This -2.5 and lack of movement…

[cmhawks99]

I don’t gamble anymore as I think it’s stupid. I don’t care if you do nor will I preach to you, but outside of some nominal card games like 31 or occasionally pitch, I’m not betting on sports or 21 or Texas holdem, etc…

With that framing out-of-the-way, I do know a little bit about sports gambling, and I’ve always found it somewhat interesting watching line movement or the lack thereof.

I think most of you understand the concept of setting a line in the hopes of getting equal money and getting the juice.

But that’s not all Vegas does, sometimes they put out phony lines because they truly do expect team A to beat team B and often times they do not move the line even though money is heavy on one side.

I find it interesting that line has appeared not to move, does anyone have any thoughts on that or have you dug in to see where the money is?

 

[WSC72]

Having zero knowledge of betting, what do you think this means

 

[cmhawks99]

Having zero knowledge of betting, what do you think this means

Well, I’m not sure it applies to this particular situation, because it’s not an outlandish line… But I would’ve expected some movement towards UCONN. That’s why I’m asking the question?

I’d like some more seasoned gamblers to give me their impression?

 

[iowahawkeyes1982]

On DK 73% of the bets are on Iowa. With the line not moving, that leads me to believe the big money is on UConn.

 

[cmhawks99]

On DK 73% of the bets are on Iowa. With the line not moving, that leads me to believe the big money is on UConn.

Yes I’d agree

 

[BlameIt]

My money is on UConn.

Hate to say

 

[ryanhawk33]

My money is on UConn.

Hate to say

Say goodbye to it. Might as well have donated to the swarm instead of a sportsbook.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

On DK 73% of the bets are on Iowa. With the line not moving, that leads me to believe the big money is on UConn.

This. In spades.


See what I did there?

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

FWIW, the SC line has gone from 11.5 down to 11. And while the Iowa line has stayed at 3 (on Caesar’s) UConn on the money line was +135 and is now 126.

 

[MitchLL]

I'd assume Vegas is getting bets pretty close to 50/50, which is what they crave.

No need to move "the line" in that scenario.

 

[cmhawks99]

I'd assume Vegas is getting bets pretty close to 50/50, which is what they crave.

No need to move "the line" in that scenario.

Thanks Mitch, that is what I was wanting to know. It’s probably a good spread. I know there are a lot of Talking Heads, picking UCONN, but I was not surprised by the line. In fact, you might say I expected it to be -2-3, Iowa.

I used to be able to recite a few examples of games where the line was so out of whack you, said to yourself that’s easy money, betting on team B hypothetically.

But the line never moved (i/e: raking in more money on B) when in reality team A goes on to win in a walk over..

It happens…

My guess is this is a legit line and I’m not trying to be smart here. There are probably 100 guys on this board that know a shit ton more about it than me…

Thanks for your insight.

 

[LukaDuka]

You would think logically the larger population base (& bigger money) in the N.East would favor UConn & bet on them, versus lil ol' Iowa.

 

[BlameIt]

Say goodbye to it. Might as well have donated to the swarm instead of a sportsbook.

Time will tell.

I'm using the money Holy Cross made me for covering +37.5. Left it in my account. Seems as good as time as any to give it back.

 

[iowahawkeyes1982]

You would think logically the larger population base (& bigger money) in the N.East would favor UConn & bet on them, versus lil ol' Iowa.

Nah, most people bet on who they want to win.

 

[SI_NYC]

Thanks Mitch, that is what I was wanting to know. It’s probably a good spread. I know there are a lot of Talking Heads, picking UCONN, but I was not surprised by the line. In fact, you might say I expected it to be -2-3, Iowa.

I used to be able to recite a few examples of games where the line was so out of whack you, said to yourself that’s easy money, betting on team B hypothetically.

But the line never moved (i/e: raking in more money on B) when in reality team A goes on to win in a walk over..

It happens…

My guess is this is a legit line and I’m not trying to be smart here. There are probably 100 guys on this board that know a shit ton more about it than me…

Thanks for your insight.

