community here in Nashville that included modest multi-family/townhomes in commercial areas. People lost their minds, and yelled at us for two solid hours at a Planning Commission meeting.

This is a great part of that substack I linked...

For decades now, Americans have told ourselves that we’re the richest nation on Earth, and that as long as we had the political will to write big checks, we could do anything we wanted. But that was never really true, was it? The inflation that followed the pandemic should have been a wake-up call — we had all this excess cash, and we started spending it on physical goods, and mostly what happened was just that the price of the physical goods went up. And so R.I.P. to all that cash. From meaningless numbers on a spreadsheet you came, and to meaningless numbers on a spreadsheet you shall return.

What matters is not how big America’s spreadsheet numbers are, but how much physical stuff we get. And yet as a society we’ve decided to award people with stasis instead of stuff. In many dysfunctional societies, the government’s guarantee of economic inclusion comes in the form of a specific physical good — usually, cheap fuel. In the United States, the in-kind subsidy we provide our people is the option to keep their world from changing.

If you’re one of the roughly 2/3 of Americans who owns a home, you can raise your wealth — at least on paper — by going to local government meetings and arguing to restrict the local housing supply. But perhaps just as importantly, you can preserve the built environment around you in exactly the form you’re used to. You can keep your streets quiet and uncrowded. You can preserve your open space, your big lawn, and your scenic views. You can keep your neighborhood free of any poor people who might live in nearby apartments or ride a train to your area. You have the option to keep your area free of anything you don’t want, for any reason.

This is a form of subsidy from the government to the people of America. It seems like a costless subsidy, because it doesn’t involve writing checks to people. But the costs are real, and Americans pay the costs. They pay them in the higher tax bills that citizens pay to fund infrastructure. They pay them in the increased prices businesses have to charge to make up for higher land costs. They pay them in higher rents. They pay those costs in more expensive electricity and increased carbon emissions. They pay them in the lower wages that workers earn because their cities can’t build sufficient housing near to the areas of greatest economic opportunity. They pay them in lower productivity because cities can’t grow big enough. They pay those costs in lost wages and incomes from disinvestment, when companies decide that America’s obstacles to land development make it a bad country to build a factory in. And eventually they pay the cost of a weak country that doesn’t have the economic strength to stand up to rivals like China.

Physical stasis seems cheap, but it’s an incredibly expensive way to subsidize the lifestyles of Americans. And it seems that whenever our real incomes flatlined, as they did in the 70s and again in 1999-2015, we increased this stasis subsidy to compensate, making it even harder to build anything — a booby prize for an electorate mired in stagnation, which ended up exacerbating that very stagnation. The 70s were when the embrace of stasis began, but the 2010s are when it reached its apotheosis.
 
Yeah, I really think that a lot of the discussion lately of the population exodus from blue states to red states especially Florida, Georgia, etc overlooks a simple fact that in a country that doesn't build much of anything anymore, the one thing that does get built with a vengeance is cookie cutter single family housing in suburbs in southern red states, and the supporting strip malls.

There's a lot of that which is actually pretty lousy...like you said, traffic. Sprawl, terrible urban planning, emissions from commuting, homogenized character-less communities, the list goes on and on. I don't think they "get it right", they just are willing and able to sell out to home developers (but almost never apartments - no riff raff!).

But at the end of the day, people are going to go where they can buy a damn house, and maybe for under $500k. Obviously, you can make the case that building is just trailing the population growth, but I suspect a lot of it is the other way around.
Part of the problem is that many municipalities have built their finances on "continuous growth."

Any development that will bring in new taxpayers and more property taxes is going to get greenlit, no matter how poorly designed and thought out it is.
 
Part of the problem is that many municipalities have built their finances on "continuous growth."

Any development that will bring in new taxpayers and more property taxes is going to get greenlit, no matter how poorly designed and thought out it is.

Yep, and it incentivizes only the most possible tax revenue per acre, which usually means big expensive houses on tiny lots, for the wealthy. No mix of housing levels, etc.

Hell, I really thought the trend toward townhomes were a strong development in the idea of more mixed housing communities, but around here, after the first wave of townhomes were enthusiastically snapped up in the $200-300k range, all future townhouse developments have been $900k plus luxury townhouses.

It will end up being very nice for me, who got into one at the early end, and will make an absolute killing, but it really sucks big time overall.
 
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This is a great part of that substack I linked...

For decades now, Americans have told ourselves that we’re the richest nation on Earth, and that as long as we had the political will to write big checks, we could do anything we wanted. But that was never really true, was it? The inflation that followed the pandemic should have been a wake-up call — we had all this excess cash, and we started spending it on physical goods, and mostly what happened was just that the price of the physical goods went up. And so R.I.P. to all that cash. From meaningless numbers on a spreadsheet you came, and to meaningless numbers on a spreadsheet you shall return.

What matters is not how big America’s spreadsheet numbers are, but how much physical stuff we get. And yet as a society we’ve decided to award people with stasis instead of stuff. In many dysfunctional societies, the government’s guarantee of economic inclusion comes in the form of a specific physical good — usually, cheap fuel. In the United States, the in-kind subsidy we provide our people is the option to keep their world from changing.