No one knows who will win. Stop with the fallacy someone knows. They don’t. They are making educated bets, just like you.

 

[goodbyebobby]

Time will tell.

I'm using the money Holy Cross made me for covering +37.5. Left it in my account. Seems as good as time as any to give it back.

I'm still playing on house money I won off Frosty's last game at Nebraska.

 

[eyesofhawk]

I don’t gamble anymore as I think it’s stupid. I don’t care if you do nor will I preach to you, but outside of some nominal card games like 31 or occasionally pitch, I’m not betting on sports or 21 or Texas holdem, etc…

With that framing out-of-the-way, I do know a little bit about sports gambling, and I’ve always found it somewhat interesting watching line movement or the lack thereof.

I think most of you understand the concept of setting a line in the hopes of getting equal money and getting the juice.

But that’s not all Vegas does, sometimes they put out phony lines because they truly do expect team A to beat team B and often times they do not move the line even though money is heavy on one side.

I find it interesting that line has appeared not to move, does anyone have any thoughts on that or have you dug in to see where the money is?

On DK 73% of the bets are on Iowa. With the line not moving, that leads me to believe the big money is on UConn.

I've seen as high as 91% of the bets on Iowa.

One-sided action combined with lack of line movement can be a huge red flag in sports betting. I can tell you in the NFL, if one team has 80% to 90% of the action, and the line doesn't move, or even moves slightly in the opposite direction as expected, it's a profitable spot to bet the unpopular side. As CM has noted, sometimes Vegas has a good feel for a game and is comfortable, by clean or dirty means, that they are on the right side of the action. That's why the line won't move, is because Vegas is almost inviting the action on that side.

This dynamic seems to hold most true though in the NFL. Other sports probably aren't bringing in big enough money on their one sided games to require moving the line much. Or as 1982 has mentioned, the least popular side might actually have the larger bets.

The Iowa/UCONN game is an interesting spot. Viewership has exploded, but are there large amounts of money being bet on this game? That's really the question. And my best guess is no. Most of the 91% of bets being placed on Iowa are very small bets placed by the public. Certainly most of the country is rooting for CC and the small recreational bets are going to reflect this. Also I'm guessing most sharps aren't getting heavily involved in the game, as they aren't in the habit of betting women's basketball in that way. There may be a few sharps placing large bets on UCONN in attempts to fade the public and catch a few points of value on the traditionally stronger program. But mostly, the lack of line movement is probably due to the Iowa action mostly being smaller bets

 

[chuck285]

If you want to take a flyer bet on S. CAROLINA and U CONN....Then take the 4 point teaser. Vegas is usually really close on spreads....$10 bet wins $19 and $100 wins $190
But remember I lose money every year...

 

[eyesofhawk]

If you want to take a flyer bet on S. CAROLINA and U CONN....Then take the 4 point teaser. Vegas is usually really close on spreads....$10 bet wins $19 and $100 wins $190
But remember I lose money every year...

Not trying to criticize, Chuck. But since you layed it out there, I would keep teaser bets to the NFL. And specifically, spreads that tease through the numbers 3 and 7(+1.5, +2, and +2.5 up, and -7.5, -8, -8.5 down, as the standard teaser adjusts by 6 points). This is called the Wong teaser, by way of Standford Wong's book about 22 years ago. The books have adjusted with heavier juice in these spots, but -115 or better still gives a profitable edge for a two teamer, or +160 for a three teamer.

This strategy is viable given the fact that, as Chuck has stated, Vegas is very accurate in their lines. But the theory only has an edge in NFL, because the scoring system of 3 and 6(7) allows for only so many possibilities of outcomes. Also the collective bargaining of the NFL allows for a good deal of parity in a league full of professionals that makes for close games and less variance of outcomes. Still, this NFL only theory must contain the key numbers that tease through 3 and 7/7 and 3, and loses it's profitability at -120 for a two teamer. All other football teasers and teasers of all sports do not have a profitable edge and, are in fact, losing bets. That's because adjusting the line by six points in football and 4 points in basketball comes at a price that requires each leg in the teaser to win over about 73% of the time (depending on the juice)👍

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

My money is on UConn.

Hate to say

I’m normally so REAL as an Iowa fan that even though I’m right 90% of the time (whether it be against the Hawks) people get pissed at me with their blind “Hawkeye fandom”.

That being said.

Being neutral.

Even I can’t pick against the Hawks against a lesser tier opponent, the UConn Huskies.

Not only that, it feels like a blowout.

Not only give the points but give the points & then some!

Feeling Hawks between 7-10 points. Current day lesser programs (UConn), are nothing more than current day lesser programs (UConn).

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

I'm still playing on house money I won off Frosty's last game at Nebraska.

You too?!?!

 

[Packer54]

If you want to take a flyer bet on S. CAROLINA and U CONN....Then take the 4 point teaser. Vegas is usually really close on spreads....$10 bet wins $19 and $100 wins $190
But remember I lose money every year...

They don’t build all those fancy casinos out there because people are winning left and right.

 

[ICWestfan]

Not trying to criticize, Chuck. But since you layed it out there, I would keep teaser bets to the NFL. And specifically, spreads that tease through the numbers 3 and 7(+1.5, +2, and +2.5 up, and -7.5, -8, -8.5 down, as the standard teaser adjusts by 6 points). This is called the Wong teaser, by way of Standford Wong's book about 22 years ago. The books have adjusted with heavier juice in these spots, but -115 or better still gives a profitable edge for a two teamer, or +160 for a three teamer.

This strategy is viable given the fact that, as Chuck has stated, Vegas is very accurate in their lines. But the theory only has an edge in NFL, because the scoring system of 3 and 6(7) allows for only so many possibilities of outcomes. Also the collective bargaining of the NFL allows for a good deal of parity in a league full of professionals that makes for close games and less variance of outcomes. Still, this NFL only theory must contain the key numbers that tease through 3 and 7/7 and 3, and loses it's profitability at -120 for a two teamer. All other football teasers and teasers of all sports do not have a profitable edge and, are in fact, losing bets. That's because adjusting the line by six points in football and 4 points in basketball comes at a price that requires each leg in the teaser to win over about 73% of the time (depending on the juice)👍

Sorry to go OT here, but since you brought it up, how will the new Kick Off ruler affect outcomes?

 

[Cydkar]

Say goodbye to it. Might as well have donated to the swarm instead of a sportsbook.

Then you should be able to retire since you know what's going to happen.

 

[goodbyebobby]

You too?!?!

Easy money.....

Conversely, I screwed up not making a wager when Nevada was up 17 on Dayton a couple of weeks ago......

 

[Dauminator]

I've heard Iowa lines are inflated in general due to CC, which likely complicates betting logic.

 

[EagleHawk]

I put $10 on Colorado, $50 on LSU. Going to put some on UConn tonight and if Iowa wins, I'm betting on S Carolina in the final. As an Iowa fan, I expect this ride will end in a loss, so at least I will have something to be happy about. It's not going to break my budget if Iowa wins so it's easy money to lose offset by the joy of a national title.

 

[Georgia_Hawk]

I know there are a lot of Talking Heads, picking UCONN, but I was not surprised by the line.

Yep, same as it ever was

 

[cmhawks99]

Yep, same as it ever was

Brilliant…and what an awesome, strange but awesome song!!!

 

[kwik44]

Pouring it on Iowa simply because I don't think they want to hold Clark from a title game.

 

[eyesofhawk]

Currently 79% of the tickets and 86% of the money is on Iowa. And the spread has moved accordingly to Iowa-3.5.

Probably would have moved even more, but again, these are almost all small bets from the public

 

[cmhawks99]

Currently 79% of the tickets and 86% of the money is on Iowa. And the spread has moved accordingly to Iowa-3.5.

Probably would have moved even more, but again, these are almost all small bets from the public

There you go… That’s what I wanted to know….!

 

[Jimmy McGill]

I think a lot of you are reading too much into this. It is going to be a close game. If it goes over 5 either way it will be because late free throws.