If you’re one of the roughly 2/3 of Americans who owns a home, you can raise your wealth — at least on paper — by going to local government meetings and arguing to restrict the local housing supply. But perhaps just as importantly, you can preserve the built environment around you in exactly the form you’re used to. You can keep your streets quiet and uncrowded. You can preserve your open space, your big lawn, and your scenic views. You can keep your neighborhood free of any poor people who might live in nearby apartments or ride a train to your area. You have the option to keep your area free of anything you don’t want, for any reason.

This is a form of subsidy from the government to the people of America. It seems like a costless subsidy, because it doesn’t involve writing checks to people. But the costs are real, and Americans pay the costs. They pay them in the higher tax bills that citizens pay to fund infrastructure. They pay them in the increased prices businesses have to charge to make up for higher land costs. They pay them in higher rents. They pay those costs in more expensive electricity and increased carbon emissions. They pay them in the lower wages that workers earn because their cities can’t build sufficient housing near to the areas of greatest economic opportunity. They pay them in lower productivity because cities can’t grow big enough. They pay those costs in lost wages and incomes from disinvestment, when companies decide that America’s obstacles to land development make it a bad country to build a factory in. And eventually they pay the cost of a weak country that doesn’t have the economic strength to stand up to rivals like China.

Physical stasis seems cheap, but it’s an incredibly expensive way to subsidize the lifestyles of Americans. And it seems that whenever our real incomes flatlined, as they did in the 70s and again in 1999-2015, we increased this stasis subsidy to compensate, making it even harder to build anything — a booby prize for an electorate mired in stagnation, which ended up exacerbating that very stagnation. The 70s were when the embrace of stasis began, but the 2010s are when it reached its apotheosis.
This is spot on. If I walk, bike or ride transit to the grocery store, I'm still paying for the huge parking lot, the cost of which is passed on in the form of higher grocery prices. I'm still paying for road maintenance through higher property and sales taxes.
 
I’m a member of our city’s Planning Advisory Committee and it’s amazing the stuff that developers try to push through.
Good for you! More people should get involved with LOCAL politics.

I know I type plenty of crap on here about what the folks in D.C. and other states are doing, but at the end of the day, what your LOCAL City Council or school board or county commission is doing is likely going to have far greater impact on your life than the ones getting all the press.
 
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Federal government has NO place in this discussion, we have this thing called the 10 amendment.

States are the most inept organizations on earth. They realized early of the need to federalize.
 
In the case of Montana, they have a 100% legitimate gripe. So does Boise, Salt Lake City and pretty much anywhere in Arizona. Zoning laws are broken in many places, but the real issue here is while California created the mess they have, employers were also paying people elevated levels of income to attempt to offset the never-ending rising costs there and real estate values are ludicrous. What none of these other places were prepared for (or could be) was the absolute mass exodus of thousands of people from California flooding these areas all at once with incomes that are likely double or more than what a similar job pays locally. Housing inventory cannot be built fast enough to accommodate the demand, infrastructure is taxed and so on. So, what you're seeing is a rapid demographic shift to where the "old" are being pushed out because they cannot compete with those migrating in with hoards of cash. I cannot blame the folks fleeing, but it absolutely sucks in any of these places if you weren't already a homeowner.
Thats a big issue in Portland/Seattle.
 
I have ZERO sympathy for the housing issues out West. There are not enough natural resources (water) to support the populations in those cities. It's supply and demand, if it is too expensive to live out there then move, there is plenty of affordable housing, already built infrastructure, and natural resources (water) available in the Rust Belt states that have been vacated over the decades.

This is America, you are free to move about the country. Find a place that is affordable to live and raise a family.
 
I have ZERO sympathy for the housing issues out West. There are not enough natural resources (water) to support the populations in those cities. It's supply and demand, if it is too expensive to live out there then move, there is plenty of affordable housing, already built infrastructure, and natural resources (water) available in the Rust Belt states that have been vacated over the decades.

This is America, you are free to move about the country. Find a place that is affordable to live and raise a family.

Phoenix and Vegas should not have any more growth. They dont have the Water. I believe Metro Phoenix has put a moratorium on new construction.
 
perhaps i'm one of the unfashionable folks who actually likes the sterile suburb style with (functional) zoning. i don't have to be in the middle of everything amongst a shitton of people, it's quite alright with me to have to drive a little bit to experience excitement. this attitude might appear anti-environment but i'm pretty sure transportation is going to become super clean and cheap in very short order. and there is no shortage of land in the usa either, so i honestly don't see a big deal. prices have always periodically ballooned only to pop. and hot-zones (like SF) will always existt -- for a state like montana to fear it might transform into sf is ridiculous.
btw, this is just a commoner's pov, i have zero problem if we want to build new cities very differently, just don't want everything upended in my neck of the woods.
Go take a look at the MLS listings for Boseman, MT. It's shocking.
 
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Antiquated zoning laws not being updated to accommodate population growth.

This is a good and informative read:

CALIFORNIA ISN’T SPECIAL​

No one wants “California-style” housing prices. But the state’s policies are not unique.
By Jerusalem Demsas

California is used to living rent free in all of our heads, and to ignoring anti-left barbs from right-wing politicians. Lately, though, pro-housing reformers have used California as an epithet to reference its utterly failed housing policy—and that’s much harder to shrug off. The typical California home is valued at more than $728,000; the average apartment rents for $3,313 in San Francisco, and $2,781 in Los Angeles.

In Montana, home prices have more than doubled in the past nine years, spurring alarm from lawmakers. Now Republican leadership in the state is pushing to make housing easier and cheaper to build by legalizing duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes in cities, and by forcing cities to “allocate space to house population growth.” The Frontier Institute, which supports these efforts, has warned of a “California-style” crisis in the making. “If we don’t want Montana to become like California, we must address California-Style zoning regulations before it’s too late,” the Frontier Institute cautioned, arguing in support of Governor Greg Gianforte’s proposed bills.

I’ve seen this framing in other states as well. One Nashville advocate, pointing approvingly to Montana’s proposed reforms, wrote on Twitter, “we do not want [Tennessee] to have California-Style zoning either.” Even Californians are getting in on the hate: “If Arizona wants California-style local control and segregationist zoning, it’ll get California-style housing prices and homelessness, simple as,” tweeted a political-science professor at UC Riverside.

What’s strange to me about this rhetorical trend is the underlying suggestion that California is somehow unique in its approach to housing policy. It isn’t.

In blue and red localities across the country, researchers find a “California-style” preference for single-family homes, hostility to density and renters, a tendency to segregate types of development (industrial, commercial, and residential), and a default toward delaying or blocking the construction of new homes, whether affordable or market-rate.

The Frontier Institute itself acknowledges that “much like L.A., a vast majority of Kalispell, Whitefish and Columbia Falls are reserved only for expensive single-family homes.” And as The New York Times documented in 2019, single-family zoning is “an American ideal.” At the time, 84 percent of Charlotte, North Caroline, was zoned solely for detached single-family homes, as was 85 percent of Sandy Springs, Georgia; 81 percent of Seattle; 89 percent of Arlington, Texas; and 79 percent of Chicago.

As researchers at Wharton have ascertained, California localities don’t even top the list of places with the most stringent land-use regulations. That distinction belongs to communities in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Now that remote work is redistributing workers to cities and suburbs across the country, California prices don’t seem so unthinkable elsewhere. To avoid that fate, states must build enough to meet demand. Whether they will is up for debate. In North Carolina, a 2021 bill to legalize small multifamily buildings in certain communities buckled under opposition from town leaders. In Maine, a similar effort to legalize denser housing types was watered down after opposition from municipal leaders. And in Virginia, an attempt to legalize duplexes in more of the state didn’t even make it past committee, as legislators balked at challenging local control.

Terrible housing policy isn’t California’s legacy; it’s America’s.


How did so many American municipalities end up with “California-style” policies? As the economist William Fischel writes, zoning was not “the product of circumstances in one particular place” but a response to “popular demand,” which arose largely out of changes in transportation technology. The invention of streetcars in the late 1800s enabled onetime city residents who could afford the fares to move to newly constructed suburbs. These streetcar suburbanites did not adopt zoning, however, until they worried that they could be followed. Trucks made it possible for industrial and commercial activities to develop farther away from rails and ports, and buses freed less well-off workers from having to live close to their place of employment.


As Fischel tells it, terrified that their residential communities would be overrun with “noxious” uses, homeowners and developers began demanding zoning regulations that would protect them from people and buildings that they thought would reduce the value of their homes. By the end of 1916, just eight cities had zoning. From 1926 to 1936, 1,246 municipalities adopted zoning measures. During the 1920s, the federal government even supplied a model zoning-enabling law for states, for the purposes of “protect[ing] homeowners from commercial and industrial intrusions.” By 1930, 35 states had adopted legislation built on these recommendations.

What has made California the worst in the country for housing is not uniquely bad policy but population growth running up against generically bad policy. If both San Francisco and a small, economically disadvantaged town in Mississippi enact a home-building moratorium, that’s going to hurt a lot more in the former, where millions of people want to live, than in the latter, where just a handful of people do. Exclusionary zoning in an underpopulated town is like a home-security system for an abandoned shack.

Population growth spurred California’s economic growth. But as people flocked to the state, cities and suburbs refused to change the built environment to accommodate these newcomers. From 2010 to 2020, the state permitted (not built—just permitted) one home for every 2.54 jobs it added. In this, it did lead the country. Utah had the next-worst ratio: It permitted one home for every 1.57 jobs.

USA is going to have to shift its economy from a constant "real estate expansion mode", into "sustainability and innovation" mode.

We aren't short of "land" in America; but we will be short of the resources needed to continue expansion. There's only so much water out in the West (and even the aquifers that the midwest relies on, are being drawn down faster than expected, e.g. Ogallala Aquifer)

When those resources/buffers run out, bad things happen.
 
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